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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2015 11:56:45 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 17, 2015 12:14:22 GMT -5
Are they trying to get someone who will make BJ Upton look productive by comparison?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2015 12:22:17 GMT -5
Braves are clearly thinking 2017, have been all off season.
PeteAbe said 17 Sox position players on the field a week ahead of the report date. Pretty impressive.
Players I've seen mentioned:
Panda Hanley Brentz Betts Swihart Vazquez Xander
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Post by Guidas on Feb 17, 2015 19:54:55 GMT -5
If it's strong then swing a deal for Kimbrel. Not like the Braves will need an elite closer in the next two years. Otherwise it's one-way strong.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 17, 2015 22:39:43 GMT -5
Kimbrel should have been traded already. It seems like Atlanta thinks of him as a building block, which doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence in their rebuilding efforts.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2015 23:53:09 GMT -5
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Post by libertine on Feb 18, 2015 0:57:32 GMT -5
I'd prefer Teheran over Kimbrel also. There is our a potential long term #1 starter. He, along with Freeman and probably more so than Kimbrel, is the one player the Braves are probably planning to build around.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 1:01:18 GMT -5
Teheran wouldn't be cheap but how much value is his 2015 and 2016 to the Braves ?. . . . Baseball America story on Ramos which starts (it didn't come up as a free view from here): BOSTON—The timing couldn’t have been worse. Outfielder Henry Ramos appeared to be blossoming at Double-A Portland in 2014. Through 48 games, the 22-year-old switch-hitter batted .326/.368/.431, while showing enough progress Baseball America @baseballamerica · 9h 9 hours ago Ramos Looks To Make Up For Lost Opportunity ow.ly/2UNq45 Henry is a clear wild card here. When he got injured he was looking more and more comfortable everyday both in the field and at the plate.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,930
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Post by nomar on Feb 18, 2015 2:05:18 GMT -5
Teheran would cost a lot more than Bradley. It won't happen. Same goes for Shelby Miller.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 18, 2015 8:24:17 GMT -5
Kimbrel should have been traded already. It seems like Atlanta thinks of him as a building block, which doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence in their rebuilding efforts. My thought - and I'm possibly being overly generous here - is that they think the return will be better for him in season. Almost every team has a bullpen that looks good enough on paper in February. In July, once reality has set in, you can get Eduardo Rodriguez for 20 innings of Andrew Miller.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 8:57:49 GMT -5
Kimbrel should have been traded already. It seems like Atlanta thinks of him as a building block, which doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence in their rebuilding efforts. My thought - and I'm possibly being overly generous here - is that they think the return will be better for him in season. Almost every team has a bullpen that looks good enough on paper in February. In July, once reality has set in, you can get Eduardo Rodriguez for 20 innings of Andrew Miller. Miller wasn't a 30+ million dollar commitment. If he gets injured or is ineffective, he'll be as movable as Papelbon. . . . Grain of salt article, projected value comparison of Mookie and Kris Bryant. I'm surprised there was that much difference in their projected fWARs. www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/2/18/8056143/comparing-the-potential-career-trajectories-of-mookie-betts-kris-bryant
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2015 9:49:48 GMT -5
Kimbrel should have been traded already. It seems like Atlanta thinks of him as a building block, which doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence in their rebuilding efforts. My thought - and I'm possibly being overly generous here - is that they think the return will be better for him in season. Almost every team has a bullpen that looks good enough on paper in February. In July, once reality has set in, you can get Eduardo Rodriguez for 20 innings of Andrew Miller. I don't know if that's quite the going rate. It just happened to be that time. And there aren't nearly as many teams that would get in on a Kimbrel trade because of the contract, so the bidding war might not be as furious.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 18, 2015 11:08:32 GMT -5
My thought - and I'm possibly being overly generous here - is that they think the return will be better for him in season. Almost every team has a bullpen that looks good enough on paper in February. In July, once reality has set in, you can get Eduardo Rodriguez for 20 innings of Andrew Miller. I don't know if that's quite the going rate. It just happened to be that time. And there aren't nearly as many teams that would get in on a Kimbrel trade because of the contract, so the bidding war might not be as furious. 3/34 really isn't that much money by today's standards, and it's a relative bargain versus market value for a reliever of his caliber.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2015 11:18:32 GMT -5
I don't know if that's quite the going rate. It just happened to be that time. And there aren't nearly as many teams that would get in on a Kimbrel trade because of the contract, so the bidding war might not be as furious. 3/34 really isn't that much money by today's standards, and it's a relative bargain versus market value for a reliever of his caliber. The Orioles won't get in on that. The A's probably wouldn't. Neither would the Pirates and likely a handful of other teams like the Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, etc. I didn't say it's a lot of money, but it's more money than all 30 teams would gladly take on for a playoff push. I mean we wouldn't be getting Rodriguez for Miller if he had 3/$34 left.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 18, 2015 11:20:13 GMT -5
Speier in the Boston Globe (link): "Neuroscouting may give Red Sox a heads-up on prospects’ potential" Neat article on something we've heard about, but this sheds quite a bit more detail on it. Excerpt below: I'd be interested to see the other extreme (from an actual performance standpoint): The results of a Middlebrooks/Brentz type on these tests.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2015 11:29:38 GMT -5
Speier in the Boston Globe (link): "Neuroscouting may give Red Sox a heads-up on prospects’ potential" Neat article on something we've heard about, but this sheds quite a bit more detail on it. Excerpt below: I'd be interested to see the other extreme (from an actual performance standpoint): The results of a Middlebrooks/Brentz type on these tests. I'd love to be able to take some of those tests to see how I'd do.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2015 13:58:40 GMT -5
3/34 really isn't that much money by today's standards, and it's a relative bargain versus market value for a reliever of his caliber. The Orioles won't get in on that. The A's probably wouldn't. Neither would the Pirates and likely a handful of other teams like the Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, etc. I didn't say it's a lot of money, but it's more money than all 30 teams would gladly take on for a playoff push. I mean we wouldn't be getting Rodriguez for Miller if he had 3/$34 left. The Orioles and Cardinals have $100m+ payrolls and aren't exactly small market teams, while Oakland spent $10m on a reliever (Jim Johnson) and the Rays spent real money on far inferior relievers (2/$12m for Grant Balfour, traded for Heath Bell and his $6.5m salary) as recently as last year. By the trade deadline, there will only be about $3m of Kimbrel's 2015 salary left to pick up, which even the smallest market teams can fit into their budget. His salaries grow to $11m and $13m in 2016-17, but that's not all that much money for one of the two or three best relievers in baseball during the prime of his career, and a small market team can always flip him again in the offseason if he doesn't fit into next year's budget. Yes, he would have more trade value if he was making less money, but even at his current salaries, Kimbrel has plenty of trade value and would fetch legitimate prospect value in return (read: a prospect package at least as valuable as the one Miller returned). Even by the WAR-type systems that many think underrate late-innings relievers (e.g., because leverage is worth more than those systems suggest, because elite closers are more valuable in the playoffs, etc.), he's been worth roughly 2.5 to 3 wins per year over the last few years. Getting a guy like that for 3/$34m provides plenty of surplus value, especially since he's young (turns 27 this year) and has not had any real health issues. ADD: a few key differences between Papelbon and Kimbrel-- Kimbrel is five or so years younger than Papelbon was when he started getting shopped, is significantly better (Papelbon's peripherals have declined in recent years, while Kimbrel is still dropping sub-2 SIERAs), is paid less ($11m AAV versus $13m), has not seen his velo decline (Kimbrel's velo has actually increased over the past few years, per PITCHf/x), and there has been salary inflation in the interim. The two situations aren't really comparable.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2015 14:23:57 GMT -5
I understand the Orioles and Cardinals aren't exactly small market teams, but they also aren't getting involved in signing guys like Robertson or Miller either. There are better places for them to spend that money, especially when they are continually letting good players go because they can't afford them. I mean the Orioles didn't even try to re-sign Miller as far as I know. I just can't see small(er) market teams giving up as much for a guy that would require a big chunk of their payrolls. A lot can happen to a relief pitcher in 3 years.
I'd have to really think hard about giving up Rodriguez for Kimbrel right now.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 18, 2015 14:42:31 GMT -5
Kimbrel is younger, cheaper, and better than Miller.
You really think Miller for 20 innings is a better buy than Kimbrel, who is baseball's best reliever, on a reasonable contract? I disagree really strongly.
EDIT for clarification - in terms of total dollars, Kimbrel will be cheaper by midseason. Per year, he makes more than Miller.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2015 14:54:53 GMT -5
Kimbrel is younger, cheaper, and better than Miller. You really think Miller for 20 innings is a better buy than Kimbrel, who is baseball's best reliever, on a reasonable contract? Itro disagree really strongly. Not at all. I just think Miller as a rental is obtainable by any team in the league which would theoretically drive up the bidding. That's what? A million dollar expenditure? Kimbrel would have fewer teams bidding. What it comes down to is that I was shocked we got Rodriguez for Miller and think that Atlanta would have a tough time matching that return for Kimbrel.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2015 15:48:29 GMT -5
This idea that only the big market teams would be able to take on Kimbrel's contract just seems wrong. Like I mentioned, whatever team trades for Kimbrel midseason does not have to keep him past 2015. They can flip Kimbrel again during the offseason if he's too expensive in 2016-17 (something the Athletics did with Samardzija this past offseason). Acquiring Kimbrel at the end of July means taking on all of $3m in salary, which is very unlikely to be prohibitive for even the smallest market teams.
Plus, even if you're right and Kimbrel's future salary scares off some teams, all it takes is two or three teams in on a guy to drive his price up, and there will certainly be plenty of teams who can afford Kimbrel who will need bullpen help this summer.
Finally, remember that the Rodriguez that the Orioles traded in July is not the same Rodriguez that we know and love today. His stuff improved greatly during the last two months of the season and he was not as highly-regarded a prospect at the deadline as he is today. If the Orioles knew he was going to rebound as much as he did, they probably wouldn't have traded him for Miller.
ADD: despite that last point, I'd probably trade Rodriguez for Kimbrel right now and not have to think too much about it. Especially since he'd be even more useful on a team that doesn't use him only for save situations.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 18, 2015 15:51:15 GMT -5
This idea that only the big market teams would be able to take on Kimbrel's contract just seems wrong. Like I mentioned, whatever team trades for Kimbrel midseason does not have to keep him past 2015. They can flip Kimbrel again during the offseason if he's too expensive in 2016-17 (something the Athletics did with Samardzija this past offseason). Acquiring Kimbrel at the end of July means taking on all of $3m in salary, which is very unlikely to be prohibitive for even the smallest market teams. Plus, even if you're right and Kimbrel's future salary scares off some teams, all it takes is two or three teams in on a guy to drive his price up, and there will certainly be plenty of teams who can afford Kimbrel who will need bullpen help this summer. Finally, remember that the Rodriguez that the Orioles traded in July is not the same Rodriguez that we know and love today. His stuff improved greatly during the last two months of the season and he was not as highly-regarded a prospect at the deadline as he is today. If the Orioles knew he was going to rebound as much as he did, they probably wouldn't have traded him for Miller.
ADD: despite that last point, I'd probably trade Rodriguez for Kimbrel right now and not have to think too much about it. It's only one source, but Kiley McDaniel refutes that theory: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2015 15:52:59 GMT -5
This idea that only the big market teams would be able to take on Kimbrel's contract just seems wrong. Like I mentioned, whatever team trades for Kimbrel midseason does not have to keep him past 2015. They can flip Kimbrel again during the offseason if he's too expensive in 2016-17 (something the Athletics did with Samardzija this past offseason). Acquiring Kimbrel at the end of July means taking on all of $3m in salary, which is very unlikely to be prohibitive for even the smallest market teams. Plus, even if you're right and Kimbrel's future salary scares off some teams, all it takes is two or three teams in on a guy to drive his price up, and there will certainly be plenty of teams who can afford Kimbrel who will need bullpen help this summer. Finally, remember that the Rodriguez that the Orioles traded in July is not the same Rodriguez that we know and love today. His stuff improved greatly during the last two months of the season and he was not as highly-regarded a prospect at the deadline as he is today. If the Orioles knew he was going to rebound as much as he did, they probably wouldn't have traded him for Miller.
ADD: despite that last point, I'd probably trade Rodriguez for Kimbrel right now and not have to think too much about it. It's only one source, but Kiley McDaniel refutes that theory: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/It's a fair point, but two+ months of improved stuff carries a lot more weight than two weeks of improved stuff, and Rodriguez circa January 2015 is still a much better prospect than Rodriguez circa July 2014.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 16:31:56 GMT -5
It's a fair point, but two+ months of improved stuff carries a lot more weight than two weeks of improved stuff, and Rodriguez circa January 2015 is still a much better prospect than Rodriguez circa July 2014. To a trained scout watching a prospect that was projected to be good, had an injury then was displaying tools indicative of the previous stature, no. To an untrained eye, a stats guy or a prospect follower, yes. I wonder how the Sox make their decisions. It's not like the Orioles didn't know and it's not like as if the Tigers offer was vastly inferior. LOL, I nominate Mujica at the trade deadline, a rental reliever.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2015 16:41:36 GMT -5
This idea that only the big market teams would be able to take on Kimbrel's contract just seems wrong. Like I mentioned, whatever team trades for Kimbrel midseason does not have to keep him past 2015. They can flip Kimbrel again during the offseason if he's too expensive in 2016-17 (something the Athletics did with Samardzija this past offseason). Acquiring Kimbrel at the end of July means taking on all of $3m in salary, which is very unlikely to be prohibitive for even the smallest market teams. Plus, even if you're right and Kimbrel's future salary scares off some teams, all it takes is two or three teams in on a guy to drive his price up, and there will certainly be plenty of teams who can afford Kimbrel who will need bullpen help this summer. Finally, remember that the Rodriguez that the Orioles traded in July is not the same Rodriguez that we know and love today. His stuff improved greatly during the last two months of the season and he was not as highly-regarded a prospect at the deadline as he is today. If the Orioles knew he was going to rebound as much as he did, they probably wouldn't have traded him for Miller. ADD: despite that last point, I'd probably trade Rodriguez for Kimbrel right now and not have to think too much about it. Especially since he'd be even more useful on a team that doesn't use him only for save situations. Just for kicks, Eric Gagne was 28, the last time he was good. Elite relievers seem to fall apart in their late 20s frequently - Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Francisco Rodriguez off the top of my head. Most of them rely on the kind of velocity that does not last to be as elite as they are. They either lose that or get hurt. Now if there was a pitcher I'd sign for that kind of money, it would be Kimbrel, but we can afford that without any harm if he falls apart and we have to eat the entire contract. But I don't think I'm trading a potential solid to better starter for any relief pitcher.
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