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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by jmei on Aug 4, 2014 11:45:15 GMT -5
I still believe in Middlebrooks FWIW. But if Farrell continues to platoon him you'll never know. Why not? If he starts hitting well versus LHP, he'll start get more time versus RHP. If he can't hit LHP, he's probably not a major-league-caliber hitter. I understand that it'd be ideal to give every fringy player in the organization full-time major league reps to evaluate their potential for 2015 and beyond. I'd love to be able to give Middlebrooks and Holt and Betts and Hassan and Cecchini and all the pitchers full playing time to see what they can do. But now that they've trimmed the fat on the roster, there's basically noone who is getting useless reps. Every starter is a guy who should contribute to the 2015 team in one way or another. If you give Middlebrooks full-time at bats at 3B, it crowds out Holt, who I'm just as curious about evaluating.
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Post by jdb on Aug 4, 2014 11:57:20 GMT -5
Agree I think WMBs needs some confidence. Play him vs lefties for now and then vs some righties down the road. Also I agree with Guidas I'm not giving up on him.
I also think the next two months are huge for JBJ. As good as his glove is he needs to at least get to the point where he isn't an automatic out. Maybe we go into next year with a platoon with Vic or Mookie. I still think the front office sees Mookie as an OFer.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 12:10:40 GMT -5
I still believe in Middlebrooks FWIW. But if Farrell continues to platoon him you'll never know. Why not? If he starts hitting well versus LHP, he'll start get more time versus RHP. If he can't hit LHP, he's probably not a major-league-caliber hitter. I understand that it'd be ideal to give every fringy player in the organization full-time major league reps to evaluate their potential for 2015 and beyond. I'd love to be able to give Middlebrooks and Holt and Betts and Hassan and Cecchini and all the pitchers full playing time to see what they can do. But now that they've trimmed the fat on the roster, there's basically noone who is getting useless reps. Every starter is a guy who should contribute to the 2015 team in one way or another. If you give Middlebrooks full-time at bats at 3B, it crowds out Holt, who I'm just as curious about evaluating. Because these guys get into a rhythm, and most players will tell you it's extremely tough to stay sharp when not to playing four or five games a week. To see if he can hit RH pitching better he has to see RH pitching more. It's like anything else that requires rapid stimulus-response/eye hand activity. It's the exact reason why, when they bring up a promising prospect they often send him down if he's not getting regular at bats.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 4, 2014 12:18:08 GMT -5
What is a bit odd is the difference between what Cherington said the plan was for Middlebrooks - i.e. give him extended playing time - and what they actually are doing - giving him virtually no playing time.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 12:21:13 GMT -5
btw, FWIW Middlebrooks 162 game average is .248 with a .296 OBP, .744 OPS and 29 homers
Hey, it's practically the 3rd base identical twin of Yoenis Cespedes! Except Yoenis is awesome because…
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 4, 2014 12:38:20 GMT -5
Cespedes, as its been pointed out repeatedly, has played in one-of-the-worst hitters parks in the AL. He owned a 119 OPS+ at the time of trade (which factors in the playing environment). You are comparing him to a guy who played 1/2 his games at Fenway and has a 100 OPS+ and saying that they have the same line...
They don't. Its been pointed out before.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 4, 2014 12:39:14 GMT -5
btw, FWIW Middlebrooks 162 game average is .248 with a .296 OBP, .744 OPS and 29 homers Hey, it's practically the 3rd base identical twin of Yoenis Cespedes! Except Yoenis is awesome because… Will Middlebrooks 162 game average: .248/.296/.448 for a 100 OPS+ and about 1.5 WAR Yoenis Cespedes 162 game average: .262/.318/.468 for a 118 OPS+ and about 4.0 WAR (b-ref) Calling them identical twins is a bit of a stretch.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 12:43:17 GMT -5
I just gave the 162 game stat line. I am aware of WAR and OPS+. And I am speaking of offense. Those are similar stat lines.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2014 12:45:19 GMT -5
I just gave the 162 game stat line. I am aware of WAR and OPS+. And I am speaking of offense. Those are similar stat lines. They aren't similar at all if you care about park factors.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 4, 2014 12:48:08 GMT -5
btw, FWIW Middlebrooks 162 game average is .248 with a .296 OBP, .744 OPS and 29 homers Hey, it's practically the 3rd base identical twin of Yoenis Cespedes! Except Yoenis is awesome because… .... he a consistent 2-3+ win player. Middlebrooks hasn't put up positive bWAR since 2012. He could still be a serviceable role player, though he's always going to be working on the margins, so sometimes the results won't be pretty. I'd like to give him consistent at-bats the rest of the way, since he needs plate appearances. I'm not concerned with Holt getting in the lineup, and worst case WMB helps our draft position.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 4, 2014 12:55:43 GMT -5
I just gave the 162 game stat line. I am aware of WAR and OPS+. And I am speaking of offense. Those are similar stat lines. OPS+ is offense only. They aren't similar stat lines (unless you are 100% ignoring park factors for unspecified reasons). That's the point.
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Post by jmei on Aug 4, 2014 12:59:52 GMT -5
Why not? If he starts hitting well versus LHP, he'll start get more time versus RHP. If he can't hit LHP, he's probably not a major-league-caliber hitter. I understand that it'd be ideal to give every fringy player in the organization full-time major league reps to evaluate their potential for 2015 and beyond. I'd love to be able to give Middlebrooks and Holt and Betts and Hassan and Cecchini and all the pitchers full playing time to see what they can do. But now that they've trimmed the fat on the roster, there's basically noone who is getting useless reps. Every starter is a guy who should contribute to the 2015 team in one way or another. If you give Middlebrooks full-time at bats at 3B, it crowds out Holt, who I'm just as curious about evaluating. Because these guys get into a rhythm, and most players will tell you it's extremely tough to stay sharp when not to playing four or five games a week. To see if he can hit RH pitching better he has to see RH pitching more. It's like anything else that requires rapid stimulus-response/eye hand activity. It's the exact reason why, when they bring up a promising prospect they often send him down if he's not getting regular at bats. Again, it'd be great if they could get him full-time major league at bats, but the state of the roster is such that he cannot get them without crowding out a guy in Holt who is arguably just as intriguing and just three months older. If Middlebrooks wants full-time starter reps at 3B this year, he'll have to prove he can hit lefties first. Whatever disadvantage comes from getting less-than-full-time reps is more than balanced out by the massive advantage of only hitting versus lefties. If he succeeds in that limited role, he'll undoubtedly get time against righties as well. At this point, it's less about player development than about player evaluation for Middlebrooks. He turns 26 this year and has shown little/no improvement in terms of his pitch recognition. Sure, maybe he still has some upside in him, but it's not enough that he automatically jumps to the front of the line in terms of playing time, even in a lost season. He has to prove he deserves it first.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 4, 2014 13:07:04 GMT -5
Kruk's analysis of Bradley's hitting stance was quite convincing last night, especially with their use of video showing how far behind on the pitches he consistently was. He was hitting much better a few weeks ago. I wonder why he changed his stance. He'll never hit with the stance he has now. Somebody screwed up. I didn't see that, and I can't imagine agreeing with Kruk, but ... I probably agree with Kruk. I haven't liked Bradley's swing basically ever. At one point, he replaced his complicated toe tap thing with a higher leg kick, and he looked more on-time with his load than before, but that didn't last long when he bounced to different mechanics (and, honestly, I don't know enough about swing mechanics to know if that was the right answer anyway). I'm a little nervous that JBJ has pre-swing mechanics that won't work long term, but he never gives the fixes enough time to really take. He's a magnificent defender, so he doesn't have to hit that much to be an adequate player on a team like the Red Sox, but the jury's still out on whether he can meet even that offensive bar ... and he'll certainly need offensive talent around him.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2014 13:12:22 GMT -5
For me, he is moving his hands too much, making his swing way too long. He can do everything else to help his timing, but his hands need to be ready to swing before he decides to swing.
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 4, 2014 13:29:25 GMT -5
I'm curious as to how Boston plans on fixing their OF jam in the offseason. Bradley, Nava, Cespedes, Craig, Victorino, Holt, and Betts.
Personally I'd like to keep Nava for a couple of reasons. 1) He's a damn good player, a good clubhouse guy, and a personal fan favorite of mine. 2) Though it's still average, he's improved his defense pretty significantly (as some here were saying he couldn't do earlier), and provides flexibility w/ 1B, LF, and a (valuable) RF. 3) He's under team control through 2017 as he hits arbitration this offseason.
I also would like to see Holt stick around because a) He's more valuable to us than what he could fetch in a trade, and b) His flexibility is invaluable to this team going forward. With Bogaerts at SS at the start of 2015 (I assume), Holt allows you to leave that necessary back up SS on the bench, you know the light hitting Ciriaco, Punto, Hererra, etc, thus giving you an extra spot in the pen or elsewhere.
Craig is another guy who would be a sell-low this offseason, and can bounce back and produce through 2017, so I don't see it as likely that he gets moved. Unless we're using Cespedes in a package for a big name hitter (cough cough Giancarlo), I believe this team needs his power in 2015. Personally I want to see Cespedes either locked up in the offseason, or traded. Letting him walk in free agency would just be a waste IMO. He'd provide enough value in a trade to warrant dealing him if they weren't interested in him long term. Still, I'm assuming he's re-signed. I see Yoenis' OBP improving as he moves to a friendlier hitters park w/ less foul ball territory and (soon to be) more protection around him in the lineup.
That leaves Bradley, Victorino, and Betts. Regarding Victorino, I like the idea that someone here threw out earlier about negotiating retirement. I don't know how those things work, so I won't pretend that I do, but it would be the best case scenario for Boston. I love watching Vic when he's healthy, but I wouldn't be willing to part with one of the above players for someone who's going to play maybe 60 games sporadically throughout the season.
I was looking forward to seeing Bradley in CF and Betts in RF to start the 2015 season before the trade deadline, but with our acquisitions that looks unlikely. I don't think Ben wants to see 5 recently graduated prospects/rookies in his 2015 opening day lineup after this season has gone. Some people here are on board with seeing Mookie play 3B, but a) I don't think the transition across the diamond is as smooth as some are perceiving, so I'm not overly confident that he'd provide as much value defensively at 3B as he would in the OF, and b) we always need someone with the range to play 82 games in RF at Fenway, and Mookie provides that value.
So one of Bradley/Betts will most likely be dealt in the offseason, but who? I really really want to keep Betts and think he'll grow into a star, but his immense value combined with the outfield jam we have will probably lead to him being the centerpiece of a trade, whether it be for Hamels, Tulo, Cargo, Stanton, or whoever.
So what I expect to see in 2015 is: Holt - LF/CF/RF/etc. Nava - 1B/LF/RF Craig - 1B/LF Cespedes - LF/RF Bradley - CF/RF
What I'd like to see: Holt - Everything Nava - 1B/LF/RF Cespedes - LF/RF Betts - CF/RF Bradley - CF/RF
Under the latter situation, we'd be going the youth route and keeping Bradley's bat in the lineup, so a trade for Tulo (as opposed to an OF) for maybe Vazquez/Swihart, Owens, Marrero, and Ranaudo/Webster would be sweet.
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 4, 2014 13:31:36 GMT -5
For me, he is moving his hands too much, making his swing way too long. He can do everything else to help his timing, but his hands need to be ready to swing before he decides to swing. I also noted what Kruk was saying and completely agreed. I don't think it's the hands, the tap before his swing clearly had his weight out in front which gave him less time to react to the pitch. I hope he finds a way to return to his swing from the previous 3 weeks because I really really liked what I saw.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 14:24:33 GMT -5
I just gave the 162 game stat line. I am aware of WAR and OPS+. And I am speaking of offense. Those are similar stat lines. OPS+ is offense only. They aren't similar stat lines (unless you are 100% ignoring park factors for unspecified reasons). That's the point. Yah. I meant the WAR part. I did ignore park factors because, as the post said, FWIW here are two stat lines of players who look similar by this measure. I think Cespedes is a wait and see. So far what I see through the advanced stat lines is Cody Ross with much better arm and somewhat better wheels. I hated Ross's game but we'll see if Fenway helps him or he's just a Jonny Gomes-style all or nothing swinger. If he posts the stat line jimed14 projected I'll be leading the screams this time to keep him.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 4, 2014 14:54:40 GMT -5
OPS+ is offense only. They aren't similar stat lines (unless you are 100% ignoring park factors for unspecified reasons). That's the point. Yah. I meant the WAR part. I did ignore park factors because, as the post said, FWIW here are two stat lines of players who look similar by this measure. We know what you meant, and can read what you said, but you're being misleading. The rebuttals were to your open-ended ellipsis about Cespedes' worth. And the indignation is to your non-specific rebuke of those rebuttals. I think you're an intelligent, valuable and humorous poster Guidas, but you're clearly being argumentative and evasive here.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 4, 2014 14:58:49 GMT -5
To me, there is NO WAY we can afford our CF batting 220. That position is an important piece of our team. We have had guy like Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury who have been Solid with the bat. Likely, i think Bradley could eventually be traded in a package for a big bat(Stanton)
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2014 15:00:26 GMT -5
To me, there is NO WAY we can afford our CF batting 220. That position is an important piece of our team. We have had guy like Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury who have been Solid with the bat. Likely, i think Bradley could eventually be traded in a package for a big bat(Stanton) Every run saved is equal to every run created.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 4, 2014 15:19:50 GMT -5
JBJ is currently the highest rated defensive CF in baseball, and third overall in the OF, according to fangraphs, and the highest valued defensive player in the AL according to baseball reference.
Savings runs is just as important as scoring, and it appears the Sox now have an offensive plan in at least one of the corners in the OF
If you are going to have a defense over offense position(s) CF seems to be one of the top places to have it. If he hits at all near league average, he could easily be a 3-4 WAR player at minimal cost
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 4, 2014 15:26:36 GMT -5
Bradley has been the best Centerfielder Defensively without question, does this translate into Bradley winning a Gold Glove THIS season?
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Post by okin15 on Aug 4, 2014 15:27:56 GMT -5
Defense also has an added value of being undervalued by the arbitrators, so that you pay less for it in years 3-6. That said, I'm not convinced that the runs saved are quite as high as the numbers represent them to be, and that's for all players across all metrics. I think JBJ needs to hit above at least .220 to be valuable here. He can't just be a black hole.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2014 15:32:59 GMT -5
Bradley has been the best Centerfielder Defensively without question, does this translate into Bradley winning a Gold Glove THIS season? Doesn't matter. That's an award voted on by usually dumb writers. There is no one even close to him IMO.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2014 15:34:47 GMT -5
I agree that Bradley probably needs to either maintain something like a .310 OBP or make the leap to be a .450 SLG player to be valuable in CF, even with his exceptional defense. Fortunately, the Red Sox are in an ideal situation to try to play and try to evaluate Bradley right now. His defense keeps him from being a useless player, and his fly-ball chasing skills are clearly valuable behind a young staff that needs to build it's confidence. He's the exact sort of player who a team out of contention should be giving a long look at.
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