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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2015 11:19:25 GMT -5
Based on Steamer/Fangraphs projections, the Red Sox win more games by making Betts a full-time starter and not giving his PA's away. I'm sorry, but that's the sort of reductive analysis that gets me so worked up. Arguing that Betts should be a full time starter needs to be deeper than "Steamer says so!" And I agree that he should be a full-timer. Yes, the analysis should be deeper, but pretty much all the analysis on these forums should be deeper, and if you're going make a short, conclusory post, you can do a lot worse than citing a set a projections that very smart folks have spent a lot of time trying to perfect and that have empirically performed as well as any other publicly-available projection system. Remember, the real value that projections provide is as a useful shortcut that saves a ton of time and energy. Most of us generally agree on the high-level process of how to project a player-- weigh his recent performance more strongly but consider the entirety of his minor/major league performance, regress the luck-based stats to the (his) mean, account for park/league/aging, etc. But most of us don't have the time or energy to analyze a player in detail like that every time we need to make an offhand reference about his likely 2015 performance, and so the Steamer projections represent a useful shorthand that, at worst, gets you most of the way there for any given player. Considering the time constraints that most of us are under, the alternative is not in-depth analysis, it's something like this, and given that choice, I'm taking the projections every time. That's especially true in this specific situation, when almost all of us agree that Betts is really good and should be a full-time starter. If someone cites a projection and you disagree with that projection, that's the time when you can and should analyze the player in depth. But when everyone roughly agrees on a player's performance, there's not a lot of value-added from that in-depth analysis, and citing the projections is generally good enough.
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Post by suttree on Jan 24, 2015 11:40:17 GMT -5
Looking at the roster I would wager Betts has a greater than 50% shot at being the best player on the team next year.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 24, 2015 13:05:23 GMT -5
I was picking on Steamer in particular. Like baseball players, some projection systems are certainly better than others and I was trying to gauge if Steamer was more Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, or Jonny Gomes. Trying to figure out who the Bill James system is. Jeff Francoeur? Ryan Howard? Will Middlebrooks seems apt.
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2015 14:15:08 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 24, 2015 14:15:20 GMT -5
Looking at the roster I would wager Betts has a greater than 50% shot at being the best player on the team next year. So you're saying even odds on Mookie vs the field for best player on the Sox? I'm definitely taking the field on that bet. Sandoval, Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Castillo ... any of those guys could be better than Mookie next year, and I wouldn't be that surprised on any them. Hell, Mike Napoli could put together a great year next year and be better than Mookie.
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2015 14:45:45 GMT -5
I think I'd take the field over Mookie, but I'd probably take Mookie over any other individual player.
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 24, 2015 14:50:07 GMT -5
Some comments from Red Sox reports and players at the Sox Winter Weekend event today:
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 2h2 hours ago Christian Vazquez says he has lost 7 pounds since end of last season, down to 200. #RedSox
Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 2h2 hours ago Kelly said look out for a healthy, motivated Allen Craig this year. "I hope (the Red Sox) find him the playing time he deserves."
Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 2h2 hours ago Kelly also predicts big things for Allen Craig. They live about 40 miles apart, and Kelly says he’s healthy. “He’s going to dominate"
Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 2h2 hours ago As for him, Kelly jumped on ‘EEI, said he was going to win the Cy Young, then didn’t back away from that in media scrum. That’s his mindset.
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 7m7 minutes ago Difference between this offseason and last for Pedroia: He was able to lift weights. "I was kind of shriveled up. Not anymore" #RedSox
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 7m7 minutes ago Pedroia said he will play in the same style he always has, injuries aside. “I’ll consider it,” he said when asked about not sliding into 1st
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 6m6 minutes ago Pedroia counting on more upper body strength than last year. "Last year, I couldn't grip a dumbell." And now? "You see me." #RedSox
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 3m3 minutes ago Pedroia was asked about how well he’s swinging and said ball is going further. “But I’m no chemist." Physicist you mean? “Whatever."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 24, 2015 14:53:09 GMT -5
Foxwood's mix: Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 19m19 minutes ago Justin Masterson says he's feeling healthy again. Mechanics are straightened out. #SoxWinterWeekend Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 6m6 minutes ago Allen Craig feels totally healthy, not worried about trade rumors or playing time with Red Sox. "It'll work itself out." Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 48m48 minutes ago Rick Porcello not ready for contract extension talk with Red Sox just yet: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/01/rick_porcello_not_ready_for_ex.html#incart_river … Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 1h1 hour ago Brandon Workman said he's still hoping to compete for a spot in the Red Sox starting rotation. Ian Browne ?@ianmbrowne 2h2 hours ago "Yeah, I’m going to win this year. That’s what I told the radio guys. They didn’t believe me – sucks to be them.” -- Joe Kelly '15 #Cy Young Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 2h2 hours ago The compliments keep coming in for Rusney Castillo. Christian Vazquez said Castillo was hitting nothing but liners in Puerto Rico. Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 2h2 hours ago Christian Vazquez says he has lost 7 pounds since end of last season, down to 200. #RedSox
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 24, 2015 14:57:54 GMT -5
Does PECOTA know that Betts won't be playing 2B? A move from 2B to RF is huge. I'm projecting Pedroia and Ramirez to have higher WARP than Betts. Pedroia due to position and Ramirez due to his power.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 24, 2015 16:28:43 GMT -5
I think I'd take the field over Mookie, but I'd probably take Mookie over any other individual player. Maybe ... but there are some close calls there (Pedroia, Ramirez, maybe Pablo) that I might pick over Mookie, and then there's guys like Xander who have a small chance but are still possible. It's a reasonable position to say that Mookie has the best odds of any player, but it's still probably less than a 20% chance. In the end, I might go Ramirez->Mookie->Pedroia in my probability scores, but it's close.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 24, 2015 18:23:20 GMT -5
Some comments from Red Sox reports and players at the Sox Winter Weekend event today: Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 2h2 hours ago Christian Vazquez says he has lost 7 pounds since end of last season, down to 200. #RedSox Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 2h2 hours ago Kelly said look out for a healthy, motivated Allen Craig this year. "I hope (the Red Sox) find him the playing time he deserves." Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 2h2 hours ago Kelly also predicts big things for Allen Craig. They live about 40 miles apart, and Kelly says he’s healthy. “He’s going to dominate" Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 2h2 hours ago As for him, Kelly jumped on ‘EEI, said he was going to win the Cy Young, then didn’t back away from that in media scrum. That’s his mindset. Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 7m7 minutes ago Difference between this offseason and last for Pedroia: He was able to lift weights. "I was kind of shriveled up. Not anymore" #RedSox Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 7m7 minutes ago Pedroia said he will play in the same style he always has, injuries aside. “I’ll consider it,” he said when asked about not sliding into 1st Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 6m6 minutes ago Pedroia counting on more upper body strength than last year. "Last year, I couldn't grip a dumbell." And now? "You see me." #RedSox Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 3m3 minutes ago Pedroia was asked about how well he’s swinging and said ball is going further. “But I’m no chemist." Physicist you mean? “Whatever." I'll leave it to others for final judgment, but I don't think these qualify for the "best shape of their career".
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 24, 2015 19:10:41 GMT -5
A lot of guys look good, except Napoli. We may see Craig taking playing time away from him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 24, 2015 19:17:43 GMT -5
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 24, 2015 20:13:23 GMT -5
I think I'd take the field over Mookie, but I'd probably take Mookie over any other individual player.
Great jmei, now you just jinxed Mookie. I say this because of this prior comment you made about Bogaerts.
forum.soxprospects.com/post/84231
That statement was true at the time and not a prediction. What does that have to do with this?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 24, 2015 23:43:36 GMT -5
Exactly. Somewhere between pessimism and optimism....realism .....You know, something I just thought of while mentioning the GB tendencies of the team: catchers who control the running game are an important complement to that quality in pitchers. Ground balls limit extra base hits, and then with catchers that control the running game, you're going to force teams into stringing together a few hits in a row to score some runs.The Sox definitely have a plan that they're executing on ... it'll at the very least be interesting to see how it pans out. Following up on your discussion above about the Redsox controlling the running game with Vasquez and maybe wanting to minimize extra base hits like doubles and HR in Fenway as well, it would seem that Badenhop should also be on their wish list I would think. A relatively good defensive OF in Betts, Castillo and Hanley should help minimize extra base hits as well. And their focus on a strong overall lineup should give consistent run production. I love this approach. Minimizing overall downside risk with lots of solid players offensively. Not sure they did that in terms of run prevention, but they can still pick up a stud pitcher in July if they want and there is a good chance some of the current starters have a solid year.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 25, 2015 0:30:38 GMT -5
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 25, 2015 7:59:16 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 25, 2015 9:20:40 GMT -5
I think I'd take the field over Mookie, but I'd probably take Mookie over any other individual player. If we're talking strictly WAR, it's close, but I'd take Pedroia over Mookie because of the glove. Unless Mookie takes CF away from Castillo and is given that boost.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jan 25, 2015 10:18:18 GMT -5
Is there a decent chance that the Red Sox start the year with 11 pitchers and 14 position players to ensure Craig and Victorino are healthy?
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jan 25, 2015 11:24:39 GMT -5
Foxwood's mix: Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 19m19 minutes ago Justin Masterson says he's feeling healthy again. Mechanics are straightened out. #SoxWinterWeekend Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 6m6 minutes ago Allen Craig feels totally healthy, not worried about trade rumors or playing time with Red Sox. "It'll work itself out." Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 48m48 minutes ago Rick Porcello not ready for contract extension talk with Red Sox just yet: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/01/rick_porcello_not_ready_for_ex.html#incart_river … Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 1h1 hour ago Brandon Workman said he's still hoping to compete for a spot in the Red Sox starting rotation. Ian Browne ?@ianmbrowne 2h2 hours ago "Yeah, I’m going to win this year. That’s what I told the radio guys. They didn’t believe me – sucks to be them.” -- Joe Kelly '15 #Cy YoungJason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 2h2 hours ago The compliments keep coming in for Rusney Castillo. Christian Vazquez said Castillo was hitting nothing but liners in Puerto Rico. Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 2h2 hours ago Christian Vazquez says he has lost 7 pounds since end of last season, down to 200. #RedSox Where's the love, people?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,119
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Post by nomar on Jan 25, 2015 11:54:20 GMT -5
Adorable
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jan 25, 2015 12:31:52 GMT -5
There are a lot of highly motivated players on the Sox this year. That portends well for the season.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jan 25, 2015 12:58:17 GMT -5
Is there a decent chance that the Red Sox start the year with 11 pitchers and 14 position players to ensure Craig and Victorino are healthy? I don't know ,but I hope so. But I hate the 12 pitcher deal at all times. Just more so in April ,with the off days and almost sure to be postponed games.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 25, 2015 14:53:29 GMT -5
Is there a decent chance that the Red Sox start the year with 11 pitchers and 14 position players to ensure Craig and Victorino are healthy? I don't know ,but I hope so. But I hate the 12 pitcher deal at all times. Just more so in April ,with the off days and almost sure to be postponed games. Bill James was trumpeting against the ever increasing size of pitching staffs ten years ago. Since then staffs have continued to expand.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 25, 2015 15:51:50 GMT -5
Is there a decent chance that the Red Sox start the year with 11 pitchers and 14 position players to ensure Craig and Victorino are healthy? I don't know ,but I hope so. But I hate the 12 pitcher deal at all times. Just more so in April ,with the off days and almost sure to be postponed games. The problem of playing time would still exist. I don't see the need or playing time being available for 6 outfielders not including Holt.
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