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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by Guidas on Aug 5, 2014 17:37:24 GMT -5
Any one else scratching their head with Cespedes? The 3 WS winning teams had one major thing in common. They were an offense that was deep with hitters who ground out ABs and got in base. Cespedes is a low OBP guy who doesn't do this. The Sox beat great pitching in the playoffs by getting pitch counts up and knocking the starter who's dominating out if the game. Yea you're throwing a one hit shutout but you've thrown 100 pitches thru 5 innings... He seems like the wrong type of bat for this team. Hi, welcome to the party. Did you bring any food? I've been advancing this point since the moment I heard about the trade. Almost everyone else here disagrees and thinks park effects will turn him into what he was in his rookie season, only now he'll have even more plate discipline because he's been in the league 3 years, and even more next year after he picks Big Papi's brain on how to hit balls in the strike zone. Plus I was told you can't aspire to build line-ups with 7 guys averaging 20 HRs and .350 OBP any more, even though we had a line-up with 6 of those guys last year. So just put those World Series high OBP with some pop teams out of your head. So, yes, some head scratching for a few of us. Welcome. Beyond being not convinced that Cespedes is basically the second coming of Cody Ross offensively, there's the fact that, if we're wrong with that opinion and he does transform into Yoenis Maximus, he's only signed til 2015 and you can't make him a qualifying offer. He'll also want a market value, max years contract, which this ownership group says they don't do. So, yeah, there are a few of is who see this as a crappy deal for now, unless he's traded this winter in a package for an Ace/near-Ace or a high OBP guy with pop like we both think they should get. Oh, I don't believe Lester is re-signing and pledged money to the site if I'm wrong. Also, I believe Bigfoot's a myth. The sightings are way down, too, since Rosanne Barr lost all that weight.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2014 17:45:38 GMT -5
Two responses: 1. How do we know he's not? This isn't a guy coming out of nowhere to have a spectacular defensive season. For years, scouts and analysts have been calling him one of the best defensive center field prospects in baseball and a guy who should contend for multiple Gold Gloves. He has elite range (driven by his incredibly efficient jumps and routes) as well as one of the better center field arms I've ever seen. Maybe he really is that good. 2. He doesn't have to maintain this defensive pace to be a worthwhile starter. Projecting his current year over 600 PAs, he'd rack up 2.5 fWAR and 2.9 bWAR over a full year's worth of playing time. So he could be a good bit worse defensively next year and still be a two win, average overall center fielder. Even if he's "just" a +10 or +15/year defender in center field (certainly very plausible; think Carlos Gomez or Peter Bourjos or a slightly better Ellsbury), he's still an incredibly valuable player.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2014 17:59:56 GMT -5
a high OBP guy with pop like we both think they should get. I don't understand this attitude. Yes, of course it'd be great if they could get an elite offensive player who both gets on base and hits for power. But guys like that are just generally not available, and when they are, they either come with warts (age, defense, etc.) or are extremely expensive to acquire. Plus, it's not like it's a zero-sum game. Adding Cespedes does not prevent them from having either the payroll space or the prospect depth to get a guy like Stanton or CarGo, should they become available.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 5, 2014 18:14:09 GMT -5
a high OBP guy with pop like we both think they should get. I don't understand this attitude. Yes, of course it'd be great if they could get an elite offensive player who both gets on base and hits for power. But guys like that are just generally not available, and when they are, they either come with warts (age, defense, etc.) or are extremely expensive to acquire. Plus, it's not like it's a zero-sum game. Adding Cespedes does not prevent them from having either the payroll space or the prospect depth to get a guy like Stanton or CarGo, should they become available. I can't speak for rjp313jr, but for me it's the combination of his current offensive profile, plus lack of control if he does figure it out plus no ability to QO when, if he does miraculously become a .270/.340/.520 35HR guy thanks to park effects he'll want 6 yrs for $120m, which I don't think the FO will do. Lotta hype on Cespedes, but I just not a fan. I did promise to lay off any overt criticism until we see what happens this winter, unless he craters between now and Sept 30. If he's got his same line and he's this team's # 7 hitter April 1 because they got someone better to put between Papi and Napoli, fine. But if he's in the 5 hole and there's 2 outs and men on, he's someone they'll pitch to (instead of around) and go down and away, up and away, and down and in. Unless he adjusts he'll make an out almost 80% of the time. That's not what I want batting 5th.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 5, 2014 18:32:02 GMT -5
Sorry about the repeat but these threads grow quick and when you take a few days off it's a chore to catch up with everything so I didn't. My bad...
I just think it's an odd target given their philosophy that has won in the past and it seems when they go away from it they struggle. I think there is ZERO chance he develops as has seemingly been suggested. It's just a silly thought considering his age and history. His average will drive any type of decent OBP.
I suppose you can afford one or two free swingers low OBP guys but that's really it. Maybe his pop is worth it considering the lack of RH power in MLB these days or power in general. I'd accept that as an argument of why he's a good fit but he's not going to be something he's never been.
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 5, 2014 18:43:16 GMT -5
If Cespedes is a 25-30 hr. .825 ops middle of the order bat, he's a very good pick up. He was .760 ops this year in oakland and over his tenure in oakland, over 360 games, he's a . 780. At Fenway, it's pretty likely that goes up to at least .800. Also, his strike out numbers aren't bad, so there's not a lot of empty at bats. I just don't know how anyone really finds fault with the acquisition.
Middle of the order hitters are graded on OPS, not obp. obp is big for players with little power.
He's competent defensively but that's all. People are making a bit too much of his arm strength. It's impressive, but he likely doesn't have the range to be a real good right fielder in fenway.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2014 20:02:34 GMT -5
it's the combination of his current offensive profile, plus lack of control if he does figure it out plus no ability to QO when, if he does miraculously become a .270/.340/.520 35HR guy thanks to park effects he'll want 6 yrs for $120m, which I don't think the FO will do. No, Cespedes is not a cheap, team-controlled superstar. But what were you expecting for two months of Jon Lester? Taveras or Pederson or Seager were never on the table. Hell, Josh Bell probably wasn't even on the table. Maybe they could have gotten someone a step down from that who offered more team control but was farther away, but the Red Sox opted instead for the higher floor, lower ceiling guy who was going to contribute in 2015. Even if he's not an All-Star, Cespedes is an above-average regular who will be underpaid (based on current $/WAR figures, he should generate roughly $10m in surplus value next year) and who fits a position of need. If the team was focused on maximizing their 2015 production, that's a pretty great return. If he's got his same line and he's this team's # 7 hitter April 1 because they got someone better to put between Papi and Napoli, fine. But if he's in the 5 hole and there's 2 outs and men on, he's someone they'll pitch to (instead of around) and go down and away, up and away, and down and in. Unless he adjusts he'll make an out almost 80% of the time. That's not what I want batting 5th. Cespedes has a career .318 OBP. That suggests that he'll makes an out 68% of the time even if he doesn't improve on his career marks in a friendlier home ballpark. He's also not some scrub hitter like you keep implying. His above-average power more than makes up for his low OBP. He has a career 117 wRC+ and was hitting cleanup for the team with the most runs scored in the majors. His career 117 wRC+ would have ranked him as the fifth best hitter on the 2013 Red Sox, and he could well have hit fifth for that team. The only pending free agents who project to hit better than Cespedes are Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, and Victor Martinez. He pretty unambiguously makes the 2015 team better, which is why I don't really understand the criticism. ADD: I can understand not liking the Lester trade because you don't think they can contend in 2015 and so they should have targeted more long-term assets. But if we take as given that the front office wanted to make the 2015 team as good as possible, Cespedes is a fine get.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2014 20:08:22 GMT -5
I suppose you can afford one or two free swingers low OBP guys but that's really it. Maybe his pop is worth it considering the lack of RH power in MLB these days or power in general. I'd accept that as an argument of why he's a good fit but he's not going to be something he's never been. This seems like judging him based on the type of player he is and letting that prejudice your evaluation. For all intents and purposes, it doesn't really matter how a player gets their offensive production. "Free swinger low OBP" types can still be valuable offensive players. No, he doesn't walk or get on base much, but he doesn't strike out much either and hits for a lot of power. He's an overall above-average hitter, and this team desperately needs above-average hitters.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 5, 2014 21:30:59 GMT -5
Every run saved is equal to every run created. This is going to sound stupid to many, but I disagree with this line of thinking. Sure in "real life" it's true, but I think it's over-rated when putting a team together. Especially when people start using WAR and other stats to determine a players value. These numbers are based off of unreliable stats (defensively) and are also given way too much weight as being actual truth and fact. Replace a 6 WAR player with a 2 WAR player doesn't mean your team will only finish 4 games different in the standings in real life yet we act like it does. Getting back to the point. I believe offense is more valuable than defense. A 4 WAR players whose entire value comes from offense will help a team win more games than the opposite in most cases. In my opinion. I really can't understand this viewpoint. If you win a game 2 - 1 because Player X creates a run, or you win it 1 - 0 because Player X saved a run it does not matter. Either way you win the game because that player contributed a run. Also I don't understand why you would not put together a team for "real life." Should we be putting together teams to win in a video game instead? If you think the stats are unreliable, that's a different argument but I'll say they are constantly getting more accurate and in general do a pretty good job of reflecting both the eye test and other defensive statistics (DRS, etc.). They are especially useful when looked at over a large sample size. Also, no one who uses WAR (correctly) believes that the difference between two players is exactly what WAR says it is, there is always a certain margin of error (about .4 WAR a season) which must be accounted for.
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Post by suttree on Aug 6, 2014 7:19:04 GMT -5
Fangraphs rates JBJ as the best defensive CFer this year. In terms of overall value he is 20th among CFers with at least 250 PAs, and 48th among all OFers. That is not good enough for a contending team. Bradley is 48th in OF fWAR, out of 91 players with at least 250 plate appearances. Which makes him roughly average. Is your contention that a contending team cannot afford to have even one average player? How do you explain the Tigers, who have four OF with >250 plate appearances and three (including Austin Jackson) with lower fWAR than Bradley? 22 teams have at least one OF with worse WAR than JBJ, never mind the other positions. 2 WAR players don't kill a team, quite the opposite: they are very valuable pieces, especially at minimal salary. I think a lot of resources are often wasted chasing marginal upgrades if they come at the expense of sustainable budget and talent management. Among all OFers with at least 100 PAs he is 57th. If he had a bad week he could slip to 70th pretty easily. His production is marginal and going in the wrong direction. I like JBJ but he is far from average. There are plenty of players ranked lower who are clearly better but having bad years or missed significant time, like Choo, Jackson, Victorino, and Rios. A 2 WAR player is a marginal starter. And that is what JBJ is right now. He needs to find some more consistency these next two months, because the Red Sox aren't going to be able to sell tickets based on financial flexibility. The team as it currently is constructed cannot and will not contend next year. Something is going to change.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2014 8:05:41 GMT -5
it's the combination of his current offensive profile, plus lack of control if he does figure it out plus no ability to QO when, if he does miraculously become a .270/.340/.520 35HR guy thanks to park effects he'll want 6 yrs for $120m, which I don't think the FO will do. No, Cespedes is not a cheap, team-controlled superstar. But what were you expecting for two months of Jon Lester? T averas or Pederson or Seager were never on the table. Hell, Josh Bell probably wasn't even on the table. Maybe they could have gotten someone a step down from that who offered more team control but was farther away, but the Red Sox opted instead for the higher floor, lower ceiling guy who was going to contribute in 2015. Even if he's not an All-Star, Cespedes is an above-average regular who will be underpaid (based on current $/WAR figures, he should generate roughly $10m in surplus value next year) and who fits a position of need. If the team was focused on maximizing their 2015 production, that's a pretty great return. If he's got his same line and he's this team's # 7 hitter April 1 because they got someone better to put between Papi and Napoli, fine. But if he's in the 5 hole and there's 2 outs and men on, he's someone they'll pitch to (instead of around) and go down and away, up and away, and down and in. Unless he adjusts he'll make an out almost 80% of the time. That's not what I want batting 5th. Cespedes has a career .318 OBP. That suggests that he'll makes an out 68% of the time even if he doesn't improve on his career marks in a friendlier home ballpark. He's also not some scrub hitter like you keep implying. His above-average power more than makes up for his low OBP. He has a career 117 wRC+ and was hitting cleanup for the team with the most runs scored in the majors. His career 117 wRC+ would have ranked him as the fifth best hitter on the 2013 Red Sox, and he could well have hit fifth for that team. The only pending free agents who project to hit better than Cespedes are Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, and Victor Martinez. He pretty unambiguously makes the 2015 team better, which is why I don't really understand the criticism. ADD: I can understand not liking the Lester trade because you don't think they can contend in 2015 and so they should have targeted more long-term assets. But if we take as given that the front office wanted to make the 2015 team as good as possible, Cespedes is a fine get. We don't know this. In fact, Cherrington said they had some significant prospect offers but decided to go for current major leaguers in the majority of the deals. I am not saying he's a scrub. I'm saying he has big holes in his swing down and in, down and away, and up in the zone, which will be exploited, especially with RISP, until he adjusts. I have never been a fan of all or nothing guys. I value high OPB with moderate power over big power and lower OBP. I am just not sold that his skill set will make this team significantly better. In fact, I think the 2013 LF platoon will prove to have better offensive production than Cespedes. I also think his defense is overrated. Is he better than Jonny Gomes? Sure. Who isn't? But does he take great routes to balls and have exceptional speed? What I see is an average OF with a big arm. Nothing wrong with that, just not above average like a lot of people are saying. Also, who wants Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, and Victor Martinez? My move would've been to load up on the high value prospects Ben said he was offered in one of the Lester or Lackey deals. Given the current high/overvaluation of prospects by GMs, these could be used in packages in the off season to get MLB players of need, or perhaps even one of them could've been a starter next year. The Sox's glut of prospects plus a couple more chips could've yielded some great parts in the off season that could contribute for several years. People dream of Stanton but there are a couple other guys - specifically Harper and Yellich - who may be pried away. Alternately, if you use them to get a guy on a one-year deal (approaching free agency) then I'd rather use those chips to get someone like Heyward or J Upton who will at least bring a comp pick. Look, I hope to be pleasantly surprised and wrong about Cespedes. I hope this guy puts up the production that everyone is predicting the park effects will yield, turns out to be Ortiz, Pt2 and they end up extending him. Right now I'm not seeing that. Heck, if you look at Fangraphs for OFs with an aggregate of the last 3 years, some of the corner OF, or OFs who could play corners, who have had better overall WAR than Cespedes include Tori Hunter, Angel Pagan, Alex Rios, Martin Prado (hey, they could've gotten him!) and Josh Reddick. The only guy I'd want in that group would probably be Reddick (and I'd platoon him with Victorino). The rest, I'd get about as excited as I am about Cespedes right now. Just my opinion, FWIW.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 6, 2014 8:11:48 GMT -5
Apparently the Sox were deciding between a package from the Marlins or Orioles for Lester. Assuming Heaney and Bundy were off the table I'll take the deal they got.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2014 8:40:42 GMT -5
Apparently the Sox were deciding between a package from the Marlins or Orioles for Lester. Assuming Heaney and Bundy were off the table I'll take the deal they got. I don't know how one can assume that, esp with Orioles given what Dealing Dan gave up for basically 20 innings of a 8th or 9th inning reliever.
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Post by jmei on Aug 6, 2014 9:04:27 GMT -5
We don't know this. In fact, Cherrington said they had some significant prospect offers but decided to go for current major leaguers in the majority of the deals. All available evidence strongly suggests it. There were multiple reports that Seager and Pederson were never on the table, and Taveras almost certainly wasn't either. Regardless, the burden is on you to show that prospects like that were on the table and that the front office passed on them in favor of Cespedes. I am not saying he's a scrub. I'm saying he has big holes in his swing down and in, down and away, and up in the zone, which will be exploited, especially with RISP, until he adjusts. He's a career .294/.364/.492 (130 wRC+) with RISP (415 PAs). He's had three years in the majors and put up good offensive numbers. If he was so easily exploited, that would have happened by now. Despite these alleged holes in his swing, he has a career 20.5% strikeout rate that is lower than the league-average. I am just not sold that his skill set will make this team significantly better. In fact, I think the 2013 LF platoon will prove to have better offensive production than Cespedes. I also think his defense is overrated. Is he better than Jonny Gomes? Sure. Who isn't? But does he take great routes to balls and have exceptional speed? What I see is an average OF with a big arm. Nothing wrong with that, just not above average like a lot of people are saying. Having one hitter who can approximate the production of a platoon saves you a roster spot and means you'll have to pinch-hit less in late innings, high-leverage situations (this is a good thing because of the pinch-hit penalty and Farrell's inability to stick to a strict platoon). Cespedes is also a much better fielder and baserunner than the Nava/Gomes duo and so is an overall upgrade there, even if it's not necessarily a huge upgrade. Plus, by all accounts, he'll be playing mostly RF going forward, and he's clearly an upgrade on a hobbled Victorino and an uncertain Betts or Holt. By most statistical measures, Cespedes has been an above-average left-field defender (+7.3 UZR/150, +8 DRS/yr), with his above-average speed making up for some shaky routes. His overall range is probably average at best, but an outfielder who has average range and an elite arm is, by definition, an above-average defensive outfielder. My move would've been to load up on the high value prospects Ben said he was offered in one of the Lester or Lackey deals. Given the current high/overvaluation of prospects by GMs, these could be used in packages in the off season to get MLB players of need, or perhaps even one of them could've been a starter next year. The Sox's glut of prospects plus a couple more chips could've yielded some great parts in the off season that could contribute for several years. People dream of Stanton but there are a couple other guys - specifically Harper and Yellich - who may be pried away. Alternately, if you use them to get a guy on a one-year deal (approaching free agency) then I'd rather use those chips to get someone like Heyward or J Upton who will at least bring a comp pick. I think this is a reasonable point of view, but it's a higher-risk one than getting the sure upgrade in Cespedes right away. Sure, they could have traded Lester for prospects (maybe the Orioles offered Hunter Harvey?) and hoped to use their prospect depth to improve the offense over the offseason. But there's no guarantee that any of these young studs you keep salivating over would have been available at a reasonable price. If none of them are available, they'd be left holding the bag and would likely have to embark on a more long-term rebuild, something the front office/ownership clearly wanted to avoid. Heck, if you look at Fangraphs for OFs with an aggregate of the last 3 years, some of the corner OF, or OFs who could play corners, who have had better overall WAR than Cespedes include Tori Hunter, Angel Pagan, Alex Rios, Martin Prado (hey, they could've gotten him!) and Josh Reddick. The only guy I'd want in that group would probably be Reddick (and I'd platoon him with Nava). Reddick is the only player of that group who isn't entering his mid-/late-30s decline phase (one of the big draws of Cespedes is that he's 28 and in his prime), which means none of them realistically projects to be better than Cespedes in 2015. Funnily enough, Reddick's career .243/.304/.428 line is worse than Cespedes' in every way, so it's odd that you'd take him over Cespedes (Josh is definitely a better fielder, though, with more range and a comparable arm). Reddick is also a LHH, which makes a platoon with Nava inadvisable.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2014 9:24:57 GMT -5
Reddick would be quite a platoon with Victorino though. I'm not convinced that Cespedes can play RF in Fenway. And that also has me questioning what the hell we're doing with Craig, Victorino and Cespedes(and Napoli) on the team next year. I understand not counting on Victorino's health, but what if he is healthy? Are we going to be in another Carp situation where we wait half the year to clear the completely unnecessary roster spot where one guy is rotting on the bench? And not having a spot on the field for Betts to possibly play at all, let alone Holt. If Hassan keeps raking in AAA, that will be a waste, being the 6th RH OF available or whatever.
I think (hope) that something major is in the plans this winter involving at least one of Cespedes, Craig, Napoli and Victorino in addition to WMB. But the good news is how much of a premium is on RH bats and how little is available this winter.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2014 9:32:31 GMT -5
mredsox89: defense WAR is based on calculation to speculative to use in making your argument. To show you how silly the number is JBJ currently has a 2.1 dWAR, which is similar to what Paul Blair had during his peak. Blair is considered to be the greatest defensive center fielder over the past 50 years. Bradley is no Blair, yet WAR grades them as similar. Bad stat. I saw Blair many times during his career with the Orioles, and he was a great defender. I don't agree that Bradley is no Blair. I think he can be of the same class, and he has a better arm.
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Post by raftsox on Aug 6, 2014 9:41:47 GMT -5
I really can't understand this viewpoint. If you win a game 2 - 1 because Player X creates a run, or you win it 1 - 0 because Player X saved a run it does not matter. Either way you win the game because that player contributed a run. Yes, saving a run is as good as creating a run, but in both of your examples that "our" team wins, they score a run. I think the point people are trying to make is a bit hyperbolic because of the poor season. However, they (we?)'re all saying "whoopidy doo, they team is saving lots of runs, but they aren't scoring any either". Probably next year the team both saves runs and scores runs equally well, but they aren't doing it now which results in games where the Sox LOSE 3-1.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2014 9:43:46 GMT -5
I really can't understand this viewpoint. If you win a game 2 - 1 because Player X creates a run, or you win it 1 - 0 because Player X saved a run it does not matter. Either way you win the game because that player contributed a run. Yes, saving a run is as good as creating a run, but in both of your examples that "our" team wins, they score a run. I think the point people are trying to make is a bit hyperbolic because of the poor season. However, they (we?)'re all saying "whoopidy doo, they team is saving lots of runs, but they aren't scoring any either". Probably next year the team both saves runs and scores runs equally well, but they aren't doing it now which results in games where the Sox LOSE 3-1. It's not a stretch to say if JBJ was in CF last night, the Cardinals don't score their first two runs and we win the game 2-1. I mean we're not going to win any games where we score 0 runs, but that's the only time saving runs isn't going to count for much.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2014 9:45:29 GMT -5
I've always been a big fan of Reddick and would love to see him in RF for the Sox again, assuming he is injury-free. This season and last have been marred by a number of injuries. I think if he does get healthy he very well might have some good seasons ahead. He and Bradley sure would tighten up the defense and cut down a lot of runners.
I was opposed to trading Lester, but I think they did the very best they could do. I don't have the faith in prospects that many others do. The flame-out rate is too high. I also do not believe the Sox were offered any elite prospects. I don't think any team would do that for a two month rental.
So, I would much rather get a proven player, and I think Cespedes is an excellent pickup. However, I can't see him playing right field, either, and probably the Sox management will conclude that, if they haven't already.
I will be amazed if Victorino ever plays regularly for the Sox again, and so I don't think he should be in the calculations for next season. The Sox are going to have to acquire another RF.
It was really great to have Holt do so well for so long, but he is coming back to earth. He is a good player, but I don't see him as a regular for the Sox longer term. I think it is far more in the team's interest to give Betts many of those at-bats now going to Holt. Maybe Betts is the RF of the future. I don't know where else he is going to play.
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Post by jmei on Aug 6, 2014 9:48:52 GMT -5
I'm not convinced that Cespedes can play RF in Fenway. And that also has me questioning what the hell we're doing with Craig, Victorino and Cespedes(and Napoli) on the team next year. I understand not counting on Victorino's health, but what if he is healthy? Are we going to be in another Carp situation where we wait half the year to clear the completely unnecessary roster spot where one guy is rotting on the bench? And not having a spot on the field for Betts to possibly play at all, let alone Holt. If Hassan keeps raking in AAA, that will be a waste, being the 6th RH OF available or whatever. If they have four healthy and productive outfielders (five, including Nava), that is the definition of a good problem to have. Noone has ever complained about having too many good players, and between platoons and days off, it's easy enough to find playing time for eight players between five positions (LF/CF/RF/1B/DH). Holt (who is severely regressing, btw) should get plenty of playing time on the left side of the infield, and Hassan is not anywhere near a good enough prospect to be worth worrying about carving out playing time for (he's still striking out a ton, not hitting for much power, and relying on an unsustainable BABIP in Pawtucket). Remember, this sort of alleged logjam is only a problem if one of the players on the roster underperforms while blocking a superior player from getting adequate playing time. Along those lines, if, say, Craig hits no better next year than he has this year and blocks Betts (who looks like a better player) from getting major league playing time, that's a problem. I do think it is a legitimate concern that there's no spot for Betts next year, which makes me think that he's trade bait this offseason. But even there, as of right now, Craig probably projects to be a better player next year than Betts, which means you don't trade him away just to open up a spot for Mookie.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2014 9:55:45 GMT -5
At this point, I'm only going to assume that Holt is in a slump, not that this is obviously the way he should have always played. Let's see how he handles it.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2014 10:18:09 GMT -5
We don't know this. In fact, Cherrington said they had some significant prospect offers but decided to go for current major leaguers in the majority of the deals. All available evidence strongly suggests it. There were multiple reports that Seager and Pederson were never on the table, and Taveras almost certainly wasn't either. Regardless, the burden is on you to show that prospects like that were on the table and that the front office passed on them in favor of Cespedes.
My point is, personally not being wowed by Cespedes + knowing GMs lust for prospects + Ben remarking on the high quality of prospects offered but that's not what they wanted = Evidence suggests there were pieces available that, at the very least, could've been of use in deals this winter. And I would've taken Piscotty + Kelly + low A lottery ticket (i.e. Seager, Pederson and Tavaras weren't the be-all end alls. Added - Look what Douquette gave up for 20 innings of a reliever. I've got to believe he was offering one of the top two guys for Lester, but I haven't talked to him since 2003 and doubt he'd tell me anyway. I am not saying he's a scrub. I'm saying he has big holes in his swing down and in, down and away, and up in the zone, which will be exploited, especially with RISP, until he adjusts. He's a career .294/.364/.492 (130 wRC+) with RISP (415 PAs). He's had three years in the majors and put up good offensive numbers. If he was so easily exploited, that would have happened by now. Despite these alleged holes in his swing, he has a career 20.5% strikeout rate that is lower than the league-average. Uh huh. So it's all park effects right? Gotta be. Not weak contact on certain pitches or pop-ups from trying to knock the cover off each pitch. I am just not sold that his skill set will make this team significantly better. In fact, I think the 2013 LF platoon will prove to have better offensive production than Cespedes. I also think his defense is overrated. Is he better than Jonny Gomes? Sure. Who isn't? But does he take great routes to balls and have exceptional speed? What I see is an average OF with a big arm. Nothing wrong with that, just not above average like a lot of people are saying. Having one hitter who can approximate the production of a platoon saves you a roster spot and means you'll have to pinch-hit less in late innings, high-leverage situations (this is a good thing because of the pinch-hit penalty and Farrell's inability to stick to a strict platoon). Cespedes is also a much better fielder and baserunner than the Nava/Gomes duo and so is an overall upgrade there, even if it's not necessarily a huge upgrade. Plus, by all accounts, he'll be playing mostly RF going forward, and he's clearly an upgrade on a hobbled Victorino and an uncertain Betts or Holt. By most statistical measures, Cespedes has been an above-average left-field defender (+7.3 UZR/150, +8 DRS/yr), with his above-average speed making up for some shaky routes. His overall range is probably average at best, but an outfielder who has average range and an elite arm is, by definition, an above-average defensive outfielder. My move would've been to load up on the high value prospects Ben said he was offered in one of the Lester or Lackey deals. Given the current high/overvaluation of prospects by GMs, these could be used in packages in the off season to get MLB players of need, or perhaps even one of them could've been a starter next year. The Sox's glut of prospects plus a couple more chips could've yielded some great parts in the off season that could contribute for several years. People dream of Stanton but there are a couple other guys - specifically Harper and Yellich - who may be pried away. Alternately, if you use them to get a guy on a one-year deal (approaching free agency) then I'd rather use those chips to get someone like Heyward or J Upton who will at least bring a comp pick. I think this is a reasonable point of view, but it's a higher-risk one than getting the sure upgrade in Cespedes right away. Sure, they could have traded Lester for prospects (maybe the Orioles offered Hunter Harvey?) and hoped to use their prospect depth to improve the offense over the offseason. But there's no guarantee that any of these young studs you keep salivating over would have been available at a reasonable price. If none of them are available, they'd be left holding the bag and would likely have to embark on a more long-term rebuild, something the front office/ownership clearly wanted to avoid. Which is why I like the Craig and Kelly pick-up better because you get a left fielder who is down this year but has a much better track record, and another starter. Cespedes is a one-year lottery ticket. I don't believe missing out on him forces you into a "more long-term rebuild" with the wealth of prospects this team has to make a deal in the winter. This is why I like the return on the Lackey deal better. It provides more long term benefit, includes a position player of need who may thrive in Fenway and a pitcher who could be a #3 starter. If that was one return, then the Lottery ticket I'd prefer is either 1 very good prospect or two or more who are highly projectable that could've been used as pieces in a deal or deals to go get players in positions of need. Maybe you do get a 30 HR guy with all those prospects. If not, you go get a .350OBP+ guy who will get you 15 HRs who you can control for 2-3 years or more. Either way, after next year you're unlikely to have Cespedes. Personally I'd rather go get the guy who gets on base more and has decent power (or two and platoon) and try to build a line-up of those like in 2013 and surround it with excellent D and pitching. Heck, if you look at Fangraphs for OFs with an aggregate of the last 3 years, some of the corner OF, or OFs who could play corners, who have had better overall WAR than Cespedes include Tori Hunter, Angel Pagan, Alex Rios, Martin Prado (hey, they could've gotten him!) and Josh Reddick. The only guy I'd want in that group would probably be Reddick (and I'd platoon him with Nava).[/quote ]Reddick is the only player of that group who isn't entering his mid-/late-30s decline phase (one of the big draws of Cespedes is that he's 28 and in his prime), which means none of them realistically projects to be better than Cespedes in 2015. Funnily enough, Reddick's career .243/.304/.428 line is worse than Cespedes' in every way, so it's odd that you'd take him over Cespedes (Josh is definitely a better fielder, though, with more range and a comparable arm). Reddick is also a LHH, which makes a platoon with Nava inadvisable. Exactly my point. Virtually all those guys are and have been Meh players over the last 3 years. And we just picked up one whose WAR is less - unless WAR doesn't matter when we're talking about the lure of BIG POWER - than Cespedes. And yes, he's at his peak - and if he does have a career year, the Sox get the fruits of that, which we all would love - and then he's likely gone. So no, I don't like that part, either. As for Nava - I meant Victorino - and changed it after I posted it. I had Nava on the brain because I think he's still a worthy platoon partner with a solid RH OF, but this may signal his end with the Sox, as well. Meanwhile, I may be coming at this all wrong so if someone could post some links that discuss at which point big power with so-so or less OBP trumps high OBP with decent power, I'd appreciate it. I've valued high OBP way back to the days when I first read Earl Weaver's book and he talked about "moving the line and getting men on and stressing run prevention in the field." I still think despite recent trends, GMs can aspire to build a line-up with 7 starters who average OBP >.350 and 20HRs, and balance it with good to great D and very good or better pitching. Last year's team had 6 position player starters who achieved this average, which means they were just 1 shy of my ideal. So it can be done. But maybe I've been going about this all wrong so any info that can show me the data at which data points/line-up construction big power trumps OBP and moderate power (as described above) in line-up construction, I really would appreciate it. And hey, I'm probably wrong about all this, Cespedes will become a right-handed Big Papi and the Sox sign him to a 6 year deal. If so I'll become his biggest fan.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2014 10:30:37 GMT -5
Earl Weaver had Boog Powell, Frank and Brooks Robinson to get those 3-run HRs that he loved. Yes, he had high OBP guys, but he always had the big power guys as well, and would not have won without them.
The same is true for the great Sox teams. They combined high OBP with two or three high power guys.
What kills a team is to have two or three, or more, slots in the lineup that are neither, which is what we saw in 2012 and again this year. What made last year's team is that basically there were no black holes in the lineup, and there was some power, a lot of HRs.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2014 10:48:41 GMT -5
Earl Weaver had Boog Powell, Frank and Brooks Robinson to get those 3-run HRs that he loved. Yes, he had high OBP guys, but he always had the big power guys as well, and would not have won without them. The same is true for the great Sox teams. They combined high OBP with two or three high power guys. What kills a team is to have two or three, or more, slots in the lineup that are neither, which is what we saw in 2012 and again this year. What made last year's team is that basically there were no black holes in the lineup, and there was some power, a lot of HRs. Robinson was no great shakes offensively but gets a nice halo in the memory banks - though he did have some great years. Ditto Paul Blair who really had just one or two good years. But yes, Boog Powell and Eddie Murray and Frank Robinson were among his big hoopers during the Orioles glory days. Check out their OBPs. Also remember that those were days when walks were de-emphasized and batting average were king. I admit that power is tougher to find, which is why we should all bow down to Ortiz while he is still Ortiz. Which is also why I'm realistic enough to be looking to spread the HRs out, trying to get those 20 HR guys with good OBP.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2014 10:53:33 GMT -5
I think the key is to have either power or good baserunning to go along with good OBP.
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