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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 29, 2014 18:03:56 GMT -5
Napoli is a much better hitter than Cespedes.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2014 18:06:27 GMT -5
Cespedes is not a better hitter than Napoli. By any metric which accurately weighs OBP and SLG (wOBA or wRC+), Napoli has been a better hitter than Cespedes since the latter debuted.
ADD: LOL
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Post by jclmontana on Sept 29, 2014 18:27:47 GMT -5
When the Sox got Cespedes I was pretty clear that I thought given his short term and no ability to give him a qualifying offer, it was a guy I didn't want because I was fairly sure he was/is what he has shown himself to be in years 2-3 rather than his rookie year. Many here then projected him to revert back to rookie year greatness citing above all factors park effects. Anyone change their minds? I sure haven't. In fact, I am even more sure that he is exactly what I stated he was on July 31 - Cody Ross with a better arm (i.e a 2.8-3.0 WAR player). In other words, a lot of hype, but really a sub top-20 OF whose on base % barely top 50 for qualifying outfielders. Fine if he hits 30+HRs but he didn't and likely won't. Going forward he's certainly no one I'd want on this team next year, never mind the next 5 years (next year plus a 4 year extension) and I don't think he's worth more than $12M a year, which is likely less than he'll command in 2015. Personally I hope he's traded as part of a larger package for a #1/2 starter, a top 30 prospect, or player with a better OBP and same or better defensive value. What say y'all. Judging by BC's comments today, it sounds like they really do want Cespedes for next year. Now, it is foolish to bank on what BC says during a September 29 press conference, but I get the sense that they really don't care about the numbers you cite above. They seem to think they need a big bat for next year, they want a power bat, and they seem to be willing to settle for Cody Ross 2.0 (to use your comp). They said as much around the trade deadline, something to the effect that they looked at the upcoming free agent market, the team's needs, and decided that they needed Cespedes (or someone like him) to compete in 2015. I hope that Craig bounces back and becomes his former self again, or Castillo provides more than speed and defense, and Brentz can actually contribute, or any of the other potentials for getting more offense out of what we already have. But that remains to be seen next spring and the early part of the year, which means, despite all his warts, Cespedes is going to be on the 2015 team, at least until the trade deadline. After this year's wild ride, they need to limit the number of high risk personnel decisions, and that means settling for Cespedes. They pretty much know what they are going to get. Go ahead and hate that they accepted a high-floor role player, albeit one with upside, as the return on Jon Lester. But I think that is exactly what they did, and I doubt they back away from that now.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,968
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 29, 2014 18:45:07 GMT -5
When the Sox got Cespedes I was pretty clear that I thought given his short term and no ability to give him a qualifying offer, it was a guy I didn't want because I was fairly sure he was/is what he has shown himself to be in years 2-3 rather than his rookie year. Many here then projected him to revert back to rookie year greatness citing above all factors park effects. Anyone change their minds? I sure haven't. In fact, I am even more sure that he is exactly what I stated he was on July 31 - Cody Ross with a better arm (i.e a 2.8-3.0 WAR player). In other words, a lot of hype, but really a sub top-20 OF whose on base % barely top 50 for qualifying outfielders. Fine if he hits 30+HRs but he didn't and likely won't. Going forward he's certainly no one I'd want on this team next year, never mind the next 5 years (next year plus a 4 year extension) and I don't think he's worth more than $12M a year, which is likely less than he'll command in 2015. Personally I hope he's traded as part of a larger package for a #1/2 starter, a top 30 prospect, or player with a better OBP and same or better defensive value. What say y'all. Three win players are worth something like $20m a year in this $/WAR environment. Cespedes is thus certainly underpaid in 2015 (assuming you expect him to continue to be the three win player he's been in recent years), though I can understand being wary of a long-term, big-money extension. You might not like it, but that's the going rate for above-average regulars. Not trying to single out jmei here because the bolded part is something that Internet posters say all the time and it makes no sense to me. A guy's ability to give you 3 WAR doesn't mean it's a good idea to pay him $20 million or anything close to that. A decent FO can get three-win players without busting the payroll like that. Daniel Nava, for instance, has been 3.3 and 2.8 WAR the last two years and he's earned south of $1.1 million for those two years combined. Here's a list of members of the 2013 World Champs who had 3 WAR or more: Pedroia, Victorino, Ellsbury, Papi, Napoli, Drew, Buchholz, Koji and Lester. Salty just missed at 2.9. (All numbers are bRef.) That list includes guys on short-term contracts, guys on long-termers, oldies, guys in their prime, guys recently acquired as FAs and guys who had been here for a long time. And not one was making $20 million.
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Post by redsox1534 on Sept 29, 2014 18:46:56 GMT -5
Hated the Craig trade, wanted prospects for him or better major leaguers. Kelly has been great Im happy to have him, but Craig has been terrible. So lost he is. Not sure how much value he holds but hope we can get something of value for him in the offseason.
Im looking to sign Lester in the offseason. Then trade for a Cueto or Latos if the terms of the deal are right. Dont want to overpay for soon to be FA, One who is a little overrated and the other so injury prone.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 29, 2014 18:49:31 GMT -5
I backed out of the discussions about Cespedes after making a mistake on his age. However, I still think the majority here are underestimating him. I don't dispute the statistical analysis that some have used. I just went through every conceivable statistic and, with a couple of exceptions, he grades out just a little above average. Those exceptions are important, especially to the Red Sox.
Among all outfielders, he was tied for 13th in HRs and 6th in RBIs. I know many don't think RBIs are important, but when a player's ranking in that category is well above his ranking in others, then I think it means something. And no one can argue that his opportunities for RBIs with the Sox were anything special.
There is no player on the Sox roster who could replace his run production. If Victorino has a year like 2013 - which was close to a career year for him - then he certainly could replace him. But no reasonable person is going to expect Victorino to repeat his 2013 performance.
By comparison, Jayson Heyward is a big favorite on this board, but his wOBA is only three points above Cespedes and his wRC+ is only one point higher. He would be a good replacement - but not a significant improvement, and at what cost?
Cespedes is a solid player. He is not Cody Ross. He is a much better defender and a better hitter overall. The Sox would be hard-pressed to replace his run production, and if there is one thing the Sox need the most it is greater run production.
Right now the only position player addition that people seem to think the Sox will add - and the only one the management has discussed - is 3B. But if Cespedes is gone, will they find a 3B who would replace his run production? There are not a lot of real palatable possibilities.
Where is the increase of 150 to 200 runs the Sox need next year going to come from? Are all the young players going to blossom into superstars?
The 2013 team had 11 players with wRCs over .100. This year's team had six if Castillo (163) and Betts (130) are counted. The other four were Napoli (124), Nava (100), Cespedes (109) and Ortiz (135). Pedroia was 99 and, if healthy, certainly will top that next year. But they are a long ways from the numbers they had in their WS year of 2013. They cannot afford to subtract one of their top producers without replacing him - and then they still have to improve significantly.
It's not going to be easy.
I do agree that if Cespedes will not sign an extension, or a new deal with the Sox this winter, then he should be traded if decent value can be obtained in return.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2014 18:55:24 GMT -5
Three win players are worth something like $20m a year in this $/WAR environment. Cespedes is thus certainly underpaid in 2015 (assuming you expect him to continue to be the three win player he's been in recent years), though I can understand being wary of a long-term, big-money extension. You might not like it, but that's the going rate for above-average regulars. Not trying to single out jmei here because the bolded part is something that Internet posters say all the time and it makes no sense to me. A guy's ability to give you 3 WAR doesn't mean it's a good idea to pay him $20 million or anything close to that. A decent FO can get three-win players without busting the payroll like that. Daniel Nava, for instance, has been 3.3 and 2.8 WAR the last two years and he's earned south of $1.1 million for those two years combined. Here's a list of members of the 2013 World Champs who had 3 WAR or more: Pedroia, Victorino, Ellsbury, Papi, Napoli, Drew, Buchholz, Koji and Lester. Salty just missed at 2.9. (All numbers are bRef.) That list includes guys on short-term contracts, guys on long-termers, oldies, guys in their prime, guys recently acquired as FAs and guys who had been here for a long time. And not one was making $20 million. ...and having multiple cheap three win players is how you win a championship. Multiple studies indicate that for free agent signings, the going rate is between six and seven million dollars per win. You might think that's expensive, but it also happens to be the only way to add talent while only spending money.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 21:30:26 GMT -5
Cespedes is not a better hitter than Napoli. By any metric which accurately weighs OBP and SLG (wOBA or wRC+), Napoli has been a better hitter than Cespedes since the latter debuted. ADD: LOL Park factor in Oakland = -85 ( 2.5 years for Cespedes ) Park factor in Fenway = +105 ( 2 years for Napoli, 1/2 year for Cespedes ) Park factor in Texas = +125 ( 1 year for Napoli ) That's a pretty big swing wouldn't you say, and probably will skew the numbers going forward a lot more towards Cespedes. Cespedes is also almost exactly 4 years younger and healthier with a top 3 pull percentage swing which should benefit him in Fenway. Cespedes wRC+ last 3 years, mostly in a severe pitcher's park = 136, 102, 109 Napoli's wRC+ last 3 years in clear hitter's parks ( Boston, Texas ) = 116, 129, 124 Add Cespedes wRC+ over the last 3 years ( his only years in the majors ) = 347 Add Napoli's wRC+ over the last 3 years = 369 Let's assume only a 1/2 boost due to park factor considerations ( only 1/2 of all games are played in the home park ) and it is conservatively at least 10% (20-10=10) = 1.10 1.10 x Cespede's wRC+ of 347 = 381.7 ( or significantly better than Napoli's 369 even for Napoli's best metric ). ADD: LOL And what really matters is who is the better hitter at this moment in time. Going forward. Cespede's youth, health, extreme pull swing should help him substantially in Fenway park. Compared to Napoli being 4 years older, less healthy, no new dividend from park factor.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 21:35:59 GMT -5
I'll put some skin on it based on wRC+ going forward, if Cespedes and Napoli are on the same team in 2015. Game jmei? I'll be nice....
LOL
The discussion was really about salary and we largely agree on that. If anything you appear to think Cespedes is worth more than I do. So this is in good natured fun. If I win I won't be cruel. I see the softball you gave Jimed!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2014 21:56:13 GMT -5
He was laughing because three people posted the exact same response at the same time. Y'see, it's funny, because you wouldn't expect something like that to happen.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 22:09:50 GMT -5
I'm ok with it. Not upset. I honestly think all three of them are wrong!
Any takers on my bet?
I see both positions. It's good natured fun. It could go either way. If I lose jmei wouldn't be mean about it. I wouldn't either if I won. I think they trade Cespedes anyway.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 22:21:49 GMT -5
A friend on another forum just recommended a trade of Cespedes for Iwakuma of Seattle. Iwakuma earns $3 mil less and at least has a possibility of a pick at the end of his contract ( just 1 year of control remaining ). That pick makes him worth more than Cespedes to me.
Both have 1 year remaining on their contracts and both teams have replacements available. Seattle wants RH power. They know Cespedes and his speed would benefit him as one of their corner OF. I think it's a solid fit.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 29, 2014 22:32:01 GMT -5
A friend on another forum just recommended a trade of Cespedes for Iwakuma of Seattle. Iwakuma earns $3 mil less and at least has a possibility of a pick at the end of his contract ( just 1 year of control remaining ). That pick makes him worth more than Cespedes to me. Both have 1 year remaining on their contracts and both teams have replacements available. Seattle wants RH power. They know Cespedes and his speed would benefit him as one of their corner OF. I think it's a solid fit. I would not do that trade.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2014 22:47:03 GMT -5
wRC+ is already park adjusted. The offensive gap is way, way larger by unadjusted wOBA. I'll take any bet which has Napoli as the better hitter by wRC+ next year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 29, 2014 23:03:12 GMT -5
A friend on another forum just recommended a trade of Cespedes for Iwakuma of Seattle. Iwakuma earns $3 mil less and at least has a possibility of a pick at the end of his contract ( just 1 year of control remaining ). That pick makes him worth more than Cespedes to me. Both have 1 year remaining on their contracts and both teams have replacements available. Seattle wants RH power. They know Cespedes and his speed would benefit him as one of their corner OF. I think it's a solid fit. Jack Z wouldn't have to be his cantankerous self over that one.. He'd probably laugh at Cherrington right away and hang up the phone. No offense Lavarnwayguy, But Iwakuma is a LOT more valuable to either Seattle, or Boston than is Cespedes.. He's a #1 on half the teams in the game. It just happens he is pitching on a team in Seattle that has one of the best in the game ahead of him.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Sept 29, 2014 23:27:34 GMT -5
I bet they don't trade Cespedes and just let him walk at the end of the year.
My interpretation of the Red Sox' strategy is that they recognize the need for a young cost-controlled core, and many of their moves are designed to keep people in the seats until such a core emerges. I think the acquisition of Cespedes was such a move. Given that you cannot pay 6 to 7 million dollars per WAR and acquire enough WAR to contend and stay below the luxury tax threshold, I doubt they will re-sign Cespedes. Finding a 3 WAR player (or even a 2 WAR player) that costs less than Cespedes is a reasonably achievable proposition.
Since the Red Sox appear to put most of their revenues back into the team -- certainly as much as any team does -- this seems a reasonable approach. They are trying to maintain sufficient fan interest to be able afford top of the line free agents without giving up on the high impact prospects that could form a core to build around.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 23:39:19 GMT -5
wRC+ is already park adjusted. The offensive gap is way, way larger by unadjusted wOBA. I'll take any bet which has Napoli as the better hitter by wRC+ next year. You are on jmei. Assuming they are on the same team for the same period of time. Comparable number of AB ( for example if one guy starts off well and only puts up 60 AB as compared to the other's 500). The winner assigns the other guy an avatar for 6 months. We agree to not be mean to the other.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 23:45:31 GMT -5
Iwakuma costs less and can pssibly generate a pick at the end, as compared to Cespedes so I think Iwakuma is of more value as well but overall it's a good fit for both teams. I think we'd have to pick up some salary also and possibly add a prospect but they are in the ballpark and Seattle wants power bad. We have a surplus of Outfielders.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 30, 2014 0:04:36 GMT -5
Iwakuma costs less and can pssibly generate a pick at the end, as compared to Cespedes so I think Iwakuma is of more value as well but overall it's a good fit for both teams. I think we'd have to pick up some salary also and possibly add a prospect but they are in the ballpark and Seattle wants power bad. We have a surplus of Outfielders. Not against getting Iwakuma and have called for Boston signing him after his deal expires next season. His splitter is every bit as nasty as is Koji's, only he can throw it over 7-8IP's and has a FB 91-3MPH. His numbers were better until he got hurt mid way thru the summer. he's a quality SP to say the least, but still don't see Seattle moving him, even with Paxton coming back and them adding Walker to their rotation. I'd love for Cherrington and Jack Z to be able to work something out with cespedes and him however, then sign Iwakuma to an extension, he's better than Shields and not reliant on hard stuff like Shields, so think he'll last longer, same as lester, even tho Iwakuma is older than both.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 30, 2014 6:40:33 GMT -5
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 30, 2014 7:21:20 GMT -5
Nice job once again Philsbosoxfan. 2 fine articles in less than 12 hours you have sniffed out and linked here. Job well done and many, many thanks.
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Post by awall on Sept 30, 2014 7:23:30 GMT -5
1. CF Mookie Betts 2. 2B Dustin Pedrioa 3. SS Xander Boegarts 4. DH David Ortiz 5. 1B Mike Napoli 6. RF Nava/Craig 7. 3B ? 8. LF Rusney Castillo 9. C Christian Vazquez
I don't think Craig is trade-able at this point. I'd like to see them move Cespedes (assuming he isn't open to an extension this off season) and other pieces for a third baseman (yes, I know that may not be realistic given the dearth of talent available out there). Victorino is 4th outfielder and if healthy could take over RF if Castillo struggles. Love the top half of the lineup, a bit scared of the bottom half.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 30, 2014 8:00:52 GMT -5
Cespedes for a 3b and Nava/Craig in LF? That's a lateral move at best. Just start Holt at 3b unless you're moving Mookie there. Keep Cespedes in LF. See how Cecchini performs in first half at Pawtucket. I doubt it, but there could be an in-house option. Pick one up durng the season if outlook not promising. What did Prado cost? I'd rather spend my assets to improve our pitching staff.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 30, 2014 8:18:41 GMT -5
You know, I had no idea Allen Craig's contract was as cheap as it is from a luxury tax perspective ... his salary goes up, but his # against the cap is only $6 million every year through 2018. Changes my view on his value a little bit.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2014 8:33:30 GMT -5
Cespedes for a 3b and Nava/Craig in LF? That's a lateral move at best. Just start Holt at 3b unless you're moving Mookie there. Keep Cespedes in LF. See how Cecchini performs in first half at Pawtucket. I doubt it, but there could be an in-house option. Pick one up durng the season if outlook not promising. What did Prado cost? I'd rather spend my assets to improve our pitching staff. I think you get max value for Holt if you trade him now. He had an aberrant year and is highly unlikely to repeat that first half-type of performance ever again. He is more likely what he was in the second half and, while a gamer, they have Betts to cover the OF and 2nd, and Cecchini and Marrero to cover 3rd/SS if there is an injury. Holt, as brilliant as he looked is a replaceable skill set, but may still be perceived as a starter/super utility guy by some GMs. That needs to be leveraged if true as his value will never be higher.
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