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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by greenmonsterwhalers on Oct 1, 2014 23:30:54 GMT -5
Just to be clear, Vazquez will never be a backup to anyone. He will either start for Boston or be traded and start for another team. We're talking about one of the better defensive catchers to make it to the majors in the recent past, maybe the best. I'll also predict right now that he'll improve his hitting year over year to where he'll have value there also. As others have pointed out, he did just that in the minors when he repeated a level. Everything we've read, heard, and seen says he's a student of the game. He's too good to waste on the bench. I agree 100% with everything you said.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2014 0:28:34 GMT -5
I don't see a heck of a lot of difference between JBJ at the begiing of last Spring and Vasquez as of next Soring. We went into the year thinking JBJ would be fine in CF but after hitting .210 for the year with terrific D all the sudden a lot of people started thinking maybe JBJ needs to be in AAA. Vasquez may well end up being a sub .200 hitter. I don't see where he is any more likely to hit than JBJ was at the beginning of last year. If anything, JBJ was projected to hit lot better. I don't think he is much more likely to succeed than Cechinni, but Cechinni is not the soup de jour today.
Vasquez is. Things can change. Let's hope Vasquez really is a starting level catcher.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 2, 2014 4:19:14 GMT -5
Excellent article by Tim Britton listing potential second tier FA starters. I for one would be happy to go into the season: Lester/Shields Ervin Santana Buchholz Kelly De La Rosa
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Post by awall on Oct 2, 2014 5:08:09 GMT -5
People really can't see a difference between JBJ and Vazquez's approach and ability to put a decent swing on the ball? That's absurd.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 2, 2014 6:21:05 GMT -5
I think Vasquez will hit -- eventually; however I also think it might take a couple of years. I believe that because of the physical demands of catching, catchers tend to have significantly fewer "reps" than other position players their age, and this is part of the reason catchers have a different development vs. age profile. Vasquez is still several hundred upper level at bats short of what a typical major league rookie would have.
I would also like to see the Red Sox think about a "two-headed" catcher with Vasquez and Swihart each playing about 80 games, at least for a couple years. Swihart could also get at bats at DH if his bat warranted it (Big Papi isn't going to play forever). This would help to manage the physical wear and tear, and they could eventually trade one as an established major leaguer with greater trade value.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 2, 2014 6:36:49 GMT -5
I also think formal repetitions (or lack thereof) may explain Boagearts' and Cecchini's struggles this year. Both passed through multiple levels in 2013, so that 2014 was a "catch-up" year. I expect both to rebound in 2015.
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Post by jdb on Oct 2, 2014 7:30:54 GMT -5
Excellent article by Tim Britton listing potential second tier FA starters. I for one would be happy to go into the season: Lester/Shields Ervin Santana Buchholz Kelly De La Rosa I think that Santana gets a QO from Atlanta. He's the type, like last year, that could be out there towards spring training and if we've already signed a QO free agent I'd jump on. Masterson is interesting bc his ties to Boston, JF and the fact a lot of people think he simply wasn't healthy this year. If the thought is sign/trade for an ace and hope one or more of Buch/Kelly/Rubby/Barnes/Ranadou/Webster or buy low FA steps up to a 2/3 type there are worse buy low options out there than Masterson in my mind.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 2, 2014 9:12:54 GMT -5
I don't see a heck of a lot of difference between JBJ at the begiing of last Spring and Vasquez as of next Soring. We went into the year thinking JBJ would be fine in CF but after hitting .210 for the year with terrific D all the sudden a lot of people started thinking maybe JBJ needs to be in AAA. Vasquez may well end up being a sub .200 hitter. I don't see where he is any more likely to hit than JBJ was at the beginning of last year. If anything, JBJ was projected to hit lot better. I don't think he is much more likely to succeed than Cechinni, but Cechinni is not the soup de jour today. Vasquez is. Things can change. Let's hope Vasquez really is a starting level catcher. I've always been of the mind a superlative defensive catcher was of a lot more value than any other position on the field, more than any position by far, even SS. Why guy's like Jerry Grote, Rick Dempsey and Bob Boone, who for big part's of their career's couldn't hit a lick managed to hang around for years as regular catchers. You just did not see that in the past and probably never will in the future for any position, other than C who can dominate what the other team does on the bases and control the tempo of the game.. He's the only positional player who can.
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Post by bbscouts on Oct 2, 2014 14:16:00 GMT -5
I think Cespedes needs to stay unless LF can be upgraded with another player which I doubt. Allen Craig most likely is a lost cause in my opinion and the Red Sox need to be ready to dump him off and eat salary. His 22 OPS+ with the team is scary for a veteran hitter. I like the idea of adding Chase Headley for 3 years for 3B. Victorino is worth being patient with as he is good when healthy. Sign Lester or Shields then trade for Cueto if possible. Keep Mookie, Xander and Vasquez as starters.
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Post by curiousle on Oct 2, 2014 17:04:33 GMT -5
Craig, although a complete mess this year, was a two year finalist for MVP and is very cost effective next year and through 2017, I believe, I don't think he's going anywhere, they're not going to sell low on him, I think he's too smart a ballplayer to let this get the better of him and I think he'll be ready for s/training next year ready to contribute.
Cespedes, I don't believe he's going to sign with us, I think packaging him with the Oakland draft pick to a place like Seattle that needs a power bat for a pitcher like Iwamura....you've got to get 1 of Lester or Shields the other S/P is coming from the trade market and I think Iwamura plays as a good 2.
Signing Masterson I think is a productive move, he gives you a long man who can spell other starters thru the year to preserve arms to help keep people healthy...
I would love to see Victorino come back strong-but the number of people who have had this kind of surgery have never really come back from it......
The pressing need is a stable solution at third base, and I don't see that as Brock Holt. The Sox need to find a player that will play 135 games there next year...so Sandoval or trade it appears...with WMB (how disappointing that he didn't play winter ball...) and GC play in Pawtucket next year....
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Oct 2, 2014 17:33:06 GMT -5
Craig, although a complete mess this year, was a two year finalist for MVP and is very cost effective next year and through 2017, I believe, I don't think he's going anywhere, they're not going to sell low on him, I think he's too smart a ballplayer to let this get the better of him and I think he'll be ready for s/training next year ready to contribute. Cespedes, I don't believe he's going to sign with us, I think packaging him with the Oakland draft pick to a place like Seattle that needs a power bat for a pitcher like Iwamura....you've got to get 1 of Lester or Shields the other S/P is coming from the trade market and I think Iwamura plays as a good 2. Signing Masterson I think is a productive move, he gives you a long man who can spell other starters thru the year to preserve arms to help keep people healthy... I would love to see Victorino come back strong-but the number of people who have had this kind of surgery have never really come back from it...... The pressing need is a stable solution at third base, and I don't see that as Brock Holt. The Sox need to find a player that will play 135 games there next year...so Sandoval or trade it appears...with WMB (how disappointing that he didn't play winter ball...) and GC play in Pawtucket next year.... You can't trade that pick
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 2, 2014 17:47:29 GMT -5
Off-topic. Going through Junction City, OR. Anybody know where Bobby Doerr lives?
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Post by ramireja on Oct 2, 2014 17:47:52 GMT -5
I don't see a heck of a lot of difference between JBJ at the begiing of last Spring and Vasquez as of next Soring. We went into the year thinking JBJ would be fine in CF but after hitting .210 for the year with terrific D all the sudden a lot of people started thinking maybe JBJ needs to be in AAA. Vasquez may well end up being a sub .200 hitter. I don't see where he is any more likely to hit than JBJ was at the beginning of last year. If anything, JBJ was projected to hit lot better. I don't think he is much more likely to succeed than Cechinni, but Cechinni is not the soup de jour today. Vasquez is. Things can change. Let's hope Vasquez really is a starting level catcher. The thing is though, it doesn't really matter if Vazquez hits or not. Of course it would be nice, and I think there is some reason to believe that he could approach the offensive bar set by an average MLB catcher. That said, Vazquez provides much much value with his elite defense than Bradley provides with his elite defense. Vazquez' framing skills come into play continuously when he catches, and the ability to shut down the running game is also incredibly valuable. How many pitches does Vazquez catch a game? How many extra strikes does he earn? On the flip side, how many non-routine catches does JBJ make on a per game basis? I don't have the answers in front of me, but I'm wiling to wager that Vazquez has significantly more opportunities to impact the average baseball game, despite both players profiling as elite defensive players. If we can trust Eric Van's analyses (and I think there is good reason to trust his calculations as a reasonable proxy for WAR and thus overall value), then you can see how much impact a catcher can have on a game with his defense alone. Basically, he is a 'starting level catcher' even if his OPS is .600, probably even an above average catcher.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 2, 2014 17:58:34 GMT -5
I don't see a heck of a lot of difference between JBJ at the begiing of last Spring and Vasquez as of next Soring. We went into the year thinking JBJ would be fine in CF but after hitting .210 for the year with terrific D all the sudden a lot of people started thinking maybe JBJ needs to be in AAA. Vasquez may well end up being a sub .200 hitter. I don't see where he is any more likely to hit than JBJ was at the beginning of last year. If anything, JBJ was projected to hit lot better. I don't think he is much more likely to succeed than Cechinni, but Cechinni is not the soup de jour today. Vasquez is. Things can change. Let's hope Vasquez really is a starting level catcher. Vazquez could bat .100 and be a starting catcher.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,969
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 2, 2014 19:10:46 GMT -5
Excellent article by Tim Britton listing potential second tier FA starters. I for one would be happy to go into the season: Lester/Shields Ervin Santana Buchholz Kelly De La Rosa That would be a pretty bad rotation. Starters 2 through 5 in your rotation were all well-below average in 2014 as measured by ERA-plus. Santana was 92, Kelly 91, RDLR 87, and Clay stunk the league out at 72. We need to acquire two top starters this off-season and even that will leave us pretty exposed in spots 3 through 5. The failure of any of the young pitchers to perform at an adequate ML level in 2014 was one of the biggest disappointments of 2014, right up there with JBJ and X.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2014 19:11:07 GMT -5
I don't see a heck of a lot of difference between JBJ at the begiing of last Spring and Vasquez as of next Soring. We went into the year thinking JBJ would be fine in CF but after hitting .210 for the year with terrific D all the sudden a lot of people started thinking maybe JBJ needs to be in AAA. Vasquez may well end up being a sub .200 hitter. I don't see where he is any more likely to hit than JBJ was at the beginning of last year. If anything, JBJ was projected to hit lot better. I don't think he is much more likely to succeed than Cechinni, but Cechinni is not the soup de jour today. Vasquez is. Things can change. Let's hope Vasquez really is a starting level catcher. Vazquez could bat .100 and be a starting catcher. Several people were saying that about JBJ just 2 months ago.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 2, 2014 19:22:39 GMT -5
Santana was 92, Kelly 91, RDLR 87, and Clay stunk the league out at 72. De La Rosa's is artificially low as he faded at the end of his longest professional season. He was pitching quite well until the final month. Kelly's is a little misleading too - if you take out his disastrous first appearance after getting activated from the DL his ERA drops from 4.20 to 3.76. I'm usually pretty wary of playing with arbitrary endpoints, but in the case the narrative of "he was rusty in his first start in three months" seems fairly sensible. I'm willing to go into a season with those two as my 3 and 4 starters, given the depth in the organization. Barnes, Owens, and maybe Johnson should be ready by June if one of those two falters. I agree with you that Santana is the wrong target for an offseason acquisition. Vazquez could bat .100 and be a starting catcher. Several people were saying that about JBJ just 2 months ago. Can you find an example of someone saying that? The offensive bar for catchers is much, much lower than center fielders. AL catchers hit .241/.301/.374 this season, and CFs hit .262/.324/.388. I don't agree with the idea that Vazquez can hit .100, and be a plus player, but if he's .220/.280/.310 then he'll make his value back on defense.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 2, 2014 19:24:41 GMT -5
Assuming we get two top of the rotation pitchers and a left handed bat this offseason.
In 2015 can we be a playoff team if Vazquez is the everyday catcher and hits .220 with 5 taters and 40 rbi's.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 2, 2014 19:27:56 GMT -5
I don't see a heck of a lot of difference between JBJ at the begiing of last Spring and Vasquez as of next Soring. We went into the year thinking JBJ would be fine in CF but after hitting .210 for the year with terrific D all the sudden a lot of people started thinking maybe JBJ needs to be in AAA. Vasquez may well end up being a sub .200 hitter. I don't see where he is any more likely to hit than JBJ was at the beginning of last year. If anything, JBJ was projected to hit lot better. I don't think he is much more likely to succeed than Cechinni, but Cechinni is not the soup de jour today. Vasquez is. Things can change. Let's hope Vasquez really is a starting level catcher. Vazquez could bat .100 and be a starting catcher. In your world....maybe. No organization is going to run out any ballplayer who hits .100 everyday.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2014 22:01:20 GMT -5
People were saying JBJ could hit .200 and they still would play him. Something like that. Similar comments. We all remember them don't we? I don't want to spend time looking them up. Probably on some game threads.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2014 6:23:57 GMT -5
Vazquez could bat .100 and be a starting catcher. In your world....maybe. No organization is going to run out any ballplayer who hits .100 everyday. I was being sarcastic. Let's say he should hit about as well as Ross without the power.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 3, 2014 10:31:38 GMT -5
redsox: #RedSox today announced that major league Hitting Coach Greg Colbrunn has elected not to return to the position for the 2015 season.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 4, 2014 19:45:56 GMT -5
We need to be looking at opportunities to land an Iwakuma, a Leake, Hamels, Cueto, Latos...etc in a trade. I particularly like Hamels and Leake. We wouldn't have to extend Hamels and he's a definite ace. Leake is still only 27 and I bet we could extend him. Iwakuma is a good fit as well and Seattle might well be willing to trade him as they have real decent pitching plus they could use some of our young fly ball pitcher arms. OR we could just sign 2 free agents and save our powder for other needs. I think Seattle would be very interested in cespedes. But so would philly and Texas.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 4, 2014 21:01:29 GMT -5
We need to be looking at opportunities to land an Iwakuma, a Leake, Hamels, Cueto, Latos...etc in a trade. I particularly like Hamels and Leake. We wouldn't have to extend Hamels and he's a definite ace. Leake is still only 27 and I bet we could extend him. Iwakuma is a good fit as well and Seattle might well be willing to trade him as they have real decent pitching plus they could use some of our young fly ball pitcher arms. OR we could just sign 2 free agents and save our powder for other needs. I think Seattle would be very interested in cespedes. But so would philly and Texas. Look we scored the fewest runs, had the lowest BA on the road, were at bottom on hitting with RISP etc. ....We need help everywhere!...Bullpen, Starting Pitching and batting. Giving up newly acquired hitter, Cespedes, we'd better add somewhere else big time. Without Cespedes or someone equivalent, we will be back at the bottom in those offensive categories again....Beyond that, Papi is not getting younger and Napoli has a few issues of his own. Pedey has declined due to injuries... and we are thinking of trading Mookie???! Please make yourself comfortable on the couch....and talk to me.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 5, 2014 0:34:04 GMT -5
Step one is determine what we can sign in free agency.
Step two is lay as much pipe as possible at the winter meetings as far as potential future trade partners.
Offensively:
Catcher - Vazquez projects below average offensively, but he did drive in a few runs when given the chance.
1st base - Napoli. Will he bounce back. Was his finger to blame for his worthlessness? Do we need a backup plan in case he plays terrible again next season. Clearly in decline.
2nd base - should be mookie, but we as stuck with a declining bat in pedroia. Does he have a good year left in him? Doubtful! Worst mistake of he cherrington era is signing him to a long term deal.
SS - bogaerts. Hit lefties well. Can he learn not to pull righties that pitch him away? Can he learn to punch it the other way?
3rd base - mystery, but anything is probably an improvement over middlebrooks.
LF - cespedes/Craig/nava - Craig can not hit. Very slow bat. Nava is a platoon bat only. Cespedes has great trade value but can not get in base. Decent power, indifferent defensively.
CF - Castillo/betts - complete duplication of effort. They are for all intensive purposes the same player. Betts has much higher upside.
RF - victorino - very scary. He will be good for 250 at bats as best next season .
I prefer not to trade betts, but because we are stuck with pedroia, betts had to play outbid position.
I prefer not to trade cespedes but recognize he has more value the anyone on the team not named betts it bogaerts.
Bottom line: we need to trade pieces for starting pitching if we are unsuccessful in free agency and we need better options at 3rd, 1st and RF.
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