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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 9, 2014 11:41:26 GMT -5
If you are convinced that jbj/mookie/victorino can adequately cover cf/rf in 2015, then isn't the only spot to be filled lf? And isn't lf the easiest spot to hide a masher?
The crazy thing about this sell cycle is the inverse logic that is dumping under performing vets (gomes/aj/nava/ross/herrera/drew in the field and Peavy, and potentially Lackey/Buck) and replacing them with hopefully improving prospects.
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Post by jmei on Jul 9, 2014 12:10:05 GMT -5
They don't necessarily need power, they just need good hitters. As I mentioned earlier, their problem this year is giving half their playing time to replacement-level hitters. Replace those with league-average guys, even if those guys don't hit for much power, and the offense will be one of the best in the league. Having power/middle-of-the-order/"run producers" is not a prerequisite to offensive success, and chasing power over other attributes is only going to result in dumb moves like overpaying for Nelson Cruz. If Stanton or CarGo or whomever is available for the right price, by all means, go for it, but don't force it if it's not there. Something else to consider: the lineup is getting very right-handed-heavy. The only lefty core pieces going forward are Ortiz, Nava, Bradley, Holt, and Cecchini. They could really use another good lefty bat. Unfortunately, those are hard to find-- the best bets in free agency are probably guys like Melky Cabrera (S), Colby Rasmus, Pablo Sandoval (S), and Chase Headley (S)-- and that's pretty much it for non-1B/DH starting-caliber hitters who hit lefty. That's why Carlos Gonzalez in particular holds some appeal.
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Post by jmei on Jul 9, 2014 12:24:33 GMT -5
Guys I wouldn't be opposed to selling high on in the right deal: Betts, Owens, Holt, Workman, Ranaudo, Marrero, Coyle, Rijo Guys I try to hold on to: De La Rosa, Swihart, Devers, Margot
Betts is more or less blocked at the up-the-middle positions, so he might have more value to another team who can play him at a more valuable defensive position than he does to the Red Sox. Owens is one of those guys another GM might fall in love with that I'm OK with selling high on, even though I think he's going to be really, really good. So in that regard, those two are moveable in the right deal. But that qualifier is important-- they'd only be in the picture for a Stanton/Tulo-type trade, and I'm not shopping them or trying to give them away.
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Post by jmei on Jul 9, 2014 12:27:05 GMT -5
I moved some posts from the buy or sell thread into this one, so the order is a little wonky, but I think the discussion of "which prospects would you be willing to trade" better belongs in this thread than the other one.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2014 12:50:53 GMT -5
How is the board with a trade divesting: 1.Mookie 2.Swihart 3.Owens 4.Devers 5.Margot 6.Rijo Personally, I have my doubts about Betts and Owens, so would be OK with trading them. I like Swihart a lot, less because of his ability to be a middle of the order bat, but because of his premium position. I love to dream on young prospects, so Devers and Margot would be hard to part with, less so with Rijo. How will the rest of you deal with losing a loved prospect? Other than Swihart, I would have no issue trading anyone on the list for value. In fact, I believe we should trade Owens and Betts while their value is peaking, if it will land a premium bat. I would trade anyone for the right return, but I would hesitate trading Swihart, then Mookie, then Devers. But if you told me Mookie+Swihart+Owens+Devers would get you Bryce Harper or Puig or Stanton, I would do that. I would probably do any two from that list for Springer, too.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 9, 2014 13:23:31 GMT -5
I really think Carlos Gonzalez is the guy they should be looking at, because as previously mentioned we could use another big lefty bat. As for who we could move, I think Workman/RDLR/Webster/Ranaudo/Barnes are all in the same class and I would have no problem moving a few of them. I have never been a fan of Cecchini. If you are keeping JBJ and Mookie then it definitely makes it easier to move a guy like Margot. You have both Vazquez and Swihart, so moving one of them would be fine. Coyle and Johnson are both guys you could sell high on. The only prospects I would say are "off limits" are Owens (big LHP) and Marrero (definition of awesome). Realistically though, if you can go get a guy like Car-Go (which I think they need to, seeing as how abysmal the offense has been), nobody is truly off limits.
If the Sox put together a package of Swihart, Webster, Barnes, and Margot (or something of that same type) I think it could make things very interesting for 2015.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 9, 2014 14:44:16 GMT -5
I really think Carlos Gonzalez is the guy they should be looking at, because as previously mentioned we could use another big lefty bat. As for who we could move, I think Workman/RDLR/Webster/Ranaudo/Barnes are all in the same class and I would have no problem moving a few of them. I have never been a fan of Cecchini. If you are keeping JBJ and Mookie then it definitely makes it easier to move a guy like Margot. You have both Vazquez and Swihart, so moving one of them would be fine. Coyle and Johnson are both guys you could sell high on. The only prospects I would say are "off limits" are Owens (big LHP) and Marrero (definition of awesome). Realistically though, if you can go get a guy like Car-Go (which I think they need to, seeing as how abysmal the offense has been), nobody is truly off limits. If the Sox put together a package of Swihart, Webster, Barnes, and Margot (or something of that same type) I think it could make things very interesting for 2015. One thing about CarGo that makes me hesitant is that he has pretty pronounced home/away splits, and while I haven't looked at a spray chart, from what I've seen of him his power is mostly to right. That's not a good thing if we're moving him from Coors to Fenway, and it's why I'd rather get Stanton than Gonzalez. I'd also at least enquire on Tulo, although that would do nothing to resolve the right-handed heaviness problem. I don't know why you'd deal Swihart or Margot before Marrero, he'd be one of the guys at the top of my "sell high" list. I do like him as a prospect, I just doubt he keeps hitting like this. I really like Swihart mostly cause if he can hit .285 with 15 homers and good defense, he's hugely valuable, and I doubt vazquez ever gives us that production, and I sincerely doubt we could hold on to Betts in a deal for a marquee guy like Gonzalez, so Margot is one I would try to hold on to. I also think de la Rosa is definitely a guy they should keep if possible, and I don't think Workman is quite in the same class as the rest of those guys. Not totally sure Barnes is right now either, but that's all a question of opinions, so I'll leave it at that
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 9, 2014 15:02:55 GMT -5
I really think Carlos Gonzalez is the guy they should be looking at, because as previously mentioned we could use another big lefty bat. As for who we could move, I think Workman/RDLR/Webster/Ranaudo/Barnes are all in the same class and I would have no problem moving a few of them. I have never been a fan of Cecchini. If you are keeping JBJ and Mookie then it definitely makes it easier to move a guy like Margot. You have both Vazquez and Swihart, so moving one of them would be fine. Coyle and Johnson are both guys you could sell high on. The only prospects I would say are "off limits" are Owens (big LHP) and Marrero (definition of awesome). Realistically though, if you can go get a guy like Car-Go (which I think they need to, seeing as how abysmal the offense has been), nobody is truly off limits. If the Sox put together a package of Swihart, Webster, Barnes, and Margot (or something of that same type) I think it could make things very interesting for 2015. One thing about CarGo that makes me hesitant is that he has pretty pronounced home/away splits, and while I haven't looked at a spray chart, from what I've seen of him his power is mostly to right. That's not a good thing if we're moving him from Coors to Fenway, and it's why I'd rather get Stanton than Gonzalez. I'd also at least enquire on Tulo, although that would do nothing to resolve the right-handed heaviness problem. I don't know why you'd deal Swihart or Margot before Marrero, he'd be one of the guys at the top of my "sell high" list. I do like him as a prospect, I just doubt he keeps hitting like this. I really like Swihart mostly cause if he can hit .285 with 15 homers and good defense, he's hugely valuable, and I doubt vazquez ever gives us that production, and I sincerely doubt we could hold on to Betts in a deal for a marquee guy like Gonzalez, so Margot is one I would try to hold on to. I also think de la Rosa is definitely a guy they should keep if possible, and I don't think Workman is quite in the same class as the rest of those guys. Not totally sure Barnes is right now either, but that's all a question of opinions, so I'll leave it at that Deven Marrero is my favorite prospect since Dustin Pedroia haha, so I am obviously biased. Always loved the way he played the game, smooth in the field, tough at the plate, and seems to keep getting better. So yes I fully admit it is my personal opinion on Marrero, plus the fact that I don't think Xander can play Major League SS and it would be nice to finally have that spot solidified for once. Again though, definitely just my unabashed Marrero-fandom in terms of wanting to keep him. The bottom line that I think we can all agree on, is that this team needs to make a move for a bat at some point because this offense is dreadful and while I love our system, it is not brimming with power close to the big leagues.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 9, 2014 16:23:59 GMT -5
I have swilhart on my untouchable list. You don't trade a talent like this kid.
Ps: he could be the next great left fielder for us.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 9, 2014 16:36:20 GMT -5
Other than Swihart, I would have no issue trading anyone on the list for value. In fact, I believe we should trade Owens and Betts while their value is peaking, if it will land a premium bat. I would trade anyone for the right return, but I would hesitate trading Swihart, then Mookie, then Devers. But if you told me Mookie+Swihart+Owens+Devers would get you Bryce Harper or Puig or Stanton, I would do that. I would probably do any two from that list for Springer, too. I can't agree with that. You'd willingly trade 3 guys who have good chances to be average-to-good major leaguers at worst, with real chances for all star ceilings, and Devers, for whom it's too early to say much other than that he appears to be miles ahead of all of his age appropriate competition, for one star player? I'd be willing to give up 2 of them, plus other guys, but overall, if those guys contribute on average 2 WAR each per season for a few years in the majors, it's going to be very difficult for any one player to replace that, and that's before you take into account the cost/team control aspect
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 9, 2014 16:38:22 GMT -5
I would trade anyone for the right return, but I would hesitate trading Swihart, then Mookie, then Devers. But if you told me Mookie+Swihart+Owens+Devers would get you Bryce Harper or Puig or Stanton, I would do that. I would probably do any two from that list for Springer, too. I can't agree with that. You'd willingly trade 3 guys who have good chances to be average-to-good major leaguers at worst, with real chances for all star ceilings, and Devers, for whom it's too early to say much other than that he appears to be miles ahead of all of his age appropriate competition, for one star player? I'd be willing to give up 2 of them, plus other guys, but overall, if those guys contribute on average 2 WAR each per season for a few years in the majors, it's going to be very difficult for any one player to replace that, and that's before you take into account the cost/team control aspect A prospect is a possibility. Give me the sure thing.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 9, 2014 16:38:29 GMT -5
I have swilhart on my untouchable list. You don't trade a talent like this kid. Ps: he could be the next great left fielder for us. I agree that he should be pretty close to untouchable at least, but why do you want to move him off catcher? That's a huge part of his value- he looks like he can be a legitimate 2-way catcher, and that's really difficult to find, especially a young, cost-controlled one
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 9, 2014 16:45:13 GMT -5
A prospect is a possibility. Give me the sure thing. I get that perspective, but you have to take the cost into account. Thinking that the 4 of those guys could contribute 8 WAR total to the big league team in the next 2-3 years is, I would say, pretty conservative. Thinking that any of Stanton, Puig, or Harper could do that on a consistent basis is very optimistic- the only guy who's done that recently is Trout. I also think there are definitely injury concerns with Stanton and Harper, so referring to them as a sure thing is misleading. Finally, Puig is already on a pretty big contract, and his salary will only go up. Stanton has 2 years of team control left before he cashes in with a huge deal, and Harper has 3. I'd love to have any of them, but trading all of your top 3-4 prospects for one player doesn't seem like a good idea at all to me, especially when Owens and Swihart are probably pretty close to big league ready- I imagine they'll both spend the 2nd half in Pawtucket.
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 9, 2014 16:55:43 GMT -5
Will Shane Victorino ever play in a red sox uniform again? I think its time to move on from Shane and build toward the future. I will always appreciate what he did for the Sox last year. He was clutch, played great defense and was a leader in the clubhouse. However, he is injury prone and its time to move Shane.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 9, 2014 17:05:45 GMT -5
Will Shane Victorino ever play in a red sox uniform again? I think its time to move on from Shane and build toward the future. I will always appreciate what he did for the Sox last year. He was clutch, played great defense and was a leader in the clubhouse. However, he is injury prone and its time to move Shane. Well he is injured and just now going to begin a rehab assignment, so it's a bit too early for that discussion. I think they try and see if they can get anything out of him this year, depending on the injuries, and then re-evaluate in the offseason.
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Post by jmei on Jul 9, 2014 17:11:32 GMT -5
No one's going to want to acquire Victorino-- he's basically missed the entire year so far and doesn't look like he'll be back anytime soon. Might as well hold onto him and hope he stays healthy.
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Post by jmei on Jul 9, 2014 17:14:22 GMT -5
Thinking that the 4 of those guys could contribute 8 WAR total to the big league team in the next 2-3 years is, I would say, pretty conservative. Thinking that any of Stanton, Puig, or Harper could do that on a consistent basis is very optimistic- the only guy who's done that recently is Trout. Minor nit-pick-- this kind of accounting is tempting but generally misleading. You only get nine (OK, ten) players in the game at any given time. Having one 8 WAR player is more valuable than having four 2 WAR players because now you have three extra roster spots to load up with above-replacement-level players.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 9, 2014 17:22:15 GMT -5
No one's going to want to acquire Victorino-- he's basically missed the entire year so far and doesn't look like he'll be back anytime soon. Might as well hold onto him and hope he stays healthy. Norberto made this point earlier, that he should take this year to get better. If the Sox can get 80% of what he delivered last year in 2015, that's still very good. It's been a big, big hole in that lineup, but it happens sometimes.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 9, 2014 17:25:21 GMT -5
No one's going to want to acquire Victorino-- he's basically missed the entire year so far and doesn't look like he'll be back anytime soon. Might as well hold onto him and hope he stays healthy. Norberto made this point earlier, that he should take this year to get better. If the Sox can get 80% of what he delivered last year in 2015, that's still very good. It's been a big, big hole in that lineup, but it happens sometimes. Agreed, I'd keep him on a rehab schedule this year with lots of rest all with the goal of having him be your 2015 starting RF. This is a lost season anyway, so do everything you can to try to get one more productive year out of him in 2015 with Mookie in LF and JBJ in CF.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 9, 2014 17:26:06 GMT -5
No one's going to want to acquire Victorino-- he's basically missed the entire year so far and doesn't look like he'll be back anytime soon. Might as well hold onto him and hope he stays healthy. Agree. Victorino will be on the last year of his contract in 2015. A vet looking to cash in on one last payday is a good gamble. I've got no problem keeping him. As long as JBJ looks better in CF(And I think he will) and we get a LF. Nava's your 4th of and backup 1b, Holt is your super-utility guy.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 9, 2014 17:39:42 GMT -5
They don't necessarily need power, they just need good hitters. As I mentioned earlier, their problem this year is giving half their playing time to replacement-level hitters. Replace those with league-average guys, even if those guys don't hit for much power, and the offense will be one of the best in the league. Having power/middle-of-the-order/"run producers" is not a prerequisite to offensive success, and chasing power over other attributes is only going to result in dumb moves like overpaying for Nelson Cruz. If Stanton or CarGo or whomever is available for the right price, by all means, go for it, but don't force it if it's not there. Something else to consider: the lineup is getting very right-handed-heavy. The only lefty core pieces going forward are Ortiz, Nava, Bradley, Holt, and Cecchini. They could really use another good lefty bat. Unfortunately, those are hard to find-- the best bets in free agency are probably guys like Melky Cabrera (S), Colby Rasmus, Pablo Sandoval (S), and Chase Headley (S)-- and that's pretty much it for non-1B/DH starting-caliber hitters who hit lefty. That's why Carlos Gonzalez in particular holds some appeal. Don't forget Swihart. There is a fair probability the late 2015/2016 lineup features 2b/ss/catcher 3/4/5
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 9, 2014 17:54:39 GMT -5
I think if your the Sox you trade Koji, if you can get a top prospect i think their is no question you think long and hard about doing it. Koji will be 40 next year. so obviously his career is almost over. I would do that for Josh Bell in a heartbeat!! thoughts?
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 9, 2014 17:54:50 GMT -5
No one's going to want to acquire Victorino-- he's basically missed the entire year so far and doesn't look like he'll be back anytime soon. Might as well hold onto him and hope he stays healthy. Agree. Victorino will be on the last year of his contract in 2015. A vet looking to cash in on one last payday is a good gamble. I've got no problem keeping him. As long as JBJ looks better in CF(And I think he will) and we get a LF. Nava's your 4th of and backup 1b, Holt is your super-utility guy. I'm not so sure. If Victorino were to show health and some pop with a nice catch or two before the deadline, you could find a desperate team looking for of help jumping in. Unlikely, but not out of the question. I wouldn't mind him back, but I would hope he was motivated to work out this offseason and skipped the Poi tour.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2014 18:04:46 GMT -5
Thinking that the 4 of those guys could contribute 8 WAR total to the big league team in the next 2-3 years is, I would say, pretty conservative. Thinking that any of Stanton, Puig, or Harper could do that on a consistent basis is very optimistic- the only guy who's done that recently is Trout. Minor nit-pick-- this kind of accounting is tempting but generally misleading. You only get nine (OK, ten) players in the game at any given time. Having one 8 WAR player is more valuable than having four 2 WAR players because now you have three extra roster spots to load up with above-replacement-level players. Agree. Swihart, Betts & Devers may be very good MLB players one day but those 3 Ilsted are transformative. franchise guys. Superstars. You acquire one, you extend him qnd you stlll have plenty of nice pieces to build with, either by keeping or trading for positions of need - more likely some of both.
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Post by jdb on Jul 9, 2014 18:17:45 GMT -5
Agree with a previous post about Koji. He isn't in our long term plans and we should be able to get a good bit for him.
There's so much uncertainty with the left side of our IF that it's hard to get a read on next year. I don't think BC will make the same mistake and break in rookies at so many positions. Would you trust it going into Spring with Xander, Marrero, Cecchini and WMBs and let the situation unfold? Do you kick the tires on the Korean 3B keep X at SS? Trade for or sign a JJ Hardy/jimmy Rollins type?
I think I'd be comfortable with a CF/RF situation of JBJ/Betts/ Vic but one might go to fill another need. I think we get a vet (Willingham/Quinten) to play LF with Nava. Maybe we go the Cuban defector route here.
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