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Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 4, 2014 20:13:32 GMT -5
Holt isn't having quality AB's? doesn't have qualifying AB's. The ol' 3.1 thing.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 4, 2014 22:29:42 GMT -5
With Samardjia and Hammels reportedly heading to Oakland for the A's two top prospects plus Straily, this should help define the market for the likes of Lester and/or Lackey. We all know that Jeff and Hammels were on the block. The Sox strategy for July and beyond has yet to develop.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 5, 2014 10:07:30 GMT -5
With Samardjia and Hammels reportedly heading to Oakland for the A's two top prospects plus Straily, this should help define the market for the likes of Lester and/or Lackey. We all know that Jeff and Hammels were on the block. The Sox strategy for July and beyond has yet to develop. I think the Sox will not find a trade partner for Lester until the David Price situation plays out. If I were a team that wanted a starting lefty rental, I would take Price over Lester. Once the Price situation is resolved, then I expect the teams losing out on Price to call Boston. PS: Theo is collecting a tremendous stable of prospects. Let's hope most all those prospects develop into MLB players or he is seriously destroyed the Cubs organization for the rest of this decade. Mod edit: Please put all specific trade proposals in the Trade Proposal subforum. The reason we do this is to prevent the inevitable and non-productive back-and-forth debating the fairness of the trade. Thanks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 5, 2014 10:54:29 GMT -5
Trying to find a home for Drew ...
The one contender with an obviously inferior SS is a divisional rival that just had that guy voted to the All-Star team, so that's not happening.
According to ZipS (60% weight) and Steamer (40% weight) rest-of-season projections, the Pirates' Jordy Mercer projects to be as good as Drew, 1.5 WAR/150 G. Mercer is currently well under his ROS projection, while Drew's can be expected to go up if he hits at all in the next few weeks. Most importantly, Mercer has been a lefty-killer (.356 / .399 / .593 career) who is a black hole versus RHP (.237 / .284 / .349). The split this year is similar -- 858 vs. 594 OPS. The Pirates are currently 27.2% (BP) or 33.6% (FG) to make the playoffs, and this would be a perfect fit and significant upgrade.
The only other team with a possible interest would be the Reds, where Zack Cozart projects to 2.1 and has been underperforming that, but the Reds are probably more of a longshot (34.9% and 21.7%) and, crucially, Cozart has a mild platoon split.
These are of course the two teams that I thought should have gone after Drew in the off-season. I hadn't looked at the platoon splits then, and having done so it's all the more baffling that Boras couldn't find a home for Drew in Pittsburgh.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 5, 2014 15:49:12 GMT -5
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Post by justen on Jul 5, 2014 18:49:39 GMT -5
This makes some sense but I don't see it being anymore than Cherington waiting for Middlebrooks to rebuild value. I really don't see the Marlins moving Stanton unless they feel they have no chance next season.They have young players in the midst of developing and players got hurt. I can't see Cherington holding onto a player for any specific potential deals, especially if it were for a more-than-decent return. Who knows maybe there's a lot I don't know. I'm no GM just a common fan. Heyman just trying to create speculation in my mind.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 5, 2014 19:49:45 GMT -5
WMB's 0-3 with 2K' (so far) tonight isn't going to help build value. I hope that ship hasn't sailed.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 5, 2014 21:15:12 GMT -5
I'm still kind of confused about why other general managers would be after middlebrooks. The only thing he has done consistently is get hurt.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2014 21:21:15 GMT -5
I'm still kind of confused about why other general managers would be after middlebrooks. The only thing he has done consistently is get hurt. Third basemen and power are extremely rare.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 5, 2014 21:33:35 GMT -5
Maybe the scouts these other teams are sending to Pawtucket to watch middlebrooks are getting lost and winding up in Portland and thinking coyle should be playing 3B.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 5, 2014 21:41:36 GMT -5
I'm still kind of confused about why other general managers would be after middlebrooks. The only thing he has done consistently is get hurt. Third basemen and power are extremely rare. yes, ten qualifying MLB 3b currently slugging 400+, 5 slugging better than WMB's lifetime .425 (yes I known that has been trending way down), 5 with an OPS over 718.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 6, 2014 19:00:42 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 1h McAdam says on The Baseball Show that members of the organization say anything less than 5-2 against CWS & HOU and the Sox go into sell mode
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 1h McAdam says on The Baseball Show that members of the organization say anything less than 5-2 against CWS & HOU and the Sox go into sell mode
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Post by prospectjunkie21 on Jul 6, 2014 19:28:37 GMT -5
It is without question time to sell. This team got by last year w a bunch of middling veterans having career years. Sell off what they can. Nobody on this team should be off limits depending on the return. They need to look to 2015. Hanging around playing mediocre baseball so the front office can say that they are in it will only hurt this team's future.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 6, 2014 19:40:34 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 1h McAdam says on The Baseball Show that members of the organization say anything less than 5-2 against CWS & HOU and the Sox go into sell mode This is good news. My guess is something thoroughly mediocre, like 3-4 -especially after witnessing that sweep at the hands of the Cubbies at Fenway.
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Post by zil on Jul 6, 2014 20:11:59 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 1h McAdam says on The Baseball Show that members of the organization say anything less than 5-2 against CWS & HOU and the Sox go into sell mode Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 1h McAdam says on The Baseball Show that members of the organization say anything less than 5-2 against CWS & HOU and the Sox go into sell mode Well now they're guaranteed to go 7-0 or 6-1.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2014 21:22:58 GMT -5
I think trading Lester, Peavy, Badenhop, Drew, Ross, and Gomes are all obvious. Breslow is probable and you'd listen to offers for Doubront. Trading AJP may not be worth it, since you'd have to also pick up a catcher somewhere (which would be a AAA guy if you call up Butler), but that would be nice, too.
The only truly tough decisions, I think, are whether to trade Koji and Miller in hopes of re-signing them next year. To my mind, any negative ill-will you earn by making them uproot their lives and live out of a hotel for two months is offset by giving them a chance to pitch in the post-season. In which case, you might want to make a point of trading them to a front-runner rather than a longshot. You are sacrificing any home-town discount, but you get more than that back with the prospects.
There are in fact four likely playoff teams with closer problems. Two or three, in fact, ought to be interested in Miller as a closer ("ought" as in if they knew what was good for them, rather than I think it's likely). The first number here is WPA/LI per 80 games, the absolute measure of actual value to date, and the second is opponent-adjusted TAv allowed, the absolute value of the pitching devoid of context.
Tm Name WPA TAv Bos Uehara 2.30 .185 Bos Miller 0.54 .199 Det Nathan -0.55 .293 SF Romo -0.73 .235 LAN Jansen 0.23 .268 StL Rosent. 0.57 .241 Romo's been terrible lately and is a significant factor in their blowing an 8.5 gm lead in three weeks. The Tigers, alas, had the #28 system coming into this year with no OF or 1B ranked higher than #15; I haven't checked to see if any of those guys have broken out. The other teams all seem to have guys of interest.
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Post by oleary25 on Jul 7, 2014 19:40:38 GMT -5
I just read the STL Cardinals were scouting Peavy's last start.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 7, 2014 21:54:05 GMT -5
Via /photo/1 SELL!
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Post by larrycook on Jul 7, 2014 22:18:45 GMT -5
Time to sell.
Don't need to see what happens in the next six games.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 7, 2014 22:19:34 GMT -5
So we can post firesale rumors here now that its a game thread?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 7, 2014 22:56:31 GMT -5
Real rumors, yes. Made up stuff, no.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 8, 2014 6:27:14 GMT -5
I just read the STL Cardinals were scouting Peavy's last start. Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 1h w/Garcia in surgery, Gonzalez optioned, Wacha out, I hear what Gordon Edes hears:Cardinals want Jake Peavy
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jul 8, 2014 6:57:52 GMT -5
I just read the STL Cardinals were scouting Peavy's last start. Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 1h w/Garcia in surgery, Gonzalez optioned, Wacha out, I hear what Gordon Edes hears:Cardinals want Jake Peavy Fire up his duckboat, Bye Peavy. NEXT!!!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2014 7:38:09 GMT -5
If anyone doubts this is an extraordinary situation, ZiPS Rest of Season projections have the Sox as the 4th best team in baseball henceforth. And that still gives us us a 4.2% chance of making the playoffs! This is the definition of "digging yourself a deep hole."
If we trade Lester (1.7 projected WAR), Uehara (0.9), Peavy (0.8), Drew (0.5), Pierzynski (0.5), Gomes (0.3), Ross (0.3), Miller (0.2), and Badenhop (0.2), and replace them all with replacement level players, that drops us to the 22nd best team.
I've argued already for trading Lester, Uehara, and Miller and, if we so desire, re-signing them at market value -- essentially trading the cash value of the hometown discounts for prospects. But that should also significantly improve the draft pick.
I'm not sure what model of tank the tank.jpg is, nor do I know what model of tank is regarded as the finest ever designed. But that's what we should be aspiring to. You grab some serious prospects, you get a much better read on all the young talent, you improve your draft pick, and, amazingly enough, you are still in position to contend very seriously next year! How about that!
I tell you, alternating between years where nearly everything conceivable goes right and years where nearly everything conceivable goes wrong -- as agonizing as the latter is -- doesn't suck in the long run.
I'm reminded of the year (1996-97) David Robinson was hurt and the Spurs went first to worst -- and drafted Tim Duncan. We have a similar opportunity (although most of the value gained will be from the fire sale, if they're smart enough to deal the big guns).
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Post by okin15 on Jul 8, 2014 8:13:21 GMT -5
Of course, the best model of tank seems to have been designed by the Cubbies already. Agree that 5-2 seems like a reasonable minimum to keep waiting. Otherwise, what Eric and others have said. Get rid of anyone who's contract ends this year. Call up the kids (and the Herrera's of the world).
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