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Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 8, 2014 8:23:54 GMT -5
This is definitely sell time and sell hard. Play the kids, move Xander back to short and WMB at 3rd. Outfield of Mookie-Bradley-holt... Vasquez catching
I don't love the idea of Trading Lester as I want to resign him but it seems as though they may have screwed the pooch on that one already. If they move him they lose all chances of signing him as any home town discount is gone and they aren't, rightfully, giving him 7/150.
I know he's just a bullpen arm but I wouldn't trade Miller either, unless they got something over the top for him (top 50 prospect) which I don't think is likely.
Guys to be traded:
Pierzynski Drew Gomes Koji Lackey Peavy Doubront Lester (maybe if you know he can't be resigned)
Second half rotation really needs to include Ruby and Webster the possibly Ranaudo or Workman.
No excuses for Ruby not getting a regular turn and probably one of the others. Ruby should be well seasoned as a starter going into 2015.
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Post by godot on Jul 8, 2014 8:29:14 GMT -5
Do you really think Lester would fetch that much considering whoever gets him is renting him for a few month? A's gave much a lot but they get the pitcher for next year as well. There will be a number of teams wanting him, but how will they be willing to give unless they work out an agreement with him, which is doybtful
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 9:02:00 GMT -5
I know teams value prospects more highly now, and that Sabathia was probably a better pitcher in 2008 than Lester is now, but the Brewers gave up one guy who was a pretty highly touted prospect (Matt Laporta) and another guy who turned into a good major league player (michael Brantley) plus 2 other guys I've never heard of (a throw in pitcher and a bullpen arm). Laporta was actually mlb.com's 14th overall prospect at the time. So it's not unreasonable to imagine that a contending team that needs a boost in their rotation (and I think there are definitely a few out there) would give us at least a top-50 guy and some other pieces for Lester, and that's before considering that we could package him with a useful bullpen guy, and even potentially a prospect or two of our own from a position of depth (middle infield or pitching) to improve the return.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Jul 8, 2014 9:19:59 GMT -5
I know teams value prospects more highly now, and that Sabathia was probably a better pitcher in 2008 than Lester is now, but the Brewers gave up one guy who was a pretty highly touted prospect (Matt Laporta) and another guy who turned into a good major league player (michael Brantley) plus 2 other guys I've never heard of (a throw in pitcher and a bullpen arm). Laporta was actually mlb.com's 14th overall prospect at the time. So it's not unreasonable to imagine that a contending team that needs a boost in their rotation (and I think there are definitely a few out there) would give us at least a top-50 guy and some other pieces for Lester, and that's before considering that we could package him with a useful bullpen guy, and even potentially a prospect or two of our own from a position of depth (middle infield or pitching) to improve the return. The issue with that is there has been a complete overhaul in the draft since then. When Sabathia was traded it allowed you to trade for a rental and still offer him arbitration while getting draft pick compensation. With the new system that isn't allowed. So as opposed to the Sabathia trade where the Brewers were able to get a supplemental first round selection as well as what they thought would be a first rounder (wound up second if I recall), a team trading for Lester would get nothing if they can't re-sign him. If the rules were still the same absolutely his value would be pretty damn high. That just doesn't exist anymore and it is why the major returns are with guys that have more than a half year of control left.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 9:46:35 GMT -5
I looked through the last few years' worth of trade deadline deals for rental players, and the best comps I could find for a Lester deal were (2013) Matt Garza for Mike Olt, C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm, and a PTBNL and (2012) Zack Greinke for Jean Segura, John Hellweg, and Ariel Pena. Teams just aren't giving up elite prospects for half-year-rentals anymore; the headliners in both those deals were back-end top-50 types (Olt was ranked 44th on the 2013 BA T50, Segura was ranked 43rd on the 2012 BA T50).
Of course, the Giants did trade Zack Wheeler (#10 on the 2012 Midseason BA T50) for a half-season of Carlos Beltran, and all it takes is one team willing to go all-in for 2014, but I wouldn't expect a true blue-chipper (read: Taveras or Bundy or Pederson) in any Lester deal. Guys like Josh Bell or Stephen Piscotty might be in play, though.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2014 10:22:44 GMT -5
Possible landing spots for the catchers. By which I mean Ross, because AJP seems headed for the waiver wire.
First, when you factor in pitch framing, there are only a few contenders with a catcher as good as David Ross. And note that I didn't say backup catcher. Catcher, period. No wonder why Salty "lost his job" to Ross in the post-season.
This is projected ZiPS Rest of Season WAR, plus career pitch framing wins*, per 500 PA. (Yeah, I should have regressed the latter based on sample size, but most of these are big.)
7.3 Lucroy (4.3 + 3.3) 7.2 Posey (5.0 + 2.2) 6.8 McCann (3.2 + 3.7) 6.7 Martin (3.6 + 3.1) 6.3 Ross (1.5 + 4.9) 5.8 Y. Molina (4.5 + 1.4) 5.5 Gomes (3.8 + 1.8)
Now, Ross's projected WAR would be lower if he wasn't being platooned. But there are a number of contenders who could give Ross the occasional start versus RHP, especially with certain pitchers on the mound -- anyone who, like Lester, lives on the corners.
So, who can use Ross? The catch, of course, is that the team has to be savvy to pitch framing.
The Dodgers. Not only is their backup Drew Butera terrible (nothing at the plate, -1.2 framing), they have the weakest starter in A.J. Ellis (2.9 - 1.1). Ross would not only be a big upgrade at backup, they could have him start a bunch of postseason games. (Of course, Ellis is so mediocre they may be looking to get a full-time catcher, and I haven't given a thought as to who else might be out there.)
The Tigers. They're platooning Avila with Bryan Holaday (1.3 - 2.8), who has a reverse career split. They should be salivating at the thought of Ross.
The Mariners. They're 52% to make the playoffs, and John Buck is so bad (0.6 - 1.7) that Ross for two months might actually be worth a win. In fact, if any club seems like they might claim AJP (1.7 - 0.5) off of waivers, it's them.
The Angels. That they start Hank Conger (2.2 + 2.0) over Chris Iannetta (3.4 - 2.9) indicates they're on board with framing. They're platooning the switch-hitting Conger already, so Ross would slot right in.
Quite possibly The Braves. Christian Bethancourt has taken over from one of the worst pitch framers around, Gerald Laird (-3.6), and in a tiny and probably meaningless SS he's been just as bad. It's very conceivable that they'd rather have the veteran Ross for the post-season.
There are other contenders with bad backup catchers, but for various reasons they seem like somewhat less attractive landing spots.
Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are going to catch every post-season game, and the upgrade to Ross from Hector Sanchez (1.2 - 0.7) and Tony Cruz (1.4 - 0.9) respectively over the last two months projects to be half a win at most, and probably a bit less. Nick Hundley (2.1 - 1.4) has been raking since mid-June, so it's hard to see the Orioles being interested much. And Brett Hayes (0.0 - 3.3) is awful, but Salvador Perez plays as much as possible and it's hard to see the Royals upgrading backup catcher when they're 25% to make the playoffs.
*I used BP's framing data (runs saved per framing chance), and used a regression of chances versus PA to convert to wins at 9 runs per.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 8, 2014 10:25:50 GMT -5
We should drop it like it's hot. As long as we either make the playoffs or have a protected first round pick in any given year, then I'm fine. NEVER finish in the middle. There's a season and then there's the franchise.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2014 10:26:33 GMT -5
I looked through the last few years' worth of trade deadline deals for rental players, and the best comps I could find for a Lester deal were (2013) Matt Garza for Mike Olt, C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm, and a PTBNL and (2012) Zack Greinke for Jean Segura, John Hellweg, and Ariel Pena. Teams just aren't giving up elite prospects for half-year-rentals anymore; the headliners in both those deals were back-end top-50 types (Olt was ranked 44th on the 2013 BA T50, Segura was ranked 43rd on the 2012 BA T50). Of course, the Giants did trade Zack Wheeler (#10 on the 2012 Midseason BA T50) for a half-season of Carlos Beltran, and all it takes is one team willing to go all-in for 2014, but I wouldn't expect a true blue-chipper (read: Taveras or Bundy or Pederson) in any Lester deal. Guys like Josh Bell or Stephen Piscotty might be in play, though. Excellent data. I do think that some teams view Lester as a "big-game" pitcher, and maybe he gets you a 30's ranked prospect as a result, which is consistent with your take on Bell and Piscotty. My dreams of Pederson or Taveras involve Lester and Koji together, with the other team trying to become the overnight favorite to win it all.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2014 10:26:40 GMT -5
Possible landing spots for the catchers. By which I mean Ross, because AJP seems headed for the waiver wire. I don't see Ross being traded. He's going to be the mentor for CVaz. I do see AJP being traded by July 31 or waived on August 1.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2014 10:59:27 GMT -5
Possible landing spots for the catchers. By which I mean Ross, because AJP seems headed for the waiver wire. I don't see Ross being traded. He's going to be the mentor for CVaz. I do see AJP being traded by July 31 or waived on August 1. I can see that, but if two of those teams are hot on him and can be made to bid against each other a bit, you might be better off dealing him. I'm not sure how important the "mentoring" thing is when there are coaches, etc. who can do a similar job -- heck, Varitek's on the payroll, isn't he? Have him fly up from Georgia a couple of times. I agree, I would never trade him for what people would guess he was worth, but I think there's a real chance that they can get a "wow, they got that for Ross? That's crazy" return (which is to say a prospect people have heard of, probably a low minors upside guy). And I think that if the Dodgers wanted him along with Koji et al for a significant return, that would have to be on the table as well. It all depends on how many of the 4 or 5 teams that ought to lusting after him actually will be, because they're on board with pitch framing data. Pitch framing is a huge skill, and Jose Molina and Ross are to pitch-framing what Stanton and Cabrera are to right-handed power.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 11:18:32 GMT -5
I looked through the last few years' worth of trade deadline deals for rental players, and the best comps I could find for a Lester deal were (2013) Matt Garza for Mike Olt, C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm, and a PTBNL and (2012) Zack Greinke for Jean Segura, John Hellweg, and Ariel Pena. Teams just aren't giving up elite prospects for half-year-rentals anymore; the headliners in both those deals were back-end top-50 types (Olt was ranked 44th on the 2013 BA T50, Segura was ranked 43rd on the 2012 BA T50). Of course, the Giants did trade Zack Wheeler (#10 on the 2012 Midseason BA T50) for a half-season of Carlos Beltran, and all it takes is one team willing to go all-in for 2014, but I wouldn't expect a true blue-chipper (read: Taveras or Bundy or Pederson) in any Lester deal. Guys like Josh Bell or Stephen Piscotty might be in play, though. It'll be interesting to see if the 2nd wild card ups the value because more teams are buying.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 11:21:38 GMT -5
I don't see Ross being traded. He's going to be the mentor for CVaz. I do see AJP being traded by July 31 or waived on August 1. I can see that, but if two of those teams are hot on him and can be made to bid against each other a bit, you might be better off dealing him. I'm not sure how important the "mentoring" thing is when there are coaches, etc. who can do a similar job -- heck, Varitek's on the payroll, isn't he? Have him fly up from Georgia a couple of times. I agree, I would never trade him for what people would guess he was worth, but I think there's a real chance that they can get a "wow, they got that for Ross? That's crazy" return (which is to say a prospect people have heard of, probably a low minors upside guy). And I think that if the Dodgers wanted him along with Koji et al for a significant return, that would have to be on the table as well. It all depends on how many of the 4 or 5 teams that ought to lusting after him actually will be, because they're on board with pitch framing data. Pitch framing is a huge skill, and Jose Molina and Ross are to pitch-framing what Stanton and Cabrera are to right-handed power. Some of those teams are way behind the times with advanced stats.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 11:31:58 GMT -5
I looked through the last few years' worth of trade deadline deals for rental players, and the best comps I could find for a Lester deal were (2013) Matt Garza for Mike Olt, C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm, and a PTBNL and (2012) Zack Greinke for Jean Segura, John Hellweg, and Ariel Pena. Teams just aren't giving up elite prospects for half-year-rentals anymore; the headliners in both those deals were back-end top-50 types (Olt was ranked 44th on the 2013 BA T50, Segura was ranked 43rd on the 2012 BA T50). Of course, the Giants did trade Zack Wheeler (#10 on the 2012 Midseason BA T50) for a half-season of Carlos Beltran, and all it takes is one team willing to go all-in for 2014, but I wouldn't expect a true blue-chipper (read: Taveras or Bundy or Pederson) in any Lester deal. Guys like Josh Bell or Stephen Piscotty might be in play, though. Well if you peg Lester somewhere in between there, cause I think he's substantially better than Garza, but not as good as Greinke, that puts us in line for a pretty good return. As I said, I'm just looking for a top-50 guy and ideally a lottery ticket or 2, which lines up well with what the Cubs got for Garza. I know Keith Law was high on Edwards, and I think had him as a borderline top-100 guy at the time, although I remember Olt's stock being down because of an eye issue as well. I agree that Bundy is out of the question; wouldn't want Lester on the O's anyway. But is Pederson really in that tier yet? Taveras is a top 5 guy in all of baseball and has been for 2 years. Pederson became a top 50 guy this offseason/this season, depending on whose rankings you read/value, and I don't think it would be out of the question for Lester and some other useful players (bullpen/catching help) could get him from LA
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 8, 2014 12:08:26 GMT -5
If Pederson is off the table in Price talks I can't imagine he would be available for Lester.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 8, 2014 12:46:03 GMT -5
Jayson Stark ?@jaysonst 1m
As @gordonedes reported, also hearing buzz that Peavy to #STLCards could happen "quick." Only Bos game Cards scouted was game Peavy pitched
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2014 12:54:35 GMT -5
Specific speculation on a Peavy trade to STL is ongoing in the trade proposal forum FYI.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 14:56:43 GMT -5
If Pederson is off the table in Price talks I can't imagine he would be available for Lester. I suppose so, but if it were me, and I had a chance at Price I would absolutely trade Pederson. I'd listen to Lester deals including him as well. It's not like ace/borderline ace lefties are available every year. Although I suppose with their current rotation and Urias in the minors, it makes some sense that they want to make their outfield a little cheaper than the $80m-ish they're paying 4 guys to be mediocre or Yasiel Puig this year
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 14:58:29 GMT -5
If Pederson is off the table in Price talks I can't imagine he would be available for Lester. I suppose so, but if it were me, and I had a chance at Price I would absolutely trade Pederson. I'd listen to Lester deals including him as well. It's not like ace/borderline ace lefties are available every year. Although I suppose with their current rotation and Urias in the minors, it makes some sense that they want to make their outfield a little cheaper than the $80m-ish they're paying 4 guys to be mediocre or Yasiel Puig this year It probably has to do with the Dodgers saying "enough is enough" with going after every name available than anything else. They seem to be drawing the line at giving up Pederson or Urias. They cannot have $20 million players at every position.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 8, 2014 15:14:56 GMT -5
Nicolas Stellini @stellinitweets Follow Randal Grichuk scratched from #Cardinals AAA lineup. May be involved in #RedSox Peavy trade.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 8, 2014 15:29:24 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 8, 2014 15:34:38 GMT -5
I wonder how much of any Peavy trade is to get chips that maybe move to another team for a larger package (aka, offseason Stanton)
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 8, 2014 15:44:59 GMT -5
allen craig out of lineup
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 16:05:20 GMT -5
Let's consolidate all St. Louis/Boston trade discussion to that thread in the trade proposal subforum. If there's more concrete news about a possible trade, I'll move it over to these forums, but at this point, it's still mostly speculation.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 8, 2014 17:24:21 GMT -5
Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 1 min. Ben Cherington on NESN: "If we can't close that gap, we have to be honest with ourselves."
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 8, 2014 17:51:59 GMT -5
@redsoxstats Cherington on NESN: "At some point we may need to be realistic and focus on helping the 2015 team. We are not at that point yet."
Sure sounds like internally they've hit the "we aren't going to contend in 2014" point, but won't be there publicly until they really make a "sell" move
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