SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by artfuldodger on Jul 13, 2014 8:43:33 GMT -5
Is Brock Holt a long term keeper or someone that the Red Sox trade now at maximum value?
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Jul 13, 2014 9:39:37 GMT -5
I wouldn't let Holt hold up a deal if he could help, as a secondary piece, bring back a top pitcher or power bat but I think he could be a very good utility guy going forward. I'd rather not deal him but would be okay with it.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2014 10:36:49 GMT -5
Holt is in the category of having potentially more value to the team than you can get back for him. He's not old but he's not "young" either and 3 months ago could've been had for a bag of balls. No one is trading anything of real value for him. You easily keep him.
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Jul 13, 2014 10:41:28 GMT -5
If someone offers value, you trade him; if not, you keep him.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2014 11:01:49 GMT -5
Yeah, the obvious answer is you trade him if another team offers you more than what you think he's worth. But how much is Holt worth?
An interesting way to gauge that is to figure out where he ranks amongst the other young infielders in the Red Sox system. For instance, where would Holt rank amongst the following players for you: Holt, Middlebrooks, Marrero, Coyle, Cecchini?
(I would rank their value as: Middlebrooks, Marrero, Holt, Cecchini, Coyle.)
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Jul 13, 2014 11:09:20 GMT -5
I would rank them the same way.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2014 11:28:28 GMT -5
(If you rank him that way, his value would roughly be that of a back-end top 100 guy.)
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 13, 2014 12:38:24 GMT -5
An interesting way to gauge that is to figure out where he ranks amongst the other young infielders in the Red Sox system. For instance, where would Holt rank amongst the following players for you: Holt, Middlebrooks, Marrero, Coyle, Cecchini? (I would rank their value as: Middlebrooks, Marrero, Holt, Cecchini, Coyle.) It may be interesting, but is it useful? If another team were looking to trade for Holt, I would think it would be because they are looking for a proven (in their mind at least) MLB-caliber 2B/3B, not because they are looking for a prospect or a lottery ticket. In theory it should be a continuum but in practice it seems to me like there are two entirely seperate markets that work in different ways. As you yourself have pointed out numerous times, prospect-for-prospect trades just do not happen. I think you can get prospects for Brock Holt. You cannot get prospects for Sean Coyle. I feel it almost distracts from the discussion at hand but in my estimation WMB has dropped below Holt and Marrero at this point.Now, the Brockstar is on pace for a 4 WAR season this year. On the one hand, there are plenty of good reasons to think that it will be his best season ever, and he will never have another season above, say, 2.5 WAR. On the other hand, he is 26 years old ... it would be ridiculous to write off the possibility that he might have an even better season in the future entirely. I feel pretty comfortable at this point in saying that Holt's floor is that of a second-division starting 2B/3B who is cost-controlled for another 5 (I think?) years. That doesn't sound very impressive but it is actually a valuable asset. Nevertheless if the Red Sox get a trade offer valuing him only at that level, they should not take it, because there is upside potential remaining that you would want compensation for missing out on. Holt is by no means untouchable. But there would have to be a pretty good offer for him to justify trading him away... an offer that I don't think any other team would be willing to make at this point.
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Jul 13, 2014 13:00:09 GMT -5
I feel pretty comfortable at this point in saying that Holt's floor is that of a second-division starting 2B/3B who is cost-controlled for another 5 (I think?) years. That doesn't sound very impressive but it is actually a valuable asset. Nevertheless if the Red Sox get a trade offer valuing him only at that level, they should not take it, because there is upside potential remaining that you would want compensation for missing out on. I think his floor is as a AAAA guy. His likely value is as a cost-controlled utility guy. I don't really see upside potential from here - I think he is as high a value as he'll ever be. While he may continue on his current pace, it is more likely that he will come back to earth at some point.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2014 14:06:15 GMT -5
I'm not really sure that another team would see Holt as an established veteran; certainly no more so than a guy like Middlebrooks. You're right that it's tough to compare him to a guy like Coyle, but I think it's even more unfair to lump him in with guys like Lester or Uehara. He's certainly closer to the Coyle group than the Lester group; he's only got a few hundred PAs of above-replacement-level MLB production and comes with five years of team control. Indeed, that's exactly why I think he'd be tough to trade for prospects-- I'm not sure a contender would give up value for a guy who might just be a one-year wonder.
Instead, as a trade asset, I think he fits more as a part of a package for a more established veteran (i.e., as the second or third piece in a trade for, say, Cliff Lee or Carlos Gonzalez). In that respect, comparing him to those other young infielders may be useful, though you're absolutely right to say that it's kind of an awkward comp.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 13, 2014 14:22:07 GMT -5
Well, I said I think you could trade him for prospects. Really it would just take one team in need of a 2B/3B to decide they had seen enough of Holt to be confident in him.
But the reality is probably, in my two-market theory, Holt is in the twilight zone between the two markets, where players just do not get traded, period.
I'm sure the Red Sox will hang on to him for the remainder of this season anyway, and his performance will have a big influence on what happens in the offseason. I for one would be quite happy if we could drop the constant rotation of Ciriaco and Herrera types and have Holt as the first player off our bench for the next 5 years.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2014 14:41:08 GMT -5
Yeah, I agree that guys in Holt's situations generally just do not get traded. Mike Carp was another guy in that twilight zone where teams weren't set enough on him to trade for him and install him as the starter, but he had too much potential to just give away. (Holt, of course, has the added advantage of being defensively flexible enough to be useful to the Red Sox and not just a clogged roster spot.)
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2014 17:01:01 GMT -5
I'm keeping Holt and think he's an every-day starter for us. Just have to find a position for him. Lots to choose from. Maybe he's our shortstop next year.
|
|
|
Post by bbscouts on Jul 13, 2014 19:32:45 GMT -5
I can't help but admire the way Brock Holt has flat out won a job this year. He is hitting to all fields better than anyone else on the team and I think with his professional approach he will eventually draw more walks. I hope he isn't traded by the Red Sox. It would remind me of the year Reddick impressed in 2011 and became a 5 WAR player for Oakland in 2012 while the Red Sox got a broken down reliever in Bailey. If Billy Beane calls, hang up on him please.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 14, 2014 6:09:34 GMT -5
Brock Holt shouldn't be looked at as an infielder anymore. He's proven hen can step in and play literally every spot 3-9 without it affecting him at the plate. He's got a unique personality.
On his own, his trade value is low and he's a young cost controlled player, so even if you can get a backend 100 guy for him what's the point exactly?
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jul 14, 2014 9:28:44 GMT -5
I don't trade Holt unless I get overwhelmed by the trade although it would take a ton to overwhelm Holt's value.
He might make a bid difference if you include him with another player. Teams seem reluctant to trade for Lester/Peavy, because it is only 1 year and they can't get a draft pick back, but if you add Holt you are at least giving them some team control back. Also helps that the 2B market is pretty weak and Holt has also shown great versatility. But I doubt anyone see's him as a 327/371/463 hitter.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 14, 2014 12:37:30 GMT -5
I have a strong feeling that Holt is not hitting that far over his head. He is going to be a natural high-BABIP guy because of his speed, LD and IFFB rates and it has been pretty high other than his poor 2013 AAA season. I also think his K-rate has room to improve based on his minor league #s, which could offset the small drop in his BABIP from .395 to the more expected .350ish. It's also pretty important to the Red Sox that he's not a platoon player, especially with his ability to play anywhere on the field.
This is not another case of waiting for Iglesias to turn into a pumpkin IMO.
I wouldn't trade him for Melancon and Pimentel.
|
|
|