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2014 Trade Deadline Thread - Discussion Only
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 10:36:03 GMT -5
I have to imagine that someone like Lackey would be way more valuable to a smaller market team than someone like the Dodgers. I'd bet Pittsburgh would give up more for him.
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atzar
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Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jul 29, 2014 10:40:32 GMT -5
You are crazy, taking just part of what I said to prove your point. I said at 33 you should be able to get a prospect that has the upside of Pederson, not Pederson himself. I went on to say that prospect wouldn't be as safe of a prospect as Pederson, would be much further away and might not be at a position of need like Pederson. I only said the prospect would have the upside of a Pederson. For a person telling me to make sure I read the post before commenting on them, you sure do look like a fool. Odds are very, very low on the #33 pick in any draft becoming the caliber of prospect Pederson is now. You're greatly understating the difference in value between an elite, close-to-the-majors prospect and a draft pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 29, 2014 10:43:12 GMT -5
You are crazy, taking just part of what I said to prove your point. I said at 33 you should be able to get a prospect that has the upside of Pederson, not Pederson himself. I went on to say that prospect wouldn't be as safe of a prospect as Pederson, would be much further away and might not be at a position of need like Pederson. I only said the prospect would have the upside of a Pederson. For a person telling me to make sure I read the post before commenting on them, you sure do look like a fool. 7 Million dollars is nothing to the Red Sox, stop acting like them saving that money would having anything to do with trading Lester, it will not. I didn't see the (that Lester's Salary and signing bonus). So sorry, but its a dumb point. The Red Sox are a large market team, they are not going to be trading players so they can save 7 million dollars. You also don't look at the net benefit of getting a much larger draft pool to sign your players by also having pick number 33 or whatever it would be. I think you'd be really fortunate to wind up with a top 20 prospect when he reaches AAA at #33. Like really really fortunate. I'd take Pederson and it's not close. I'd probably trade our top 4 picks of 2014 for Pederson. If the choice is simply the number 33 pick or Pederson, its a no brainer you take Pederson. My point was that the player picked at 33 would have the upside to become an elite prospect. 2011 draft pick number 36 Henry Owens, Pick #40 Jacky Bradley. Lets just agree to disagree about the benefits of keeping Lester. You think very highly of Pederson, but he's done nothing in the majors. There is a major risk still with Pederson.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 10:44:41 GMT -5
I think you'd be really fortunate to wind up with a top 20 prospect when he reaches AAA at #33. Like really really fortunate. I'd take Pederson and it's not close. I'd probably trade our top 4 picks of 2014 for Pederson. If the choice is simply the number 33 pick or Pederson, its a no brainer you take Pederson. My point was that the player picked at 33 would have the upside to become an elite prospect. 2011 draft pick number 36 Henry Owens, Pick #40 Jacky Bradley. Lets just agree to disagree about the benefits of keeping Lester. You think very highly of Pederson, but he's done nothing in the majors. There is a major risk still with Pederson. There is much less risk in Pederson than there is in the 2015 #33 pick.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 29, 2014 10:44:47 GMT -5
And if no one is willing to give this. "Massive haul" you are talking about, do we keep them? Yes I would keep him. Chances of resigning him are better if we keep him. I'd trade Lackey for Joc Pederson and filler, but not Lester. With the lack of elite pitching on the market, and so many teams looking for pitching, I have to think one team would make us a lot better offer then just Joc Pederson and filler. Sorry dude, you are just way out of touch with the reality of the trade market. The most recent comparison for our situation the Angels traded Jean Segura, their #1 prospect at the time and filler for 2 months of Zack Greinke. Joc Pederson is seemingly more highly regarded than Segura. If we can get a top 20 prospect for Jon Lester, you do that 100% of the time.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 29, 2014 10:44:53 GMT -5
Why wouldn't we trade Uehara? Seems to be a huge market for him and it would seem we could get a huge return. Just guessing, but I think maybe the Sox think Uehara in 2015 would be worth a one-year contract at the qualifying offer rate ... Uehara would pretty much have to accept that deal, and it's a chance they'd only have if he's on the team. I heard that mentioned last night and kind of think it's worth the gamble myself. Whether he accepts or not I'd be okay with it but think there's about an 80% chance he accepts.
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Post by bsout2 on Jul 29, 2014 10:45:21 GMT -5
Why wouldn't we trade Uehara? Seems to be a huge market for him and it would seem we could get a huge return. Just guessing, but I think maybe the Sox think Uehara in 2015 would be worth a one-year contract at the qualifying offer rate ... Uehara would pretty much have to accept that deal, and it's a chance they'd only have if he's on the team. Read this yesterday somewhere. Said the Red Sox would be happy brining him back at one year using the qualifying offer. Makes sense, they lock up the closer role another year without making a long term commitment.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 29, 2014 10:46:36 GMT -5
Why wouldn't we trade Uehara? Seems to be a huge market for him and it would seem we could get a huge return. Just guessing, but I think maybe the Sox think Uehara in 2015 would be worth a one-year contract at the qualifying offer rate ... Uehara would pretty much have to accept that deal, and it's a chance they'd only have if he's on the team. Slocumb for Lowe + Tek??? Anyone? Anyone?
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 29, 2014 10:48:55 GMT -5
I have to imagine that someone like Lackey would be way more valuable to a smaller market team than someone like the Dodgers. I'd bet Pittsburgh would give up more for him. I'd imagine that if we traded Lackey to the Pirates he'd retire after this year. It was posted that the Angels had interest in him but it's a shame they literally have nothing to offer us for him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 29, 2014 10:48:56 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 10m
MLB Network Radio is all over Lester today, currently discussing idea of trade to Pirates for Tyler Glasnow and Josh Bell. Farrell on later.
That would be beyond sweet but keep in mind the source.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 29, 2014 10:50:41 GMT -5
Since no one is discussing it, if Toronto is actually the most aggressive in pursing Lester, who are we looking at from them? Norris + Pompey? There system is good, but not exactly outrageously deep.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 10:52:35 GMT -5
I have to imagine that someone like Lackey would be way more valuable to a smaller market team than someone like the Dodgers. I'd bet Pittsburgh would give up more for him. I'd imagine that if we traded Lackey to the Pirates he'd retire after this year. It was posted that the Angels had interest in him but it's a shame they literally have nothing to offer us for him. I bet Lackey won't retire no matter what happens.
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Post by thegoo13 on Jul 29, 2014 11:03:23 GMT -5
To me Lackey makes a lot of sense for Pittsburgh and KC. Maybe more than Lester for them? As Spier points out in an article today maybe a 2 year extension at 16, 17 million total could be worked out? KC is losing Shields and won't be able to resign him. Will get the comp pick for him. They could afford Lackey at that extension and he would basically replace Shields for the next two years. Pittsburgh could slot him in at #2 under the same type of arrangement?
That might be more attractive? He does not have Lester's post season pedigree but he has a strong one no the less.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Jul 29, 2014 11:04:51 GMT -5
Since no one is discussing it, if Toronto is actually the most aggressive in pursing Lester, who are we looking at from them? Norris + Pompey? There system is good, but not exactly outrageously deep. Amfox has a list that he would go after in the trade proposal forum. He said any deal would have to start with either Norris or Sanchez. Assuming Stroman is off the table.
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Post by myleskennefick on Jul 29, 2014 11:05:54 GMT -5
What's the difference between giving Koji a qualifying offer and trading him then offering him a 1 year contract for the amount of a qualifying offer (other than the draft pick we wouldn't get in the latter scenario if he were to sign elsewhere)?
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Post by semperfisox on Jul 29, 2014 11:07:38 GMT -5
Josh Bell...me likey
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 11:08:15 GMT -5
What's the difference between giving Koji a qualifying offer and trading him then offering him a 1 year contract for the amount of a qualifying offer (other than the draft pick we wouldn't get in the latter scenario if he were to sign elsewhere)? No difference. Koji has like a week to decide on the QO. Then we could leave it open. He'd most likely sign it before then anyway. He wouldn't get more than that, especially with a draft pick attached.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 29, 2014 11:10:05 GMT -5
My own opinion here. Out of all the players I watched during spring training, Joc Pederson was hands down the best looking prospect. If you've not watched him hit or play the outfield, do it now. That's what YouTube is for. The Sox could be looking at a future lineup that would include potential all-stars in LF, RF, and 3B, gold-glovers at SS, CF, 2B, and some combo of those awards with not ONE but TWO catchers. Vazquez already looks like the best defensive backstop to come along in quite a while. All that is before we get to the ridiculous number of potential starters, talk about a jam-up. You might be able to construct two 5-man pitching rotations from what they've stockpiled at this point. I'm willing to sit back and see how this all unfolds, but one thing is for certain: we're watching the creation of what might be a very competitive lineup for the long haul. While I understand the pain from the possible loss of Lester, there will still be an opportunity to bid up for his services. The question comes down to this: how many good, very good, and great players do you need to create a team that wins a lot more often than they lose? Let's bring Beane in here to discuss this... Add: ...AND I forgot the super-duper ultra-utility guy, someone who can play all the outfield and infield positions at average or better.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 29, 2014 11:14:19 GMT -5
What's the difference between giving Koji a qualifying offer and trading him then offering him a 1 year contract for the amount of a qualifying offer (other than the draft pick we wouldn't get in the latter scenario if he were to sign elsewhere)? Racist alert.... I had a career which required interaction with Japanese and now I live where there are lots of Japanese immigrants. I'm convinced that no countries population feels a bigger obligation to their employers than the Japanese. Trade him and he has a new employer. . . . Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 3m Major league source: #RedSox listening to "overpay offers" for Lester - bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2014/07/the_search_for_power_what_red_sox_figure_to_seek_in_a …
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 29, 2014 11:14:22 GMT -5
Just guessing, but I think maybe the Sox think Uehara in 2015 would be worth a one-year contract at the qualifying offer rate ... Uehara would pretty much have to accept that deal, and it's a chance they'd only have if he's on the team. Slocumb for Lowe + Tek??? Anyone? Anyone? Wash you're mouth out. Slocumb was not fit to hold Uehara's glove. Come to think of it, that thing is so damn big I might have problems with it also.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 29, 2014 11:15:02 GMT -5
I'd imagine that if we traded Lackey to the Pirates he'd retire after this year. It was posted that the Angels had interest in him but it's a shame they literally have nothing to offer us for him. I bet Lackey won't retire no matter what happens. Well he might not, but he's vaguely threatened to (I imagine to gain leverage for a renegotiation). I think he wouldn't fetch the return that people think because teams would be wary of renegotiating. That said, I think if a team were willing to pay him even $5m for next year as opposed to $500K, I doubt he walks away from that + the possibility of another decent sized short term deal the year after. I could definitely see him walking away from $500K though, even if it meant taking a year off
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 29, 2014 11:26:46 GMT -5
Yes I would keep him. Chances of resigning him are better if we keep him. I'd trade Lackey for Joc Pederson and filler, but not Lester. With the lack of elite pitching on the market, and so many teams looking for pitching, I have to think one team would make us a lot better offer then just Joc Pederson and filler. Sorry dude, you are just way out of touch with the reality of the trade market. The most recent comparison for our situation the Angels traded Jean Segura, their #1 prospect at the time and filler for 2 months of Zack Greinke. Joc Pederson is seemingly more highly regarded than Segura. If we can get a top 20 prospect for Jon Lester, you do that 100% of the time. Hey dude, thanks for proving my point. Angels gave up 1, 7 and 14 prospects in their system to get Grienke. That's not Segura and filler, that's two legit prospects. Maybe they didn't pan out, but they were much more then just filler. Both John Hellweg and Ariel Pena are still on 40 man roster in minors. John Hellweg was seem as having the upside of a #2 or 3 starter, a former relieve that they switched to starter. Pena had just pitched in the futures games and was said to have the upside of a top arm at the back end of your pen. Starting the season before he was traded Segura was ranked 44, Pederson was ranked 41 to start this season. That trade just shows that its going to take a lot more then just Pederson to get Lester. Thank You
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 29, 2014 11:29:05 GMT -5
I'd ask for Norris and Barreto from Toronto.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Jul 29, 2014 11:34:34 GMT -5
My own opinion here. Out of all the players I watched during spring training, Joc Pederson was hands down the best looking prospect. If you've not watched him hit or play the outfield, do it now. That's what YouTube is for. The Sox could be looking at a future lineup that would include potential all-stars in LF, RF, and 3B, gold-glovers at SS, CF, 2B, and some combo of those awards with not ONE but TWO catchers. Vazquez already looks like the best defensive backstop to come along in quite a while. All that is before we get to the ridiculous number of potential starters, talk about a jam-up. You might be able to construct two 5-man pitching rotations from what they've stockpiled at this point. I'm willing to sit back and see how this all unfolds, but one thing is for certain: we're watching the creation of what might be a very competitive lineup for the long haul. While I understand the pain from the possible loss of Lester, there will still be an opportunity to bid up for his services. The question comes down to this: how many good, very good, and great players do you need to create a team that wins a lot more often than they lose? Let's bring Beane in here to discuss this... Add: ...AND I forgot the super-duper ultra-utility guy, someone who can play all the outfield and infield positions at average or better. All of that is well and good but you don't expand upon the pitching. We have a wealth of prospects but projections are not so kind on many of them with our best pitching prospect being a #2 (Not that that isn't good mind you). However with the teams reluctance to spend large money if those guys don't pan out then you are in major trouble. Secondly you could very well have a bust or two if you get Pederson and wind up with two mediocre MLB players at 3B, LF and RF which leaves you hurting for offense significantly. The sound of it is all well and good but we are talking potential All-Stars none which have shown too much at the MLB level, albeit with very limited or no MLB experience.
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duda
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Post by duda on Jul 29, 2014 11:39:22 GMT -5
kind of ancillary to this, but assuming Lester is not resigned, and with about 75 million coming off the books, does anybody see a 10-15 million dollar, minimum payroll reduction next year? I still think they will have to trade for a top end pitcher (Hamels?) that will eat a big chunk of money and bring back Koji at approx 15 mill per year, I think they will also grab another veteran pitcher for somewhere around 8-10 million. After that, is it possible they go with this: C. Vasquez, Ross 1b. Napoli, Veteran short money type, equivalent to Overbay-Carp 2b: Pedroia SS: Bogaerts/Marrerro 3b: Middlebrooks/Bogaerts supersub: Holt/Betts Lf: Nava/Willingham type CF: JBJ RF: Victorino With Ben not likely to spend on the bullpen aside from Koji, and introducing at least two mimimum salary guys into the rotation, he may have difficulty getting the payroll anywhere close to this years number. The only disturbance of this premise I could see is if they trade for Stanton and lock him up long term.
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