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Post by telson13 on Mar 19, 2016 9:20:23 GMT -5
Not at all. There have been opinions both ways as he moved through the system. There still are. I think it's more a discussion about his ceiling than his floor. He's a pretty safe bet to play in the majors. Yeah, I always thought he'd be a cheap 1b alternative, a 2nd-division starter who the Sox could plug in for a couple years, save some $, and who wouldn't "hurt" the team. Kind of a 0.5-1.5 WAR guy. But his consistency with the bat across multiple levels at a fairly young age has been really encouraging. And the power he's shown this spring has me re-evaluating that ceiling. It's everything: stats, scouting, work ethic reports.
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Post by jmei on Mar 19, 2016 10:32:00 GMT -5
Those are some aggressively optimistic projections ya'll are slapping on Travis, with the batting average standing out to me the most. It is very, very hard to hit .300 in the majors these days-- over the past three years, only 15 qualified hitters have done so, for instance. Travis has hit for nice batting averages in the minors so far, but that's what an advanced college hitter with a good approach is supposed to do versus low minors pitching. He's not a plus bat speed guy (SP.com says solid-average)-- he instead gets by with a compact swing, a flat swing path, and a good approach, and while those are nice traits to have, he'll be tested once he faces more advanced velocity and better offspeed stuff. I'd semi-optimistically project his batting average more in the .280 range, and once you do that, his overall projected line (something in the .280/.340/.440 range) starts to raise questions about his ceiling again (the league-average 1B hit .259/.336/.444 last year).
I also wouldn't overreact to two spring training home runs. We knew he had raw plus power-- it's just a question of whether he can get to it in games without losing the compact swing and swing path which allows him to hit for good averages. Two nice home runs in spring training off fringy relievers doesn't do much to answer that question for me. It's still an open question whether he can combine the power and the average for a sustained period of time.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 19, 2016 11:51:44 GMT -5
The evaluations seem not to have factored in that "raw plus power". I've heavily discounted the FanGraphs analysis, I have to say, after having watched the swing. He can in fact muscle a ball very effectively. The issue you bring up is, nonetheless, the most important one: he hasn't been doing this against the sort of pitching he'll see in the majors, not even close.
As for the number of players at .300 or above, that's about to change again. MLB has let it be known they'd like to shrink the strike zone. I'm going to withhold judgement on what he might or might not do in the majors at this point. There isn't enough evidence from AA, none from AAA, and MLB will never stop jerking the game around. They've been doing that for 100+ years and they will continue doing it.
He appears to have an excellent feel for the strike zone, and some understanding of what pitchers will try to do. He also has a very good BB/K ratio, something that bodes well as he goes up the ladder. For now, I think the Sox feel he's a keeper.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 19, 2016 12:02:44 GMT -5
Those are some aggressively optimistic projections ya'll are slapping on Travis, with the batting average standing out to me the most. It is very, very hard to hit .300 in the majors these days-- over the past three years, only 15 qualified hitters have done so, for instance. Travis has hit for nice batting averages in the minors so far, but that's what an advanced college hitter with a good approach is supposed to do versus low minors pitching. He's not a plus bat speed guy (SP.com says solid-average)-- he instead gets by with a compact swing, a flat swing path, and a good approach, and while those are nice traits to have, he'll be tested once he faces more advanced velocity and better offspeed stuff. I'd semi-optimistically project his batting average more in the .280 range, and once you do that, his overall projected line (something in the .280/.340/.440 range) starts to raise questions about his ceiling again (the league-average 1B hit .259/.336/.444 last year). I also wouldn't overreact to two spring training home runs. We knew he had raw plus power-- it's just a question of whether he can get to it in games without losing the compact swing and swing path which allows him to hit for good averages. Two nice home runs in spring training off fringy relievers doesn't do much to answer that question for me. It's still an open question whether he can combine the power and the average for a sustained period of time. That's why I posted the scouting report and the team's view of his future power.
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Sam Travis
Mar 19, 2016 16:45:54 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by larrycook on Mar 19, 2016 16:45:54 GMT -5
Watching him this spring, I never realized how strong his wrists are. Very impressive swing with a quick bat, but add in super strong wrists and great eye hand coordination and wow, what a line drive hitter he is.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 19, 2016 17:50:23 GMT -5
Those are some aggressively optimistic projections ya'll are slapping on Travis, with the batting average standing out to me the most. It is very, very hard to hit .300 in the majors these days-- over the past three years, only 15 qualified hitters have done so, for instance. Travis has hit for nice batting averages in the minors so far, but that's what an advanced college hitter with a good approach is supposed to do versus low minors pitching. He's not a plus bat speed guy (SP.com says solid-average)-- he instead gets by with a compact swing, a flat swing path, and a good approach, and while those are nice traits to have, he'll be tested once he faces more advanced velocity and better offspeed stuff. I'd semi-optimistically project his batting average more in the .280 range, and once you do that, his overall projected line (something in the .280/.340/.440 range) starts to raise questions about his ceiling again (the league-average 1B hit .259/.336/.444 last year). I also wouldn't overreact to two spring training home runs. We knew he had raw plus power-- it's just a question of whether he can get to it in games without losing the compact swing and swing path which allows him to hit for good averages. Two nice home runs in spring training off fringy relievers doesn't do much to answer that question for me. It's still an open question whether he can combine the power and the average for a sustained period of time. I am not aware that anyone said Travis would hit .300 plus at the major league level..and for the reasons you advance..... I think that he will hit .300 plus in AAA. Your MLB projection would be a very solid player. I may be drinking the Koolaide, but I believe that he will do better...also based on the reasons you assert plus his single-minded work ethic. As for power production, fringy relievers or not...his bombs were harder struck (by reports) than any other Sox hitter this spring. A guy 6' 190 lbs. who has average bat speed doesn't hit many that far. Indeed, news reports in the past few days suggest that the 'average bat speed' label may be faulty. Beyond that, statements are made all the time that players often 'don't come in to their power' until the mid twenties or that 'power comes last'. Well this guy has power now. His disciplined approach and Pedroia like hand-eye optimize his chances to use it. If swing path has compromised prior hr numbers, let's hope some slight adjustment is made that fires up the chicks.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 20, 2016 0:16:30 GMT -5
Those are some aggressively optimistic projections ya'll are slapping on Travis, with the batting average standing out to me the most. It is very, very hard to hit .300 in the majors these days-- over the past three years, only 15 qualified hitters have done so, for instance. Travis has hit for nice batting averages in the minors so far, but that's what an advanced college hitter with a good approach is supposed to do versus low minors pitching. He's not a plus bat speed guy (SP.com says solid-average)-- he instead gets by with a compact swing, a flat swing path, and a good approach, and while those are nice traits to have, he'll be tested once he faces more advanced velocity and better offspeed stuff. I'd semi-optimistically project his batting average more in the .280 range, and once you do that, his overall projected line (something in the .280/.340/.440 range) starts to raise questions about his ceiling again (the league-average 1B hit .259/.336/.444 last year). I also wouldn't overreact to two spring training home runs. We knew he had raw plus power-- it's just a question of whether he can get to it in games without losing the compact swing and swing path which allows him to hit for good averages. Two nice home runs in spring training off fringy relievers doesn't do much to answer that question for me. It's still an open question whether he can combine the power and the average for a sustained period of time. To be clear, I don't think he *will* be a .300 hitter, but if he has some seasons like that (.300/.360/.480), I won't be surprised. I think your prediction of .280/.340/.440 or so is my 50%. Yes, he's an advanced college hitter, but he also has been remarkably consistent through AA, and shown continued improvement. He's still slightly age-advanced, and his batting profile (esp. aforementioned BB:K rates) bode well for him translating those numbers to MLB. As for HR totals, I refer back to Youk, the closest stylistic RHH I can think of in recent Sox developmental history. If he's slightly above league average (he's a good baserunner and average defensively), say 10-15 in MLB range, that's a very, very useful player while his salary is low (years 1-5). Those dollars saved mean access to significantly above-avg talent elsewhere.
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Post by redsox1534 on Mar 20, 2016 7:58:54 GMT -5
I gotta say it's so hard to see a guy so big not be a atleast a solid 20 hr guy. My only problem with travis is his swing looks like it tends to get a little long some times. Also he could use some more loft in his swing but I have always liked him still do and I'd like to see him on our team soon. He's a major league player no doubt about it for me.
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Post by jmei on Mar 20, 2016 9:35:11 GMT -5
As for power production, fringy relievers or not...his bombs were harder struck (by reports) than any other Sox hitter this spring. A guy 6' 190 lbs. who has average bat speed doesn't hit many that far. Indeed, news reports in the past few days suggest that the 'average bat speed' label may be faulty. I'm putting far more stock in the 9 home runs he hit in 559 plate appearances last year and just about all the scouting reports we've seen than two spring training home runs. I'd also disagree with the idea that he was Pedroia's hand-eye coordination-- that's the trait that allows Pedroia to make so much contact despite swinging so hard all the time, while Travis does the exact opposite-- he has a compact, controlled swing which limits his power and his bat speed in exchange for being able to make a lot of contact.
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Post by azblue on Mar 20, 2016 9:47:37 GMT -5
How many home runs did Jeff Bagwell hit in a full season at AA before he was traded? My recollection is that it was 3.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 20, 2016 12:05:16 GMT -5
As for power production, fringy relievers or not...his bombs were harder struck (by reports) than any other Sox hitter this spring. A guy 6' 190 lbs. who has average bat speed doesn't hit many that far. Indeed, news reports in the past few days suggest that the 'average bat speed' label may be faulty. I'm putting far more stock in the 9 home runs he hit in 559 plate appearances last year and just about all the scouting reports we've seen than two spring training home runs. I'd also disagree with the idea that he was Pedroia's hand-eye coordination-- that's the trait that allows Pedroia to make so much contact despite swinging so hard all the time, while Travis does the exact opposite-- he has a compact, controlled swing which limits his power and his bat speed in exchange for being able to make a lot of contact. You seem to be ignoring or heavily discounting spring training scouting reports though: How can you say that his bat speed is limited (interpreted as lacking) after reading that? These comments are the main reason why anyone is even talking about it, not two home runs. Stop assuming that our beliefs are from spring training results because they aren't. Those reports don't seem to be generic BSOHL type of spring training comments because they are so specific. BTW, Hanley Ramirez hit 6 HR in a full season at Portland.
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Post by jmei on Mar 20, 2016 13:51:19 GMT -5
You seem to be ignoring or heavily discounting spring training scouting reports though: How can you say that his bat speed is limited (interpreted as lacking) after reading that? These comments are the main reason why anyone is even talking about it, not two home runs. Stop assuming that our beliefs are from spring training results because they aren't. Those reports don't seem to be generic BSOHL type of spring training comments because they are so specific. BTW, Hanley Ramirez hit 6 HR in a full season at Portland. Having quick hands is not really the same thing as having plus bat speed. Quick hands means he has a short, compact swing that lets him make lots of contact-- but we knew that already. That isn't the same thing as bat speed, which is how fast his bat is traveling at contact (and thus roughly how hard his batted ball velo is). Here's Kiley McDaniel explaining the distinction: Some guys can combine quick hands with enough strength to generate plus bat speed-- think Mookie Betts-- but a lot of guys with quick hands can't get enough oomph in their swing to drive the ball consistently (think Brock Holt or Jose Iglesias) or have flat swing planes that holds down their power ceiling (think Jason Heyward). Travis has a little bit of both, which is why he's hit for less power than we'd expect. The swing finish stuff is more intriguing, but I'm still going to wait and see how it translates to regular season performance.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2016 13:57:51 GMT -5
How many home runs did Jeff Bagwell hit in a full season at AA before he was traded? My recollection is that it was 3. giant park, not a helpful parallel
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 20, 2016 17:51:24 GMT -5
As for power production, fringy relievers or not...his bombs were harder struck (by reports) than any other Sox hitter this spring. A guy 6' 190 lbs. who has average bat speed doesn't hit many that far. Indeed, news reports in the past few days suggest that the 'average bat speed' label may be faulty. I'm putting far more stock in the 9 home runs he hit in 559 plate appearances last year and just about all the scouting reports we've seen than two spring training home runs. I'd also disagree with the idea that he was Pedroia's hand-eye coordination-- that's the trait that allows Pedroia to make so much contact despite swinging so hard all the time, while Travis does the exact opposite-- he has a compact, controlled swing which limits his power and his bat speed in exchange for being able to make a lot of contact. Put your stock where you want. You're allowed. For me, a guy that hits not just "two spring training home runs" but big boy blasts has power AND bat speed. Organizational reports suggest that he has plus bat speed which would coincide with the referenced results. If he were impeded by a "compact, controlled swing which limits his power and his bat speed" as you state, his recent 430+ foot hrs. must surely qualify as the great conundrum. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination to barrel up as many balls as he consistently does... strike out at a 12% or lower rate and hit .307 b/t AA and AAA in 2015. I don't think one has to compare violence in swings to form an opinion on bat to ball ability. This guy has exceptional assets.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 20, 2016 18:51:07 GMT -5
Put your stock where you want. You're allowed. For me, a guy that hits not just "two spring training home runs" but big boy blasts has power AND bat speed. Organizational reports suggest that he has plus bat speed which would coincide with the referenced results. If he were impeded by a "compact, controlled swing which limits his power and his bat speed" as you state, his recent 430+ foot hrs. must surely qualify as the great conundrum. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination to barrel up as many balls as he consistently does... strike out at a 12% or lower rate and hit .307 b/t AA and AAA in 2015. I don't think one has to compare violence in swings to form an opinion on bat to ball ability. This guy has exceptional assets. Why would they be a conundrum? It could be as simple as Travis having been comfortable altering his approach in those two at-bats against subpar pitching, in a way he isn't always comfortable doing so. Which is why he rarely does it. I'm not saying the kid is trash but I think people are getting ahead of themselves in projecting him to suddenly have added a home run stroke to his existing game. Travis' success so far has been achieved with that short, level swing in the minors. You take that away and he's hitting for more power - who is to say he's still hitting for average? Its like saying Xander has hit for power and hit for average, now he just has to combine the two and become an MVP candidate. Its not that simple. Sacrificing batted ball distance is what helped Xander hit for average and taking big cuts and chasing is what helped Xander hit for power. Its possible but its not nearly as probable in my mind as others seem to think. I'm with jmei, the numbers look good but lets wait and see.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 21, 2016 13:04:10 GMT -5
There's nothing wrong with waiting and seeing on Travis ... I'm all about the waiting and the seeing. But it's also well within reasonable projection that Travis could add some HR power. Even though he's an "advanced college hitter," he's still young for his level. It's far from certain, but there's nothing crazy about it happening. And his performance this spring - as a 22 year-old in his first camp - is worthy of consideration.
My position could be summed up as, "he has more of a chance than I thought to hit for enough power to be a first-division starter." Doesn't mean he's gonna do it, but there's more upside than I was thinking, and the way he's hit this spring has been part of that.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 21, 2016 20:04:12 GMT -5
Speier said tonight on EEI that a re-rank would place Travis as the #5 prospect in the system and while his thinking is not there yet, with Travis' floor, other organizations could put his value in with the top 4 group.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 21, 2016 20:10:46 GMT -5
Put your stock where you want. You're allowed. For me, a guy that hits not just "two spring training home runs" but big boy blasts has power AND bat speed. Organizational reports suggest that he has plus bat speed which would coincide with the referenced results. If he were impeded by a "compact, controlled swing which limits his power and his bat speed" as you state, his recent 430+ foot hrs. must surely qualify as the great conundrum. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination to barrel up as many balls as he consistently does... strike out at a 12% or lower rate and hit .307 b/t AA and AAA in 2015. I don't think one has to compare violence in swings to form an opinion on bat to ball ability. This guy has exceptional assets. Why would they be a conundrum? It could be as simple as Travis having been comfortable altering his approach in those two at-bats against subpar pitching, in a way he isn't always comfortable doing so. Which is why he rarely does it. I'm not saying the kid is trash but I think people are getting ahead of themselves in projecting him to suddenly have added a home run stroke to his existing game. Travis' success so far has been achieved with that short, level swing in the minors. You take that away and he's hitting for more power - who is to say he's still hitting for average? Its like saying Xander has hit for power and hit for average, now he just has to combine the two and become an MVP candidate. Its not that simple. Sacrificing batted ball distance is what helped Xander hit for average and taking big cuts and chasing is what helped Xander hit for power. Its possible but its not nearly as probable in my mind as others seem to think. I'm with jmei, the numbers look good but lets wait and see. I am with you to a point....in that we'll have to wait and see --- as always. I am usually the last guy to wax positive so my enthusiasm here is unusual. Whether Travis batted against inferior pitching (or not) or was relaxed to the max, he displayed inordinate power on those two home runs. We have a whole slew of guys on the team that one could say faced the same inferior pitching or were similarly relaxed...including the ultra-relaxed Papi. But by reports and stats, no one has damaged the baseball this spring...measured by distance and average...more than Sam Travis. That display of power-potential, his high BA following two similar minor league years thru AAA, and high walk rate vis a vis strikeouts give lots to be excited about...beyond 'it could be lightning in a bottle'. No we should not get ahead of ourselves ..and can cite Bradley's spring 2 years ago as example...but to deny exceptional bat to ball ability and strike zone judgment in the face of significant contrary evidence...including SP's assessment..is to deliberately turn the blind eye.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 21, 2016 21:41:57 GMT -5
Speier said tonight on EEI that a re-rank would place Travis as the #5 prospect in the system and while his thinking is not there yet, with Travis' floor, other organizations could put his value in with the top 4 group. Given who those 4 are, I find that last part hard to believe. If it's true, I'm selling ASAP.
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Sam Travis
Mar 21, 2016 22:23:58 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Mar 21, 2016 22:23:58 GMT -5
Speier said tonight on EEI that a re-rank would place Travis as the #5 prospect in the system and while his thinking is not there yet, with Travis' floor, other organizations could put his value in with the top 4 group. Given who those 4 are, I find that last part hard to believe. If it's true, I'm selling ASAP. Yeah, I like Travis, but I'm not sure Id even put him 5 yet. And who's he gonna knock out of the top 4? Espinoza? Benintendi? Come on, that's just silly. If so, he'd better be a combo of Goldschmidt, Mattingly, and Garvey with the glove.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2016 1:17:06 GMT -5
Given who those 4 are, I find that last part hard to believe. If it's true, I'm selling ASAP. Yeah, I like Travis, but I'm not sure Id even put him 5 yet. And who's he gonna knock out of the top 4? Espinoza? Benintendi? Come on, that's just silly. If so, he'd better be a combo of Goldschmidt, Mattingly, and Garvey with the glove. I love our top 5 but they are all crazy young and are playing in low minors. Travis currently has a much higher floor and a lower ceiling. So it wouldn't be crazy if other teams valued him like they do our top 4. You make it sound like Travis would need to be a bubble HOF to equal there value. Man I hope your right, but chance are at least one if not more of them will never reach their potential.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 22, 2016 7:10:08 GMT -5
I moved posts about Lou Gorman, etc to the Off-Topic forum.
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Sam Travis
Mar 22, 2016 20:48:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2016 20:48:21 GMT -5
Yeah, I like Travis, but I'm not sure Id even put him 5 yet. And who's he gonna knock out of the top 4? Espinoza? Benintendi? Come on, that's just silly. If so, he'd better be a combo of Goldschmidt, Mattingly, and Garvey with the glove. I love our top 5 but they are all crazy young and are playing in low minors. Travis currently has a much higher floor and a lower ceiling. So it wouldn't be crazy if other teams valued him like they do our top 4. You make it sound like Travis would need to be a bubble HOF to equal there value. Man I hope your right, but chance are at least one if not more of them will never reach their potential. I should have clarified (the three player comp) as "defensively," because his likely offensive output might make him roughly league average. Otherwise, yeah, I'd be...bullish, to say the least...on the top 4. In retrospect, I could see how that might elicit some chuckles.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Mar 25, 2016 4:58:46 GMT -5
If anything, Sam proved that this spring training he could make a pretty good pinch hitter in the big leagues. With all the comments Farrell made about Sam coming off the bench and being able to square up a 95 mph fastball.
Of course hopefully he becomes something a lot more than that but this is one thing he did prove in spring training. At least spring training is good for something maybe in terms of performance after all.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 25, 2016 19:13:29 GMT -5
I think Travis could be top 5 already. Knocking down Kopech and Johnson. BTW, is there any chance he could play the OF in Fenway's left field?
Edit: I mean in a pinch be a back up OF if needed.
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