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Post by telson13 on Feb 1, 2016 13:18:30 GMT -5
I think the consensus is 1-9 there is not a huge drop-off in talent, which is a luxury. I just fear that we don't have the depth as we have in our position players coming up. I may have a false fear here, I just don't see the Ball's, Stankey's, Buttrey's, to push the envelope. That means a lot falls on Espinoza/Kopech to replace Buchholz/Price (assuming opt out). Teams without the budget the Red Sox have would likely have two of Wright, Owens and Johnson in the rotation right now. We're not in trouble anytime soon. There is a lot of youth and room for improvement. One or more of these depth guys will have the chance to prove themselves this year. Having 9 guys who could be a starter in the majors seems like a luxury to me. We'll take advantage of it while we can, but I don't think it's something we need all the time every year. Two huge benefits that I see: 1) Any given pitcher can pitch above, at, or below his norm. Depending on where he is in his career, the odds of each are different. This can be affected by opportunity, health, etc. But with **four** extra starters, there's a much higher cumulative likelihood that one (or more) will break out and have a good year. 2) A breakout candidate among the younger guys (and based on experience, Wright and Elias are in this group) means value at the trade deadline, when starting pitching is invariably a need for many teams. The Sox have what looks like sufficient depth at most positions to weather any non-catastrophic injuries. So having starting pitching available to trade puts them in a great position to clean up on prospects at the deadline.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Feb 2, 2016 9:20:47 GMT -5
If they trade from depth (SP) at the deadline, unless there are multiple ML injuries, I would hope they would try to reload the bottom end of the minor league system as the Hi-A team will probably move up together & be ML ready in a year or 2 at the latest. Some high ceiling guys in low a would be nice.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Mar 13, 2016 11:07:52 GMT -5
He's a 2nd rounder with 130 at bats in which he hasn't looked bad. I wouldn't quite go there yet. He is still absolutely a prospect. How about we give him more than a month and a half before we go saying this... As for Kukuk, he was my favorite pick in the draft year. Gotta love projectable lefties with a nice fastball! Hopefully his newly discovered control is a permanent thing, that would sure be something. He can feel free to prove me wrong. I don't see much potential in him at all though. I think he is doing just that. He can hit. I trust they will not make the mistake they made with Bradley and bring him to the majors before he has a chance for at least a couple of hundred AB's in AAA. But I also hope they will not make him spend a couple of months at AA like the projected rosters page of this board suggests. I think he has a chance to help the Big League team the second half of this year if Hanley gets hurt or is a bust at 1B, but only if he starts the year at AAA and gets a couple hundred AB's there and does well.
I certainly wouldn't let Brendon Bosch keep the Red Sox from starting Travis in AAA.
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nomar
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Sam Travis
Mar 13, 2016 11:34:11 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Mar 13, 2016 11:34:11 GMT -5
No way they let Boesch impede Travis' development.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Mar 17, 2016 21:21:27 GMT -5
And yet the projected roster section of this site has gone back to listing him as starting the year at Portland. For awhile that page had him projected to Pawtucket, but it now has him listed at Portland.I would think the Red Sox would want to start having him get AB's at AAA as soon as possible so that if Hanley doesn't work out at !B Travis might be ready during the second half of the year to platoon at !B with Shaw. And I can't see presence of Allen Craig, Brendan Bosch or Chris Dominguez at Pawtucket keeping them from starting Travis at AAA. Could someone please explain why they think he will start at Portland? I would really like to know the reasoning. Noticed the projected roster section of this site now projects him to start at Pawtucket. Hope the Red Sox agree. As well as he has done last year and so far this spring, I feel like sending him back to AA would be a waste of his time. He needs 2 to 3 hundred at bats in AAA and he has to have success in those at bats before he might be able to help at the major league level. Hope he starts getting those at bats in April.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Mar 18, 2016 5:28:19 GMT -5
I had my doubts about Sam, but this dude keeps hitting and keeps raking no matter where he goes. He's usually one of the youngest in his league too. That includes this year at AAA. He's only 23.
It looks like the power is coming this spring training too, although this may just be a flash he has 3 homeruns in a limited number of at bats in the spring.
The most important tool in a everyday is the hit tool and Sam certainly has it. This guy is really interesting.
Ohh and forget my suggestion about Bautista. He wants 150 million in a 5 year deal. I'll pass if that's what he wants. The most I wanted to see the Sox to go was 100 million for 4 years, at most.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 18, 2016 11:00:11 GMT -5
Went back to the write-up on Sam Travis here yesterday. Not terribly inspiring. But I do not understand how his "hit tool" is not above average! He has not only looked real good this spring, but has been a consistent .300 plus hitter every season. Yes his homer total is not where we would like it, but that is not his hit tool. I believe many of us are under estimating this kid.
Certainly he may not be a 25 to 30 home run guy. I get that, but he squares the ball up consistently and has been a doubles machine. Other than his speed on the base-paths, he is pretty solid. We would be very happy, eventually, with a guy who handles 1st pretty well and can put up a line like .290/.340/.430. I like the way he plays the game, and I would not be surprised if he becomes a solid piece of our club in 2017 or 2018.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 18, 2016 12:32:26 GMT -5
I wanted to echo the sentiment that Sam Travis might be better than what I interpret his scouting profile to read. If I am understanding it correctly, he's a likely 2nd division type 1b.
I think he's better than that, particularly in this day where power has declined so not being a 30 HR guy at 1b doesn't really count as much against him.
I do think Sam Travis could be a guy who can hit near .300 in the majors with a decent OBP. I think he can hit eventually hit 15 homers per year, and playing at Fenway, he could easily be a 40 doubles guy consistently.
While it's not necessarily an exciting profile you're talking about a guy making very little baseball-wise who could be quite productive.
I'm not convinced that giving up a draft pick to get the backside of Edwin Encarnacion's career after this season is necessarily a better option than giving Sam Travis a full chance to become the 1b.
Of course Travis Shaw might have something to say about that, but I'm kind of hopeful that he's the answer at 3b (if Sandoval doesn't really bounce back - I think he'll be better than last year, but quite mediocre) for awhile, at least until they determine if Moncada's future is in the OF (if JBJ hits enough to become a major asset in CF and is flanked by Betts and Benintendi) or at 3b.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Mar 18, 2016 12:49:00 GMT -5
This is why I want them to put dates on when the scouting reports are written. Most are pretty outdated.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 18, 2016 14:00:36 GMT -5
I wanted to echo the sentiment that Sam Travis might be better than what I interpret his scouting profile to read. If I am understanding it correctly, he's a likely 2nd division type 1b. I think he's better than that, particularly in this day where power has declined so not being a 30 HR guy at 1b doesn't really count as much against him. I do think Sam Travis could be a guy who can hit near .300 in the majors with a decent OBP. I think he can hit eventually hit 15 homers per year, and playing at Fenway, he could easily be a 40 doubles guy consistently. While it's not necessarily an exciting profile you're talking about a guy making very little baseball-wise who could be quite productive. I'm not convinced that giving up a draft pick to get the backside of Edwin Encarnacion's career after this season is necessarily a better option than giving Sam Travis a full chance to become the 1b. Of course Travis Shaw might have something to say about that, but I'm kind of hopeful that he's the answer at 3b (if Sandoval doesn't really bounce back - I think he'll be better than last year, but quite mediocre) for awhile, at least until they determine if Moncada's future is in the OF (if JBJ hits enough to become a major asset in CF and is flanked by Betts and Benintendi) or at 3b. In today's Globe, Farrell raves about Travis from a purely scouting perspective. "Lightning-quick hands and a compact swing." I've pulled a 180 on him myself, from watching the videos of him swinging and from comments like that. I still like Shaw as a bench guy who could start for maybe half the clubs in MLB, just like Holt could at 2B. That's the kind of depth that championship clubs have. But it's absolutely true that he could be a 1 or 2-year stopgap at 3B until Moncasa or Devers arrives, if Sandoval doesn't bounce back sufficiently.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2016 15:08:37 GMT -5
Two more hits for Travis today, so he's up to .600 (15 for 25).
And speaking of a scouting report, check this out from today's 108 Stitches:
and this report on his makeup:
He has my vote for moving up to 5th in the April rankings.
Between Travis and Shaw, they have two pretty awesome alternatives to Hanley and Pablo.
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Post by thursty on Mar 18, 2016 16:40:11 GMT -5
"The Rays shifted three infielders on the left side of second vs Sam Travis. Travis singled to the right of 2B. He's 1-for-2; average falling"
Nice. And somewhere Xander was smiling.
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Sam Travis
Mar 18, 2016 16:41:15 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Mar 18, 2016 16:41:15 GMT -5
Well, Schwarber said Travis had similar BP power as he did, so I'm not all that surprised. Travis is already seeming to be one of those guys scouts call a "professional hitter." Youk at his peak was good for 25-30 HR, so while it's unfair to expect Travis to get there, the raw power and approach certainly make it an entertainable fantasy. He's absolutely *crushed* his HR this spring, and they've been consistent with his up-the-middle approach. He seems ticketed for Pawtucket, and if he's killing the ball all year, maybe he gets a Sept taste and a shot to move Hanley to DH full-time. The current scouting and his MiLB performance so far certainly jibe with a hitter who stands a very good chance of outperforming his pre-draft and early career predictions. Goldschmidt and Rizzo certainly did (though Rizzo was pretty highly regarded). First basemen without clearly evident power just don't get drafted very high. Travis looks to fit the late-blooming power profile...coupled with a solid hit tool, he's a pseudo-sleeper with big breakout potential.
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 18, 2016 16:42:16 GMT -5
Sam Travis will, IMO, prove to have been underrated. In Portland last year he generated the same 'in control' at bat air that Rizzo did a few years before. I would not be surprised with a .300+ average, 15-20 hrs. and a 360+ OBP in AAA. Unless something unexpected happens, he will be called to Boston this year. He has a track record and is not limited to pull power.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2016 17:04:45 GMT -5
Well, Schwarber said Travis had similar BP power as he did, so I'm not all that surprised. Travis is already seeming to be one of those guys scouts call a "professional hitter." Youk at his peak was good for 25-30 HR, so while it's unfair to expect Travis to get there, the raw power and approach certainly make it an entertainable fantasy. He's absolutely *crushed* his HR this spring, and they've been consistent with his up-the-middle approach. He seems ticketed for Pawtucket, and if he's killing the ball all year, maybe he gets a Sept taste and a shot to move Hanley to DH full-time. The current scouting and his MiLB performance so far certainly jibe with a hitter who stands a very good chance of outperforming his pre-draft and early career predictions. Goldschmidt and Rizzo certainly did (though Rizzo was pretty highly regarded). First basemen without clearly evident power just don't get drafted very high. Travis looks to fit the late-blooming power profile...coupled with a solid hit tool, he's a pseudo-sleeper with big breakout potential. Youk is a great comparison. We could only hope...
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 18, 2016 17:10:02 GMT -5
I've been interested in Travis for a while, and that led me to look through a few of the prospect ratings once they were available. This is from FanGraphs: Always good to get other opinions, of course. I'd seen just a handful of his at-bats up to that time, and I watched a few more after that. There's no doubt the swing is "contained" for lack of a better word. I picked that one because it may do him justice. There could be a bit more going on however, something he's intimated himself.
He's let it be known that he's focused - apparently very focused - on going with the pitch and hitting the gaps. If you're just watching a series, scouting the guy for a report, you could interpret that as a very rigid approach. If you hear the guy talk about his plan - and you're willing to believe him - you'd think bat control and discipline. If you listen, again, to what he has to say about HRs, and what his buddy Schwarber chimed in with, you understand he also knows he can generate power. Speier's anecdote would seem to be more evidence.
When you watch the spring training blasts, that sort of confirms it. If he is that good at picking his spots, then we'll all want to pay attention. As telson pointed out, this looks like a very professional approach.
It's just spring training and he'll have to prove it out in AAA. But he does seem to have a clue or two.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 18, 2016 17:16:29 GMT -5
Two more hits for Travis today, so he's up to .600 (15 for 25). And speaking of a scouting report, check this out from today's 108 Stitches: and this report on his makeup: He has my vote for moving up to 5th in the April rankings.
Between Travis and Shaw, they have two pretty awesome alternatives to Hanley and Pablo. And mine. I think he has it even if Kopech had only cursed at his roommate. (We could do a council of Elrond thing here ... he has my vote! ... and my sword ... and my axe ... and my bow ...) More interestingly perhaps, it's now easier to pencil him into the 2017 lineup then it is to pencil in Benintendi or Moncada. Travis's ETA as a regular is looking like Opening Day, while the others would at the very least be guys you'd give some extra AAA time to, in part to hold back their service clock, but also because it would probably help their development a bit. (Moncada might actually project to arrive no sooner than mid-season.) And finally, to make it clear, this change in assessment is scouting-based. If he had the same numbers without any evident additional loft in his swing or reports about his bat speed and makeup, they'd just be great numbers and worth squat. (Who remembers the Sox, after 1975, trading one of their most promising young players for a key complementary part, and that guy having a mind-boggling ST, and then putting up an 0.2 bWAR season in his role?)
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 18, 2016 17:40:28 GMT -5
I've been interested in Travis for a while, and that led me to look through a few of the prospect ratings once they were available. This is from FanGraphs: Always good to get other opinions, of course. I'd seen just a handful of his at-bats up to that time, and I watched a few more after that. There's no doubt the swing is "contained" for lack of a better word. I picked that one because it may do him justice. There could be a bit more going on however, something he's intimated himself. He's let it be known that he's focused - apparently very focused - on going with the pitch and hitting the gaps. If you're just watching a series, scouting the guy for a report, you could interpret that as a very rigid approach. If you hear the guy talk about his plan - and you're willing to believe him - you'd think bat control and discipline. If you listen, again, to what he has to say about HRs, and what his buddy Schwarber chimed in with, you understand he also knows he can generate power. Speier's anecdote would seem to be more evidence. When you watch the spring training blasts, that sort of confirms it. If he is that good at picking his spots, then we'll all want to pay attention. As telson pointed out, this looks like a very professional approach. It's just spring training and he'll have to prove it out in AAA. But he does seem to have a clue or two.Yes he does. We are all late to the party. At AAA I fully expect a .300+ BA, a .360 OBP and a near .500 Slug %. He has the talent and the drive to max his potential.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 18, 2016 18:12:40 GMT -5
I'm suddenly the low man on Travis, and I haven't actually changed my opinion on him. Calm down people, it's spring training.
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 18, 2016 18:22:19 GMT -5
I'm suddenly the low man on Travis, and I haven't actually changed my opinion on him. Calm down people, it's spring training. Fenway I would ordinarily agree with you here and for good reason but....this is one time I am on board the train. This guy is for real. He is on everything....hard. He has hand-eye, strike zone judgement and he is not a free swinger. He gets a high % of walks vs strikeouts and can damage a baseball. Stay F.....g Tuned!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 18, 2016 19:09:59 GMT -5
I'm suddenly the low man on Travis, and I haven't actually changed my opinion on him. Calm down people, it's spring training. Like I said, he'll have to prove it out in AAA but he does seem to have a clue. The hallmark of his minor league numbers is ridiculous consistency. That and that low K rate have kept me interested. It's true, there are lots of players who can do it in AA and that's as far as it goes. Watching him hit leads me to think he'll reach escape velocity and make it to the majors with those skills intact. And while it's hard to know what type of hitter he'll end up being, he does have a plan.
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Sam Travis
Mar 18, 2016 21:53:08 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Mar 18, 2016 21:53:08 GMT -5
I've been interested in Travis for a while, and that led me to look through a few of the prospect ratings once they were available. This is from FanGraphs: Always good to get other opinions, of course. I'd seen just a handful of his at-bats up to that time, and I watched a few more after that. There's no doubt the swing is "contained" for lack of a better word. I picked that one because it may do him justice. There could be a bit more going on however, something he's intimated himself. He's let it be known that he's focused - apparently very focused - on going with the pitch and hitting the gaps. If you're just watching a series, scouting the guy for a report, you could interpret that as a very rigid approach. If you hear the guy talk about his plan - and you're willing to believe him - you'd think bat control and discipline. If you listen, again, to what he has to say about HRs, and what his buddy Schwarber chimed in with, you understand he also knows he can generate power. Speier's anecdote would seem to be more evidence. When you watch the spring training blasts, that sort of confirms it. If he is that good at picking his spots, then we'll all want to pay attention. As telson pointed out, this looks like a very professional approach. It's just spring training and he'll have to prove it out in AAA. But he does seem to have a clue or two. I think you hit on the big thing going for him: he's such a student of hitting that he's evolving his approach. Even the less-than glowing reports fit with this thinking. He might never be a 25-30 guy, but I do like his chances of becoming, say, a .300/.360/.480 or so hitter. Not that I think he *will*, but I wouldn't be surprised. He seems to have shortened up a little bit, and I would balk at the idea that he can't muscle a few out. The combined distance on his two HR this spring has got to be close to 850 feet. The last one he hit was just destroyed. Just like Youk (without the crazy isoD), Travis may be an all-fields approach guy who learns to pick his spots and develop a little loft in his swing along the way, without sacrificing too much contact. I loved his oppo single against the shift. I've liked him as a pick since they got him (I'm partial to plus hit tool-line drive guys the way the Sox are CFs), but I genuinely think I may have underestimated him. There's plenty of power there, it's just an issue of turning raw into game, and this spring has given me some confidence in that regard. Plus, he's got a good righty approach for Fenway, in that I think he can use the wall without getting too pull-happy. And we know he can clear the triangle. If he puts up 60 XBH and only 18 are HR, I'm ok with that, because I think he's got some .300 seasons in him.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 18, 2016 22:17:15 GMT -5
Put it this way: People love power. Hitters who crush the ball with loft have scouts and fans alike drooling, because HR are overrated. They're exciting, they have cache, they're instantly gratifying. But they're not the only way to win ballgames. And the problem with a lot of raw power guys is that they lack pitch recognition. They don't have the neural processing ability to make enough contact, because as they move up, pitchers' stuff gets exponentially better, and the margin for error plummets. Javy Baez is the latest guy I think of when I think of this kind of player. A setup for a huge bust (although he's still way too young to really say, but his stock's plummeted).
Pure hitters aren't nearly as flashy. They hit a lot of line drives, don't strike out as much, but don't put up the early XB numbers. But the difference is that their tools translate better. They're not limited by much more fixed traits like pitch recognition and hand-eye coordination. And if they have bat speed (or they can lift weights and gain strength), they have the requisite innate talents to further evolve their approach, in a way that a lot of big power guys can't. Pure hitters are great because they're not one-trick ponies. They may not come out of the gate hitting bombs, but they're the guys who often hit more than you'd expect: Mookie, Pedroia, McCutcheon. And if they don't hit 30, they can often still give you 15-20 with nearly the same SLG a 30-HR guy has, but with a much better OBP. Plus, they often seem to draft lower than equivalent power guys. Of course, this is a gross generalization, but it's just my observation. And another reason I loved the Benintendi pick. The more I see of him, the more he reminds me of Don Mattingly. Same height and build, same crazy bat speed, same tendency to crush inside stuff for extra bases. And Travis, while not in that class, still strikes me as a hitter first, with the best yet to come.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Mar 18, 2016 23:39:02 GMT -5
It is amazing how quickly opinion has changed on this player on this board. I too think he is probably the 5th best prospect remaining in the Red Sox system at this time. But for me that isn't because of any updated scouting report as was suggested above. For me its the stats that he has put up - he has hit everywhere he has played. Despite the fact that I have been high on him for quite awhile, I will not be completely convinced until he hits at AAA. I am anxious to see him get that chance in a couple of weeks.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 19, 2016 0:24:42 GMT -5
Not at all. There have been opinions both ways as he moved through the system. There still are. I think it's more a discussion about his ceiling than his floor. He's a pretty safe bet to play in the majors.
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