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nomar
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Sam Travis
Jan 26, 2016 18:08:14 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Jan 26, 2016 18:08:14 GMT -5
Friendly reminder that Fenway actually cuts into RHB HR totals. Bautista would be a good hitter anywhere, but I wouldn't expect any 50 HR hitters on this team for the foreseeable future.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 26, 2016 18:54:03 GMT -5
Friendly reminder that Fenway actually cuts into RHB HR totals. Bautista would be a good hitter anywhere, but I wouldn't expect any 50 HR hitters on this team for the foreseeable future. And Toronto is ridiculous. Although I bet Encarnacion would be even better in Fenway.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2016 23:47:13 GMT -5
"You still haven't addressed where Bautista plays. He's not a 1b. If the Sox get somebody from Toronto it will be the lefthanded Encarnacion, but that would force Hanley back to 1b which could be detrimental or perhaps not even an option come 2017." Well I doubt that the Sox get Encanarcion because of Hanley and Edwin is a right handed batter. As for punting the pick, Dave Dombrowski was willing to do that to sign Zach Greinke if the Sox didn't land Price. He'll definitely do it to land a Bautista, especially if it's a number 20+ pick. As for which position he'll play. He'll probably be the RF for a year or half a year until one of Benintendi or Moncada is ready in the outfield, then he probably transitions to 1B. He has been transitioning their in the past year, I think the blue jays are trying to save his legs. Yeah, I'm embarrassed to say I have no idea why I had it in my head that Encarnacion was a left handed hitter. He's a righty, of course. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Sox did sign Encarnacion, although I'm not convinced he'd be a much better 1b than Hanley Ramirez is. If Sam Travis doesn't set the world on fire in AAA and doesn't do much to give an indication that he's going to be better than a so-so hitter at the major league level, then yeah, I can see Dombrowski making a move like Encarnacion (whom I think Farrell likes) and giving up the draft pick. Given the uncertainty of his defense (like Bautista at 1b), I'd prefer the Sox keep the draft pick (and I wouldn't give the pick up for Teixeira's downside of his career either) as I think they'll need to try to get back some of the talent they lost in Margot, Guerra, and Allen, and giving up a 1st round pick even if it is lower in the round isn't necessarily the best way to go about it. I think Sam Travis will have a lot to say about whether the Sox take this kind of gamble for 2017 and beyond.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 27, 2016 4:19:06 GMT -5
I can't see the Sox picking up a dh only in Encarnacion. Unless Hanley proves to be decent first baseman, which may be unlikely. Travis Shaw is going to see a lot of games especially from the 7th inning on because of Hanley this year at first.
Kind of like Doug Mietkevich (ok I know I spelt his name entirely wrong) and Kevin Millar in 2004.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 27, 2016 7:15:43 GMT -5
I can't see the Sox picking up a dh only in Encarnacion. Unless Hanley proves to be decent first baseman, which may be unlikely. Travis Shaw is going to see a lot of games especially from the 7th inning on because of Hanley this year at first. Kind of like Doug Mietkevich (ok I know I spelt his name entirely wrong) and Kevin Millar in 2004. That's kind of my point. Hanley will be the DH in 2017. They need a 1b. They also might need a strong #2/#3 type starter and we know they can be expensive. The question is how much of an upgrade would they need on Sam Travis to make it worthwhile? I'm not so sure spending big bucks on a 1b to block Travis makes sense, when it could be applied elsewhere if need be. And yeah I'm sure we'll see Travis Shaw at 1b plenty in the late innings spelling Ramirez. Shaw is no Doug Mientkiewicz defensively, but he might look like him compared to Hanley. Hope that's not the case.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 27, 2016 7:36:05 GMT -5
If there are 15 new teams needing a DH next year, Bautista and Encarnacion are going to make a lot more money than the Red Sox may be willing to pay for either. I see both of them as DHs for their next contracts and the Red Sox have Hanley.
Another possibility is that rosters expand by 1 or 2 and they go with a Travis Shaw/Sam Travis platoon at 1B, even though it seems that Shaw has a reverse split so far. Sam seems to be a lefty killer. I think I'd go with either of them before I'd sign Teixeira who has averaged 93 games over the last 4 years.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 27, 2016 8:39:50 GMT -5
If there are 15 new teams needing a DH next year, Bautista and Encarnacion are going to make a lot more money than the Red Sox may be willing to pay for either. I see both of them as DHs for their next contracts and the Red Sox have Hanley. Another possibility is that rosters expand by 1 or 2 and they go with a Travis Shaw/Sam Travis platoon at 1B, even though it seems that Shaw has a reverse split so far. Sam seems to be a lefty killer. I think I'd go with either of them before I'd sign Teixeira who has averaged 93 games over the last 4 years. I'd say there's less than a 5% chance that the DH makes its way to the NL by April 2017.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 27, 2016 11:35:27 GMT -5
If there are 15 new teams needing a DH next year, Bautista and Encarnacion are going to make a lot more money than the Red Sox may be willing to pay for either. I see both of them as DHs for their next contracts and the Red Sox have Hanley. Another possibility is that rosters expand by 1 or 2 and they go with a Travis Shaw/Sam Travis platoon at 1B, even though it seems that Shaw has a reverse split so far. Sam seems to be a lefty killer. I think I'd go with either of them before I'd sign Teixeira who has averaged 93 games over the last 4 years. I'd say there's less than a 5% chance that the DH makes its way to the NL by April 2017. So if we are back to 15 teams, probably more like 6 or 7 needing Bautista/EE services. Everything will depend on Sam's Pawtucket #'s. He may be another Lars Anderson/Cecchini as everyone, including me, had them ticketed for Boston through their AA production. I would imagine if he craps the bed in AAA, Bautista/EE may be in play unless Devers is an option. I don't think he'd be ready in a year though.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 27, 2016 18:04:35 GMT -5
I can't see the Sox picking up a dh only in Encarnacion. Unless Hanley proves to be decent first baseman, which may be unlikely. Travis Shaw is going to see a lot of games especially from the 7th inning on because of Hanley this year at first. Kind of like Doug Mietkevich (ok I know I spelt his name entirely wrong) and Kevin Millar in 2004. Actually you spelled "spelled" wrong. Spelt is some kind of grain. Anyway, as to Encarnacion, it's too early to consider him for Dh, as much as I like him. I agree Hanley's performance at 1B is holding up future roster decisions. And, yes, Shaw should see a lot of action in late innings and starting occasionally starting against tough LH pitchers.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 28, 2016 0:01:19 GMT -5
I can't see the Sox picking up a dh only in Encarnacion. Unless Hanley proves to be decent first baseman, which may be unlikely. Travis Shaw is going to see a lot of games especially from the 7th inning on because of Hanley this year at first. Kind of like Doug Mietkevich (ok I know I spelt his name entirely wrong) and Kevin Millar in 2004. Actually you spelled "spelled" wrong. Spelt is some kind of grain. Anyway, as to Encarnacion, it's too early to consider him for Dh, as much as I like him. I agree Hanley's performance at 1B is holding up future roster decisions. And, yes, Shaw should see a lot of action in late innings and starting occasionally starting against tough LH pitchers. Yeah I'm no English major. I realize that. There's no way I would want Shaw facing tough lefties even if he's a reverse split guy.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 28, 2016 0:07:30 GMT -5
I can't see the Sox picking up a dh only in Encarnacion. Unless Hanley proves to be decent first baseman, which may be unlikely. Travis Shaw is going to see a lot of games especially from the 7th inning on because of Hanley this year at first. Kind of like Doug Mietkevich (ok I know I spelt his name entirely wrong) and Kevin Millar in 2004. That's kind of my point. Hanley will be the DH in 2017. They need a 1b. They also might need a strong #2/#3 type starter and we know they can be expensive. The question is how much of an upgrade would they need on Sam Travis to make it worthwhile? I'm not so sure spending big bucks on a 1b to block Travis makes sense, when it could be applied elsewhere if need be. And yeah I'm sure we'll see Travis Shaw at 1b plenty in the late innings spelling Ramirez. Shaw is no Doug Mientkiewicz defensively, but he might look like him compared to Hanley. Hope that's not the case. There's not much in the starting pitching department in free agency next year. If anything, the Sox might need to trade for a starter on a expiring deal (like a Tyson Ross) and sign a first baseman. Bautista could be good there in his next contract.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 28, 2016 1:52:47 GMT -5
The Sox have: Price Buchholz Rodriguez Porcello Kelly Owens Johnson Elias +/- Wright if he makes the team (I think they'll do their best to keep him on the roster as the 12th man on the pitching staff) Espinoza likely to be up in two years (or less) Kopech likely three years away, possibly 2 1/2.
Signing a FA makes little sense, unless they can find a good pitcher willing to do a pillow contract. I foresee little chance of this unless Strasburg has injury issues again this year or for some other reason the big money doesn't materialize next winter.
I'm not sold on signing Bautista because of the monetary cost, draft pick loss, and performance risk, but I'm not totally against it either. It all depends on the deal.
I think there's little use in predicting their SP situation because of the incredible volatility of their 2-5 pitchers. Buchholz is always a risk to fall apart, but he's also a reasonable bet to be intermittently outstanding and worth the cheap option (especially since he'd, at the least, have trade value). Rodriguez is a 1a/2 when he doesn't tip his pitches, but he's still very young. Kelly is Buchholz without the guile and the same upside, but he makes for a nice #5. Porcello, if we get the second-half version, is an excellent 3 and really (over a full season) maybe a 2. Or he's the same pitcher as last year. Owens and Johnson need further review, although I really think Owens is going to settle in as a 3-borderline-2. Elias has been a solid 4 when given the chance. They have questions, but a lot of upside and the depth to weather some bumps.
After seeing what Shelby Miller (2/3 quality in his career) cost, I'd really hate to see the Sox trade for a guy of that caliber, even if it's a stretch-drive acquisition who's gone after the season. That means no QO, loss of the one-year discount in prospect cost (usual trade-deadline bidding wars), and giving up significant prospect quality. Plus, if they sign Bautista, they loss their first-rounder. Tbh, I'd much prefer to see them deal some SP depth at the deadline, add a high-upside prospect or two, and give Owens or Johnson a spot. But it all depends on performances. I'm very, very, VERY wary of the "win now" mentality, which is usually an all-in approach that invariably cripples the team's future. They have some outstanding assets right now, and I see little benefit in mortgaging them for a crapshoot try at a ring. I really hope they'll exhaust internal options first before tying another $20M AAV albatross contract around their necks or dumping a bunch of talent for a return they could've produced themselves with a modicum of patience.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 28, 2016 2:09:42 GMT -5
I'm not certain why, with Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Elias, Wright, Buchholz, Owens, and Johnson, the Sox need to be shopping for a starter next year. I suppose there could be massive failures and a bundle of injuries, but why assume that? Sure it's a possibility, but I don't think there's a very high likelihood. Personally, I'd like to see Johnson get a shot as soon as possible, and Owens build on his experience at the end of last season. Given the guys in front of them, that alone is going to be difficult. But there still seems to be a desire to keep stuffing even more starters onto the roster. I'm at a loss here.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 28, 2016 7:17:05 GMT -5
It seems strange to be debating decisions for 2017. You can have things in mind, but we'll know a lot more after 2016. We're not signing Encarnacion or Bautista now, nor do any decisions need to be made until next fall.
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Post by jmei on Jan 28, 2016 7:25:23 GMT -5
As this is the Sam Travis thread, let's try to keep on topic. Thanks.
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Sam Travis
Jan 28, 2016 23:09:53 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 28, 2016 23:09:53 GMT -5
I'll say this about Sam, the fact that he's still so young and has yet to fill out with strength, that's the number one optimism I have for him. The same can be said for Owens, if not even more so for Owens. If Owens can add muscle to his pencil like frame and add a few mph to his fastball and Travis can just add a little more strength for in game power, then both these guys look like solid bets in the majors.
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Sam Travis
Jan 28, 2016 23:12:40 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 28, 2016 23:12:40 GMT -5
It seems strange to be debating decisions for 2017. You can have things in mind, but we'll know a lot more after 2016. We're not signing Encarnacion or Bautista now, nor do any decisions need to be made until next fall. It's all tied into losing Ortiz. Outside of Williams there hasn't been a player this organization has seen that has been a lock for 30+ homeruns a year practically every year he's been in Boston.
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Sam Travis
Jan 28, 2016 23:23:23 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 28, 2016 23:23:23 GMT -5
I'm not certain why, with Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Elias, Wright, Buchholz, Owens, and Johnson, the Sox need to be shopping for a starter next year. I suppose there could be massive failures and a bundle of injuries, but why assume that? Sure it's a possibility, but I don't think there's a very high likelihood. Personally, I'd like to see Johnson get a shot as soon as possible, and Owens build on his experience at the end of last season. Given the guys in front of them, that alone is going to be difficult. But there still seems to be a desire to keep stuffing even more starters onto the roster. I'm at a loss here. I'll try not to get too off topic about Sam but I'll comment on your post. I think the search for a number 2 starter all ties into the development of Eduardo Rodriguez this year. If he takes a step back, then the Sox might be looking to upgrade. If he stays around the same pitcher he was last year (or better), then the Sox should be fine. Ohh and as for Johnson, I'm looking for him to take Kelly's rotation spot by mid May. He's just plain better than Kelly. Kelly can barely escape the 5th inning most games and is still learning to pitch at age 27. Johnson already knows how to pitch and command better than Kelly.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 29, 2016 1:11:35 GMT -5
I'm not certain why, with Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Elias, Wright, Buchholz, Owens, and Johnson, the Sox need to be shopping for a starter next year. I suppose there could be massive failures and a bundle of injuries, but why assume that? Sure it's a possibility, but I don't think there's a very high likelihood. Personally, I'd like to see Johnson get a shot as soon as possible, and Owens build on his experience at the end of last season. Given the guys in front of them, that alone is going to be difficult. But there still seems to be a desire to keep stuffing even more starters onto the roster. I'm at a loss here. I'll try not to get too off topic about Sam but I'll comment on your post. I think the search for a number 2 starter all ties into the development of Eduardo Rodriguez this year. If he takes a step back, then the Sox might be looking to upgrade. If he stays around the same pitcher he was last year (or better), then the Sox should be fine. Ohh and as for Johnson, I'm looking for him to take Kelly's rotation spot by mid May. He's just plain better than Kelly. Kelly can barely escape the 5th inning most games and is still learning to pitch at age 27. Johnson already knows how to pitch and command better than Kelly. All the more reason it's unlikely that they go after a starter. As much as they can afford a big payroll, the Sox do not have an unlimited budget. Yes, they will free up salary when/if Koji and Buchholz leave and Papi retires. BUT, they will need to replace the first two with some semblance of equivalency. That's probably going to cost substantial $, or mean picking up Buchholz's option and replacing Koji (or re-signing him on a 1-year deal if he keeps pitching well). So they're really only "saving" on Ortiz. And, Papi has a sweetheart contract, at $16M. That's probably just enough to cover arb raises and extension-related increases. So that's where Travis comes in. He's a young, potentially right-around-average 1b. Maybe he breaks out and hits and becomes a valuable trade piece, or an even more valuable keeper. But I have a hard time seeing the team just de novo coming up with a boatload of money to throw at a FA to take the spot of a guy who costs nothing and is likely to be at least serviceable. Losing Papi will be a huge hit, no doubt...but the answer isn't likely to be buying a replacement. The wise, and cost-effective choice, is having one (or several) of Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Swihart, Benintendi, Moncada, and maybe Shaw step up and collectively replace that lost production. I think there's a better-than-50/50 that they will. Regardless, the 2016 season is the only thing that can answer that question.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 29, 2016 2:06:12 GMT -5
It seems strange to be debating decisions for 2017. You can have things in mind, but we'll know a lot more after 2016. We're not signing Encarnacion or Bautista now, nor do any decisions need to be made until next fall. I think the reason is that the 2016 roster seems complete at this point and we have yet to see Travis or any of the other prospects play an inning. Not too much to talk about except what the landscape will be like after this season. Can't wait for pitchers and catchers. Then we'll have lots to talk about.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 29, 2016 7:46:18 GMT -5
It seems strange to be debating decisions for 2017. You can have things in mind, but we'll know a lot more after 2016. We're not signing Encarnacion or Bautista now, nor do any decisions need to be made until next fall. It's all tied into losing Ortiz. Outside of Williams there hasn't been a player this organization has seen that has been a lock for 30+ homeruns a year practically every year he's been in Boston. That's fine, but a lot can happen in a year. We have to wait and see what happens with a bunch of players this year. You're a little too locked into this home run thing. There are a lot of ways to score runs. A Wade Boggs could more than replace Papi's offense. And again, this is about Sam Travis. Maybe he hits his ceiling or Travis Shaw turns into Anthony Rizzo. Maybe Bautista or Encarnacion fall off a cliff. And you also have to see what Hanley does. I'll give you my opinion of what they should do next year, next fall.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 29, 2016 14:26:51 GMT -5
I'm not certain why, with Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Elias, Wright, Buchholz, Owens, and Johnson, the Sox need to be shopping for a starter next year. I suppose there could be massive failures and a bundle of injuries, but why assume that? Sure it's a possibility, but I don't think there's a very high likelihood. Personally, I'd like to see Johnson get a shot as soon as possible, and Owens build on his experience at the end of last season. Given the guys in front of them, that alone is going to be difficult. But there still seems to be a desire to keep stuffing even more starters onto the roster. I'm at a loss here. Sorry again for the non Travis note.....Just looking/thinking about the 9 SP you've mentioned. To me, this is the nine we have to basically use this year AND next year barring any trades/FA signings until Espinoza/Kopech can lend a hand. We all know how steep a price you have to pay for even decent SP's via trade/FA these days. That said, I think we'll be OK.
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gerry
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Sam Travis
Jan 30, 2016 14:49:04 GMT -5
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Post by gerry on Jan 30, 2016 14:49:04 GMT -5
I'm not certain why, with Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Elias, Wright, Buchholz, Owens, and Johnson, the Sox need to be shopping for a starter next year. I suppose there could be massive failures and a bundle of injuries, but why assume that? Sure it's a possibility, but I don't think there's a very high likelihood. Personally, I'd like to see Johnson get a shot as soon as possible, and Owens build on his experience at the end of last season. Given the guys in front of them, that alone is going to be difficult. But there still seems to be a desire to keep stuffing even more starters onto the roster. I'm at a loss here. Sorry again for the non Travis note.....Just looking/thinking about the 9 SP you've mentioned. To me, this is the nine we have to basically use this year AND next year barring any trades/FA signings until Espinoza/Kopech can lend a hand. We all know how steep a price you have to pay for even decent SP's via trade/FA these days. That said, I think we'll be OK. Yes, we will probably be OK with these 9 arms, even pretty good, as well as versatile and resilient. To tie this back into Sam Travis, I think we are undervaluing the potential of the mid-upper level prospects. Both Travises may have considerable impact in 2016 and beyond. By the same token, a pitching prospect in AA (Buttrey, Stanky, etc.), might break out and be a valuable tenth arm by mid-season. It is not improbable that Sam and some pitching create needed quality depth in July. So, I agree. We are OK, and wise to be patient with promising prospects.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Feb 1, 2016 11:56:40 GMT -5
I think the consensus is 1-9 there is not a huge drop-off in talent, which is a luxury. I just fear that we don't have the depth as we have in our position players coming up. I may have a false fear here, I just don't see the Ball's, Stankey's, Buttrey's, to push the envelope. That means a lot falls on Espinoza/Kopech to replace Buchholz/Price (assuming opt out).
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 1, 2016 12:35:00 GMT -5
I think the consensus is 1-9 there is not a huge drop-off in talent, which is a luxury. I just fear that we don't have the depth as we have in our position players coming up. I may have a false fear here, I just don't see the Ball's, Stankey's, Buttrey's, to push the envelope. That means a lot falls on Espinoza/Kopech to replace Buchholz/Price (assuming opt out). Teams without the budget the Red Sox have would likely have two of Wright, Owens and Johnson in the rotation right now. We're not in trouble anytime soon. There is a lot of youth and room for improvement. One or more of these depth guys will have the chance to prove themselves this year. Having 9 guys who could be a starter in the majors seems like a luxury to me. We'll take advantage of it while we can, but I don't think it's something we need all the time every year.
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