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Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 24, 2016 13:50:27 GMT -5
If Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi develop to their full power potential, or even to a reasonable extent of it, I don't think the Sox are gonna bind themselves to a contract with an aging slugger. Especially not an injury-prone one like Teixeira. I am a Bautista fan, and even Encarnacion, but I don't trust giving them more than a 2 or 3 year, reasonable deal.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 13:52:01 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 13:52:01 GMT -5
And that's presuming Devers isn't ready at some point in 2017. By all accounts, he's improved at third, he already had a strong arm, and those "body type" issues not only haven't progressed, they've regressed from what I've read. Furthermore, one need look no further than Xander Bogaerts to know that presumptions about a player's "body type" have little real predictive value...especially when, if issues were to arise, they'd likely be years down the road. "Body type" questions/assumptions certainly aren't a remotely valid reason to drop $25-35M a year for 3-4 years on two players **WELL** into the historical decline phase of their careers. I'm not holding Devers body type against him. I hope he proves everyone wrong and becomes a good third baseman. Devers just has a long way to go before being in the conversation. He needs to get on base more. He's definitely the furthest stud position prospect the Sox have (outside of the young and promising Espinoza of course). He definitely has the arm to do it by all accounts, and most of the body type questions will only come into question in his later 20's and 30's most likely.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 13:56:00 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 13:56:00 GMT -5
If Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi develop to their full power potential, or even to a reasonable extent of it, I don't think the Sox are gonna bind themselves to a contract with an aging slugger. Especially not an injury-prone one like Teixeira. I am a Bautista fan, and even Encarnacion, but I don't trust giving them more than a 2 or 3 year, reasonable deal. Problem is you can't rely on rookies for power. It's wishful thinking. There aren't a lot of Mookie's who can come up and be an instant 20/20 guy almost.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 13:59:53 GMT -5
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 24, 2016 13:59:53 GMT -5
If Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi develop to their full power potential, or even to a reasonable extent of it, I don't think the Sox are gonna bind themselves to a contract with an aging slugger. Especially not an injury-prone one like Teixeira. I am a Bautista fan, and even Encarnacion, but I don't trust giving them more than a 2 or 3 year, reasonable deal. Problem is you can't rely on rookies for power. It's wishful thinking. There aren't a lot of Mookie's who can come up and be an instant 20/20 guy almost. That's why I said "reasonable extent" of their power potential though. You don't need a 30-40 homer bat in your lineup to score runs, especially if you have 6 or 7 guys who can hit 15-25, and I think that's what the Sox have coming up. Even if it takes a couple years for them to develop, I still think their offensive production will be good enough. But again, I would like adding a Bautista/Encarnacion type, but with Hanley, and valuing defense so highly, I don't know if that makes too much sense. But I do like the thought of a healthy Joey Bats hitting 35-40 homers for us per year on a 3 year deal.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 14:01:01 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 14:01:01 GMT -5
I just think I'm posing a question that the Sox organization should be thinking about. First and Third base are the future questions in this organization going forward. Maybe the Sox sign Jose Bautista next off-season and they have him play some outfield and third base instead of moving Sam Travis off his comfort zone. Actually Jose Bautista makes a lot of sense looking past 2016. Other than that the Sox have serious questions at third base. Moncada is looking more like a outfielder with his skill set and the comfort he has tracking fly balls versus ground balls. Devers is a question mark because of his body type and he's still has a lot to prove as he keeps developing. Pablo Sandoval doesn't look like anything more than a short term solution at third base. There's huge questions whether Travis Shaw could hit enough to be a everyday player. There's always a free agent that can fill in at first base if need be. Like for example if the Sox don't sign Bautista, then they could go after Mark Texeira there after 2016. If the Sox can create a backup plan by experimenting and seeing if Sam Travis can play at third and not assume he can't, then that will give the Sox more options down the road if need be. Sam Travis's bat plays real well in my eyes at third. It's really hard to find a third baseman that can hit well in the majors. This is something the Sox need to do in 2016, in my opinion. You're proposing signing Bautista, who will be 35, and Teixiera, who will be 37. It looks like you're trying to assemble an all-geriatric team. News flash: at those ages, players are at huge risk for injury and/or precipitous decline. Bautista, if he were willing to do 3/50 or so *might* be a worthwhile gamble...but you're talking about taking an aging player and sticking him at a far more rigorous position. The odds are **way** against your plan working. And Teixera strikes me as an absolute disaster of a signing. Best bet is playing Moncada at 3rd a la Machado, and filling 1b with one of/combo of Travis, Shaw, Ramirez, and/or a low-cost defensively-minded alternative FA/arb-castoff, provided the offense is strong enough otherwise (which it may very well be). Throwing big $ at aging players absolutely isn't the way to construct a team for a longer haul than one or two years. The odds really aren't way against what I'm saying. The Sox will be clearing out almost 30 million aav wise with Ortiz, Koji, and Tazawa leaving. They could net one of those guys easily and probably will be looking to. My guess is that they won't be after Encanarcion because of Hanley however. They're going to need a guy who can play defense. Edit: I'm only proposing signing just one of those players. I favor Bautista because of his versatility on defense.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 14:07:12 GMT -5
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 24, 2016 14:07:12 GMT -5
All this being said, I'd still love to see Travis getting a real shot at decent playing time. There's something to be said about Kyle Schwarber praising his hitting ability, even if his power numbers haven't shown up too extraordinarily yet. At the least, if he could actually play some LF, he could be a valuable piece for us, almost like a reverse Shaw and without the 3B ability. If he could come around to hit 15 homers over a full season, he's an interesting option.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 14:12:55 GMT -5
All this being said, I'd still love to see Travis getting a real shot at decent playing time. There's something to be said about Kyle Schwarber praising his hitting ability, even if his power numbers haven't shown up too extraordinarily yet. At the least, if he could actually play some LF, he could be a valuable piece for us, almost like a reverse Shaw and without the 3B ability. If he could come around to hit 15 homers over a full season, he's an interesting option. I do like Travis' hit tool. He has to hit at a real good clip to stick in the majors. That's going to be tough. The odds are stacked against him as a prospect.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 24, 2016 15:10:33 GMT -5
You know who would be more valuable if they were a good defensive third baseman? Every single first baseman who ever played baseball.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 24, 2016 16:04:48 GMT -5
I'm not holding Devers body type against him. I hope he proves everyone wrong and becomes a good third baseman.[...] This information is outdated. Almost "everyone" was worried about his defense before last year, but lots of people now have been impressed by his work at third in 2015 and are much less worried. For example, in the year in review on this site: "...shows some athleticism both on the bases and in the field. Defensively, Devers made major strides at third base this season with improved conditioning, which subsequently helped both his range and agility. He has plenty of arm for third base, able to make all the throws including from deep behind the third base bag." Or John Sickels: "he did greatly improve his defense and I think he can stick at third."
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 19:11:36 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Jan 24, 2016 19:11:36 GMT -5
Moncada certainly seems more likely to be a decent defensive 3B than Sam Travis. I'm not doubting that. Just trying to find a good position to justify Tavis' hitting approach. The odds are against Travis as a 6 foot right handed first baseman with minimal power. If he were a third baseman, it would be a completely different story. That's an inaccurate assessment. Travis has significant raw power, and a solid hitting approach. He may not ever be a 30-HR guy, but it's not unlikely given his age, approach, and raw power that he could be a .280/.350/.450 hitter. As a low-cost option, with upside, I'm pretty sure the Sox will give him a chance. The three players you mentioned are all incredibly problematic: they already had Cespedes, who they would have to shoehorn into an already talent-crowded OF (especially if, as you say, Moncada is going there). The organization was clearly not enamored of him. Teixiera is old, injury-prone, and probably within a year or three of retirement. Bautista is nearly as old, in decline, and will want a costly multi-year contract. Three of the last four WS-winning teams have had between 22 and 24 HR from their top HR hitter. The exception is the Sox, who have Ortiz. Every "plan" you're espousing fails to take into account the presence of Ramirez and Sandoval at a combined $40M per year. So if the idea is to dump one or both in a salary-dump trade, you're talking about dropping probably $15M per year *each* to unload them and then another $15M or more per year to add a replacement, all for what is likely, given the age of the players you think they'll target, to be 1-2 wins of value at best. That's bad business-$15-30M per win-and I think they'll either package players for a single quality hitter, or more likely, trust the talent they have to develop and rely more heavily on speed/defense/pitching/OBP than power. The automatic assumption of a need for power hitters gets you Chris Davis at 7/160, when he's basically a LH George Bell, who declined precipitously after 31 or so. Power hitting, like power pitching, is overvalued on the open market, and thus the most effective way to acquire it is to develop it yourself. The next best way is to fleece someone at a prospect/young MLBer's buy-low point (see Chris Davis). The worst way is to sign aging, past-prime players for large-dollar/multi-year contracts. I obviously could be wrong, especially if Betts/Bogaerts/JBJ/Swihart stagnate or regress as hitters. But I don't think so...
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 19:28:25 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Jan 24, 2016 19:28:25 GMT -5
To be fair, if 1b opens as Hanley becomes a full-time DH, the question becomes whether or not the Sox use the freed $ (Uehara, Ortiz, +/- Buchholz, Tazawa) to sign their young players to extensions, and get back under the cap. Or, spend on starting pitching (Strasburg?) or, you know, filling the holes created in the bullpen. If one or more of Barnes/Hembree/Light/Jerez breaks through and becomes 7/8th inning material, *and* Smith and Kimbrel pitch well and stay healthy, certainly I could see the Sox offer Bautista 3/50. Like I said, I don't have a huge issue with that. I'd probably prefer that to a bigger, longer-term Encarnacion deal. At the same time, I think there's going to be a fairly fluid roster next winter, depending on how their starting pitching depth (Owens, Johnson, Kelly, Buchholz) and bullpen perform, and if the younger players break out. That $30M freed up will get swallowed up pretty quickly.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 19:48:30 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 19:48:30 GMT -5
You know who would be more valuable if they were a good defensive third baseman? Every single first baseman who ever played baseball. Not all first baseman are right handed......
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 24, 2016 19:54:05 GMT -5
Not all right-handers are first basemen.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 19:55:13 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 19:55:13 GMT -5
I'm not doubting that. Just trying to find a good position to justify Tavis' hitting approach. The odds are against Travis as a 6 foot right handed first baseman with minimal power. If he were a third baseman, it would be a completely different story. Bautista is nearly as old, in decline, Bautista may be getting older but I don't know how you can say a guy is declining when he's coming off a 40 homerun season.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 19:56:29 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 19:56:29 GMT -5
Not all right-handers are first basemen. I've never seen a left handed third baseman. Not all first baseman can play third. That's the point. Sam Travis is right handed.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 20:01:28 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 20:01:28 GMT -5
To be fair, if 1b opens as Hanley becomes a full-time DH, the question becomes whether or not the Sox use the freed $ (Uehara, Ortiz, +/- Buchholz, Tazawa) to sign their young players to extensions, and get back under the cap. Or, spend on starting pitching (Strasburg?) or, you know, filling the holes created in the bullpen. If one or more of Barnes/Hembree/Light/Jerez breaks through and becomes 7/8th inning material, *and* Smith and Kimbrel pitch well and stay healthy, certainly I could see the Sox offer Bautista 3/50. Like I said, I don't have a huge issue with that. I'd probably prefer that to a bigger, longer-term Encarnacion deal. At the same time, I think there's going to be a fairly fluid roster next winter, depending on how their starting pitching depth (Owens, Johnson, Kelly, Buchholz) and bullpen perform, and if the younger players break out. That $30M freed up will get swallowed up pretty quickly. Yeah hopefully a Mookie extension comes soon. I see the Sox trading for a good starter if Eduardo Rodriguez can't emerge as that guy in 2016, hopefully he does. That would lift a huge weight off the Sox shoulders if he can emerge as number 2 or 3 starter soon. I don't see the Sox going after Strasburg. I wouldn't want to go after Strasburg in a thin starting pitching market either. That sounds like bad news. Edit: The luxury tax is due to raise soon enough and there's going to be a new labor agreement soon. So the Sox should worry about next year's luxury tax after the new deal strikes.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 20:06:30 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 20:06:30 GMT -5
Take Ortiz out of this line-up. It looks a lot different. Power hitters are a little "overvalued" but their presence is needed.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 20:15:35 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 20:15:35 GMT -5
That's an inaccurate assessment. Travis has significant raw power, and a solid hitting approach. He may not ever be a 30-HR guy, but it's not unlikely given his age, approach, and raw power that he could be a .280/.350/.450 hitter. As a low-cost option, with upside, I'm pretty sure the Sox will give him a chance. I hope that is the case. I hope he can start putting 10-20 homerun seasons to get in the conversation in the future. He would make for a affordable cheap good hitter in the lineup. With Hanley's history, he'll definitely get a chance. He has to succeed in Pawtucket first. As things stand as of right now, the odds are stacked against him. Hopefully he keeps progressing. I am clearly rooting for the guy because I'm asking about where else the Sox could use him but I also see the limitations and I'm realistic to this point about his situation.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 24, 2016 20:22:06 GMT -5
Take Ortiz out of this line-up. It looks a lot different. Power hitters are a little "overvalued" but their presence is needed. Did you just ignore all of the people pointing out that neither the Royals or Giants had any?
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 20:31:17 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 20:31:17 GMT -5
Take Ortiz out of this line-up. It looks a lot different. Power hitters are a little "overvalued" but their presence is needed. Did you just ignore all of the people pointing out that neither the Royals or Giants had any? The royals and giants play in spacious ballparks and need to win with pitching and defense. Fenway Park is a different animal. The least amount of foul territory in the majors and a 37 foot wall that's really close to home plate. I'm also not ignoring the fact that the al east has a total of 7 hitters in this division alone that hit 30 or more homeruns last season. You need power to play in this division.
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gerry
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 20:54:52 GMT -5
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Post by gerry on Jan 24, 2016 20:54:52 GMT -5
Take Ortiz out of this line-up. It looks a lot different. Power hitters are a little "overvalued" but their presence is needed. Did you just ignore all of the people pointing out that neither the Royals or Giants had any? In fact, the Sox could have a stronger offensive lineup than the Royals and Giants even without Papi. All 9 positions would hit double digit HR, and 25 2B-3B, and the running game would be at least as good as we saw in Aug-Sept. That's a complete offensive package; powerful but not at all station to station. If Hanley hits to his average in ST, this discussion is likely moot anyways. Hanley reports to the Fort early, in just a few weeks, so we will know by the end of next month if we really have to worry.about his bat. If we do have to worry about it, we are fortunate to have Shaw and Holt to step in while DDo makes the necessary changes. Ditto for Panda, for whom Shaw, the excellent defender Marrero, and Holt can hold things together short term. IMO we should never underestimate the power of DDo to fix things quickly and well, which allows us to relax and enjoy the ride; and for still young prospects to find their path and develop without excess pressure. BTW, Teixeira? Really? Is it possible that his wiife would find Boston more worthy than last time? That snub seems irreversible.
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Sam Travis
Jan 24, 2016 21:01:37 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 24, 2016 21:01:37 GMT -5
Did you just ignore all of the people pointing out that neither the Royals or Giants had any? In fact, the Sox could have a stronger offensive lineup than the Royals and Giants even without Papi. All 9 positions would hit double digit HR, and 25 2B-3B, and the running game would be at least as good as we saw in Aug-Sept. That's a complete offensive package; powerful but not at all station to station. If Hanley hits to his average in ST, this discussion is likely moot anyways. Hanley reports to the Fort early, in just a few weeks, so we will know by the end of next month if we really have to worry.about his bat. If we do have to worry about it, we are fortunate to have Shaw and Holt to step in while DDo makes the necessary changes. Ditto for Panda, for whom Shaw, the excellent defender Marrero, and Holt can hold things together short term. IMO we should never underestimate the power of DDo to fix things quickly and well, which allows us to relax and enjoy the ride; and for still young prospects to find their path and develop without excess pressure. BTW, Teixeira? Really? Is it possible that his wiife would find Boston more worthy than last time? That snub seems irreversible. That's nice that it looks better than the giants or royals. How does it stack up versus the division?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 24, 2016 22:18:37 GMT -5
In fact, the Sox could have a stronger offensive lineup than the Royals and Giants even without Papi. All 9 positions would hit double digit HR, and 25 2B-3B, and the running game would be at least as good as we saw in Aug-Sept. That's a complete offensive package; powerful but not at all station to station. If Hanley hits to his average in ST, this discussion is likely moot anyways. Hanley reports to the Fort early, in just a few weeks, so we will know by the end of next month if we really have to worry.about his bat. If we do have to worry about it, we are fortunate to have Shaw and Holt to step in while DDo makes the necessary changes. Ditto for Panda, for whom Shaw, the excellent defender Marrero, and Holt can hold things together short term. IMO we should never underestimate the power of DDo to fix things quickly and well, which allows us to relax and enjoy the ride; and for still young prospects to find their path and develop without excess pressure. BTW, Teixeira? Really? Is it possible that his wiife would find Boston more worthy than last time? That snub seems irreversible. That's nice that it looks better than the giants or royals. How does it stack up versus the division? I don't see how losing draft picks (assuming that's the compensation) is a good idea in order to spend big bucks to sign players who have already seen their best days. That's a recipe for trouble. The Sox are going to go on without Ortiz and I think they've done a good job planning for his absence. I can see the Sox lacking some power in 2017, but I don't think it's a major long-term issue. If Sam Travis rakes then you're essentially replacing Ortiz's bat with Sam Travis' bat as Hanley shifts to DH. Eventually Benintendi, Moncada, and down the road Devers become part of the core of the Red Sox. I think eventually Bogaerts becomes a power hitter, possibly as soon as this year. I think Benintendi will be able to top 20 homers per year, and there's a reasonable chance Devers becomes a middle-of-the order threat, and I'll be really interested to see what becomes of Moncada this year. He's a strong kid. I'm not convinced at all that he doesn't hit more than 12 - 15 homers per year. There's also Shaw's power if Travis isn't ready for prime time next year. I just don't see why the Sox have to play Bautista out of position for big bucks and a draft pick or a sign a veteran Teixeira on his downside and surrender that draft pick. If I'm the Red Sox and I have money to spend, I spend it on front line pitching. Of course if the Sox are going for the home run, then get ready to spend at least $300 million on Bryce Harper after the 2018 season.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 25, 2016 11:48:58 GMT -5
I hope I'm wrong, but Sam Travis seems like a Dave Stapleton type player. Hopefully that's his floor. Not sure who would compare to his ceiling.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 25, 2016 13:24:52 GMT -5
I hope I'm wrong, but Sam Travis seems like a Dave Stapleton type player. Hopefully that's his floor. Not sure who would compare to his ceiling. Gee I hope not. I remember Stapleton having a fluky good rookie year hitting .321 and then declining every year afterward until he became utterly useless. He had a very strange career. I'd like to think that Travis has a better hit tool, one that should help him put up better numbers more consistently. I think he'll be a .280ish hitter with good doubles power, a guy who can hit 40 doubles per year and hit 15 homers per year, which isn't bad in this era of offense.
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