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Post by jdb on Aug 4, 2014 11:50:31 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 12:06:51 GMT -5
I've seen him live but just once. He's more of a control artist, bulldog mentality, but I think he'd be a #4/5 here. That stuff may play better out of the pen. I wouldn't spend starter money on him - plus a posting fee - in this fall's market with all the pitching that's going to be out there. He's a step below Tanaka and a younger Kuroda, and at least two steps down from Darvish.
Just my opinion.
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 4, 2014 12:44:45 GMT -5
Here is Maeda striking out the side against Hideki's former team. Definitely doesn't have the overpowering stuff of Darvish and Tanaka. Nor can I say that his command looked great in this one inning as he hit the glove maybe once, though of course it's just one inning. I'm no scout so I can't say whether his curveball is legit or just a hanger (as it looks to me), but it really is on the slower side. I'll wait to pass judgement until some of the industry guys weigh in, but I agree with Guidas, looks like a 4/5 guy.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 7, 2014 9:58:53 GMT -5
He sounds like a medium-sized market splash signing. I could easily see him signing with the Cubs or a team of that nature.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 7, 2014 12:08:41 GMT -5
If they are considering spending a fortune on a former NPB starter, why not wait out Iwakuma? He's a FA after next season and will be 34, about the same age as some team will be spending a fortune this winter on him and I'd rather spend it on Iwakuma, who relies less on power pitches (his nasty forkball) than on a slider and FB, cutter that will diminish faster with loss in velocity as catches up with Shields, probably somewhat quickly.
Figure both will be seeking 4y deals at the least in the 70m+ neighborhood.
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Post by darkmatter1989 on Aug 9, 2014 6:48:40 GMT -5
I've seen him plenty of times. His 'potential' is as high as a #2 starter (he flashes a plus slider occasionally but mostly is just above average overall). His success rides heavily on that slider, so he's most likely a #3 or a good #4 starter (considering his current development and if he makes the transition to the MLB with no issues of course). He could possibly be a steal considering his stuff isn't as flashy and appealing as Tanaka or Darvish, but he does however still get favorable results overall.
I will say this, he isn't generally known for being accurate actually so charliezink16 is correct. Rather, he is known for not making huge mistakes over the plate especially with runners on base. Also, his walks with runners on base is low (I don't have the statistics, it's just an observation on my part). So, his core stats are a bit deceiving. Also, he still does have room to improve his stuff. This is the reasoning as to why I see his potential being as high as a #2 but realistically around a #3 or #4 barring a poor transition.
As for how much he will get? No idea. I'm generally not one to speculate about these things. However, I can safely say he will get some money.
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pd
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Post by pd on Aug 9, 2014 7:34:00 GMT -5
Sounds a little like Joe Kelly.
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Post by darkmatter1989 on Aug 9, 2014 7:53:02 GMT -5
I would actually place him slightly higher above Joe Kelly in projectability. Maeda is just more polished overall in my opinion.
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Post by jdb on Aug 17, 2014 9:50:11 GMT -5
Heres a blog that was link on mlbtr. Pretty good read on him that includes stuff,size, projection and teams that could be involved. beisbols.org/2014/08/14/new-arm-npb-2015/This past week, it was reported that the Arizona Diamondbacks were added to the list of teams interested in twenty-six year old Nippon Professional Baseball starting pitcher Kenta Maeda. The Hiroshima Toyo Carp pitcher will likely be pursued by those who missed out on Masahiro Tanaka, namely the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs among others, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. Unlike Shohei Otani, whom I covered fairly in-depth here, there is a considerably stronger possibility that Maeda gets posted following the 2014 Major League Baseball season.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2014 12:57:21 GMT -5
OMG - if Otani was posted I would be completely in. No way that happens in the next couple years unless his team suddenly wants a $20M cash infusion as he's only 20, but he would get more than Tanaka. Good control, holds 95MPH the whole game and can hop it up to near 100 and has two other pitches that are above ave to plus. Also has an offensive game with a quick swing and some significant pop though at the plate. Not the greatest OPB guy (doesn't like to walk, Ks more than you'd like).
Remember the name. He will be one EVERYONE wants as soon as he's made available.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 17, 2014 13:12:15 GMT -5
OMG - if Otani was posted I would be completely in. No way that happens in the next couple years unless his team suddenly wants a $20M cash infusion as he's only 20, but he would get more than Tanaka. Good control, holds 95MPH the whole game and can hop it up to near 100 and has two other pitches that are above ave to plus. Also has an offensive game with a quick swing and some significant pop though at the plate. Not the greatest OPB guy (doesn't like to walk, Ks more than you'd like). Remember the name. He will be one EVERYONE wants as soon as he's made available. And Otani will be ours, unless of course the Yankees or Dodgers offer him 250 million over 8 years.
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Post by darkmatter1989 on Aug 17, 2014 14:22:30 GMT -5
Coincidentally Ohtani is on the team I follow the most (Hokkaido Fighters). Last year he was not filled out. Very lanky. But during this season he's added about 15 pounds (and still adding weight). It's lead to his velocity being more consistent.
Last year it could dip to the low 90's, but as Quidas stated, he sits around 95mph now. I will say this though, the games he seems most effective are the games when he rely's less on the speed. He tends to over rely on trying to overpower hitters with his fastball and his slider when in trouble which coincidentally usually get's him into more trouble like his most recent game. Only 3 runs in 7 innings. However he walked 8, struck out 6, had 2 wild pitches, and had 4 hits allowed (1HR). He really struggled. And for those that care about pitch counts, he threw 149 pitches.
Considering the other games he's had this year, he is still one of the top pitching talents in the NPB already at just 20 years old. He is a bonafide stud.
The Fighters have also 2 other guys that potentially try to come to the MLB. Dai-Kang Yoh and Sho Nakata.
Yoh strikes out quite a bit and as a result his OBPS stats aren't 'stellar' apart from this year. He has average power and plus speed. He can steal quite effectively (when healthy). 41 steals & 10 times caught last year. Defensively, he has incredible range. Routes aren't always the best, however I would say his range overall is close to JBJ's perhaps even better (due to Yoh's top end speed). Going by the Sox Prospect system, I'd place him as a 7 potential but 6 projected. Interesting choice and worth a look at if he ever comes state side. Only downside is that he is 27 already. Good news, he still seems to have room to improve witht he tools he has. Extra note (if this means anything); Yoh is a clutch hitter. I don't have the numbers in front of me but his offensive numbers from the 8th inning and beyond are likely better.
As for Sho, his ceiling like Yoh's is a 7 but, I would place him above Yoh. Right now they are about equal in offensive production. So Sho would also be a 6 at the moment. What separates Sho from Yoh is that Sho has massive and I mean MASSIVE power potential. No stranger to 500ft estimates on his HR's during High School and a few times in spring games. Like Yoh though, he strikes out a lot... except this year. And in years past, he really struggled taking walks. But from last year and this year, he has improved on that front a lot. Defensively... Sho can be a nightmare. I'm sure there is a compilation somewhere showing his blunders. Very Manny-esque and his range is about the same. But the last 2 seasons haven't been bad at all. Overall, he is fringe average defensively. One thing to note actually is that this year he has suffered some knee problems and his speed/range has suffered. Will have to see this off season if it lingers.
Sorry for rambling. To keep this on topic, one thing I forgot to mention about Kenta Maeda is that the Central League he plays in is pretty offensive this year. CL has 4.40 runs a game (Pacific League is just 4.04 runs) and Kenta Maeda (excluding his last disaster of a start in the rain where he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings) was leading the league in ERA by like 0.5+ runs. Right now his ERA is 2.65 which is good for 2nd in the league. Just thought I'd update you all on this. I still think he is worth looking at in 2015 regardless of his last start.
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Post by soxfanatic on Sept 15, 2014 15:37:51 GMT -5
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 15, 2014 16:10:29 GMT -5
I'm wondering what kind of contract he would command. It benefits us that part of his price is the posting fee (luxury tax and impact on low market clubs) and he won't require a draft pick. For those reasons + Tanaka's success he may be a very big target of the Yanks.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 15, 2014 17:50:51 GMT -5
I'd wait for Otani.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Sept 15, 2014 19:59:30 GMT -5
Who is Otani and why do you prefer him?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 15, 2014 20:46:12 GMT -5
He's a phenom, potential for 3 plus pitches. He probably won't be posted anytime soon though. If I had to guess if say 2016 but I'm far from sure.
I prefer him to Maeda because everyone would. But Maeda is being posted soon and will be MLB ready next year, so it's apples and oranges really.
I would pass on Maeda though. Especially seeing how much it would cost to get our foot in the door.
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Post by joshv02 on Sept 15, 2014 22:41:41 GMT -5
Otani is the kid who publically said he didn't want to be drafted, only to go 1-1. He is under team control for 7 years, so they can keep him through 2020 - I can't see him being posted before 2018, assuming he still has an arm and doesn't decide to be a poet (or outfielder). Its a long ways away - he isn't in anyone's conversation yet.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 15, 2014 22:55:08 GMT -5
Please, please do not sign this guy. If we sign him I will really start to get worried that this and the Castillo signing were just signings to convince the pink hats we've got the next foreign superstars. The unknown is always more attractive than the known to baseball fans, but we need to get good MLB players like Sandoval, Lester or Hamels, not unknowns who most think project as a 4 starter like Maeda
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Sept 16, 2014 10:56:56 GMT -5
I watched some videos on Otani and he will probably bring 200 mil. As far an Maeda I'll trust our scouts. He doesn't look like a number one or two to me. I don't mind signing him to low end number two money. Add Lester and our staff will look on paper pretty good.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 16, 2014 12:31:14 GMT -5
He's exactly the kind of guy who I don't want the Red Sox to splurge for, only to have him post a 2.38 ERA by the all-star break.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 5, 2014 15:26:12 GMT -5
Part of that article which caught my attention the most was the area regarding Kent Maeda, his preferred destinations (NYY/Boston) and how much his cost will possibly be (6/120m). Think myself Maeda will be looking at another team other than those 2 for a salary over 80-100m. From what have read about his abilities, they are not of Tanaka/Darvish. Both teams have other holes to fill and not enough cash before taking gambles on what could be a bust, or another valuable Iwakuma type.
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Post by redsox4242 on Oct 5, 2014 15:48:38 GMT -5
Boy, i would love if we signed Maeda, He would be an immediate upgrade and is only 26 years old. From what i have seen, i think he will be just as good as Tanaka. He has a good velocity and his Slider is awesome. Thoughts?
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Oct 5, 2014 16:18:58 GMT -5
Part of that article which caught my attention the most was the area regarding Kent Maeda, his preferred destinations (NYY/Boston) and how much his cost will possibly be (6/120m). Think myself Maeda will be looking at another team other than those 2 for a salary over 80-100m. From what have read about his abilities, they are not of Tanaka/Darvish. Both teams have other holes to fill and not enough cash before taking gambles on what could be a bust, or another valuable Iwakuma type. If a 4 starter, an unknown one at that, is going to cost 20 AAV then well i don't know anymore.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 5, 2014 17:54:06 GMT -5
Boy, i would love if we signed Maeda, He would be an immediate upgrade and is only 26 years old. From what i have seen, i think he will be just as good as Tanaka. He has a good velocity and his Slider is awesome. Thoughts? I have heard nothing that puts him remotely at the same skill level as Tanaka and would probably rather have him pitch at my head than have us spend $120M on him.
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