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2015 Draft Discussion
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 24, 2015 12:18:46 GMT -5
If we're going to debate Fulmer who is a starter but some say he ends up a releiver then I may as well throw out the name Tyler Jay. 6-1, 185 lb LHP from Illinois who is being used in the pen as a late inning reliever but many believe he can start. Throws a mid 90's FB and a power curveball both of which he can locate reasonably well. His third pitch is a developing change up which he has to throw little in relief. Could be a possibility at 7 if the team can also save $750,000 to $1,000,000 on the budget which would be the relative price, $2.84 to $2.54 million, of around the 14th through 16th pick. With no 2nd rounder this would allow the team to push the 3rd round pick value of $742,400 up to $1.5 or $1.75 million in the instance an upside prospect falls or spread around the savings to get a few better quality players 3 through 5. Tyler Jay is certainly intriguing. Coming into the season he shared a similar story to Dillon Tate: both dominated as relievers for Team USA. Unlike Tate, he has no track record of starting so the Sox would have to draft him purely based off of projection. Risky move, but then again probably everyone at #7 will have some sort of risk attached.
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Post by philarhody on Apr 24, 2015 12:32:49 GMT -5
Law's 100 percent right here. holy smokes that's alot of late elbow torque
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 24, 2015 12:48:07 GMT -5
Totally on the stump for Brady Aiken, if his physical is OK. Great upside, but they definitely need to make sure they are comfortable with his rehab. In a draft they are calling below average, I'd like to swing for the fences with Aiken. I also am not sure that Fulmer may be too high for the #7 pick. Go with the letter "A"......Aiken or Allard.
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Post by juniorp90 on Apr 24, 2015 14:06:13 GMT -5
If we're going to debate Fulmer who is a starter but some say he ends up a releiver then I may as well throw out the name Tyler Jay. 6-1, 185 lb LHP from Illinois who is being used in the pen as a late inning reliever but many believe he can start. Throws a mid 90's FB and a power curveball both of which he can locate reasonably well. His third pitch is a developing change up which he has to throw little in relief. Could be a possibility at 7 if the team can also save $750,000 to $1,000,000 on the budget which would be the relative price, $2.84 to $2.54 million, of around the 14th through 16th pick. With no 2nd rounder this would allow the team to push the 3rd round pick value of $742,400 up to $1.5 or $1.75 million in the instance an upside prospect falls or spread around the savings to get a few better quality players 3 through 5. Tyler Jay is certainly intriguing. Coming into the season he shared a similar story to Dillon Tate: both dominated as relievers for Team USA. Unlike Tate, he has no track record of starting so the Sox would have to draft him purely based off of projection. Risky move, but then again probably everyone at #7 will have some sort of risk attached. To take risks so best to take a "safe" bet on James Kaprielian, with which it could also be saving money ... And as I read his fastball has increased, accompanied by three shots over do a future starter 3 or 4 . But this is not what is expected. As have always said, is to select the best talent available.
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Post by mjammz on Apr 24, 2015 21:49:52 GMT -5
Adam Sparks @adamsparks Carson Fulmer done for night with a 23-inning scoreless streak intact. His 3-game line now at 23 IP, 0 R, 8 H, 34 K.
Fulmer tonight vs. Mizzou: 7IP 3H 0R 4 BB 11 K
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 25, 2015 19:48:43 GMT -5
I agree with Steve go for Aiken. I will never say one bad thing if they feel the medicals are okay.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 25, 2015 19:49:56 GMT -5
My final choice as of now is Allard. I think he has Aiken's upside with less injury risk.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 25, 2015 21:19:44 GMT -5
My final choice as of now is Allard. I think he has Aiken's upside with less injury risk. Allard has a back problem. That scares me a ton more than TJS.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 25, 2015 21:43:11 GMT -5
My final choice as of now is Allard. I think he has Aiken's upside with less injury risk. Allard has a back problem. That scares me a ton more than TJS. From what I've heard Allard has had a stress reaction in his back, similar to what Bucholz had a few years ago. It's probably not an issue (it's basically a healing stress fracture) long-term, but I still prefer Aiken. His TJ surgery is obviously a major concern, but he's young for his class and since it's replacement surgery, there shouldn't be any further issues unless he's got some rare global congenital ligament issues, which seems awfully unlikely. His pitchability was off the charts for 17-18.
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Post by larrycook on Apr 26, 2015 14:05:40 GMT -5
I really like Bregman of LSU. He is using right field more than previously, makes him even more dangerous.
Any chance he is available at 7?
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Post by jdb on Apr 26, 2015 15:41:06 GMT -5
I really like Bregman of LSU. He is using right field more than previously, makes him even more dangerous. Any chance he is available at 7? Hard to say with these injuries and the fact a lot of the talking heads are saying deals will be cut in the top 5-10. I'd say unlikely right now but we have a ways to go.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 26, 2015 21:34:20 GMT -5
Right now he is top 4~5. But things always can change.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 10:44:15 GMT -5
I'd love to be able to talk to a scout about this. So many of these draft pitchers are getting tweets like "player X hit 99, sitting 94-96." Does that really mean anything moving forward? For example, Ty Buttrey hit 96 in high school and is now 89-92. That seems to be the case for most drafted pitchers. Is the radar porn ever sustainable or just some kind of trick? Can pitchers throw harder than they actually can if they don't care where it goes?
I'm getting to the point where I don't really care about it that much.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 27, 2015 11:19:02 GMT -5
You have to figure that given the size and strength of these high school kids many can hit 96 or even higher. What counts is whether their FB sits at 96, or higher. Then there is something to get excited about.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 12:21:38 GMT -5
You have to figure that given the size and strength of these high school kids many can hit 96 or even higher. What counts is whether their FB sits at 96, or higher. Then there is something to get excited about. I view it like when Webster was sitting 97-99 a few springs ago and then he wound up around 90-92.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 27, 2015 12:44:53 GMT -5
I have to admit I never understood Webster.
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Post by jmei on Apr 27, 2015 13:46:11 GMT -5
My understanding is that it's mostly journalists (and I include most blogs in this category) getting fed bad or exaggerated information. Sometimes it's just because a guy throwing fast makes for a good story, sometimes the scout source has an agenda.
ADD: a more banal explanation is that for draftees and in ST, sometimes a guy will overthrow when there are lots of scouts in the stands because velo gets you paid/promoted.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 27, 2015 13:59:55 GMT -5
I have to admit I never understood Webster. Not sure Allen ever understood Webster. One BIG flirt!
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 28, 2015 13:21:55 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list is up: m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=draft. 1) Rodgers 2) Tate 3) Swanson 4) Funkhouser 5) Bregman 6) Nikorak 7) Fulmer 8) Tucker 9) Buehler 10) Harris Also, Jim Callis answering a lot of draft questions today: Jim Callis @jimcallismlb Bregman might be best-case scenario, nice value there and could get to 7. @dmartpitt: ideal pick for redsox at 7? @mlbdraft Jim Callis @jimcallismlb More on redsox: I don't think they would do that at 7. @dmartpitt Do they take injury risks in Matuella or Aiken if available? @mlbdraft
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Apr 28, 2015 15:49:25 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list is up: m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=draft. 1) Rodgers 2) Tate 3) Swanson 4) Funkhouser 5) Bregman 6) Nikorak 7) Fulmer 8) Tucker 9) Buehler 10) Harris Also, Jim Callis answering a lot of draft questions today: Jim Callis @jimcallismlb Bregman might be best-case scenario, nice value there and could get to 7. @dmartpitt: ideal pick for redsox at 7? @mlbdraft Jim Callis @jimcallismlb More on redsox: I don't think they would do that at 7. @dmartpitt Do they take injury risks in Matuella or Aiken if available? @mlbdraft I'd be pretty happy with anyone in this top 8. I think I'd slot in Matuella and/or Aiken after Bregman (and before Funkhouser) if I felt good enough about their medicals.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 28, 2015 16:59:32 GMT -5
Everyone is ready for Aiken to fall to the Yankees at 16, right? I just want everyone to prepare mentally for that right now.
I try not to engage too much in the whole NYY paranoia thing but it's just too perfect here.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 28, 2015 17:25:05 GMT -5
Everyone is ready for Aiken to fall to the Yankees at 16, right? I just want everyone to prepare mentally for that right now. I try not to engage too much in the whole NYY paranoia thing but it's just too perfect here. I can see that. I don't like it. Ideally to me, the Sox unload some of their July 2 IFA bonus pool and maybe pick up a comp balance pick or two. Then they sign Aiken at 7 for an under-slot deal and use the substantial savings (hopefully he'd be amenable to taking a high-teens bonus since he's being predicted as low 20s at best) to pick up some sandwich-round talent later on, a la Mookie, Cecchini, and Coyle. Maybe they get one or (if very lucky) two more top-50 talents along with a guy who has 1-1 ability. With a loaded farm system, and Kopech and Ball looking pretty good, I think a shot at a rare talent, risky as it may be, is warranted.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 28, 2015 17:39:25 GMT -5
Everyone is ready for Aiken to fall to the Yankees at 16, right? I just want everyone to prepare mentally for that right now. I try not to engage too much in the whole NYY paranoia thing but it's just too perfect here. I can see that. I don't like it. Ideally to me, the Sox unload some of their July 2 IFA bonus pool and maybe pick up a comp balance pick or two. Then they sign Aiken at 7 for an under-slot deal and use the substantial savings (hopefully he'd be amenable to taking a high-teens bonus since he's being predicted as low 20s at best) to pick up some sandwich-round talent later on, a la Mookie, Cecchini, and Coyle. Maybe they get one or (if very lucky) two more top-50 talents along with a guy who has 1-1 ability. With a loaded farm system, and Kopech and Ball looking pretty good, I think a shot at a rare talent, risky as it may be, is warranted. While I haven't heard anything specific on this, I don't think we can just assume Aiken will take a below-slot deal. He was the #1 overall pick last year and a likely top 3 pick this year until TJ surgery. I'm sure he is confident in his abilities and expects to get paid in-line with where he is drafted. Guys like Fedde, Hoffman, and Giolito were all coming off of TJ and signed for right around slot. Sure, you might be able to save a little, but I don't think the Red Sox would make that pick expecting a decent chunk to spend elsewhere.
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Post by Smittyw on Apr 28, 2015 17:42:03 GMT -5
I admit to knowing very little about these matters, but as I hear this draft class widely described as unusually weak at the top and see us linked heavily now to a guy many in the industry think is a reliever (Fulmer), the idea of swinging for the fences with Aiken is sounding better and better.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 28, 2015 18:24:54 GMT -5
It's easy to say that they should swing for the fences on Aiken but we just don't know the extent of his issues. People are being very vague right now but Callis, Kiley and Law all seem to agree or are hearing the same things that there are other issues with Aiken other that just tommy john. What that is I don't know and likely we won't hear definitively what it is before the draft. Maybe the Red Sox find out and feel comfortable we shall see I guess.
Having said that for the Red Sox my top scenarios are:
1) One of their top 5 rated players drops for some reason. The DBacks are a wildcard. It would not surprise me if they went for someone perceived lower in the board like Daz Cameron or Newman or someone else. The Astros have a lot of picks so they might try to get a deal so they can spend heavy later in the draft. This may enable one of the top guys to drop to 7.
2) They make an unconventional pick with Fulmer or Jay. I'm more familiar with Fulmer so I'll talk about him. As I have said I get it with the concerns about him but again the dude has been dominant and this draft is weak so no one is the pretty prospect. everyone has questions. I might feel more comfortable with the dude that has been dominant and held up well but is unconventional.
3) The medicals come clean for these guys that are hurt and the the upside is too good to pass up in which case it probably trumps scenario #2 I have here.
4) They do a deal with someone, maybe Cody Ponce or Ian Happ (IDK just giving an idea), and spend the savings later. If they had the 2nd round pick I would say this scenario would be more probable but given they don't pick until the 3rd round it's kind of tough to see.
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