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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 9, 2014 16:12:32 GMT -5
Some interesting HR data from hittracker on Allen Craig, starting with 2014 data. Is he losing bat speed or just hurt? It appears it could be either but there looks to be a regression over the course of 3 years: 2014 HR Data above - Allen Craig. 2013 HR Data above - Allen Craig. 2012 HR Data above - Allen Craig. This data compiled through: hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2014_1394&type=hitter
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 10, 2014 16:54:17 GMT -5
Looks like he isn't pulling the ball. Maybe it's a mechanical problem that's throwing off his timing.
The inability to pull the ball is killing Cecchini too. If you aren't pulling the ball at all you likely aren't hitting for much power.
Hopefully our staff can help him figure it out.
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Post by SoxInTx on Aug 10, 2014 18:25:47 GMT -5
I vote that he is hurt and just needs to recover properly. I refuse to believe that you can go from an OPS in the upper .800 to the .630 it has been this year. His mechanics are there I am just think he has pain in his ankle every time he swings.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 10, 2014 19:50:22 GMT -5
I'm all in on Craig. I think he'll return to form.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 10, 2014 20:32:32 GMT -5
I'm all in on Craig. I think he'll return to form. Why? What are you basing his returning to form on? Don't get me wrong, I think he has a bounce back season in him, and that is when cherrington should sell, because at the end of the day, he is basically at a similar place as Victorino, the year before we signed him.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 10, 2014 21:52:32 GMT -5
If Craig reverts back to form he is a decent left fielder for us particularly in Fenway, at a reasonable cost. And after Papi and/or Napoli are gone he slides right into the DH / 1st base slots. If Craig and Kelly are on form it is a huge trade for this team. I just wonder if the above noted change in him pulling the ball is indicative of something other than the ankle. One would think maybe.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 10, 2014 21:57:06 GMT -5
I'm all in on Craig. I think he'll return to form. Why? What are you basing his returning to form on? Don't get me wrong, I think he has a bounce back season in him, and that is when cherrington should sell, because at the end of the day, he is basically at a similar place as Victorino, the year before we signed him. I'm basing on the fact that this year was an outlier to his performance so far and the Dr. who did his surgery gave him a thumbs up after examining him this past week.
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Post by jmei on Aug 10, 2014 22:00:33 GMT -5
I've previously posted a few links extensively analyzing Craig's issues this year: forum.soxprospects.com/post/100669/threadI'm still not convinced he's necessarily injured. Sometimes good players just have really bad years. Victor Martinez went .879 OPS - .701 - .850 from 2007-2009. Hunter Pence went .871 - .743 - .822 from 2011-2013. But even if he's not injured, Craig should bounce back-- good players don't just drop off the face of the earth at age 30.
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Post by britalb on Aug 11, 2014 23:00:54 GMT -5
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hank
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Post by hank on Aug 12, 2014 9:34:18 GMT -5
Is it possible Craig could be used in the role Gomes had in a platoon with Nava?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2014 9:52:54 GMT -5
Is it possible Craig could be used in the role Gomes had in a platoon with Nava? Only if Victorino is never healthy and/or Cespedes can play RF and/or one or both are traded.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 12, 2014 13:56:08 GMT -5
If Craig, Cespedes and Nava are all here in 2015, how do we envision them being used?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 12, 2014 15:21:13 GMT -5
Count me in with the idea that the Lachey trade was a good one. Craig IS a professional hitter. He will be a steal for us and we will look back on this thread and say what were we thinking. I can't for the life of me see how Craig plus Kelly isn't a big win for us. It totally amazes me how we look at a player (Pedroia) and decide the good times are over. It may not happen until 2015, but both guys will be big for us.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 12, 2014 16:55:01 GMT -5
I'm with you on that one Steve. It looks like a steal really, which makes me wonder what I am missing. If Craig is healthy it looks like a year and a half control of Lackey for a lot longer control of 2 players of almost equal value potentially. St Louis is a smart org. What are we missing?
Could it be that Craig is losing bat speed, when it is very unusual at his age. There are other things which could cause him to lose his power and ability to pull, including of course his injury. Apparently they are pitching him more inside so it's not that.
The answer to this question solves the mystery of this deal probably in my opinion. Maybe we overrate Kelly as well but he is at least a decent 5th starter one would think at this point.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 12, 2014 17:09:20 GMT -5
St. Louis is an extremely well run organization, which makes me hesitant to be too excited about this deal. I can't help but fell like they know something about Craig that we don't know. If Craig doesn't bounce back - for whatever reason - his contract becomes a decent sized liability towards the end. In that scenario, Joe Kelly + (liability) is a pretty terrible return for Lackey.
I'm hopeful that he will bounce back, but it is far from a certainty.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 13, 2014 4:47:12 GMT -5
St. Louis is an extremely well run organization, which makes me hesitant to be too excited about this deal. I can't help but fell like they know something about Craig that we don't know. If Craig doesn't bounce back - for whatever reason - his contract becomes a decent sized liability towards the end. In that scenario, Joe Kelly + (liability) is a pretty terrible return for Lackey. I'm hopeful that he will bounce back, but it is far from a certainty. This is exactly how I feel as well.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 13, 2014 8:07:34 GMT -5
From reading the St Louis papers around the deal, the impression I got is that the Cardinals think Craig may be damaged goods and may never get totally back. It's a risk they're taking because they don't know for sure, but they were willing to trade off that risk to get Lackey. If Craig comes back fully, they lose that trade for sure, but I think they just figure it's worth the gamble.
And Lackey for a full season at the minimum is really valuable, so it's not like the Cardinals weren't getting value in return.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 8:24:19 GMT -5
From reading the St Louis papers around the deal, the impression I got is that the Cardinals think Craig may be damaged goods and may never get totally back. It's a risk they're taking because they don't know for sure, but they were willing to trade off that risk to get Lackey. If Craig comes back fully, they lose that trade for sure, but I think they just figure it's worth the gamble. And Lackey for a full season at the minimum is really valuable, so it's not like the Cardinals weren't getting value in return. And they can do a lot with that money freed up, whereas we don't really care about it. And of course it unblocked Taveras. I'm not so sure it's because they knew he'd never recover because of all of the other positive things it did for them.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 13, 2014 8:33:00 GMT -5
St. Louis is in a very different situation though right. They are trying to get more PT for Tavaras. They are trying to win their division and make the playoffs again, and Lackey is a proven commodity in the playoffs as they well know. And they can't afford to carry Craig's salary if he is sunk cost as well as Boston. Boston has gotten little offensively out of their OF and only have Napoli for another year and a couple months at 1st comnpared to St Louis's situation. Even if they calculate Craig's situation accurately, with the same medicals shared between both orgs, Boston probably factors that information differently.
This could be win / win even if Boston wins bigger. I like our chances.
When we factor in the other deals as well, I think Cherington absolutely did his job. He still has work to do but he absolutely repositioned this team well for next winter already.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 13, 2014 9:47:16 GMT -5
I'm interested to see what the community thinks about Cherington's statements about focusing on building the MLB roster for 2015 rather than accepting prospects during this past deadline. Obviously we can only speculate as to the prospect packages that were on the table, but I'm wondering - does anyone think that Cherington and Co. would accept a lesser package (of Craig and Kelly, for example) of MLB ready guys simply because they're going to be ready in 2015 vs. 2016-2020? With all the patience the organization has shown in recent years holding onto kids like Swihart, Mookie, and Xander, I was a little puzzled to see all the moves bring in guys with more of a focus on the present.. Not that I'm complaining about it - I obviously would like the club to contend in 2015. However, my gut tells me they may have overlooked a prospect package with a far greater potential return, simply because it didn't align with their desired timeline. Thoughts?
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Post by tonyc on Aug 13, 2014 12:37:53 GMT -5
Mookie,
If I were to postulate, the deadline is a frenetic and moving target with multiple teams bidding players and the market changes by the moment, hence they probably assessed the most beneficial overall deal and went with it. This is why for instance, they may not have gotten quite the package one would have expected initially for Lester, once Masterson was traded taking out St. Louis, and Price entered the market. Also, they factored in the number of prospects and 40 man picture as well, figuring there was already a wealth of potential in the system as is, and knew they added with the Peavy trade, and perhaps knew the Andrew Miller trade would add more, so the balanced approach they took in the trades as a whole did add prospects, as well as players to help with 2015 and address the power issues- so nice to have Cherington at the helm at this complex time (not Lou Gorman).
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Post by dcsoxfan on Sept 4, 2014 21:54:50 GMT -5
Craig looks as lost as Middlebrooks. I have some real concerns about Allen Craig. It may be that the Sox bought low on a guy with an injury. But it may be that that injury is chronic. It may also be that this is a guy who looked better than he actually was by virtue of playing against younger competition in the minors. His first full Major League season was his age 27 season, and each subsequent season has been progressively worse. Given that he WILL be paid better than $10 million in both 2016 and 2017, I think they would have done better chasing prospects. If he shows any signs of life next year, I would consider trading him . . . it may not last.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 4, 2014 22:12:41 GMT -5
The lackey trade is looking pretty bad so far. Why not just DL craig and get him healthy.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 5, 2014 6:36:04 GMT -5
The lackey trade is looking pretty bad so far. Why not just DL craig and get him healthy. Because there's no indication that he's been hurt all year. His swing is just a mess.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2014 8:18:03 GMT -5
The lackey trade is looking pretty bad so far. Why not just DL craig and get him healthy. Because there's no indication that he's been hurt all year. His swing is just a mess. I've said this before, but there have been zero reports suggesting that he's actually been injured this year (besides the jammed ankle that put him out for 15 days after he first got traded, which has long since healed and was extremely minor in the first place).
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