Post by ericmvan on Aug 12, 2014 23:53:21 GMT -5
1) Margot is having a decent August so far: .458 / .509 / .729 in 53 PA.
2) I've been dismissing De La Cruz as a prospect because of his awful overall lines the last two years, but I've just noticed that he's had immense splits. His numbers versus RHP would absolutely make him a prospect, so I do think he still warrants watching after all, as he has a ceiling as a platoon 4th OF.
3) On July 27 Cechhini was at .243 / .321 / .317, with an .013 HR/Contact.
He then homered in back to back games, the start of an 8-game stretch where he went .161 / .235 / .355, with an .080 HRC, and of course a boost in Iso from .074 to .194.
Now, 99 times out a hundred that would be a SSS fluke rather than from an adjustment or a change in approach.
But in his last 4 games, he's 9/19, 3 2B, HR (.473 / .473 / .842). I'm not quite curious enough to check whether he's ever had that Iso or SA over any 4-game stretch in his career, but it wouldn't surprise me if that were the case.
As anyone who saw him homer in (IIRC) the 2013 AFL All-Star game, he has always had the strength to be a power hitter. The swing was just not anything resembling a power-hitter's swing. But he's now had as many HR in his last 41 times making contact as he did in his previous 359 going back to last year. That's not random.
The other thing that's relevant is his hit locations. Balls in play last 4 games:
LD 1B to LF
FO to CF
GB 1B to LF
FB 2B to CF
PU to 3B
GO to 2B
GB 1B to CF
LD 2B to RF ("soft")
LD 2B to LF
GO to 2B
GO to 2B
LD 1B to RF ("soft")
GO to 1B
GB 1B to RF
LO to SS
FB HR to RF
No change in GB%, but balls in the air are 3-2-3 LF-CF-RF, and although no one appears to be tracking LF / CF / RF for minor leaguers (and even at the MLB level, no one separates grounders from balls in the air, even though the splits tend to be different), my sense is that he used to hit a lot more balls to LF than RF. He's also gone 1-1-5 on grounders, and I doubt that's what he used to do, too.
Again, we'd completely ignore this in isolation, and it's only useful as mild to moderate support for the notion that he's doing something different. (It's often useful to look at something that you know couldn't possibly be significant, just to see if it trends in the right direction.)
Certainly interesting.
2) I've been dismissing De La Cruz as a prospect because of his awful overall lines the last two years, but I've just noticed that he's had immense splits. His numbers versus RHP would absolutely make him a prospect, so I do think he still warrants watching after all, as he has a ceiling as a platoon 4th OF.
3) On July 27 Cechhini was at .243 / .321 / .317, with an .013 HR/Contact.
He then homered in back to back games, the start of an 8-game stretch where he went .161 / .235 / .355, with an .080 HRC, and of course a boost in Iso from .074 to .194.
Now, 99 times out a hundred that would be a SSS fluke rather than from an adjustment or a change in approach.
But in his last 4 games, he's 9/19, 3 2B, HR (.473 / .473 / .842). I'm not quite curious enough to check whether he's ever had that Iso or SA over any 4-game stretch in his career, but it wouldn't surprise me if that were the case.
As anyone who saw him homer in (IIRC) the 2013 AFL All-Star game, he has always had the strength to be a power hitter. The swing was just not anything resembling a power-hitter's swing. But he's now had as many HR in his last 41 times making contact as he did in his previous 359 going back to last year. That's not random.
The other thing that's relevant is his hit locations. Balls in play last 4 games:
LD 1B to LF
FO to CF
GB 1B to LF
FB 2B to CF
PU to 3B
GO to 2B
GB 1B to CF
LD 2B to RF ("soft")
LD 2B to LF
GO to 2B
GO to 2B
LD 1B to RF ("soft")
GO to 1B
GB 1B to RF
LO to SS
FB HR to RF
No change in GB%, but balls in the air are 3-2-3 LF-CF-RF, and although no one appears to be tracking LF / CF / RF for minor leaguers (and even at the MLB level, no one separates grounders from balls in the air, even though the splits tend to be different), my sense is that he used to hit a lot more balls to LF than RF. He's also gone 1-1-5 on grounders, and I doubt that's what he used to do, too.
Again, we'd completely ignore this in isolation, and it's only useful as mild to moderate support for the notion that he's doing something different. (It's often useful to look at something that you know couldn't possibly be significant, just to see if it trends in the right direction.)
Certainly interesting.