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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 12, 2014 14:20:44 GMT -5
In general I am very interested in some of the prospects we don't hear as much about. Carson Blair is one of those guys.
Blair was a 35th round bonus baby whom the Sox signed out of a Tulane commitment in 2008. A high school infielder, the Sox converted him to catcher. He promptly failed to hit, spending parts of three years in the GCL. Yet over the years he started to show gradual improvement at the plate to the point where he hit quite well at Salem this year even though he has struck out a ton. It's not unusual for catchers to take a long time to develop their offensive skills as there are some pretty good ones that didn't even sniff the majors until their late 20s.
Blair is a minor league free agent coming up and it doesn't sound like there is room for him on the minor league roster. He has at least hit well enough in my opinion that the Sox should try to resign him to a minor league deal if they can.
I can read his stats just fine, but we don't hear a lot about him from a scouting perspective. I would like to hear from some posters that have seen him play this year. Could he one day be even a backup catcher? Given the state of catching will some team sign him to a major league deal this winter? He's obviously a candidate for the AFL. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2014 2:25:17 GMT -5
Having just looked at him in detail for the first time ever, I'm even more enthused.
He played at Salem for 3 years. That's a tough park for home runs, otherwise fairly neutral. Blair had a big home / road split each year, even though the samples in the first two years were very small (65-100 PA per split). That really makes me think the splits were legitimate.
Check out these 3-year totals for Salem, with the 2014 Carolina league rates for context:
Split PA BA OBP SA K% BB% HRC BABIP XB%
Home 313 .221 .335 .355 .291 .141 .023 .316 .370
Away 315 .260 .373 .509 .267 .149 .066 .333 .456
Lg .256 .327 .380 .198 .085 .022 .310 .267
For whatever reason, he just hated that ballpark. But those road numbers are kind of amazing. There were only a half-dozen player seasons in MLB from 2010 to 2014 that had that combination of K rate (.239 to .295) and BB rate (.135 to .163; these are within 1/2 a standard deviation of him, based on the spread of MLB numbers), but there was only one guy who hit the ball as hard. Here's the comp:
Who K% BB% HRC BABIP XB%
Blair .267 .149 .066 .333 .456
Guy X .281 .138 .084 .313 .317
Guy X went almost exactly as deep in the count (but with less good strike zone command), and hit the ball just a tiny bit less hard when you weigh the components (1.24*HRC + .7*BABIP + .1*XB%).
Guy X is Giancarlo Stanton in 2013. Has anyone thought of Blair in terms of being that type of hitter?
I didn't think so. Very interesting guy to watch, and definitely ought to be in the top 60.
There probably is a chance that he gets offered an MLB deal -- but that would essentially burn an option year, versus his re-signing here. Late-blooming potential backup catchers can use all the time available to get to the bigs. So I'm hoping we can talk him into re-signing here, and in a year we'll have a better idea as to what we've got. In the meantime, though, I'm adding him to the possible 40-man roster list.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 13, 2014 7:08:19 GMT -5
I am going to go out on a limb and say that mentioning him in the same breath as Giancarlo Stanton is a little silly. If Blair isn't older than Stanton he's close.
I do think they need to send him to the AFL and they probably will. They could possibly add him to.the 40 man and DFA Dan Butler, but there are already good players on the bubble. You can't let guys like Ramirez, and Celestino go for Carson Blair.
I would still like to hear some first hand reports. Or do I have to go up to Portland myself humph.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 13, 2014 7:15:46 GMT -5
As far as resigning him if he gets a big league deal he's gone. Being on the 40 man as soon as possible increases your chances of playing in the bigs one day.
Though the Red Sox are deep at catcher they did also give him several chances when most orgs would have cut him. Hopefully that helps.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 8:35:01 GMT -5
Because he was a rarely-used backup in 2012-13 (during which time he hit .226/.335/.401), the majority of that production came this year, when he was a 24-year-old repeating Salem for the third consecutive year. As such, we need to take his statistical production with a sizable grain of salt.
The allusion to Stanton (whom Blair is 21 days older than) is, as noted above, kind of frivolous and misleading. Yes, Blair is a three-true-outcomes type hitter who puts a charge into the ball when he makes contact while racking up a lot of Ks and BBs. But a more apt comparison might be George Kottaras, another TTO-type catcher with power (career 14.1% BB, 23.4% K, .198 ISO, 48.4% XBH).
I think there's a good chance he re-signs-- there should be noone blocking him from getting full-time reps in Portland next year, and I have a tough time seeing another team give him a major-league deal considering his age, lack of pedigree, and the fact that he doesn't seem to have a stellar defensive reputation. I don't see the Red Sox protecting him, though he does seem AFL-bound for further evaluation.
I'm most curious how well his defense has progressed in the past few years. If he can be an above-average defensive catcher, he should be able to at least sniff the majors, but if he doesn't, the road will be much tougher.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2014 11:12:23 GMT -5
Because he was a rarely-used backup in 2012-13 (during which time he hit .226/.335/.401), the majority of that production came this year, when he was a 24-year-old repeating Salem for the third consecutive year. As such, we need to take his statistical production with a sizable grain of salt. The allusion to Stanton (whom Blair is 21 days older than) is, as noted above, kind of frivolous and misleading. Yes, Blair is a three-true-outcomes type hitter who puts a charge into the ball when he makes contact while racking up a lot of Ks and BBs. But a more apt comparison might be George Kottaras, another TTO-type catcher with power (career 14.1% BB, 23.4% K, .198 ISO, 48.4% XBH). Thanks for providing the context I purposefully omitted. Given that he's a 24 y/o playing his third straight year in high-A (although the total PA over the three years actually amount to just over a season's worth), he's going to have inflated numbers ... but which MLB player will those inflated numbers most resemble? Seriously, out of 928 player seasons, the answer is one of Stanton's (and there's no decent runner-up). No fudging. It's obviously not any kind of player comp, which is why I said "type" of hitter. The Kottaras comp is interesting, but his career BABIP is so low that it offsets the power completely. That didn't happen to Blair when he was on the road the last three years. HOC, Hardness of Contact, which I just made up, simply weights HRC, BABIP, and XB% by their contribution to wOBA; the average guy with 400+ PA is .288. Who K% BB% HRC BABIP XB% HOC
Blair .267 .149 .066 .333 .456 .359
GK .237 .137 .061 .248 .350 .284 |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 13, 2014 23:36:21 GMT -5
So, making sure I understand this,
1) we're taking only his road splits over three seasons, and only one of which he was a full-time player,
2) and taking out just his walk and strikeout rates,
3) and then comparing those numbers to the major league numbers of players from 2010-2014,
4) to get six guys who were similar
5) so let's also narrow by HRC
6) to get Giancarlo Stanton?
Why are we comparing the A-ball numbers of a player who was a backup for half of that time to major league numbers? I don't see the logic to this at all.
Also, there is zero chance he signs an MLB deal this offseason. Maybe some team will offer him a ST invite, but I don't think that's very likely either.
And a friendly reminder that comments about the rankings should go in the Meta Forum. Thanks all.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 14, 2014 2:47:14 GMT -5
Admittedly I do not know each teams 40 man roster situation. But given the dreck that is out there at the catching position, I would think that at least one team might have a spot for a catcher who.hit well in A ball no matter how old. Unless he really can' t catch of course.
Throw in that he still has a few weeks in AA and likely the AFL to prove himself. I would think there would at least be possible that some team is intetrsted in giving him a 40 man slot if he does well in those forums. There are 1200 of the after all.
I think I get what Eric was trying to say. He's shown signs in the past that he can do what he's doing now. Even a cursory look at his stats shows gradual improvement over time.
I agree dropping Giancarlo Stanton's name to make the point is a little silly. However, I don't think concluding that he's likely to hit decently for Portland assiming good health next year is unreasonable.
A 25 year old catcher who hits well at AA is a nice thing to have.
Also let's remeber that this isn't some guy off the street who signed for a thousand dollars. They gave a sizable bonus to lure him to pro-ball and have given him chance after chance. Someone must have seen something.
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Post by godot on Aug 14, 2014 8:12:20 GMT -5
Some of you guys are missing or misreading what Eric is trying to do. Then again, I may also in a different way. He likes to find pleasant surprises or overlooked players. Blair seems to be one. He is making a case that there may be something there, and may be a player of interest. Don't believe he is trying to predict future success, but saying let's take a better look. As for me, just prefer to watch.
On another note, very impressed with the time Eric and Jmie spend researching and analyzing players and issues. Guys like me just do not have the time or the interest in my case. There are just too many other things I want to study. I like to thank them for doing this work.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2014 15:14:01 GMT -5
So, making sure I understand this, 1) we're taking only his road splits over three seasons, and only one of which he was a full-time player, 2) and taking out just his walk and strikeout rates, 3) and then comparing those numbers to the major league numbers of players from 2010-2014, 4) to get six guys who were similar 5) so let's also narrow by HRC 6) to get Giancarlo Stanton? Why are we comparing the A-ball numbers of a player who was a backup for half of that time to major league numbers? I don't see the logic to this at all. Also, there is zero chance he signs an MLB deal this offseason. Maybe some team will offer him a ST invite, but I don't think that's very likely either. And a friendly reminder that comments about the rankings should go in the Meta Forum. Thanks all. -- I took his road numbers only, because I think there's a huge park affect involved. Always a legitimate thing to do to see if a guy might have upside. Worked with Adrian Beltre a few years ago. Took all three seasons because they all had the same split and I wanted to increase the sample. Presumably, he's gotten better along the way. -- I then got his full component line. K%, BB%, HRC, BABIP, XB%. This is what you do to find out what kind of a hitter a guy is.-- It struck me as pretty damn strange. I couldn't recall a line like that. -- So, what kind of hitter has he been? Well, let's find the recent MLB season most like it, starting with the high K rate, since that's the one negative. Use MLB players, because we have heard of all of them (slightly more useful than identifying him as a Jean Luc Blaquire / Steven Lerud type of guy, don't you think?) Given the high K rate, find the hitter season(s) who most resembles him. I looked for seasons with a similar walk rate, and similar hardness of contact (combining the last three components), since those can trade off from year to year. I had no agenda in mind other than to characterize the style of hitting he's been doing on the road the last three years at Salem. So I could find out what type of hitter he's been. Originally, I made a mistake in the spreadsheet and thought it was Carlos Pena in 2011, then Stanton. I actually typed that up before I discovered my mistake. But it turned out that Stanton's 2013 was the only season that really resembled that line. If I were a GM and had open 40-man space, and my scouts told me he could stay at catcher and receive decently, I'd offer him an MLB deal in a heartbeat, assuming that he'd be getting a lot of interest as an mlfa. He could have a Kelly Shoppach career. "Could" is the operative word. Edit: unspoken in this comp is the fact that 2013 was the year that had people questioning whether Stanton was all that good after all, or whether he could stay healthy. So the one comp is Stanton's off year (!). |
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Post by raftsox on Aug 14, 2014 15:27:21 GMT -5
In general, the SAL is considered a pitcher's league, but that doesn't necessarily play out with every park. Does this effect your numbers/consideration, Eric? Park effects: (sorry for the poor formatting) South Atlantic League: At a Glance Stadium Team R HR H McCormick Field Asheville Tourists 1.376 1.642 1.205 L.P. Frans Stadium Hickory Crawdads 1.142 1.443 1.088 State Mutual Stadium Rome Braves 1.074 0.719 1.048 Appalachian Power Park West Virginia Power 1.069 1.085 1.010 Fluor Field at the West End Greenville Drive 1.039 1.199 1.040 CMC-NorthEast Stadium Kannapolis Intimidators 1.035 0.851 1.003 Municipal Stadium Hagerstown Suns 1.002 1.088 1.006 NewBridge Bank Park Greensboro Grasshoppers 0.952 1.649 1.101 Arthur W. Perdue Stadium Delmarva Shorebirds 0.919 0.718 0.964 Lake Olmstead Stadium Augusta GreenJackets 0.861 0.542 0.939 Joseph P. Riley, Jr. Park Charleston RiverDogs 0.847 0.785 0.910 FirstEnergy Park Lakewood BlueClaws 0.819 0.496 0.910 Grayson Stadium Savannah Sand Gnats 0.795 0.503 0.876 Whitaker Bank Ballpark Lexington Legends 0.648 0.826 0.656 |
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2014 15:46:45 GMT -5
This is a really good, intelligent, discussion, the kind of thing that makes this site so special. I don't know why but Carson has intrigued me since he first was converted to catcher. I would keep him.
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pd
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Post by pd on Aug 14, 2014 17:04:50 GMT -5
I think we're talking SALem in the Carolina league, not the South Atlantic League.
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Post by raftsox on Aug 15, 2014 8:59:18 GMT -5
Ha! I don't know why I made that mistake. Carolina league.
Still similar, not-negative indicators from playing in Salem except for hitting HRs. Wilmington (formerly Sox affiliate) is the place to not be a hitter.
Carolina League (A+) (Click Column Headers To Sort) - Glossary - CSV
Rk Tm PF_R PF_H PF_2B PF_HR
1 Carolina 100 101 104 110
2 Frederick 104 97 90 138
3 Lynchburg 99 102 101 95
4 Myrtle Beach 101 102 96 98
5 Potomac 103 103 104 102
6 Salem 99 101 106 83
7 Wilmington 90 91 94 85
8 Winston-Salem 105 105 106 101
Side question: when calculating eqa is there a level/league adjustment? From a cursory glance it appears that Davenport's equation doesn't consider league adjustment or level.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 15, 2014 10:30:50 GMT -5
Side question: when calculating eqa is there a level/league adjustment? From a cursory glance it appears that Davenport's equation doesn't consider league adjustment or level. Isn't EqA just wOBA times random factor? I tend to mostly ignore it anyway since I refuse to think about BA as if it were a meaningful statistic. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2014 10:53:34 GMT -5
The Carolina League generally has a reputation for suppressing power, with the exception of Frederick, obviously (side note - I always remember this because when Almanzar had his good Salem season in 2012, five of his 12 home runs came at Frederick, three in one series).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2014 16:50:42 GMT -5
Side question: when calculating eqa is there a level/league adjustment? From a cursory glance it appears that Davenport's equation doesn't consider league adjustment or level. Isn't EqA just wOBA times random factor? I tend to mostly ignore it anyway since I refuse to think about BA as if it were a meaningful statistic. EqA / TaV is always park- and league-adjusted, whereas wOBA is not, and hence it's more like wRC+. However, I think EqA deals with GDP's better than wOBA does (normalizing for chances, I think). |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2014 17:14:18 GMT -5
The Carolina League generally has a reputation for suppressing power, with the exception of Frederick, obviously (side note - I always remember this because when Almanzar had his good Salem season in 2012, five of his 12 home runs came at Frederick, three in one series). Holy secretly converging discussions ... the "quick study" of A ball hitters I promised in the Margot thread is ongoing, but I immediately realized that all the data needed to be park- and league-adjusted. I had to grab park multipliers from online, Dan Z's at Baseball Think Factory for 2006-8 and 2010-11, and minor league central's for 2012-13 (I reconstructed the missing single-season 2009 multipliers from the 2010 weighted 3-year multipliers plus the 2010 and 2008 single-season ones). Home run park multipliers in A ball from 2006 to 2013 range from 0.67 (Savannah, 2011) to 1.58 (Greensboro, 2013). Imagine doing any study of minor league hitting and not adjusting for that! What I'm going to try to do, in fact, is to objectively determine the proper weighting for multi-year park factors by seeing which sets of weights maximize the known correlations among hitting components, an idea I've had for a while now. The weights for different components do not have to be the same, and I would argue should not be the same. The year-to-year park factor variation in K and BB rates is probably mostly random. The variation in HR rate factors probably has a large weather component. Hence the weights for a 5 year K rate factor might be 1-1-1.5-1-1, but for HR might by 1-1-4-1-1, or something like that. (Of course, the first step is to click on the web sites of all 30 low-A clubs and find out if their stadiums were newly built or changed in dimension since 2006.) |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2014 20:31:00 GMT -5
Confession: I have no idea what you just said, beyond the basic idea of needing to control for park factors, which I agree is very necessary in the minors.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 15, 2014 21:28:42 GMT -5
So when I originally posted this I was looking for information from people that have seen him play.
I think that it's obvious that he has improved greatly with the stick over the years. I think the statistical analysis also shows he'd be a good pick up in an Eastern League Fantasy League.
But in the end that's not why we're here.
I am curious if he has the bat speed to be a major league backup, how his defense is etc. In short what are the chances that he helps the big club one day?
As far as the Kelly Shoppach comp I don't like that either. Shoppach was stocky and had the classic American catcher's build. That's a big part as to why he was a first round pick and eventually a pretty good backup.
Blair isn't like that. He's more of an athletic catcher in the Swihart mode. I think it's harder for those types to. get chances because they will never lead with their defense and experience which you want from a backup.
Shoppach as an example.when he was 25 had a lot more experience.than Blair had
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