Our American League East Rivals

As someone who lives next to the Tampa Bay area in Bradenton, I have always admired the grit of every player who puts on that Ray’s uniform. Over the last week or so we have been discussing the overall importance of the manager. I truly believe Joe Maddon is worth his (considerable) weight in gold. How he and his coaching staff (especially Jim Hickey) get so much out of their guys is a mystery to me. Year after year they bring in players who are back-up players, middle-relievers, and misfits who all of a sudden perform better. Farnsworth a consistent closer? Rodney somehow obtains consistency and command of all of his pitches? Jason Bartlett plays like an all-star for 2 years? Jeff Keppinger becomes a .320 hitter? Of course their starting rotation is the envy of all of baseball, but somehow they stitch together a line-up ever year that plays with confidence and a bullpen that closes the door. I can’t wait until Longoria, and David Price, price themselves out of St Petersburg.

The Rays free agents this winter are…..

Jose Molina (37) - $1.5MM club option with a $300K buyout
Carlos Pena (35)
Jeff Keppinger (33)
B.J. Upton (28)
Luke Scott (35) - $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
James Shields (31) - $9MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Fernando Rodney (36) - $2.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Kyle Farnsworth (37)
Joel Peralta (37)
J.P. Howell (28)

They will definitely pick up Rodney’s option, and that of James Shields. I would think they will try to resign Keppinger and maybe Peralta and Howell. They have no chance of bringing Upton back, so Desmond Jennings will probably move over to center and, at least, be adequate. Scott, Pena, and Molina were disappointments and will probably not be back. If that is the case, they will need a new 1st baseman, catcher, and DH.

None of their 4 other catchers on their 40-man have shown anything special. It could be a big weakness. They made a big mistake last winter letting Jaso go to Seattle. Third is manned by Evan Longoria, one of the best players in the AL when healthy. Short is a grab-bag. Keppinger could play 2nd, and who knows who will be at first. There are no solid prospects to fill these positions. Ben Zobrist is a really solid player, whether at 2nd or in right-field. Left-field looks to be another hole to fill. Bullpen will probably be above average (as usual).

Which brings us to their ridiculous rotation of…..

Shields, Price, Hellickson, and Matt Moore. Their choices for a #5 are pretty darn good also: Cobb, Archer, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann. This would have to be the area they could be creative and bring in a good bat. Will they? Their front office and Maddon know that their one true strength is their pitching…..especially their rotation. It is a rotation that consistently gets them into the 7th or further. BUT this year REALLY made it evident how poor their offense was. Trade a rotation member like Shields?

We would definitely be a strong player for him, or Price, if they became available. The Rays would probably rather give themselves a lobotomy than let “Big Game” Shields set up home in Boston (or New York).

The Rays are real smart. I would guess this is the year they move someone like Shields for an upgrade offensively. They have decent pitchers to plug in, and understand that eventually they will lose David Price also.

Summary: they badly need a middle-of-the-order bat and will explore the trade market strongly.

Free agents for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2014 and their corresponding age at that time:

Ben Zobrist (33) - $7MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Ben Francisco (32)

Their window is dwindling also as key players are getting too expensive for a cash-strapped organization. Sox could be sitting pretty in 2015, and maybe earlier!

I appreciate the analysis, Steve. Good stuff so far.

Great stuff Steve. I don't know about next year, although it's possible, but certainly the year after. It's amazing what two players (Machado and Bundy) can do to bring legitimacy to an entire team. And by legitimacy I mean they go from possible contenders or potential spoilers to a team that should be feared. They are younger than I realized and look like they are set up well for the next few seasons, especially if Britton puts it all together and Bundy stays on track. As if the MFY and Rays weren't enough to worry about...

Calling it now that the Rays will either get James Loney or Ike Davis for first and possibly Sweeney for the outfield and whichever former sox player they get will turn into Carlos Pena 2.0.

Don't get me wrong, I hate the new CBA, but it MAY actually hurt the high spending Yankees the most. They always love the new baubles, but how in earth can they get to the $189K. You've just got to love the "anchor" formally known as AROD and his $29,000,000 he is paid each year. Even for the Yanks, this is a true albatross for them. It WILL hurt them going forward!

Is anybody else shocked that Lyon is only 33 and Encarnacion is only 30?

One thing about the Orioles that impresses me is how strong they are up the middle. Wieters is outstanding defensively. He eliminates your running game. Hardy is a good shortstop. They have an even better one in the wings Machado. Adam Jones is an outstanding CF. If they can get a decent lh bat to DH. That balances their offense out more. They didn't have a negative run differential. They were plus 7. I think they were around minus 50 at the halfway point. The team that finished the season isn't a fluke. Their pitching came around and look what happened. It wouldn't be an impossibility that their pitching actually improves. It won't make up for their drop in 1 run games that's going to come. It will keep them over .500 though and prob 86-88 wins.

I looked the O's record up at the half-way point. They were 44-37 and -26. Not quite 50 like I said earlier. But, a plus 33 in the 2nd half is good. If Dylan Bundy develops into a Verlander or Strasburg like pitcher. They will really be really tough. They might have 5 cornerstone players; Jones - CF, Machado - SS, Wieters - C, Markakis - RF and Davis - 1b. The others should be pretty easy to fill. LF, 3B and 2b. As always, the key will be how their young arms develop.

The key with the Yankees is the luxury threshold. If they don't go over it. I don't know what the heck they're going to do. Can't buy A-Rod out. The amount of his salary you pay still counts against you. They'll lose Swisher this year. Granderson after next season. Have a diminishing A-Rod at 3b. What's the deal with Teixeira? He's become an all or nothing hitter. I don't remember him being that. A switch-hitting Mark Reynolds who makes 23m per year. Is Jeter capable of playing up to his 2012 season again?

Great article about the poor direction and state of the Yankees' farm system in the NY Daily News by Madden.

www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/madden-yanks-younger-tougher-article-1.1188461

Thanks for the excellent overview.

I mentioned a few years back, after they'd ripped off the Mariners by getting Jones and Tillman for Eric Bedard, that the Orioles were on their way and so they are. They've only cemented that with Machado and Bundy. Going forward, I think they're the real competition in the AL East. This year may have been built around a bit of luck, but I think they're for real.

It's all about young talented pitchers and they have a few of them. The Sox, with Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, as well as Owens, Workman, Britton... seem, at the very least, to have gotten the memo.

This quote from Madden's piece on the Yankees I found interesting:

...this Yankee team, bloated with age and salary, and heading in the same downward spiral as the arch-rival Red Sox.

Left unsaid is that the Sox seem to have reversed themselves in Internet time thanks to the Punto trade. Entirely possible that next year, at some point, we'll see a lineup that includes Lavarnaway, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, Sands, Brentz, and Bradley along with, say, De La Rosa on the rubber. While that may not get them into the playoffs just yet, I think it will get them a long way down the road to that and more.

NYs future looks a little more foreboding. I haven't a clue how they can get get rid of the Rod. Even if they did they'd probably still have to carry the bulk of his salary.

To me Toronto is a continuing enigma (they should be better than they are), and Tampa Bay the joker in the deck (they are always better than they seem to be).

Again, thanks for all the work.