Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2014 2:00:42 GMT -5
Folks might want to open up a browser tab and take a look at the hittings rankings.
I'll discuss the nine guys who have a difference of 5 or more spots in these rankings versus SP's, starting with the biggest disagreements. I think there are only four guys who are seriously mis-ranked, though: two over-rated and two under-rated.
Nick Longhi. 10th by SP (of these players), 41st objectively. His .249 hitting number is crippled by his terrible 2013, which counts for 21% of that. And he's been a terrible outfielder who would actually gain .008 if he were an average 1B instead, which seems a reasonable credit to grant ... do that, and ignore 2013 and he's still just ranked 16th, and that's based on a tiny sample which doesn't even include a pro HR. He's got a nice pedigree, but there are 17 guys who have outperformed him objectively and have a better one. He's sweet to dream on, but 20 overall is "irrational exuberance." I think he's more in the 40 range, at a first guess.
Keury De La Cruz. 19th by SP, 31st objectively. But his huge platoon split and insanely hot finish boost him quite a bit and warrant a continued spot on the top 60, I think. But I'm not sure 51 will be justifiable.
Carson Blair. Presumed 21 by SP, 10th objectively. As noted elsewhere, according to Davenport he was the best hitting catcher in high-A even after adjusting for age, and then was even better in AA. philbosoxfan says he's worse than his defensive number, and his SS is small, but even with those caveats I think he has to be in the top 30.
Carlos Asuaje. 16th by SP, 5th objectively. Davenport says that Asuaje had the third best hitting season in the system, behind two other 2B, Betts and Coyle. He was better at Salem than Greenville (.302 versus .289). His makeup appears to be tremendous. To rank him 39 you have to discount his performance hugely for being old for his level, but the numbers tell us that's not so (and they don't always -- back when SP briefly had Chester in the top 60, the same methodology said that was crazy). He clearly ranks behind Coyle, Margot, and Marrero (all of whom kill him on pedigree) despite the numbers, but I think that either him or Rijo comes next, and then the other, and that's a great debate to have. And that's going to put him something like 19 or 20 (before Betts and Vazquez graduate), especially considering ...
Sam Travis, 8th by SP, 18th objectively. He didn't put up numbers that project as an above-average 1B. While he got off to a slow start at Lowell, his Greenville peak number was almost the same (.253 versus .260 at Lowell), suggesting it was not a chunk of PT that should be excised, the way Mookie's slow start last year clearly was. Basically, Sam Travis is Aaron Bates cake with a bit of whipped cream added. And Bates was ranked 25th. 25 to 30 is probably where Travis belongs.
Henry Ramos, 13th by SP, 23 objectively. I buy that his improvement is for real, and that arguably puts him up where you have him.
Reid Gragnani, 20th by SP, 12th objectively. His SS is small, but not that small. You could argue that he deserves to be ahead of Dubon and Ockimey and maybe KDLC, too, but you could certainly see him staying where he is. Note that the Davenport system has already asked whether he can sustain his OBP without any power and comes up with a .379 OBP and .379 SA at his MLB peak.
Mike Miller, presumed 22 by SP, 16th objectively. You once had him in the end of the top 60 and that might be where he belongs; I'll have to think it through.
Maurico Dubon, 18th by SP, 24th objectively. The scouting reports are swell, and if you ignore last year and boost his defense, you get him in the neighborhood of where you have him. Still, you could justify dropping him among the group of position players competing for 50-60 (including Ockimey, KDLC, Yoan Aybar, and Derrik Gibson, whom I'd put ahead of Miller and maybe Dubon, because I think his improvement is for real).
I'll discuss the nine guys who have a difference of 5 or more spots in these rankings versus SP's, starting with the biggest disagreements. I think there are only four guys who are seriously mis-ranked, though: two over-rated and two under-rated.
Nick Longhi. 10th by SP (of these players), 41st objectively. His .249 hitting number is crippled by his terrible 2013, which counts for 21% of that. And he's been a terrible outfielder who would actually gain .008 if he were an average 1B instead, which seems a reasonable credit to grant ... do that, and ignore 2013 and he's still just ranked 16th, and that's based on a tiny sample which doesn't even include a pro HR. He's got a nice pedigree, but there are 17 guys who have outperformed him objectively and have a better one. He's sweet to dream on, but 20 overall is "irrational exuberance." I think he's more in the 40 range, at a first guess.
Keury De La Cruz. 19th by SP, 31st objectively. But his huge platoon split and insanely hot finish boost him quite a bit and warrant a continued spot on the top 60, I think. But I'm not sure 51 will be justifiable.
Carson Blair. Presumed 21 by SP, 10th objectively. As noted elsewhere, according to Davenport he was the best hitting catcher in high-A even after adjusting for age, and then was even better in AA. philbosoxfan says he's worse than his defensive number, and his SS is small, but even with those caveats I think he has to be in the top 30.
Carlos Asuaje. 16th by SP, 5th objectively. Davenport says that Asuaje had the third best hitting season in the system, behind two other 2B, Betts and Coyle. He was better at Salem than Greenville (.302 versus .289). His makeup appears to be tremendous. To rank him 39 you have to discount his performance hugely for being old for his level, but the numbers tell us that's not so (and they don't always -- back when SP briefly had Chester in the top 60, the same methodology said that was crazy). He clearly ranks behind Coyle, Margot, and Marrero (all of whom kill him on pedigree) despite the numbers, but I think that either him or Rijo comes next, and then the other, and that's a great debate to have. And that's going to put him something like 19 or 20 (before Betts and Vazquez graduate), especially considering ...
Sam Travis, 8th by SP, 18th objectively. He didn't put up numbers that project as an above-average 1B. While he got off to a slow start at Lowell, his Greenville peak number was almost the same (.253 versus .260 at Lowell), suggesting it was not a chunk of PT that should be excised, the way Mookie's slow start last year clearly was. Basically, Sam Travis is Aaron Bates cake with a bit of whipped cream added. And Bates was ranked 25th. 25 to 30 is probably where Travis belongs.
Henry Ramos, 13th by SP, 23 objectively. I buy that his improvement is for real, and that arguably puts him up where you have him.
Reid Gragnani, 20th by SP, 12th objectively. His SS is small, but not that small. You could argue that he deserves to be ahead of Dubon and Ockimey and maybe KDLC, too, but you could certainly see him staying where he is. Note that the Davenport system has already asked whether he can sustain his OBP without any power and comes up with a .379 OBP and .379 SA at his MLB peak.
Mike Miller, presumed 22 by SP, 16th objectively. You once had him in the end of the top 60 and that might be where he belongs; I'll have to think it through.
Maurico Dubon, 18th by SP, 24th objectively. The scouting reports are swell, and if you ignore last year and boost his defense, you get him in the neighborhood of where you have him. Still, you could justify dropping him among the group of position players competing for 50-60 (including Ockimey, KDLC, Yoan Aybar, and Derrik Gibson, whom I'd put ahead of Miller and maybe Dubon, because I think his improvement is for real).
