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Post by brnichols19873 on Jul 15, 2015 0:18:12 GMT -5
Raw power is not the same as game power. He's giving him a 30 on game power and saying he has average raw that his swing and profile won't allow him to tap into. Also, this wouldn't be the first time two different scouts had a difference of opinion on a player they've seen only a few times. It's not like either has sat on him for a month or something. Sorry to repeat myself, but this REALLY does feel a lot like when Cecchini stole 50 bags in Greenville and everyone was like "how can you say he's not going to steal bases when he stole 50!!!" I'm not coming down either way on this, but I'm just saying it's not crazy to think that his power won't play in the majors to the degree it has been in Low A. EDIT: Another example I just thought of is Carlos Asuaje, who we pretty much literally went through this with last year. Had 11 at this point and went up to Salem. Hit 4 in half a season there and has 4 in Portland this year. Yes, different age advancement profile, but the point is that you can hit home runs in A ball and not project to do that in the majors. It appears that the BP scout camp was rather libral with his use of the 30 grades which is universally recognized as "well below average" now some of that can be explained and away by the fact that the scout only saw him for two games less than 4 weeks into the season and to this end I have to believe that Guerra's power is closer to the 45 future grade given by McDaniel in his preseason fangraphs writeup of sox prospects in which he wrote, "There could be 10-15 homer power down the road and he has some bat speed and feel to hit; right now the offensive upside is higher than Marrero, a similar prospect." www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-boston-red-sox/As the following charts taken from a recent fangraphs article on scouts grades show a 10-15 hr power correlates to a 40-45 grade... Power ISO Player 80 0.294 Jose Bautista 70 0.242 Joey Votto 60 0.191 Buster Posey 50 0.140 Nick Markakis 40 0.089 Ryan Hanigan 30 0.038 Ramiro Pena 20 -0.013 - Grade Tool Called Homers 80 80 40+ 75 35-40 70 Plus-Plus 30-35 65 27-30 60 Plus 23-27 55 Above-Avg 19-22 50 Avg 15-18 45 Below-Avg 12-15 40 8-12 35 5-8 30 Well-Below-Avg 3-5 Now for your take that Guera somehow relates to Carlos asuage I couldn't disagree more as the only point of comparison is that they both hit homers in A ball but beyond that the argument lacks merit. Consider that Carlos was performing in his 5th post high school season (3 college and 1 Lowell) in addition to a summer in the cape league all of which produced a great deal of batting data against relative competition yet he was unable to produce more than 5 home runs in any previous season or summer circuit. Therefore, given his lack of home run power coupled with advanced age and experience relative to his comp in A last season where he was 22 it seems logical to assume that his power surge was a mirage spurred on by these aforementioned factors. In contrast, with Guerra outside of a year in rookie ball we have no data to show that the power is a stastical abberation given past performance and could easily be due to regular maturation and progression.... Look no one is asking for a 60 or even 50+ future power grade but a 40 or 45 seems reasonable given his recent power numbers this season, this projects him as a below average but still respectible hitter in the power department...asking for a 60+ would be comparable to the demands for an increase in cechinni's run/speed grades as it wasn't like that skill was rated even close to as low as Guerra's power...
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 15, 2015 6:28:38 GMT -5
Sorry to repeat myself, but this REALLY does feel a lot like when Cecchini stole 50 bags in Greenville and everyone was like "how can you say he's not going to steal bases when he stole 50!!!" It's more like disagreeing with some scout who put a 30 on Cecchini's baserunning after stealing 50 bags. Stealing 50 bases at that level indicates he's probably a very smart and opportunistic base runner at the minimum. A lot of players do that in lower levels. There probably aren't a lot of skinny short age advanced players with a .205 ISO at low A that turn out to have NO power at all. A 30 is about as rare as a 70 for a legit prospect.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jul 15, 2015 15:40:23 GMT -5
Maybe, but he won't be getting nearly as many mistake pitches as he goes up the ladder either. He could be hitting a ton of HR's of mistakes. The coming scouting reports from Chris and Ian will help. I really look forward to their reports!
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jul 15, 2015 17:25:49 GMT -5
It appears scouts/evaluators are taking note of Guerra's breakout to date as this mlb.com article published this morning states that he has made the largest jump of any shortstop prospect in the minors... Stock Watch: First-Half All-Risers team "Midseason prospect lists are rolling out across the internet, and with the baseball world taking a collective deep breath this week in preparation for the second half, it seems like a good time to reflect back on the season to date. With that in mind, here's a rundown of the players who have done the most to move the needle on their prospect stock this season. Note that this isn't a list of top prospects at each position, but rather, players listed have made the biggest jump from the start of the season." SHORTSTOP Javier Guerra, Boston Red Sox, Class A Greenville "Evaluators knew Guerra could play shortstop coming into the year. The real question regarding the 19-year-old Panamanian was how well he could hit. The Drive are loaded with talented bats this season, and Guerra has kept pace with all of them, hitting .298 with an .853 OPS. The biggest surprise has been his power. Guerra is listed at 155 pounds, although Greenville manager Darren Fenster told MiLB.com he's likely heavier and stronger than that now. The power numbers back Fenster's claim, since Guerra leads the team with 11 home runs in 70 games. Guerra could be an average hitter with average pop and outstanding defense at shortstop, which would make him a perennial All-Star up the middle. A number of shortstops have taken massive steps forward this year -- Orlando Arcia and Ruddy Giron particularly stand out among the honorable mentions -- but Guerra's rise from back-end Top 20 Red Sox prospect to Top 100 candidate gets the nod for the biggest jump." link: m.milb.com/news/article/20150715136683552/stock_watch_first-half_all-risers_team**Most important things I took was that he is heavier/stronger than that 155 listing!!!
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Post by charliezink16 on Jul 17, 2015 19:39:47 GMT -5
@kileymcd: Posted video of my 2015 looks at Red Sox SS Javier Guerra. ++ glove & his bonkers defensive play is the 1st clip t.co/5wIcMTXemQ
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 18, 2015 16:31:10 GMT -5
@kileymcd: Posted video of my 2015 looks at Red Sox SS Javier Guerra. ++ glove & his bonkers defensive play is the 1st clip t.co/5wIcMTXemQHe tucks his head into his shoulder like Coco Crisp in game.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 2, 2015 9:00:18 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing. As he progresses, Javier he will see less of the fastballs inside from RHP that he has feasted on, and the cluster of pitches he sees will gradually migrate towards low-and-away. All the scouting reports seem to suggest he has a short, line drive swing and is capable of spraying the ball. So is it all about pitch recognition for Guerra?
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