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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 26, 2014 11:25:34 GMT -5
Curious how Margot is ahead of Devers. Is it because he is presumably closer to being MLB ready?
One other thing gentlemen that has always piqued my brain.. How bonus people can jump onto the top prospects list on supposed talent alone. Please, not disputing this at all and I understand that. Devers proves that point, as some do. Does being overly aggressive with the 2 recent 16YO however seem possible because of Devers recent success? Would they have been ranked so high had Devers not produced so well as a 17YO.
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Post by jmei on Sept 26, 2014 12:01:43 GMT -5
Not speaking for Mike, but I have Margot ahead of Devers, and it's not particularly close. Margot is two levels ahead of Devers. He also projects to be a plus baserunner and defender at a premium position, while Devers will likely have to move to 1B.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 26, 2014 12:10:18 GMT -5
Not speaking for Mike, but I have Margot ahead of Devers, and it's not particularly close. Margot is two levels ahead of Devers. He also projects to be a plus baserunner and defender at a premium position, while Devers will likely have to move to 1B. I have questions (as you can see) with regards to initial rankings of very young teenagers and it wasn't just for Mike JMEI, however don't want to pollute a thread if if that is not what this one is for here. Thanks for explanation of Margot/Devers. Was under the assumption this was a rare case the site had a kid higher solely because he was closer to helping the big league club as mentioned. |
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Post by jmei on Sept 26, 2014 12:22:29 GMT -5
This is a fine enough place to discuss any of the above issues.
I understand ranking 16-year-olds who got huge bonuses as high as they are (in the late 20s/early 30s). Espinosa and Acosta both got $1.5m+ bonuses, which is about equivalent to a late-first-round draft pick. Now I know IFA pool spending and Rule 4 draft pool spending aren't equivalent for a whole host of reasons, but the IFA pool is also capped, and giving those two that amount of money strongly suggests that they're legit prospects, even if they're still high-risk teenagers. That risk factor is accounted for by ranking them around 30 while Kopech (a guy who also got a $1.5m bonus) is 14th.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 26, 2014 12:42:09 GMT -5
This is a fine enough place to discuss any of the above issues. I understand ranking 16-year-olds who got huge bonuses as high as they are (in the late 20s/early 30s). Espinosa and Acosta both got $1.5m+ bonuses, which is about equivalent to a late-first-round draft pick. Now I know IFA pool spending and Rule 4 draft pool spending aren't equivalent for a whole host of reasons, but the IFA pool is also capped, and giving those two that amount of money strongly suggests that they're legit prospects, even if they're still high-risk teenagers. That risk factor is accounted for by ranking them around 30 while Kopech (a guy who also got a $1.5m bonus) is 14th. Gotcha.. It's just I rate kids different.. Rule 4 players have been scouted/watched for years.. Most IFA for 2-3 tops. It's just me JMEI. was seeing it differently. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 26, 2014 14:27:56 GMT -5
I broke this out into its own discussion. I like the concept. (Although, it was appropriate for johnsilver to be posting in the Talk like a Pirate Day-themed rankings week thread, in hindsight...)
I think you make a great point of "how the hell can you even rank these guys?" Problem is, we kinda have to. With Espinoza and Chris Acosta, for example, we were getting asked constantly when we were ranking them. And it's a crapshoot, for sure. But the thing is, we can't just rank a guy super low because WE haven't seen them or because they're young, so we take a stab in the dark, knowing there's a ton of risk but a ton of upside. In the case of these two, consider that the club was willing to cap its international signings at $300k next year just to be able to sign both of them. That's a big statement, imo.
By the way, as for Margot/Devers, as I'll write next week, I've basically got them, Rodriguez, and Johnson in the same strata, and could rank them in nearly any combination from 3 to 6. Clear 1. Clear-ish but closer 2, and then those four in some order probably depending on what I had for breakfast.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 10, 2014 23:34:42 GMT -5
Don't know where to put this but a big shout out to SP and its ranking procedures.
I rarely listen to Boston Sports radio, as I have XM Sirius and MLB station, but I wanted to get the local spin in the developments today.
On WEEI, the host, Arnold, said "sox prospects.com is a great website, I use it all the time". He mentioned the players ranked by this site and the thoughtful analysis that goes into it. I was proud to call myself a member.
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