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2014-15 Offseason Non-Sox thread
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Post by jmei on Jan 15, 2015 13:36:10 GMT -5
But even if that's true, why exactly do they want Evan Gattis? I think Gattis had gotten a little underrated because folks kept criticizing his weaknesses while ignoring his strengths. Pre-arb above-average hitters are super valuable, even at 1B/DH/LF. Plus, I think he's an OK enough defender behind the plate that you could have him catch a game or two a week. He'll never be a star, but a cost-controlled poor man's Mike Trumbo or Mike Napoli is still a good get if you don't think you're giving up much in return. |
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 15, 2015 14:09:46 GMT -5
But even if that's true, why exactly do they want Evan Gattis? I think Gattis had gotten a little underrated because folks kept criticizing his weaknesses while ignoring his strengths. Pre-arb above-average hitters are super valuable, even at 1B/DH/LF. Plus, I think he's an OK enough defender behind the plate that you could have him catch a game or two a week. He'll never be a star, but a cost-controlled poor man's Mike Trumbo or Mike Napoli is still a good get if you don't think you're giving up much in return. I don't think that's accurate at all -- Gattis has a 2013/2014/2015(steamer) wRc+ string of 109, 125, and 110. Trumpo is at 107, 91, 108, and he's an awful outfielder and alright first baseman, while Gattis is an awful outfielder and not-quite-awful catcher. Gattis has a 2 fWAR advantage the last two seasons and a lower career K%, and makes a fraction of Trumbo's (albeit not very high) salary. And, of course, Trumbo has no business being looped in with Mike Napoli's class. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 15, 2015 17:05:55 GMT -5
MLBTR projects Clippard for $9.3m in arb, which is not really any lower than the AAV he'd get as a free agent (though getting him on a one-year deal means his contract as a whole still has surplus value). He's way better than Johnson, but the As gave up a lot more. Oakland has Doolittle signed to a super-cheap contract, so they don't need a closer, and Clippard is very unlikely to be good enough to receive a QO next year. Getting Semien playing time is great, but they should have been able to get a better return for Escobar considering he's really the only starter-level SS on the market and a bunch of teams would like upgrades at the position (Mets, Padres, etc.) or at 2B (Blue Jays, White Sox, Angels, etc). The trade probably makes the As a better team, but I think they could have gotten more of a return for a very useful player in Escobar. The Mets probably could've used an upgrade and who knows what the Padres are doing, but there aren't really a ton of teams that need a shortstop right now. There are probably a half-dozen teams that really needed a starter. And for whatever it's worth, Escobar's propensity for controversy might have scared off a couple teams, particularly the Mets who tend to be overly concerned with that sort of thing. .... Gattis can probably slug .500 down at Enron. He's also not even arbitration eligible for another year. He's cheap, established power and that's really tough to find right now. The Astros gave up more than I probably would have, but I understand why they focused on him. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 15, 2015 18:04:09 GMT -5
MINUTE MAID!!!! Gosh James you can't mention the smartest crooks in the room in greater Houston.
I think they could have gotten a better player to do the same job with the same package. Besides, they already have guys who can hit the ball out of the park. What they need is people on base when they hit them.
He can't hit righties, can't field and can't run. He's essentially Johnny Gomes without the walks, how does that help the Astros?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 19:05:23 GMT -5
Surprise statement by Dombrowski: Sporting News MLB ?@sn_Baseball 33m33 minutes ago Max Scherzer rumors: Tigers GM says it’s unlikely they re-sign ace dlvr.it/86pJ0Q |
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TX
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Post by TX on Jan 15, 2015 19:19:01 GMT -5
Billy keeps plugging along... Just dealt Yunel Escobar to the Nationals. (Source: Jon Heyman) MLBTR says it's for Tyler Clippard. That's an interesting move. I like it for Oakland. I don't hate it for Washington either. Clears WASH for that Desmond/Zimmermann/Cole for Xander trade everyone is talking about. And with 'everyone' I mean me  But of course that can't happen because Drew's now off the market. Back to Hamels as our opening day starter. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 19:22:00 GMT -5
MLBTR says it's for Tyler Clippard. That's an interesting move. I like it for Oakland. I don't hate it for Washington either. Clears WASH for that Simmons/Zimmermann/Cole for Xander trade everyone is talking about. And with 'everyone' I mean me But of course that can't happen because Drew's now off the market. Back to Hamels as our opening day starter. Actually it clears the way for the Nats to trade Desmond who's also a one year rental. |
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 15, 2015 19:27:39 GMT -5
MINUTE MAID!!!! Gosh James you can't mention the smartest crooks in the room in greater Houston. I think they could have gotten a better player to do the same job with the same package. Besides, they already have guys who can hit the ball out of the park. What they need is people on base when they hit them. He can't hit righties, can't field and can't run. He's essentially Johnny Gomes without the walks, how does that help the Astros? wRC+ vs. RHP: 2013: 107 2014: 115 wRC+ vs. LHP: 2013: 115 2014: 117 Gomes put up a 40 wRC+ vs RHP in 2014 and is at 91 in his career. He's also exclusively an awful defensive outfielder, while Gattis appears to be at least an average framing catcher who otherwise probably is below average at the other facets of receiving. Going from Atlanta to Minute Maid is a boost for anyone, let alone a power RHH with a spray chart like this. Rotate him between catcher, DH, and left field - and it's notable that a) Minute Maid's left field is super small and b) the other main left fielder figures to be Chris Carter, who is potentially even worse than Gattis out there - and it's not hard to see Gattis being a nice contribute to a lineup that may surprise some people. I mean, hey, Steamer projects 7 of their 8 regulars to post a 104 or greater wRC+ (with Matt Dominguez, of course, being the odd man out). |
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jan 15, 2015 19:35:37 GMT -5
Ouch; fixed
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2015 21:35:25 GMT -5
MINUTE MAID!!!! Gosh James you can't mention the smartest crooks in the room in greater Houston. I think they could have gotten a better player to do the same job with the same package. Besides, they already have guys who can hit the ball out of the park. What they need is people on base when they hit them. He can't hit righties, can't field and can't run. He's essentially Johnny Gomes without the walks, how does that help the Astros? wRC+ vs. RHP: 2013: 107 2014: 115 wRC+ vs. LHP: 2013: 115 2014: 117 Gomes put up a 40 wRC+ vs RHP in 2014 and is at 91 in his career. He's also exclusively an awful defensive outfielder, while Gattis appears to be at least an average framing catcher who otherwise probably is below average at the other facets of receiving. Going from Atlanta to Minute Maid is a boost for anyone, let alone a power RHH with a spray chart like this. Rotate him between catcher, DH, and left field - and it's notable that a) Minute Maid's left field is super small and b) the other main left fielder figures to be Chris Carter, who is potentially even worse than Gattis out there - and it's not hard to see Gattis being a nice contribute to a lineup that may surprise some people. I mean, hey, Steamer projects 7 of their 8 regulars to post a 104 or greater wRC+ (with Matt Dominguez, of course, being the odd man out). Look at how awful Saltalamachia was at framing. Wow. And that agrees with my memory of watching him. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 15, 2015 21:54:06 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Saltalamacchia rated pretty decently as far as pitching framing when he was with the Red Sox. Though, like many tall catchers who aren't Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer, it's hard to say he looks graceful back there.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 22:46:26 GMT -5
Jim Callis ?@jimcallismlb 10m10 minutes ago Like it for @braves, not for @astros. @apocalypseyao: What were your thoughts on the Gattis trade in general? . . . For those so inclined, MLBTradeRumore arbitration tracker: www.mlbtraderumors.com/arbtracker2015 |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 16, 2015 15:05:42 GMT -5
Can't use RC+ with splits ......... .244/.308/.450 = bench player 40% of swings versus righthanded breaking stuff were misses.
I don't know about that.
First off he was awful versus power pitchers and he'll likely be facing more of those in the AL. Secondly, Gattis did most of his damage versus fastballs. In Minute Maid pitchers who don't have plus fastballs that he can binge on, maybe less likely to challenge him.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 16, 2015 17:39:21 GMT -5
David Price gets $19.75 million out of the Tigers in his last year of arbitration.
I wonder how Tom Yawkey would have liked the arbitration system?
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 16, 2015 20:15:38 GMT -5
Can't use RC+ with splits ......... .244/.308/.450 = bench player 40% of swings versus righthanded breaking stuff were misses.I don't know about that. First off he was awful versus power pitchers and he'll likely be facing more of those in the AL. Secondly, Gattis did most of his damage versus fastballs. In Minute Maid pitchers who don't have plus fastballs that he can binge on, maybe less likely to challenge him. Why not? And we can use other metrics to demonstrate that he's still perfectly capable against RHP: 2013: 108 sOPS+, .249 BABIP (.270 vs LHP), .326 wOBA 2014: 119 sOPS+, .273 BABIP (.404 vs LHP), .337 wOBA I'll add that the 2013 and 2014 MLB average wOBA's, facing either handedness, from a #5 hitter were .324 and .322, respectively. The overall average wOBA's from left fielders those years were .317 and .318. So Gattis has been an above league-average hitter against right-handers, and even remains above average if you filter just to left fielders. His defense will subtract from his overall value, but, of course, he's very good against southpaws, ranking 56th out of 375 players in wOBA over the last two seasons (min. 100 PA). Among outfielders, he'd be 22/157, just a tick behind Puig. Total package considered, he's not a fantastic option to start against RHP's, but I don't see how you can flatly state that he should be a bench player against them. |
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jan 17, 2015 19:57:10 GMT -5
26 yo WMB traded for a backup catcher, 28 yo Gattis traded for something. Both players pretty comparable.
Stew on that for a moment, folks.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 17, 2015 20:08:38 GMT -5
Over the last two seasons:
Evan Gattis: .253/.304/.487
Will Middlebrooks: .213/.265/.364
So, at least offensively, the difference between Gattis and Middlebrooks would be the same as between Gattis and someone hitting .293/.343/.610.
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Post by jmei on Jan 17, 2015 20:12:30 GMT -5
26 yo WMB traded for a backup catcher, 28 yo Gattis traded for something. Both players pretty comparable. Stew on that for a moment, folks. They're comparable in the same way that Carlos Gomez and B.J. Upton are comparable. They have a vaguely similar basic profile, but one has just been a lot better than the other. |
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jan 17, 2015 20:16:24 GMT -5
Sure, yesterday. But WMB was a quality fielder where Gattis never was, and neither has developed a clue re: ML pitching, although Gattis has a 2 year headstart. I don't agree.
Edit: I posted that before looking at your comparison link. Comparable, I'd rather the prospects.
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Post by jmei on Jan 17, 2015 20:29:19 GMT -5
I sure wouldn't call Gattis someone who has not "developed a clue re: ML pitching." Over the last two years, he's been basically as good a hitter as Adam Jones and better than Jason Heyward, Pablo Sandoval and Alex Gordon. You're really underrating his bat.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 17, 2015 20:40:34 GMT -5
I think the Astros overpaid significantly for him, but this idea that Gattis can't hit is just absolutely bonkers. Over the last two years he has a .234 isolated slugging! Among the 234 (oooh, symmetry) players with 700 plate appearances over that time, his is the 14th highest. Sure, among the top-20, he has the second lowest OBP and he's not much of a defensive player. But there's a big line between being a flawed, useful player like Gattis and being arguably baseball's worst player over that time like Middlebrooks.
Edit: I will, perhaps, illustrate this more clearly. There are 310 players with 500 plate appearances since the start of the 2013 season. Using fangraphs version of WAR (which is easier to sort over multiple years, forgive my laziness), Gattis has been tied for the 149th-best player, while Middlebrooks is sitting at #290. Not close.
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jan 17, 2015 21:01:48 GMT -5
I sure wouldn't call Gattis someone who has not "developed a clue re: ML pitching." Over the last two years, he's been basically as good a hitter as Adam Jones and better than Jason Heyward, Pablo Sandoval and Alex Gordon. You're really underrating his bat. like WMB so far, he strikes out far too often and doesn't like the walk. Actually, the only difference between him and WMB, besides his seeking a position to play, is with his very brief indoctrination to MLB going over more successfully than WMB's, albeit without injury. I think you're just arguing if you think the difference between these two players is the actual take of their respective GM's. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 17, 2015 21:05:35 GMT -5
I think you're just arguing if you think the difference between these two players is the actual take of their respective GM's. Seriously? Gattis's "respective GM" just traded the farm for him. But jmei is the one who is "just arguing?" Come on. |
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jan 17, 2015 21:07:04 GMT -5
I obviously meant ATL. Come on.
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Post by jmei on Jan 17, 2015 21:33:52 GMT -5
I sure wouldn't call Gattis someone who has not "developed a clue re: ML pitching." Over the last two years, he's been basically as good a hitter as Adam Jones and better than Jason Heyward, Pablo Sandoval and Alex Gordon. You're really underrating his bat. like WMB so far, he strikes out far too often and doesn't like the walk. Actually, the only difference between him and WMB, besides his seeking a position to play, is with his very brief indoctrination to MLB going over more successfully than WMB's, albeit without injury. I think you're just arguing if you think the difference between these two players is the actual take of their respective GM's. After 200+ major league games (hardly "very brief"), we can evaluate these players on a more granular level than just saying "strikes out a lot, doesn't walk much, has power." Gattis has struck out less (22.7% vs. 26.6%) and hit for a lot more game power (.234 ISO vs. .173 ISO) than Middlebrooks has. He's just been a lot better in a pretty sizable major league sample, and that's not to mention that Middlebrooks' best season was in 2012 while Gattis' best was last year. |
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