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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2016 3:04:12 GMT -5
Still. 103 mph. Sitting 97-100. Good lord, that's heat. Syndergaard, version 2.0.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 10, 2016 6:00:57 GMT -5
I like Kopech too but you have to give to get, especially to get a controllable arm like Pomerantz.
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Post by jmei on Jul 10, 2016 9:06:50 GMT -5
Still. 103 mph. Sitting 97-100. Good lord, that's heat. Syndergaard, version 2.0. No offense, but if you find a GM who thinks Kopech is Syndergaard 2.0 and is willing to give up a ton of present value for him, you trade Kopech to that team immediately. He's a good prospect, but throwing hard alone does not make you an ace, and is enough uncertainty (command, secondaries, consistency, makeup, general development and health risk) that I'm comfortable moving him in the right trade. I'm not sure Pomeranz is that trade (I think he's a little smoke-and-mirrors, but I also thought that about Rich Hill, and they're very similar pitchers), though.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 10, 2016 10:23:00 GMT -5
Still. 103 mph. Sitting 97-100. Good lord, that's heat. Syndergaard, version 2.0. No offense, but if you find a GM who thinks Kopech is Syndergaard 2.0 and is willing to give up a ton of present value for him, you trade Kopech to that team immediately. He's a good prospect, but throwing hard alone does not make you an ace, and is enough uncertainty (command, secondaries, consistency, makeup, general development and health risk) that I'm comfortable moving him in the right trade. I'm not sure Pomeranz is that trade (I think he's a little smoke-and-mirrors, but I also thought that about Rich Hill, and they're very similar pitchers), though. Not to imply that Kopech is indeed Syndergaard 2.0, but didn't he also have command/control question marks when the Jays dealt him for Dickey? He wasn't even necessarily the headliner in that deal- Travis d'Arnaud was highly ranked at the time too. Just looking at the scouting profile on this site for Kopech shows him with a 70 grade fastball (80 if 103 is real), a potential wipeout slider, average change and solid-average curve. I'd be trying to hold on to him unless we're acquiring a real difference maker, ideally in the longer run, preferably not auctioning him off for a #3-4 guy this year
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Jul 10, 2016 10:23:59 GMT -5
I'd give up Kopech in a deal for Pomerantz. Maybe I'm alone in thinking this. Nope, you are not alone. I'd do it in a heartbeat. But you would still have to add a few pieces along with him to get Pomeranz.
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Post by jmei on Jul 10, 2016 11:21:55 GMT -5
No offense, but if you find a GM who thinks Kopech is Syndergaard 2.0 and is willing to give up a ton of present value for him, you trade Kopech to that team immediately. He's a good prospect, but throwing hard alone does not make you an ace, and is enough uncertainty (command, secondaries, consistency, makeup, general development and health risk) that I'm comfortable moving him in the right trade. I'm not sure Pomeranz is that trade (I think he's a little smoke-and-mirrors, but I also thought that about Rich Hill, and they're very similar pitchers), though. Not to imply that Kopech is indeed Syndergaard 2.0, but didn't he also have command/control question marks when the Jays dealt him for Dickey? He wasn't even necessarily the headliner in that deal- Travis d'Arnaud was highly ranked at the time too. Just looking at the scouting profile on this site for Kopech shows him with a 70 grade fastball (80 if 103 is real), a potential wipeout slider, average change and solid-average curve. I'd be trying to hold on to him unless we're acquiring a real difference maker, ideally in the longer run, preferably not auctioning him off for a #3-4 guy this year Not every hard-throwing prospect with command issues improves their command enough to be an elite starting pitcher. The vast majority don't. See, e.g., Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, etc. "Potential" is different from projection-- Kopech does have ace upside, but there are plenty of potential roadblocks before he gets there, and you can't value him like he's a likely ace right now.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 10, 2016 13:57:06 GMT -5
No offense, but if you find a GM who thinks Kopech is Syndergaard 2.0 and is willing to give up a ton of present value for him, you trade Kopech to that team immediately. He's a good prospect, but throwing hard alone does not make you an ace, and is enough uncertainty (command, secondaries, consistency, makeup, general development and health risk) that I'm comfortable moving him in the right trade. I'm not sure Pomeranz is that trade (I think he's a little smoke-and-mirrors, but I also thought that about Rich Hill, and they're very similar pitchers), though. Not to imply that Kopech is indeed Syndergaard 2.0, but didn't he also have command/control question marks when the Jays dealt him for Dickey? He wasn't even necessarily the headliner in that deal- Travis d'Arnaud was highly ranked at the time too. Just looking at the scouting profile on this site for Kopech shows him with a 70 grade fastball (80 if 103 is real), a potential wipeout slider, average change and solid-average curve. I'd be trying to hold on to him unless we're acquiring a real difference maker, ideally in the longer run, preferably not auctioning him off for a #3-4 guy this year You get it! Kopech is so Syndergaard 2. 0. (hear that?) He is wildly underrated by the reigning pundits. But secretly, every GM wants Kopech badly, and I can absolutely 1000% guarantee that DDo will not give him up. Not for Rich Hill, not for Teheran, not for anybody. He's that good. Not sure how I can back my guarantee up, other than I will never shoot my mouth off again, if I'm wrong!
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2016 14:19:49 GMT -5
Not to imply that Kopech is indeed Syndergaard 2.0, but didn't he also have command/control question marks when the Jays dealt him for Dickey? He wasn't even necessarily the headliner in that deal- Travis d'Arnaud was highly ranked at the time too. Just looking at the scouting profile on this site for Kopech shows him with a 70 grade fastball (80 if 103 is real), a potential wipeout slider, average change and solid-average curve. I'd be trying to hold on to him unless we're acquiring a real difference maker, ideally in the longer run, preferably not auctioning him off for a #3-4 guy this year You get it! Kopech is so Syndergaard 2. 0. (hear that?) He is wildly underrated by the reigning pundits. But secretly, every GM wants Kopech badly, and I can absolutely 1000% guarantee that DDo will not give him up. Not for Rich Hill, not for Teheran, not for anybody. He's that good. Not sure how I can back my guarantee up, other than I will never shoot my mouth off again, if I'm wrong! Well, I do think Kopech is underrated, simply because the CW on him as a HSer/immediate post-draftee has persisted. He seems to have at least a solid second pitch and a viable third pitch. On the other hand, he's had issues and is in high A. I like his chances of making AA for a brief stint at the end of the year. I see him as about two years away, maybe a little less. I believe in Pomeranz, though. Personally, I wouldn't do that deal because I'm not convinced that the Sox "need" starting pitching. I think it's very unlikely that their 4/5 slots continue to be nearly this bad. And, I've made the point that I think their goal, with so few holes, should be focused on max upside player development, since they have enough low-cost stars to be able to afford a few mid-level FA signings on shorter contracts (which tend to be cost-effective). But, I could shrug off that trade alright (Kind of like the Mike Boddicker acquisition), at least until Kopech started blowing away MLB hitters.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 10, 2016 14:29:27 GMT -5
Yeah, I believe Coppy is playing coy by asking for Moncada for Teheran, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech/Devers +. Deal! Coppy will say. Sucker!
ADD: DDo says everyone is asking for Moncada/Benintendi, so Rinse, wash, repeat... Preller is playing coy by asking for Moncada/Benintendi for Pomeranz, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech +. Deal, Preller will say, Sucker!
But DDo is nobody's b****. I promise you.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2016 14:53:51 GMT -5
Yeah, I believe Coppy is playing coy by asking for Moncada for Teheran, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech/Devers +. Deal! Coppy will say. Sucker! But DDo is nobody's b****. I promise you. Hey, look at the thread you posted that in.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 10, 2016 15:06:29 GMT -5
Yeah, I believe Coppy is playing coy by asking for Moncada for Teheran, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech/Devers +. Deal! Coppy will say. Sucker! ADD: DDo says everyone is asking for Moncada/Benintendi, so Rinse, wash, repeat... Preller is playing coy by asking for Moncada/Benintendi for Pomeranz, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech +. Deal, Preller will say, Sucker! But DDo is nobody's b****. I promise you. Hey, look at the thread you posted that in. Sorry! FIFY.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2016 15:11:34 GMT -5
No, you didn't fix it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2016 17:29:44 GMT -5
Yeah, I believe Coppy is playing coy by asking for Moncada for Teheran, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech/Devers +. Deal! Coppy will say. Sucker! ADD: DDo says everyone is asking for Moncada/Benintendi, so Rinse, wash, repeat... Preller is playing coy by asking for Moncada/Benintendi for Pomeranz, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech +. Deal, Preller will say, Sucker! But DDo is nobody's b****. I promise you. What? I thought they had a deal in place?
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 11, 2016 21:26:17 GMT -5
Yeah, I believe Coppy is playing coy by asking for Moncada for Teheran, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech/Devers +. Deal! Coppy will say. Sucker! ADD: DDo says everyone is asking for Moncada/Benintendi, so Rinse, wash, repeat... Preller is playing coy by asking for Moncada/Benintendi for Pomeranz, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech +. Deal, Preller will say, Sucker! But DDo is nobody's b****. I promise you. What? I thought they had a deal in place? jimed, who bless his heart, reads every post, has correctly asked that we keep the Braves posts separate. There's more over in the Braves trade thread if you're interested.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 12, 2016 2:20:18 GMT -5
Not to imply that Kopech is indeed Syndergaard 2.0, but didn't he also have command/control question marks when the Jays dealt him for Dickey? He wasn't even necessarily the headliner in that deal- Travis d'Arnaud was highly ranked at the time too. Just looking at the scouting profile on this site for Kopech shows him with a 70 grade fastball (80 if 103 is real), a potential wipeout slider, average change and solid-average curve. I'd be trying to hold on to him unless we're acquiring a real difference maker, ideally in the longer run, preferably not auctioning him off for a #3-4 guy this year Not every hard-throwing prospect with command issues improves their command enough to be an elite starting pitcher. The vast majority don't. See, e.g., Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, etc. "Potential" is different from projection-- Kopech does have ace upside, but there are plenty of potential roadblocks before he gets there, and you can't value him like he's a likely ace right now. Sure, but I'd value upside pretty heavily, especially since it seems like you can put Kopech's likely floor as that of a high-leverage bullpen arm given his stuff and relatively clean mechanics. I'm not saying that because he sits in the high 90s with life and has good-looking secondary stuff that he now projects to be an ace. What I am saying is that dismissing the possibility of him hitting is ceiling is not a great idea, and nor is dealing a guy with that kind of ceiling/raw talent for a short term fix. Pomeranz, for example, looks decent enough but pitches in the NL West, which is full of pitcher's parks with the exception of Coors, has a .240 BABIP and an 81% strand rate, so in my mind suggesting Kopech+ for him seems like a terrible idea. Basically I feel like his upside makes him worth holding on to considering the fact that his value as a trade chip is not particularly high right now: he's in high A, he's shown some character issues, and he has question marks on command/control. I think his upside is too high to be a throw in, and the risk involved is too high for him to be the only cost or centerpiece of a deal. So I'd keep him and hope he develops, knowing that most guys with his level of arm talent will at least find themselves jobs in a major league bullpen, and the best case scenario is a bona fide ace. If there were a legitimate possibility to get a Sale/Quintana/Fernandez etc., I'd absolutely part with him and a whole lot more, but not for the marginal starter we're far more likely to acquire
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2016 6:11:58 GMT -5
What? I thought they had a deal in place? jimed, who bless his heart, reads every post, has correctly asked that we keep the Braves posts separate. There's more over in the Braves trade thread if you're interested. I didn't ask that. I pointed out after you said DDO is nobody's b***h, that you posted it in the Padres thread who did make him his b***h last winter. Of course you knew that's what I was implying.
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Jul 12, 2016 6:50:04 GMT -5
Not every hard-throwing prospect with command issues improves their command enough to be an elite starting pitcher. The vast majority don't. See, e.g., Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, etc. "Potential" is different from projection-- Kopech does have ace upside, but there are plenty of potential roadblocks before he gets there, and you can't value him like he's a likely ace right now. Sure, but I'd value upside pretty heavily, especially since it seems like you can put Kopech's likely floor as that of a high-leverage bullpen arm given his stuff and relatively clean mechanics. I'm not saying that because he sits in the high 90s with life and has good-looking secondary stuff that he now projects to be an ace. What I am saying is that dismissing the possibility of him hitting is ceiling is not a great idea, and nor is dealing a guy with that kind of ceiling/raw talent for a short term fix. Pomeranz, for example, looks decent enough but pitches in the NL West, which is full of pitcher's parks with the exception of Coors, has a .240 BABIP and an 81% strand rate, so in my mind suggesting Kopech+ for him seems like a terrible idea. Basically I feel like his upside makes him worth holding on to considering the fact that his value as a trade chip is not particularly high right now: he's in high A, he's shown some character issues, and he has question marks on command/control. I think his upside is too high to be a throw in, and the risk involved is too high for him to be the only cost or centerpiece of a deal. So I'd keep him and hope he develops, knowing that most guys with his level of arm talent will at least find themselves jobs in a major league bullpen, and the best case scenario is a bona fide ace. If there were a legitimate possibility to get a Sale/Quintana/Fernandez etc., I'd absolutely part with him and a whole lot more, but not for the marginal starter we're far more likely to acquire Even if there is some regression from Pomeranz moving from the NL West to the AL East, he's still going to be an at worst low 3 ERA pitcher with a high strikeout rate under team control for 3 more seasons. Kopech isn't likely to get his cup of coffee until late 2017, with him maybe* being a full-time starting pitcher in 2018. Essentially if you deal Kopech (+ others) you get a year and a half of Pomeranz for 'free' and his final year of his contract in 2018 the Red Sox can decide whether or not they want to extend him, or give him a Qualifying Offer. The reason I like trading for Pomeranz over a rental like Hill or Hellickson, for example, is because it not only helps us get to and win in the playoffs this year, but next year we will need another starting pitcher anyways (Price, Porcello, Wright, ERod...??). I'm sick of having the merry-go-round that is the final rotation spot and the value we will get from Pomeranz should exceed (especially with the potential draft pick from a QO) that of the potential of Michael Kopech possibly turning into a ::gasp:: Drew Pomeranz. Trust me as I say this, I like Kopech's potential just as much as anyone else, but he is still a ways from making it to Boston and a lot can go wrong during that time period.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2016 8:29:50 GMT -5
Drew Pomeranz has a 3.75 SIERA and a 3.62 walk rate. His stuff doesn't blow anyone away, really. 91.2 avg FB velo.
He would probably have at least a 3.75 ERA in the AL East, and if his BB/9 rose with the DH, he may be lucky to have a 4.00 ERA.
He's a solid pitcher, but when you look deeper and consider the farm's pitching depth, giving Kopech up would be a tough call for him. And that's not even to say he's not worth Kopech, because he'll fetch more value than Kopech alone in today's market. But for us, I'm not sure I like the fit.
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Jul 12, 2016 9:26:42 GMT -5
Drew Pomeranz has a 3.75 SIERA and a 3.62 walk rate. His stuff doesn't blow anyone away, really. 91.2 avg FB velo. He would probably have at least a 3.75 ERA in the AL East, and if his BB/9 rose with the DH, he may be lucky to have a 4.00 ERA. He's a solid pitcher, but when you look deeper and consider the farm's pitching depth, giving Kopech up would be a tough call for him. And that's not even to say he's not worth Kopech, because he'll fetch more value than Kopech alone in today's market. But for us, I'm not sure I like the fit. Anyone can twist stats to their liking, but the fact of the matter is that even with a slightly higher than average walk rate he is giving up hits a a criminally low rate. His fastball velocity is irrelevant, considering he throws his offspeed pitches well over half the time, I believe he trails only Rich Hill for his curveball usage and gets a ton of swings and misses with it. He has also improved his changeup usage and it has been a much more effective pitch for him this year. Personally I feel he is a great fit for the Red Sox considering he can keep the ball on the ground (roughly 48 GB%, ranks him 35th of qualified starters, 8.8% HR/FB, 14th) who can also strike out batters at a high clip. Sure there might be some regression, but even still he has figured out how to pitch and be most effective with his pitches and will still be at worst a solid #3 starter for us for a few years. Which starting pitcher would you rather acquire either at the deadline or this offseason via trade or free agency? More and more teams are locking up their young cost-controlled starters (for good reason) and Pomeranz might be one of the better options available over the near future.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2016 9:44:10 GMT -5
The HR/FB% is meaningless in San Diego.
His BB rate is 15th worst among qualified starters. His LOB is inflated. His ERA will regress no matter where he spends his second half.
Again, I think he's a solid pitcher, and I don't envision the Sox trading for anyone better than him realistically, but I'm skeptical enough of him to prefer giving up less for a slightly worse pitcher.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 12, 2016 10:08:09 GMT -5
The HR/FB% is meaningless in San Diego. His BB rate is 15th worst among qualified starters. His LOB is inflated. His ERA will regress no matter where he spends his second half. Again, I think he's a solid pitcher, and I don't envision the Sox trading for anyone better than him realistically, but I'm skeptical enough of him to prefer giving up less for a slightly worse pitcher. He is pitching better on the road than at Petco this year. He has given up more HR in Petco than on the road, even though he has started more games on the road.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 12, 2016 10:19:52 GMT -5
Drew Pomeranz has a 3.75 SIERA and a 3.62 walk rate. His stuff doesn't blow anyone away, really. 91.2 avg FB velo. He would probably have at least a 3.75 ERA in the AL East, and if his BB/9 rose with the DH, he may be lucky to have a 4.00 ERA. He's a solid pitcher, but when you look deeper and consider the farm's pitching depth, giving Kopech up would be a tough call for him. And that's not even to say he's not worth Kopech, because he'll fetch more value than Kopech alone in today's market. But for us, I'm not sure I like the fit. Anyone can twist stats to their liking, but the fact of the matter is that even with a slightly higher than average walk rate he is giving up hits a a criminally low rate. His fastball velocity is irrelevant, considering he throws his offspeed pitches well over half the time, I believe he trails only Rich Hill for his curveball usage and gets a ton of swings and misses with it. He has also improved his changeup usage and it has been a much more effective pitch for him this year. Personally I feel he is a great fit for the Red Sox considering he can keep the ball on the ground (roughly 48 GB%, ranks him 35th of qualified starters, 8.8% HR/FB, 14th) who can also strike out batters at a high clip. Sure there might be some regression, but even still he has figured out how to pitch and be most effective with his pitches and will still be at worst a solid #3 starter for us for a few years. Which starting pitcher would you rather acquire either at the deadline or this offseason via trade or free agency? More and more teams are locking up their young cost-controlled starters (for good reason) and Pomeranz might be one of the better options available over the near future. He's got a .240 BABIP and an 81% strand rate. That's not holding up even if he stays in the NL West, let alone if he moves to the AL East and pitches half of his games in Fenway. Again I wouldn't be against dealing for him, but I'm not giving up Kopech to do it, which likely means it wouldn't happen. I'd rather go after Rich Hill, because he's a 37 year old rental for whom the asking price will be lower, and he's put up better numbers than Pomeranz, albeit with a strand rate and HR/FB that may well regress. There's a good chance that we already have 4 above average to better starting pitchers for next year already on our roster (Price, Porcello, Wright and Rodriguez) so acquiring someone for the longer run isn't as much of a concern in my mind- you need a bridge guy while E-Rod figures out how not to tip pitches, and next year you throw Owens, Kelly, Elias and Buchholz at a wall and see who sticks. Also it's worth noting that, while I've seen rumors about us scouting Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi, there's nothing out there about us scouting the Padres at all that I've seen, so it seems likely that he's looking for a deal with a lesser prospect cost than someone like Pomeranz would likely command
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nomar
Veteran
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2016 11:46:00 GMT -5
The HR/FB% is meaningless in San Diego. His BB rate is 15th worst among qualified starters. His LOB is inflated. His ERA will regress no matter where he spends his second half. Again, I think he's a solid pitcher, and I don't envision the Sox trading for anyone better than him realistically, but I'm skeptical enough of him to prefer giving up less for a slightly worse pitcher. He is pitching better on the road than at Petco this year. He has given up more HR in Petco than on the road, even though he has started more games on the road. That's a small sample though. Basically a quarter of a season (half of the first half). Not enough for me to buy in significantly to, personally.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 12, 2016 12:20:54 GMT -5
They could always trade for Hell boy and re-sign him.
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Post by bostonbatboy on Jul 12, 2016 12:47:15 GMT -5
Yeah, I believe Coppy is playing coy by asking for Moncada for Teheran, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech/Devers +. Deal! Coppy will say. Sucker! ADD: DDo says everyone is asking for Moncada/Benintendi, so Rinse, wash, repeat... Preller is playing coy by asking for Moncada/Benintendi for Pomeranz, when he's hoping DDo will counter with Kopech +. Deal, Preller will say, Sucker! But DDo is nobody's b****. I promise you.
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