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Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2015 8:39:39 GMT -5
What Papelbon thinks is immaterial. Uehara is the better pitcher, and Farrell believes (credibly) that the reason he's been such a great closer is that hitters have a different approach in the 9th, allowing Uehara to throw his splitter more and get it chased more. What Papelbon thinks is not immaterial. He is one of 3 closers to hold all time save records for more than one team (Boston/Philadelphia). Whether Uehara is "better" at this point is debatable. Personally I think this would give Farrell another bullet and he should use either Papelbon or UEhara based on match-ups. I can't speak to the front office's apparent frugality when it comes to the bullpen. Their are less costly options available. I believe Cherrington's mantra of promoting from within is to be taken with a grain of salt, especially if this team evolves into a Pennant contender. On that note I have interest is Noe Raimerez. His stuff is not outstanding, but between the ears he has the making of a solid performer out of the bullpen.
Noe Ramirez is on the DL. And screw Papelbon if he's demanding a certain role before he's traded. Amaro is probably asking for Margot and Devers anyway.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2015 9:07:25 GMT -5
Well it's not as easy as "screw Papelbon, he'll do what he's told." If you piss him off, there's the chance that a) he isn't as effective pitching because of it, and b) he becomes a locker room issue. Doesn't make it right, but it does make him less valuable in that role if you think those are issues that will pop up and affect either him or other players, respectively.
This is a guy who turned down a chance to start/asked to remain a reliever because he felt he was a closer. He went out of his way to set the salary bar higher for closers. He's prideful. And he's already got his ring, so it's not like he's some late career veteran doing whatever he can to get that one moment in October.
I honestly doubt that demoting Papelbon to a setup role would go over well enough to make it worth doing.
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Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2015 9:57:54 GMT -5
Well it's not as easy as "screw Papelbon, he'll do what he's told." If you piss him off, there's the chance that a) he isn't as effective pitching because of it, and b) he becomes a locker room issue. Doesn't make it right, but it does make him less valuable in that role if you think those are issues that will pop up and affect either him or other players, respectively. This is a guy who turned down a chance to start/asked to remain a reliever because he felt he was a closer. He went out of his way to set the salary bar higher for closers. He's prideful. And he's already got his ring, so it's not like he's some late career veteran doing whatever he can to get that one moment in October. I honestly doubt that demoting Papelbon to a setup role would go over well enough to make it worth doing. It is as easy as "screw Papelbon, don't trade for him then."
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Post by jrffam05 on May 15, 2015 10:15:36 GMT -5
Well, it becomes would Papelbon rather close for the Phillies, or set up for the Red Sox. He has said before he would welcome a return to the Red Sox. If he was really was thinking about pitching for the Red Sox again, the possibility of not closing with Uehara here would have to at least be in the back of his mind. But this type of speculation is literally useless.
Trade value wise, I can't see a reason why Papelbon's value would deviate much from Peavy's last year.
I really like what Barnes has added to this bullpen, and if Ogando continues controlling his walks he should be solid, but I'd still like to see the Red Sox make a move to supplement the back end of the bullpen, doesn't have to be Papelbon.
Glen Perkins would be interesting if available. Would be nice to add a solid lefty who could handle the 7th inning.
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Post by ethanbein on May 15, 2015 10:41:48 GMT -5
The difference between Koji and Papelbon is there, but not as large as you might think. I can't imagine having Papelbon pitch the 9th and Koji the 8th would really have much of an effect at all relative to having Papelbon set up, so if he wanted to close that badly, I would probably let him.
Now, the option is a whole other issue - it's fairly expensive for an aging reliever. However, Papelbon is still quite good and still should project reasonably well for next year if he stays healthy. It would be a bit of an overpay, but if the team decides to go over the luxury tax threshold for 2016 again, it might just be worth it. In any case, I still don't think bringing in Papelbon to close out games is a terrible idea, especially if he can be had for a reasonable price.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 15, 2015 10:44:10 GMT -5
I was/am intrigued by Papelbon as a set-up guy because an Uehara-Papelbon-Tazawa-Ogando led bullpen would be pretty awesome. But, realistically, if Barnes pitches as well as it looks like he will, I think Papelbon will be more valuable elsewhere than in Boston (not that Barnes will be as good as Papelbon, just that the delta between the two of them will be smaller than for some other teams). And Amaro's not going to be giving anyone away, we know that. Relievers are almost always over-valued during the season, so I just don't see Papelbon coming here again.
I'm getting more intrigued by the idea of an Aro, Light, Diaz, or someone like that helping in the second half of the year.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 15, 2015 11:11:12 GMT -5
Hembree seems to be the forgotten man. His 20 innings in Pawtucket since his acquisition have good, the 11 in Boston not so much. Thought on him?
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Post by mgoetze on May 15, 2015 11:12:04 GMT -5
I can't imagine having Papelbon pitch the 9th and Koji the 8th would really have much of an effect at all relative to having Papelbon set up, so if he wanted to close that badly, I would probably let him. Well as a matter of fact, having Breslow close and Uehara pitch the 8th is just as good as having Uehara close and Breslow pitch the 8th, since either way you expect to give up the same number of runs total. The way to improve that is to not have Breslow pitch at all. The only problem with Papelbon closing is that his option would vest, which the Red Sox wouldn't/shouldn't want.
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Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2015 11:33:26 GMT -5
I can't imagine having Papelbon pitch the 9th and Koji the 8th would really have much of an effect at all relative to having Papelbon set up, so if he wanted to close that badly, I would probably let him. Well as a matter of fact, having Breslow close and Uehara pitch the 8th is just as good as having Uehara close and Breslow pitch the 8th, since either way you expect to give up the same number of runs total. The way to improve that is to not have Breslow pitch at all. Depends on who is up in the batting order.
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Post by ethanbein on May 15, 2015 12:03:30 GMT -5
Well as a matter of fact, having Breslow close and Uehara pitch the 8th is just as good as having Uehara close and Breslow pitch the 8th, since either way you expect to give up the same number of runs total. The way to improve that is to not have Breslow pitch at all. Depends on who is up in the batting order. Mostly, this is just wrong because leverage is higher in the ninth. My point was that the difference ion leverage isn't that large and the 2 relievers are pretty similar in skill level that you wouldn't lose much by having Papelbon close. You would definitely lose a little bit though. I'm not super convinced by arguments that it's best to have your best relievers face the best hitters. The good hitters will still be good against good relievers, just not as good, and the bad hitters will do better against the bad reliever. It might make a small difference due to the nonlinearity of run scoring, but I'm not convinced it's a particularly significant factor.
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Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2015 12:07:00 GMT -5
Depends on who is up in the batting order. Mostly, this is just wrong because leverage is higher in the ninth. My point was that the difference ion leverage isn't that large and the 2 relievers are pretty similar in skill level that you wouldn't lose much by having Papelbon close. You would definitely lose a little bit though. I'm not super convinced by arguments that it's best to have your best relievers face the best hitters. The good hitters will still be good against good relievers, just not as good, and the bad hitters will do better against the bad reliever. It might make a small difference due to the nonlinearity of run scoring, but I'm not convinced it's a particularly significant factor. So in the 8th inning with a 1 run lead, you'd rather have Breslow facing Cano and Cruz and save Koji for the guys hitting under .200 that follow? The leverage is not higher in the 9th in that situation. The skill levels of the pitchers isn't really applicable because if they were equal it wouldn't matter who pitched which inning. Good pitchers get good hitters out more often than bad pitchers do.
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Post by mgoetze on May 15, 2015 12:11:41 GMT -5
Well as a matter of fact, having Breslow close and Uehara pitch the 8th is just as good as having Uehara close and Breslow pitch the 8th, since either way you expect to give up the same number of runs total. The way to improve that is to not have Breslow pitch at all. Depends on who is up in the batting order. Actually, it doesn't, at least according to MGL. Probably only holds because I sneakily worded it to be based on expected runs - the probability that you give up exactly one run might be slightly different. Anyway, it's not as if Farrell has ever decided to pitch Koji in the 8th because that's when the heart of the order was up, so at least with Farrell as manager it doesn't matter who's the 8th inning guy and who's the 9th innin Mostly, this is just wrong because leverage is higher in the ninth. Sometimes it is, and sometimes it isn't because you scored an insurance run. That should even out in the long run.
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Post by jmei on May 15, 2015 12:44:27 GMT -5
Hembree seems to be the forgotten man. His 20 innings in Pawtucket since his acquisition have good, the 11 in Boston not so much. Thought on him? I'm pretty down on him. He feels like Alex Wilson to me insofar as he was hyped as a potential difference-making reliever ("future closer" was thrown around), but he just didn't progress as much as he needed to to hit that ceiling. The stuff is more good than great (his breaking ball has stalled in terms of its development, the fastball velo is more low-90s than mid-90s), and his command hasn't really improved enough to jump him up a tier. I think he could be an OK 7th inning guy, but I'm not sure he'll ever be much better than your fifth- or sixth-best reliever.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 15, 2015 13:13:08 GMT -5
Hembree seems to be the forgotten man. His 20 innings in Pawtucket since his acquisition have good, the 11 in Boston not so much. Thought on him? I'm pretty down on him. He feels like Alex Wilson to me insofar as he was hyped as a potential difference-making reliever ("future closer" was thrown around), but he just didn't progress as much as he needed to to hit that ceiling. The stuff is more good than great (his breaking ball has stalled in terms of its development, the fastball velo is more low-90s than mid-90s), and his command hasn't really improved enough to jump him up a tier. I think he could be an OK 7th inning guy, but I'm not sure he'll ever be much better than your fifth- or sixth-best reliever. Well this year including Boston he's walked 3 in 14.2 innings, while striking out 16. I agree with your points, his ceiling just isn't there, but so far this year I don't see much reason besides Ross's handedness that he shouldn't get a chance in the bigs.
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Post by p23w on May 15, 2015 15:03:08 GMT -5
What Papelbon thinks is not immaterial. He is one of 3 closers to hold all time save records for more than one team (Boston/Philadelphia). Whether Uehara is "better" at this point is debatable. Personally I think this would give Farrell another bullet and he should use either Papelbon or UEhara based on match-ups. I can't speak to the front office's apparent frugality when it comes to the bullpen. Their are less costly options available. I believe Cherrington's mantra of promoting from within is to be taken with a grain of salt, especially if this team evolves into a Pennant contender. On that note I have interest is Noe Raimerez. His stuff is not outstanding, but between the ears he has the making of a solid performer out of the bullpen.
Noe Ramirez is on the DL. And screw Papelbon if he's demanding a certain role before he's traded. Amaro is probably asking for Margot and Devers anyway. I am well aware of Ramirez's strained forearm. As far as Papelbon role demands, I don't know if he has any. I just point to the legacy statistics which most players become aware/concerned about late in their careers.
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ak37
Rookie
Posts: 8
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Post by ak37 on May 18, 2015 22:02:39 GMT -5
Curious for some other peoples thoughts on Joe Kelly eventually succeeding Koji as the Red Sox closer?
I'm not saying this year.....but depending on how Koji holds up / performs over the next year or two and how Kelly does as a starter long term, I think he would have great potential to be a dominant closer. The situation reminds me a little of Tom Gordon. Kelly has stuff that is undeniably filthy and if he only needed to pitch one inning at a time I think you could see him consistently hitting 97-99 mph with a pretty good breaking and off speed stuff.
Some of this also depends on the Sox young pitchers filling out the rotation and of course the performance of Buchholz & Porcello......but I think this is an interesting possibility
Thoughts?
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 18, 2015 22:06:50 GMT -5
No need to open a thread for that.
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ak37
Rookie
Posts: 8
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Post by ak37 on May 18, 2015 22:12:40 GMT -5
No need to open a thread for that. I get it - but this is a different topic My post was not about the 2015 bullpen......it was about the idea of Kelly possibly becoming a closer in say 2016 or 2017 and how his stuff could be dominant in that role. No big deal though
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 18, 2015 22:17:23 GMT -5
I know it's not for 2015. If it becomes a bigger topic then I'll split it into its own thread. For now it can go here.
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ak37
Rookie
Posts: 8
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Post by ak37 on May 18, 2015 22:20:53 GMT -5
I know it's not for 2015. If it becomes a bigger topic then I'll split it into its own thread. For now it can go here. I understand......but it has a much better chance of generating discussion as a thread and not buried in this one....just saying
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Post by mookiemagicfan on May 19, 2015 10:32:59 GMT -5
I would honestly see what Cin would want for Cueto and Chapman together...obviously it would be threw the roof cost wise...But if we could hold onto ERod, Mookie, Swihart, Deavers and Moncada...I'd throw the rest at them haha
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 20, 2015 10:08:47 GMT -5
Cueto is a free agent at the end of the season and so he would be a rental just for this season. He is among the five or so best pitchers in the majors. His next contract probably will be somewhere between Lester's and Scherzer's. And he will be 30 in February.
Unless the Sox philosophy changes, I doubt he will be in a Sox uniform at any time.
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Post by mookiemagicfan on May 20, 2015 10:18:13 GMT -5
So you don't think he's one of the pitchers we are looking at to add to our staff at the trade deadline? I would say you are wrong sir. And (I'm not 100 on this) but I believe he has been one of the most durable, elite aces in the mlb the last 4 or so years. If you want a younger, with less miles on the arm type pitcher...our options are very limited to...Zimmermann. And...Zimmermann. Otherwise...Price? Too costly in prospects plus Det is competing and won't trade ...Hamels...too costly prospect wise, and too much money to commit to...I mean come on...who would YOU look into trading for/extending/signing in the off-season(where we will have to outbid other teams with money who would be more willing shell out the kind of money these aces are looking for)
For me Cueto is everything we want, everything we need...and I could see a trade and an extension happen very quickly this summer. Something with a high annual value but for not too many years...like a 5/175 type. (Huge. I know)
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Post by jimed14 on May 20, 2015 10:46:51 GMT -5
Cueto is a free agent at the end of the season and so he would be a rental just for this season. He is among the five or so best pitchers in the majors. His next contract probably will be somewhere between Lester's and Scherzer's. And he will be 30 in February. Unless the Sox philosophy changes, I doubt he will be in a Sox uniform at any time. I think the Red Sox would absolutely be interested in him as a rental if they're in the playoff hunt in July.
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Post by jmei on Jun 20, 2015 11:33:15 GMT -5
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