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Post by jmei on Dec 16, 2014 17:27:14 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 16, 2014 18:45:30 GMT -5
You can trade a guy after he's been DFA. I meant beforehand... Should have used the word couldn't. My point was that they may not have tried. If they knew there was interest, they could DFA him to get the 40-man spot and engage teams in trade talks while he's in DFA limbo. Would cut into their leverage some, but if they are certain there's interest, they'll still be able to move him, in theory.
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Post by seanleary001 on Dec 16, 2014 18:53:08 GMT -5
Brian Wilson was DFA'd today. His energy would be good in the bullpen even though his numbers are declining.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 16, 2014 23:03:16 GMT -5
Wow that's smart on his part. I think he would've made a good closer if he had chosen that path an injury earlier in his career though.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Dec 17, 2014 12:57:46 GMT -5
So with the addition of Varvaro, likely gives us a pen of: CL: Uehara SU: Tazawa RP: Mujica RP: Varvaro RP: Layne (I think he deserves the spot unless we acquire a better LHP) RP: Britton/Spruill/Workman/Wright/Barnes RP: Britton/Spruill/Workman/Wright/Barnes
I'm pretty comfortable going with that into Spring Training. Varvaro and Tazawa can get lefties out, Mujica had a solid 2nd half and is in a contract year so will have a lot to prove. And I'm guessing Spruill and Workman win the last 2 spots with Barnes and Wright to AAA, and Britton DFA'd late in the Spring(and my guess is he isn't claimed and stays in Boston with most teams having filled rosters by then)
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 17, 2014 19:29:16 GMT -5
So with the addition of Varvaro, likely gives us a pen of: CL: Uehara SU: Tazawa RP: Mujica RP: Varvaro RP: Layne (I think he deserves the spot unless we acquire a better LHP) RP: Britton/Spruill/Workman/Wright/Barnes RP: Britton/Spruill/Workman/Wright/Barnes I'm pretty comfortable going with that into Spring Training. Varvaro and Tazawa can get lefties out, Mujica had a solid 2nd half and is in a contract year so will have a lot to prove. And I'm guessing Spruill and Workman win the last 2 spots with Barnes and Wright to AAA, and Britton DFA'd late in the Spring(and my guess is he isn't claimed and stays in Boston with most teams having filled rosters by then) This is probably as good a bet right now as any. But, I do not think that it is a very intimidating bunch. I suspect further changes/acquisitions to be made both before and during the season. For me this in no way compares to Kelly, Warren, Miller, Betances for instance.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 18, 2014 12:47:54 GMT -5
Dalier Hinojosa
Could he challenge for a spot in the pen this spring/year?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 18, 2014 13:11:00 GMT -5
Dalier Hinojosa Could he challenge for a spot in the pen this spring/year? Since he's not on the 40, likely not out of ST, but I could see him getting a shot someone during the year if he keeps improving.
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Post by jmei on Dec 18, 2014 13:41:42 GMT -5
They aren't really tight on 40-man spots anymore (they're at 39, with Britton (a guy I think is a definite DFA candidate) still on there and only one other real FA need (backup catcher)), so I don't think that'll be a huge consideration. I've been a big fan of Hinojosa's, and I think he could make a push for the last spot coming out of Spring Training. But he'll have to win a competition between guys like Workman, Britton, Wright, Spruill, Hembree, etc. to get that spot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 18, 2014 14:50:13 GMT -5
They aren't really tight on 40-man spots anymore (they're at 39, with Britton (a guy I think is a definite DFA candidate) still on there and only one other real FA need (backup catcher)), so I don't think that'll be a huge consideration. I've been a big fan of Hinojosa's, and I think he could make a push for the last spot coming out of Spring Training. But he'll have to win a competition between guys like Workman, Britton, Wright, Spruill, Hembree, etc. to get that spot. Actually, Varvaro puts them at 40. I think Spruill is a likely DFA to make room for a backup catcher. However, they still have one or two excess and hence very tradeable SP in Ranaudo and Workman. (I'd have no problem opening the season with a PawSox rotation of Owens, Barnes, Rodriguez, Johnson, and Escobar or Couch, with Hernandez providing further depth, and you'd still have Hembree, Hinojosa, Celestino, Ramirez, probably Spruill, and Scott to round out the pen.) And Craig is being talked about. So there's a possibility that they still deal for a LHR who could pitch the 7th or 8th. If they don't, I think Britton actually has an inside shot at one of the two jobs up for grabs. There were three huge surprises involving him last year: that he was so completely terrible in Pawtucket, that they called him up after just two great outings in a three game stretch (totaling 6.1 7 0 0 2 7, 68% strikes), and that he was so good after the recall. That, and a track record of not being the most mature bulb in the chandelier, supports the narrative that he was spent most of the year in a pissed-off funk over his demotion. I'd say Wright has the other inside track, but whether he or Workman would be a better fit depends on whether you think you need another guy that you're comfortable with in mid-leverage situations, versus a long reliever. Barnes is only in the conversation, I think, if they don't deal either Ranaudo or Workman; converting him to relief given the quality of his secondary pitches when they're on seems way premature.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 18, 2014 15:36:19 GMT -5
It really all depends on what else they do this offseason. But even if there's room on the 40, adding him means taking a spot away that they could, say, just leave open and keep all of the options they have on there. Currently on the 40-man:
Definitely in MLB: Tazawa, Uehara, Workman, Mujica, Varvaro Probably in MLB, at least at some point: Layne, Hembree, Spruill DFA candidate: Britton I-95/may also start: Wright, Ranaudo, Escobar, Barnes
So in theory, I think Hinojosa needs to significantly outpitch all of Layne, Hembree, and Spruill in order to justify adding him out of ST (versus later in the year). If you give him the spot out of ST, and then he blows up, well, now he's on the 40 and needs to be DFA to be removed. That's why I think it's most likely he returns to AAA to start the year, with the possibility of making his way up later on.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 18, 2014 21:07:26 GMT -5
Do we think cherrington is done as far as the bullpen goes?
I think they still need another lefty.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 18, 2014 21:16:25 GMT -5
Larrycook.
Please start spelling Cherington correctly.
Thank you.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 18, 2014 22:25:36 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see how the Escobar situation plays out. I agree with Chris that we should give him more time as a starter, but I don't think that it's a given.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2014 6:09:25 GMT -5
They aren't really tight on 40-man spots anymore (they're at 39, with Britton (a guy I think is a definite DFA candidate) still on there and only one other real FA need (backup catcher)), so I don't think that'll be a huge consideration. I've been a big fan of Hinojosa's, and I think he could make a push for the last spot coming out of Spring Training. But he'll have to win a competition between guys like Workman, Britton, Wright, Spruill, Hembree, etc. to get that spot. Actually, Varvaro puts them at 40. I think Spruill is a likely DFA to make room for a backup catcher. However, they still have one or two excess and hence very tradeable SP in Ranaudo and Workman. (I'd have no problem opening the season with a PawSox rotation of Owens, Barnes, Rodriguez, Johnson, and Escobar or Couch, with Hernandez providing further depth, and you'd still have Hembree, Hinojosa, Celestino, Ramirez, probably Spruill, and Scott to round out the pen.) And Craig is being talked about. So there's a possibility that they still deal for a LHR who could pitch the 7th or 8th. If they don't, I think Britton actually has an inside shot at one of the two jobs up for grabs. There were three huge surprises involving him last year: that he was so completely terrible in Pawtucket, that they called him up after just two great outings in a three game stretch (totaling 6.1 7 0 0 2 7, 68% strikes), and that he was so good after the recall. That, and a track record of not being the most mature bulb in the chandelier, supports the narrative that he was spent most of the year in a pissed-off funk over his demotion. I'd say Wright has the other inside track, but whether he or Workman would be a better fit depends on whether you think you need another guy that you're comfortable with in mid-leverage situations, versus a long reliever. Barnes is only in the conversation, I think, if they don't deal either Ranaudo or Workman; converting him to relief given the quality of his secondary pitches when they're on seems way premature. I don't know if I buy into the pissed off narrative (or usually any narrative) but, no question Britton turned on a dime and was night and day all of a sudden. It was very strannge and he ended the year showing the arm that should have been there all year. When they are both 'on', I think Britton is a better lefty than Layne but Layne was more consistent. I was impressed with the steady growth of Hinojosa, he seemed to grow with every outing. Not dominant but should end up a decent middle reliever. Escobar was another interesting turnaround. His numbers don't show it but he was pretty underwhelming until the last few starts and into the playoffs. Hopefully, he'll build on that and get himself back into top 100 turf.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2014 6:16:10 GMT -5
Here's how I see it now:
Uehara, Tazawa, Mujica, and Varvaro are the only guarantees.
I think that folks who are writing off Drake Britton because of his PawSox season are threatening to flunk out of Volatility of Relievers 101. He has very good stuff and has had very good MLB success, and I think he keeps a job if he comes to ST throwing the way he did at the end of last year.
Breslow is the final guy without an option, and he needs to show that his stuff has returned to his 2013 quality.
So that leaves one or two spots. If either Britton or Breslow doesn't make the staff, then Layne does as a LOOGY.
If both Britton and Breslow make the team, then the question is, what sort of pitcher would be most useful as the 12th guy? Not a LOOGY, given how well the rest of the staff gets out LHB. So in that case, Layne goes back to Pawtucket and works on getting RHB out better.
The other two possibilities are long man / spot starter, meaning Wright, Workman, or Ranaudo (if he's not traded, which I still think is at least as likely as not) and yet another RH setup guy, meaning Workman or Spruill.
Now, exactly how useful would be yet another RH setup guy? Whoever fills that role starts the season as either the #3 or #4 RH setup guy, which is to say, essentially pitching mopup. They could pitch more often and with more pressure at Pawtucket. So I think Spruill goes to Pawtucket and competes with Hembree as a guy who gets called up if enough guys ahead of him get hurt or suck. And if they think that Workman has a future as a 7th / 8th inning guy, I'd send him to Pawtucket and either have him close or use him as the relief ace. (He could also get traded to a team that wants him as a starter.)
So the most useful guy, I think, would be a long man / spot starter. And I think it's really clear that Wright is not only the best of the three candidates, but a guy who has nothing to gain from pitching further in AAA.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 20, 2014 7:00:30 GMT -5
Breslow is the final guy without an option, and he needs to show that his stuff has returned to his 2013 quality. I realize that blowing $2m is not really a big deal for the Sox, but if they cut Breslow after ST the headlines are going to write themselves ("They paid Breslow $2m to not pitch but couldn't offer Lester another $2m per year to pitch like the ace we all know he is guaranteed to be" etc.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2014 7:48:19 GMT -5
Breslow is the final guy without an option, and he needs to show that his stuff has returned to his 2013 quality. I realize that blowing $2m is not really a big deal for the Sox, but if they cut Breslow after ST the headlines are going to write themselves ("They paid Breslow $2m to not pitch but couldn't offer Lester another $2m per year to pitch like the ace we all know he is guaranteed to be" etc.) Obviously, they make the decision in ST when cutting him will allow them to pay just a small portion of the salary.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 20, 2014 8:10:22 GMT -5
I realize that blowing $2m is not really a big deal for the Sox, but if they cut Breslow after ST the headlines are going to write themselves ("They paid Breslow $2m to not pitch but couldn't offer Lester another $2m per year to pitch like the ace we all know he is guaranteed to be" etc.) Obviously, they make the decision in ST when cutting him will allow them to pay just a small portion of the salary. I probably missed it , but is this not a guaranteed deal?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2014 17:54:50 GMT -5
Obviously, they make the decision in ST when cutting him will allow them to pay just a small portion of the salary. I probably missed it , but is this not a guaranteed deal? It's an excellent question. One-year deals in that price range are seldom guaranteed -- betting that a guy will definitely have 0.2 to 0.3 WAR does seem a bit nonsensical. I looked at news reports and didn't see any specification that it was guaranteed.
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Post by jmei on Dec 20, 2014 19:40:46 GMT -5
I probably missed it , but is this not a guaranteed deal? It's an excellent question. One-year deals in that price range are seldom guaranteed -- betting that a guy will definitely have 0.2 to 0.3 WAR does seem a bit nonsensical. I looked at news reports and didn't see any specification that it was guaranteed. I think you're wrong on this one. Plenty of guys land guaranteed deals in that range, especially relievers. Here's a list. Almost all of those guys got guaranteed deals (think Jason Frasor, Wesley Wright, Jim Johnson, etc.). The presumption should be that a signing in this range is a guaranteed deal until we hear otherwise, especially since almost all MLB deals are fully guaranteed.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 20, 2014 20:36:32 GMT -5
It's an excellent question. One-year deals in that price range are seldom guaranteed -- betting that a guy will definitely have 0.2 to 0.3 WAR does seem a bit nonsensical. I looked at news reports and didn't see any specification that it was guaranteed. I think you're wrong on this one. Plenty of guys land guaranteed deals in that range, especially relievers. Here's a list. Almost all of those guys got guaranteed deals (think Jason Frasor, Wesley Wright, Jim Johnson, etc.). The presumption should be that a signing in this range is a guaranteed deal until we hear otherwise, especially since almost all MLB deals are fully guaranteed. And on top of that, Breslow wouldn't have signed the deal at this point in the offseason if it wasn't guaranteed. So unless it says specifically that it is not, I think we can safely assume the deal is guaranteed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2014 23:59:00 GMT -5
I think you're wrong on this one. Plenty of guys land guaranteed deals in that range, especially relievers. Here's a list. Almost all of those guys got guaranteed deals (think Jason Frasor, Wesley Wright, Jim Johnson, etc.). The presumption should be that a signing in this range is a guaranteed deal until we hear otherwise, especially since almost all MLB deals are fully guaranteed. And on top of that, Breslow wouldn't have signed the deal at this point in the offseason if it wasn't guaranteed. So unless it says specifically that it is not, I think we can safely assume the deal is guaranteed. I don't know about the former assertion. A guy who is 34 and is coming off a -1.3 bWAR season is likely not having folks beat down his door. It's possible that he takes a non-guaranteed MLB deal to return to a familiar and comfortable situation, if the only offers he's seen are NRI ones. However, I do buy that deals in this range usually are guaranteed, and that we should therefore assume this one is. Which means, I think, they already have some reason to think Breslow bounces back. I mean, if you did, he's a great buy-low candidate; if you didn't, a guaranteed deal makes little sense.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 22, 2014 1:48:38 GMT -5
I was looking to see what kind of shut-down LH set-up guy they might add via trade. They're not common.
In fact, there were really only four such guys last year, and two of them, Andrew Miller and Zach Duke, just signed as free agents. That leaves Tony Watson of the Pirates, who has three years left before hitting free agency, and Jeremy Affeldt, who has one more year at $5M but will be 36 and coming off an unusually good season.
Four more theoretical possibilities are closers: Aroldis Chapman, who is two years away, Jake McGee, who is three years out, Zach Britton, four years out, and Sean Doolittle, who is signed for four more years plus two option years. None is likely to be worth their acquisition price.
If they're acquiring a LHR, then, it's much more likely to be a complementary piece a la Breslow 2013 rather than a guy you'd feel comfortable sharing the 8th and 7th innings with Tazawa. There's a whole second tier of guys who, like Breslow in 2013, outperformed their xFIP, like the A's Fernando Abad, and maybe one of those guys has a real BABIP and/or HR/FB skill (although that's really hard to tell in the SS of relievers).
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 22, 2014 2:44:35 GMT -5
I believe Brian Johnson should be a great bullpen arm with his command of three pitches. Also there is good chance that he will throw harder in the bullpen.
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