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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 28, 2015 10:59:14 GMT -5
Anyone remember the Butler discussion ?
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Post by jmei on Mar 28, 2015 11:10:22 GMT -5
There aren't really any free agent catchers left (just Jose Molina and Ryan Doumit, both of whom have obvious flaws).
In terms of trade replacements for Vazquez, the top name that comes to mind is Dioner Navarro (expiring contract, no playing time in Toronto). Austine Romaine might be available, but it's hard to see a trade with the Yankees going through (though the same logic might apply to Navarro and the Blue Jays). Wellington Castillo is definitely available, but he's under team control through 2017, and the Red Sox are presumably looking for a one-year stopgap (and the fact that the Diamondbacks haven't traded for him yet suggests that the Cubs aren't going to give him away). Maybe the Astros would move Jason Castro (to open up playing time for Hank Conger and Max Stassi) or the Phillies would move Carlos Ruiz, but both those guys are under control through 2016 and would require giving up a decently-sized package. Wilin Rosario was rumored to be available earlier in the year, but he's in that Evan Gattis mode of not really good enough defensive to be a catcher (and he's similarly under team control through 2017, which makes him a bad fit).
In terms of lower-profile options, one name that stood out to me was old friend George Kottaras (who I've always really liked as a three-true-outcomes type), who signed a minor league deal with the White Sox and doesn't look like he'll crack their 25-man roster.
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Post by jmei on Mar 28, 2015 11:26:58 GMT -5
Anyone remember the Butler discussion ? I didn't want to mention it, but I was pretty annoyed when they decided to DFA Butler instead of Britton (who they ended up losing anyways) to sign Breslow (a guy who I think won't be any good), and this is sort of the worst-case scenario where that decision comes back to bite you in the ***. What makes it even worse is the fact that the front office apparently doesn't see Luke Montz as a defensive catcher anymore (I think he's exclusively played 1B/DH during Spring Training), which means it's either rush Swihart up to be the starter or Hanigan plus a 35-year-old Humberto Quintero.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 28, 2015 13:00:07 GMT -5
Me too. Huge Butler fan and he's always been a vet good receiver. Still don't get why they let him go.
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Post by panikl on Mar 28, 2015 13:01:11 GMT -5
Rays TV commentary just said, that Vazquez is going to have TJ. Not sure if this is true or only his assumption.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 28, 2015 13:02:33 GMT -5
Rays TV commentary just said, that Vazquez is going to have TJ. Not sure if this is true or only his assumption. Just heard that to. Can't find anything to substantiate it but!!!!!!
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 28, 2015 13:27:25 GMT -5
Butler was optioned to AAA on the 19th - so it doesn't look like he has a very significant role to play in Washington. Maybe they could trade to get him back.
Between Butler and Quintero - who's the better option as a backup?...wish I didn't have to ask that question.
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Post by joshv02 on Mar 28, 2015 13:34:39 GMT -5
No. And why do you hate your fellow board members?
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Post by soxfan06 on Mar 28, 2015 13:47:47 GMT -5
I'm really glad people here aren't discussing service time with regards to Swihart.
I understand there is a decision to be made, but the decision should be made based on whether the team things Swihart actually needs more developmental time in AAA and not based on getting an extra year of service time out of him.
That is small market team thinking.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 28, 2015 14:56:32 GMT -5
I'm really glad people here aren't discussing service time with regards to Swihart. I understand there is a decision to be made, but the decision should be made based on whether the team things Swihart actually needs more developmental time in AAA and not based on getting an extra year of service time out of him. That is small market team thinking. I feel like you're bating everyone - but I'll take it: If Swihart were left in the minors for 12 days before being called up permanently, then that would give the Red Sox an extra year of control (171/183 days on MLB roster is 1 day short of the 172 required to count as a full year) and make Swihart a super 2 in a few years (top 22% of service time among players with 2-2.171 years of service time). Based off what Rick Porcello got in arbitration this year, let's say that saves the team 5-10 mil from signing a theoretically equally good free agent catcher in 2021 (although it is probably much more if you go over all 4 years of arbitration plus factor in the quickly inflating major league salaries). ZIPs projects each of Swihart and Hanigan to reach ~3.2 fWAR over 700 plate appearances while projecting Qunitero to reach ~1.2 fWAR over the same allotted time. So the difference between Swihart and Quintero would be about 2 fWAR over 700 PA. The Red Sox play 10 games over the first 12 days of the year (2 off days) and let's estimate that Quintero would catch 4 of those 10 games. That would mean that the difference in fWAR for those 4 games would be the 2 fWAR times the number of games times the estimated plate appearances per game divided by the estimated plate appearances over a full season (2*4*5/700 = .06). So if you were to replace Quintero with Swihart right off the bat (no point in comparing Swihart to Hanigan as they project the same fWAR) then you will be VERY conservatively spending 5-10 million in future payroll in order to win an average of .06 extra games. No matter what your value is for each win, or how strongly you account for future value and inflation, that is a very very poor investment. Not the type of investment that a man like John Henry would be happy with. (If you think Hanigan and QUintero are replacement level players then Swihart would accumulate an estimated 0.23 wins of value if he caught all 10 games - still a poor investment in my opinion) Now the point you made about development time is less important to me assuming the 3.2 fWAR estimate is a fair indicator of his current ability (I won't claim to know how getting rushed could mentally affect him long term) but it has been widely stated that Swihart could use more time in the minors to improve his pitch blocking skills - so leaving him down a little longer should fit what requirements as well. (I'll find a link later but pancakes are getting cold!) I'm content with the Red Sox roughing through 10 games of Hanigan/QUintero as long as there's light at the end of the tunnel.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 28, 2015 15:29:09 GMT -5
The Sox would be dumb to break camp with Swihart and lose a year of control.... The fact he's in minor league camp tells us they aren't going to anyways so it's a dumb conversation.
What was wrong with the Shaunessey article? It was spot on. I know people hate DS but he's a good writer and while he's a douche a lot he's also spot on quite a bit. His job is to write opinion and it's what he does and I think he gets a bad rap for it. He ruffled feathers but I don't think he's a jerk just to be a jerk as much as people think.
People right him off and it's a shame because he has a lot to offer and his call out of Ortiz is spot on and legit.
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Post by ray88h66 on Mar 28, 2015 16:11:18 GMT -5
If Vazquez is out long term I hope the Sox avoid the temptation to go with Swihart. He looks like he needs more time to me.
As for Dan S. He made some good points in his response to Big Papi. I agree with rip, he's a jerk ,but that doesn't mean he should be dismissed outright. Papi wrote a good article and so did Dan.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2015 16:27:28 GMT -5
Thankfully there's not much of a dropoff to Hanigan. If this were true then Vazquez is extremely over-rated. Hannigan is old, has never been great and is coming off a terrible year. I'm fine when he's your 30-40 game back up but he's a terrible timeshare catcher. Hanigan is a better-than-average MLB starting catcher, when you include pitch-framing, even regressed heavily. Vazquez is top 5. The drop-off here is from Hanigan as backup to Quintero / whomever. But that may be 20 starts, if Swihart is ready by mid-season. In that case, the odds are somewhat against it costing them a win. (But of course, multiple 0.4 win downgrades can add up big-time.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 28, 2015 16:33:26 GMT -5
What was wrong with the Shaunessey article? It was spot on. I know people hate DS but he's a good writer and while he's a douche a lot he's also spot on quite a bit. His job is to write opinion and it's what he does and I think he gets a bad rap for it. He ruffled feathers but I don't think he's a jerk just to be a jerk as much as people think. People right him off and it's a shame because he has a lot to offer and his call out of Ortiz is spot on and legit. Really? Because it seems like it was baseless at the time, remains unproven, and his defense includes making pedantic points about his hair color.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 28, 2015 16:37:40 GMT -5
What was wrong with the Shaunessey article? It was spot on. I know people hate DS but he's a good writer and while he's a douche a lot he's also spot on quite a bit. His job is to write opinion and it's what he does and I think he gets a bad rap for it. He ruffled feathers but I don't think he's a jerk just to be a jerk as much as people think. People right him off and it's a shame because he has a lot to offer and his call out of Ortiz is spot on and legit. Really? Because it seems like it was baseless at the time, remains unproven, and his defense includes making pedantic points about his hair color. Uhh what?
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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 28, 2015 16:37:55 GMT -5
Talent evaluators following the Sox, however, maintain that the added exposure is tied to the team’s desire to trade him to alleviate their crowded outfield situation. And with a week left before the team breaks camp, there was talk here that the Sox were close to trading Craig, though that could not be confirmed Saturday afternoon. espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/42490/allen-craig-trade-rumors-increase
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Post by ray88h66 on Mar 28, 2015 16:46:02 GMT -5
What was wrong with the Shaunessey article? It was spot on. I know people hate DS but he's a good writer and while he's a douche a lot he's also spot on quite a bit. His job is to write opinion and it's what he does and I think he gets a bad rap for it. He ruffled feathers but I don't think he's a jerk just to be a jerk as much as people think. People right him off and it's a shame because he has a lot to offer and his call out of Ortiz is spot on and legit. Really? Because it seems like it was baseless at the time, remains unproven, and his defense includes making pedantic points about his hair color. Huh? It's not the roids that matter here. Two people have totally different accounts of the same interview. One has to be Lying. If you think it's Dan S ,fine.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Mar 28, 2015 16:47:51 GMT -5
Murphy's Law strikes again, almost always finding the weakest, or most vulnerable, point. The team, and most of the members of this board, certainly were right to oppose trading Swihart for Hamels.
However, it was not smart to create such a vulnerability by getting rid of both Butler and Lavarnway - who, BTW, the last I read, is about to make the Orioles as the backup catcher because Wieters isn't ready. And Wieters not being ready says something about when Vazquez might be ready if he has the TJ surgery.
The best option right now appears to be going with Hannigan and Quintero for the first couple of weeks, and then Swihart. This could be as exciting as 1975 with Swihart, Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo & the vets.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Mar 28, 2015 18:05:46 GMT -5
Talent evaluators following the Sox, however, maintain that the added exposure is tied to the team’s desire to trade him to alleviate their crowded outfield situation. And with a week left before the team breaks camp, there was talk here that the Sox were close to trading Craig, though that could not be confirmed Saturday afternoon. espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/42490/allen-craig-trade-rumors-increaseCraig appears to be coming back from his injuries whereas Victorino Is likely playing his last year with the Red Sox. I would much prefer that they either trade or release Victorino ( likely the same financial consequences) as he is on his last legs and blocking Castillo who is much younger and better player. Craig provides some protection at LF, 1B and DH at a reasonable cost. Victorino is at the end of his career and appears to be having a hard time accepting that he is no longer an everyday player.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Mar 28, 2015 18:07:02 GMT -5
The heck with keeping Swihart at AAA for 12 games/days/whatever and only thinking about finances.
Keep him at AAA until after the All-Star break and get him the development time he needs. Catch Hanigan 50 games, Quintero 40. Then bring up Swihart after the AS break and let him catch 50 of the last 70, with Hanigan catching the rest.
The issue isn't whether Hanigan can catch more than 80 games. The issue is whether or not he can catch at a pace slightly more intensive than that FOR HALF A YEAR. If Swihart is then ready to be brought up, Hanigan won't catch more than 80 games on the season.
Give Swihart his proper seasoning. If his absence before the AS break costs the Sox 2 or 3 games so be it. If those 2 or 3 games are the difference between the Sox making and not making the playoffs this year, so be it. Handle this kid right.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 28, 2015 18:58:17 GMT -5
Man, all this angst about Butler ... folks would really feel better about all of this if Butler were around? It's not entirely clear to me that Butler's a better option than Quintero. I mean, he might be, maybe even probably would be, but it's certainly not worth getting too worked up about. In fact, I've sort of talked myself off the ledge about the whole question of the backup catcher, anyway. Almost every backup catcher is terrible, so whatever ... at least the Sox had a good one before this happened.
Except, of course, Hanigan can't stay healthy. That's bad. So the Sox need to sign another Humberto Humberto type for AAA or acquire him rather cheaply.
This is a very bad development because Vazquez was very good, but not having Butler isn't really that big a part of it. I only hope Swihart develops quickly and is ready mid-year ...
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 28, 2015 19:05:52 GMT -5
heck of a start to the season. Good luck to Christian, if it is TJ malady. Realistically, it may be more than a year for him to get back to catching. It is time for BC to earn his keep. I, for one, don't want Swihart in the majors yet and I don't want a tandem of H2O (hanigan/humberto). Too much riding on this season. Time to get creative...part with assets and make a smart trade. You guys know more that I about who's available, but no way they should go into this season with those 2 on the 25 man.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 28, 2015 19:14:57 GMT -5
Yea, I don't think having Butler available would really change my opinion of the situation right now. The whole thing really comes down to how much of a drop off defensively/pitch framing it is from Vazquez to Hannigan/ ?, and how much it would/does effect the pitching staff, which is the obvious question. Vazquez being out weeks vs. months changes things in so much as it may be necessary to part with a piece to fix the situation. Not too much available on the last year of a deal catcher market, and they aren't going to trade for a "starter", who likely has a long deal left, if Hannigan is healthy and with Swihart likely half a season to a year away.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Mar 28, 2015 19:39:48 GMT -5
I think Brian and AncientSoxFogey are spot on.
After watching Bradley and Bogaerts struggles last year, the last thing the Red Sox should do is turn to Swihart before he shows he has mastered AAA. And there's really no reason to believe Butler is an acceptable Major league catcher.
The especially worrisome thing about this is that so much of Vasquez's value is in his arm. Sad development. You have to feel bad for him, suffering this just as he was about to begin the season as a starting MLB catcher. I can't imagine what he's feeling.
I really hope he has a full recovery.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 28, 2015 19:57:44 GMT -5
Yea, I don't think having Butler available would really change my opinion of the situation right now. The whole thing really comes down to how much of a drop off defensively/pitch framing it is from Vazquez to Hannigan/ ?, and how much it would/does effect the pitching staff, which is the obvious question. Vazquez being out weeks vs. months changes things in so much as it may be necessary to part with a piece to fix the situation. Not too much available on the last year of a deal catcher market, and they aren't going to trade for a "starter", who likely has a long deal left, if Hannigan is healthy and with Swihart likely half a season to a year away. i really think part of the process here has to be that Vasquez and/or swihart are wild cards going forward. Yes, everyone wants those 2 to be established major leaguers...but swihart has to continue to develop and Vasquez may have lost a year of development. There is big shift in the catcher paradigm by losing Vasquez. A trade for a starter should definately be considered. Worst case scenario by a trade, is that you have 3 major league catchers in the fold next year...you can always trade one away. We just spent beaucoup money this year for offense...we can't waste this year.
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