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5/28-5/31 Red Sox @ Rangers Series Thread
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Post by dirtywater on May 29, 2015 7:29:51 GMT -5
is "solid" even an actual scouting term? i feel like that could mean anything.
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Post by dirtywater on May 29, 2015 7:31:35 GMT -5
Eduardo was great last night. Caught bits and peices, but it looks like he belongs. Usually you see guys labor through a debut, but he had no fear. I think he has the stuff to be an ace, but he has to apply it consistently (which isn't always a given with these young guys).
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Post by jmei on May 29, 2015 7:57:21 GMT -5
I thought Rodrigiez looked very good, but he's not necessarily a finished product. The FB command could use some more polish, and he could have worked in his offspeed stuff more. He's still only 22, and I think there's still more there.
Of course, there's nothing wrong with getting that development at the MLB level rather than at Pawtucket, and it's likely he's one of the five best starting pitchers in the organization at the moment. Logistical issues aside (i.e., whose rotation turn lines up), I'd still prefer he replace Wright in the rotation rather than Kelly. There's also Masterson somewhere in the milieu, who is going to make a rehab start soon.
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Post by okin15 on May 29, 2015 8:00:22 GMT -5
it brakes me hart that Iglesias is gone cuz Bogaerts-Iglesias-Holt could have dominated starting all-star infield lineups for a decade. And it woulda been a sensation to see the 3 of them enter the Hall uv Fame together, perhaps in my lifetime. It could still happen, but Iglesias won't be wearing a Sox uniform. Alas, sentimentalism has no place in baseball today. WHAT? Do any of those three look like HOFers right now to you? Holt isn't even young and developmental any more. I still expect Bogaerts to have a great career, but it's tough to predict fame the way he's hitting. At least he's hitting that way at SS and not at 3B where he'd be a pretty dim spot in the lineup right now. And Iglesias is an enigma.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2015 8:01:44 GMT -5
Masterson has to be a reliever now, right? They've supposedly always liked him as a reliever, and there's no way he's ahead of any of the six current starters. Plus if there are two injuries they could turn to Johnson.
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Post by jmei on May 29, 2015 8:05:51 GMT -5
Masterson has to be a reliever now, right? They've supposedly always liked him as a reliever, and there's no way he's ahead of any of the six current starters. Plus if there are two injuries they could turn to Johnson. It might depend on how he looks in his rehab start. It's possible, though unlikely, that his velo bounces up a tic, and if that happens, they might give another couple turns in the rotation. But yeah, otherwise, I'm inclined to think he gets brought back as a swingman bullpen type.
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Post by dirtywater on May 29, 2015 8:05:52 GMT -5
Masterson has to be a reliever now, right? They've supposedly always liked him as a reliever, and there's no way he's ahead of any of the six current starters. Plus if there are two injuries they could turn to Johnson. I don't know why they are so afraid of demoting these guys, whether it be Pawtucket or the bullpen. It's nice to show confidence in young guys sometime - maybe with a guy like Joe Kelly... But Masterson's money is a sunk cost at this point and they need to either DFA or move to the bullpen.
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Post by okin15 on May 29, 2015 8:11:50 GMT -5
Probably in the minors until his rotation spot lines up with Joe Kelly's. You could easily put him in Kelly's spot the next time he's up by pitching him on the 3rd on 6 days rest, and moving Wright back two days to the 5th. That would also allow Wright to pitch in the bullpen once or twice in between. I'd like to see Kelly get a few starts in the minors, and then join our bullpen.
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Post by dirtywater on May 29, 2015 8:14:07 GMT -5
Probably in the minors until his rotation spot lines up with Joe Kelly's. You could easily put him in Kelly's spot the next time he's up by pitching him on the 3rd on 6 days rest, and moving Wright back two days to the 5th. That would also allow Wright to pitch in the bullpen once or twice in between. I'd like to see Kelly get a few starts in the minors, and then join our bullpen. If you're ultimately moving Kelly to the bullpen, I don't understand the purpose of keeping him stretched out as a starter in Pawtucket.
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2015 8:22:12 GMT -5
Masterson has to be a reliever now, right? They've supposedly always liked him as a reliever, and there's no way he's ahead of any of the six current starters. Plus if there are two injuries they could turn to Johnson. I don't know why they are so afraid of demoting these guys, whether it be Pawtucket or the bullpen. It's nice to show confidence in young guys sometime - maybe with a guy like Joe Kelly... But Masterson's money is a sunk cost at this point and they need to either DFA or move to the bullpen. Well, for the bullpen, it's pretty much a one-way street. It's really hard to go back and forth starting and relieving. You have to be cautious about those moves because you wind up without any options pretty quickly. i.e. What if Rodriguez and Johnson looked like Webster and Ranaudo last year?
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Post by soxcentral on May 29, 2015 8:23:39 GMT -5
I thought Rodrigiez looked very good, but he's not necessarily a finished product. The FB command could use some more polish, and he could have worked in his offspeed stuff more. He's still only 22, and I think there's still more there. You could say the same for Kelly, though. And I like Kelly quite a bit long term for this rotation, but he doesn't have a long track record as a starter and clearly needs refinement as much as any of the AAA lefties. I'd also like to see Kelly remain as a starter and think eventually he'll flourish.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2015 8:44:40 GMT -5
]Well, for the bullpen, it's pretty much a one-way street. It's really hard to go back and forth starting and relieving. Is it, though? Pitchers used to do it all the time. Twenty years ago, guys like Danny Darwin and Joe Hesketh and Paul Quantrill were doing it relatively effectively for the Red Sox. Again, Kelly's combination of athleticism an general averageness makes me think he can play the swingman role quite well. He probably wouldn't be able to go 7-8 innings after a month in the bullpen, but I really think he could go 70-80 pitches, and would probably be ramped up after three or four starts if he needed to be. It's a question of whether he should have a starting spot over Wright (don't feel strongly either way), and whether he's more useful in the bullpen than Robbie Ross or whoever the last man out there is (yes, he is).
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 29, 2015 10:34:57 GMT -5
GREAT game last night and Eduardo was magnificent! Did you all see that Ranger graphic before Rodriguez's 1st pitch which stated he has an " average fastball and solid change? Yeah, I did a double-take on that, too ... poor preparation by that crew. Unfortunately, I was working on some things while I was watching the game, so I couldn't pay close attention to the pitch selection. And the change is so close in velocity to the slider, I often could only track "fastball" and "not fastball." I thought he threw more sliders than change-ups, but according to pitchf/x at Brooks, he actually threw more CH than I remember (21) and only 12 sliders. His fastball was clearly his best pitch, but all three of them were effective.
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Post by mookiemagicfan on May 29, 2015 10:41:37 GMT -5
Swihart called a great game last night too. He deserves a lot of credit as well. Im sure the Rangers scoured that his CU was his best secondary pitch and were waiting for it, and Swihart mixed them up by throwing a lot more fastballs. Plus Swihart is really coming around with his bat. Hitting over 300 in his last 10 games, calling good games, and doesn't seem like his defense is so far behind Hanigans. (It is a ways behind but not as bad as initially thought) I'm very very glad the RS brass stuck by their guns by not being willing to include him in any trade. And ERod....heck yes!
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2015 10:54:44 GMT -5
]Well, for the bullpen, it's pretty much a one-way street. It's really hard to go back and forth starting and relieving. Is it, though? Pitchers used to do it all the time. Twenty years ago, guys like Danny Darwin and Joe Hesketh and Paul Quantrill were doing it relatively effectively for the Red Sox. Again, Kelly's combination of athleticism an general averageness makes me think he can play the swingman role quite well. He probably wouldn't be able to go 7-8 innings after a month in the bullpen, but I really think he could go 70-80 pitches, and would probably be ramped up after three or four starts if he needed to be. It's a question of whether he should have a starting spot over Wright (don't feel strongly either way), and whether he's more useful in the bullpen than Robbie Ross or whoever the last man out there is (yes, he is). I think relief pitchers are a lot better now than 20 years ago, so it's harder to stretch out and tighten up than it used to be maybe? It's pretty rare to do it now. I also don't think it's good for Kelly's development to be bounced around. That might be one reason why he isn't better than he is right now.
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Post by awall on May 29, 2015 10:57:16 GMT -5
Masterson has to be a reliever now, right? They've supposedly always liked him as a reliever, and there's no way he's ahead of any of the six current starters. Plus if there are two injuries they could turn to Johnson. It might depend on how he looks in his rehab start. It's possible, though unlikely, that his velo bounces up a tic, and if that happens, they might give another couple turns in the rotation. But yeah, otherwise, I'm inclined to think he gets brought back as a swingman bullpen type. At most. If they feel like he can be trusted more than Wright in the long-relief role. Unless something amazing happens to his velocity, I'd rather see him DFA'd.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2015 12:13:13 GMT -5
Some interesting tidbits from pitch/fx, which may well apply only to this game rather than ERod in general:
He had a tremendous velocity and movement range on his fastball. Velo (as measured at Brooks, which is a bit higher than the raw pitch/fx data) from 91.9 to 98.0, horizontal from about 2.3" to 9.7", vertical from about 5.0" to 12.1". The harder FBs tended to have more armside run and less rise, which is to say, they acted more like a two-seamer. But there's no question it's one pitch, as spin angle was quite consistent. He gets his great range of movement by varying rotation; he can throw it lights-out with average rotation, or take something off it but get great rotation. (Or at least he did in this game.)
In total contradiction to his scouting report, his average FB movement in this game was tremendous; it would rank about 35th out of 466 pitchers in the database I threw together a couple of years ago. When combined with his average velo in this game, it would rank him 89th in effectiveness, but I really think he benefited last night from changing speeds and movement. If he wasn't changing speeds so much, he'd rank higher in that metric but be less effective. (Another thing to ask Dan Brooks to add to BrooksBaseball.Net: make all of his variance estimates available in tabular form. I'd love to b able to redo that study with not just mean values for velocity and movement, but standard variations.)
In contrast to his FB, he threw his slider with amazing consistency. Ordinarily, when you get the slider rotation in the direction towards home down below 600 as he did (which is a true slider), which is to say you're getting the spin largely in a bullet fashion, you get a big range in spin axis, because in that orientation, changes in effective spin axis get amplified. It's not unusual to see slider spin axes scattered all over the range from 0 to 360. His were all between 130 and 200.
He indeed throws his slider and change at the precise same velocity. The change has a ton of armside run. The slider, on average, has no horizontal break, but looks like it runs away from lefties when compared to his FB. Ramon Ramirez had a very similar pair of pitches.
I don't think it's possible to be a long-term ace pitcher, a guy who is consistently among the best, without a pitch that breaks in the opposite direction as your FB. It's kind of puzzling that he doesn't throw a curve at all. If he could add even a slightly subpar curve to his arsenal, a pitch he could throw 5-10 times a game in carefully chosen situations, that could make a big difference.
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2015 12:29:33 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2015 12:37:52 GMT -5
Re the roster move and upcoming rotation ...
Peguero obviously replaces Nava for the time being, they simply swapped Ross and Hembree, which means they got ERod on the roster by adding a 6th starter and going to a 3-man bench by the Bianchi DFA, with ERod filling Shane's roster spot. I suspect they'll keep it this way until Shane is ready, at which point they'll know what they want to do with Kelly.
Rotation options ... they're committed to:
[Rodriguez] Wright Miley Kelly 6/1 vs Min, Buchholz 6/2 vs Min, very likely Porcello, but officially still TBD 6/3 vs Min, very likely ERod again 6/4 vs Min, if they were to start Wright, they'd lose the day-after knuckleball advantage, so I'm guessing Miley on regular rest. So Wright will probably be available in the pen after today.
6/5 vs Oak, here's where they decide. They can go:
Wright, Buchholz, Porcello Kelly, Buchholz, Porcello Wright, Kelly, Buchholz. (less likely, of course, but maybe if Porcello gets hit hard again)
The next day is an off day, so they'll pretty much have complete flexibility as to whether Kelly, ERod, or Wright is the odd man out.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2015 13:08:19 GMT -5
Sorry if someone else posted, but Chi Chi Gonzalez is now expected to start for Texas tomorrow. He takes the 40-man spot opened by the Peguero DFA/trade.
Obvious overreaction to the Red Sox showing off their debuting pitching prospect.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 29, 2015 13:16:35 GMT -5
Some interesting tidbits from pitch/fx, which may well apply only to this game rather than ERod in general: He had a tremendous velocity and movement range on his fastball. Velo (as measured at Brooks, which is a bit higher than the raw pitch/fx data) from 91.9 to 98.0, horizontal from about 2.3" to 9.7", vertical from about 5.0" to 12.1". The harder FBs tended to have more armside run and less rise, which is to say, they acted more like a two-seamer. But there's no question it's one pitch, as spin angle was quite consistent. He gets his great range of movement by varying rotation; he can throw it lights-out with average rotation, or take something off it but get great rotation. (Or at least he did in this game.) In total contradiction to his scouting report, his average FB movement in this game was tremendous; it would rank about 35th out of 466 pitchers in the database I threw together a couple of years ago. When combined with his average velo in this game, it would rank him 89th in effectiveness, but I really think he benefited last night from changing speeds and movement. If he wasn't changing speeds so much, he'd rank higher in that metric but be less effective. (Another thing to ask Dan Brooks to add to BrooksBaseball.Net: make all of his variance estimates available in tabular form. I'd love to b able to redo that study with not just mean values for velocity and movement, but standard variations.) In contrast to his FB, he threw his slider with amazing consistency. Ordinarily, when you get the slider rotation in the direction towards home down below 600 as he did (which is a true slider), which is to say you're getting the spin largely in a bullet fashion, you get a big range in spin axis, because in that orientation, changes in effective spin axis get amplified. It's not unusual to see slider spin axes scattered all over the range from 0 to 360. His were all between 130 and 200. He indeed throws his slider and change at the precise same velocity. The change has a ton of armside run. The slider, on average, has no horizontal break, but looks like it runs away from lefties when compared to his FB. Ramon Ramirez had a very similar pair of pitches. I don't think it's possible to be a long-term ace pitcher, a guy who is consistently among the best, without a pitch that breaks in the opposite direction as your FB. It's kind of puzzling that he doesn't throw a curve at all. If he could add even a slightly subpar curve to his arsenal, a pitch he could throw 5-10 times a game in carefully chosen situations, that could make a big difference. Good stuff, thanks ... I was noticing that last point, too. I mean, relative to his FB and change, the slider moves the other direction, but it actually doesn't move horizontally at all. I guess it's possible he could change the tilt of his slider just a bit to get a little glove-side movement, but it does seem like eventually he's going to have to get something to get inside to right-handers. His natural arm-side run seems strong enough that I doubt a cutter would do it, but perhaps ... seems like a curveball would be tough to add at this stage. Of course, this was from one game, so I guess it's possible this isn't completely typical for him, but it's interesting ...
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 29, 2015 13:17:51 GMT -5
Sorry if someone else posted, but Chi Chi Gonzalez is now expected to start for Texas tomorrow. He takes the 40-man spot opened by the Peguero DFA/trade. Obvious overreaction to the Red Sox showing off their debuting pitching prospect. I've always thought he was overrated.
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Post by telson13 on May 29, 2015 13:40:24 GMT -5
Great defense, ladies and gentlemen we have ourselves an ace. Rodriguez has a nasty slider!! Gotta love the FB velo. A full run better than the games next lefty. And barely 1 BB/9 in AAA. Kid's a star in the making if the slider improves. His control is already good and his command is surprisingly solid. And the swings against him are just awful. Seems to thrive under the lights, too. He's going to be a must-see in Fenway. Is it too much to hope for the fun of sitting in the bleachers during Pedro's heyday? OK, I jest...but is it? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/a-few-notes-on-eduardo-rodriguezs-velocity/
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Post by Guidas on May 29, 2015 13:56:16 GMT -5
Still miffed at Peguero over JBJ. I really feel like the org is short-changing him, will trade him soon and then he becomes above MLB average somewhere else. Whereas here we could have Hanley at 1st or DH next year and and OF of Castillio JBJ and Mookie and fly balls will never find the grass.
Perguero is Wily Mo Pena without as much plate discipline (and if you ever saw Wily Mo, he had a 30% or so K rate ).
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nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on May 29, 2015 14:00:08 GMT -5
Still miffed at Peguero over JBJ. I really feel like the org is short-changing him, will trade him soon and then he becomes above MLB average somewhere else. Whereas here we could have Hanley at 1st or DH next year and and OF of Castillio JBJ and Mookie and fly balls will never find the grass. Perguero is Wily Mo Pena without as much plate discipline (and if you ever saw Wily Mo, he had a 30% or so K rate ). Peguero is a last ditch sub, and JBJ gets to play every day in Pawtucket. JBJ still could use some offensive seasoning, so it's fine with me as long as Rusney is healthy.
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