|
Post by bluechip on Nov 14, 2012 4:33:11 GMT -5
Rumor says Nolasco is the next out the door in Miami. He has had great peripherals for some time now, but mediocre era. He can probably be acquired cheaply, and serve as a great back end of the rotation (I'd rather him than Lackey).
What are your thoughts? What would it take?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2012 9:12:54 GMT -5
He's a guy for whom FIP/xFIP doesn't hold up real well. In 1113 career IP, his ERA is 4.49 and his FIP/xFIP is 3.83/3.78. That split is due to a high BABIP (.309) and a low LOB% (68.3%, 70-72% league average). For whatever reason, he gives up more hits on ball in play than average and seems to struggle with runners on base. Over a sample that large, it's pretty unlikely that it's random chance but rather something we can expect to continue into the future.
Not only that, but his strikeout rate has dropped three years in a row (8.39 -> 6.47 -> 5.89 K/9) and his walk rate has increased three years in a row (1.88 -> 1.92 -> 2.21 BB/9). In a related development, his fastball velocity has declined three years in a row as well (91.2 -> 90.6 -> 90.1). He'll be 30 next year and is only signed through 2013 for $11.5m (although only $8.8m AAV), which is a lot to pay for a back-end starter (and you know the Marlins aren't kicking in any money).
I'd rather take my chances with Lackey, to be honest. If we wanted a back-end starter, I would have taken my chances with Scott Baker coming off TJ surgery (just signed for one year, $5m by the Cubs). Hell, the way the market is developing, you could probably get Dan Haren or Ryan Dempster for what Nolasco will make next year.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2012 15:26:28 GMT -5
Pass
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 14, 2012 15:50:57 GMT -5
Never been a fan. Anyone that has watched him a lot and can give a strong opinion here?
The ONLY player I like now on the Marlins is Stanton. Otherwise.....as stated.....I pass.
Oh and by-the-way, Jeff Loria is a "blank"!! Dade County and Miami should be outraged.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Nov 14, 2012 16:36:40 GMT -5
I really don't think he would do as well as Lackey will this year.
Yes, we need SP help, but we don't need to get more average to below average starters.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 20:48:24 GMT -5
he eats alot of innings, but his ERA stood that 4.48 in one of the best pitching divisions in baseball. His stuff has declined and to me, his ERA would go out of control pitching in the AL East. I'd stay away from him.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 15, 2012 10:51:38 GMT -5
Pass. High salary, low upside; what's the point?
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,845
|
Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2012 15:45:00 GMT -5
Look at the declining K rate. The only way i take this guy's contract is if its part of a Stanton trade.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 15, 2012 15:54:15 GMT -5
I guess I'm not the only one who's gotten burned in fantasy by drafting Rickey "obvious breakout candidate" Nolasco.
"Obvious breakout candidate" turns into "perennial disappointment" so fast, doesn't it?
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Nov 15, 2012 16:41:29 GMT -5
I'd rather have Jackson for whom you don't have to trade.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Nov 15, 2012 17:01:30 GMT -5
Well. Ricky Nolasco has played with a pretty terrible Marlins defense. He has had to pitch in front of Cantu, Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, and Logan Morrison, among other terrible defensive players. A good defense could do wonders for his ERA.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 15, 2012 18:17:46 GMT -5
He also pitches in a pitcher friendly NL park. Not buying it.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 15, 2012 18:54:13 GMT -5
Nolasco has pitched for the same team as Josh "2.87 ERA from 2010-2012" Johnson. It's not like they stopped playing defense when Nolasco steps to the mound.
|
|