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Post by larrycook on Jun 6, 2015 0:10:26 GMT -5
Seattle is really struggling offensively. Maybe they would be interested in a dh type like Ortiz or Napoli?
We could throw in Bradley as well since Seattle is in desperate need of a lead off hitter not named Logan Morrison! Ouch!
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Post by telson13 on Jun 6, 2015 0:59:44 GMT -5
Castillo, possibly not. Victorino, I'm pretty certain. And while you're right on the surface, the reality is that there's a lot more at play than simple statistical performance. As a young player, his future value either to the team directly, or as a trade chip, is to some extent tied to his ML (and not AAA at this point) performance. He's earned a *real* shot to see if he can stick as a regular on a second go-around, unless his AAA revival has rebuilt his trade value (and I doubt it has). Of the three players you mention, Bradley has played the best this year offensively and, obviously, defensively. All things otherwise equal, properly assessing his worth to the team is the most pressing of the three (Victorino is gone and Castillo is locked up), since he is the one at a real crossroads, as well as being the one with the most potential future value. I think you're dismissing Victorino too easily, as he's been pretty great this year both at the plate and in the field. All the underlying skills are still there-- his contact rate is still elite, he's swinging at a career-low number of pitches outside the zone, he had started driving the ball before this latest DL stint, and his defense is still pretty much as good as it gets in a corner outfield spot. I'm fine bringing Bradley up once the team has completely thrown in the towel for the reasons you discuss above. But so long as the team is trying to win games (which, considering the state of the division, should be at least until the trade deadline), I'm going with my best players, which means Bradley likely comes up only as an injury replacement. All good points about Victorino. Again, the main concern is his health; he may be making contact and tightening his zone, but his results (and SSS and stochastic variation of course are a caveat) aren't all that impressive even when he has played. He needs to stay on the field. I think a guy hitting .350 with nearly a .900 OPS in AAA and who is probably the best defensive OF in baseball probably deserves another real shot. But, I do see your point about sticking with a veteran if it's swim or sink to the bottom time. As an aside, nobody's mentioned Pedroia's offensive revival this season...though his defense has been average by most metrics. I still think this team is capable of outstanding play. If Ramirez keeps recovering, Napoli has another hot streak, Pedroia keeps doing his thing, young guys keep up with incremental improvement...this is a dangerous team. Especially if Rodriguez keeps proving he's no flash in the pan, and Buchholz does what he's done all year. Miley had another very good game tonight. Porcello had a nice game and tough loss the other night. The rotation is suddenly looking *good*, not just adequate (though xFIP pretty much said that before). One quality win streak and they're over .500.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 6, 2015 1:02:53 GMT -5
Seattle is really struggling offensively. Maybe they would be interested in a dh type like Ortiz or Napoli? We could throw in Bradley as well since Seattle is in desperate need of a lead off hitter not named Logan Morrison! Ouch! Who would you target in Seattle? Frankly, I wouldn't want to see JBJ traded at all, unless he returns Taijuan Walker (who's also had a rough big-league trial). Too much talent to give up on so early, unless it returns a similar level prospect.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jun 6, 2015 3:32:27 GMT -5
Unless you're already in full sell mode there should be no reason to deal Napoli. There is no suitable replacement. Hanley looks ideal on paper, but if you're expecting anything better than a massive dropoff defensively you're going to be disappointed. Give him work in the offseason, but Hanley wouldn't just pick it up like that.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 6, 2015 10:25:31 GMT -5
If more articles like Edes' come out attacking Hanley, I bet he stars logging extra practice hours out in LF.
Look how quick Panda changed to full time LHH after refusing to in SF for years.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 7, 2015 8:56:40 GMT -5
If more articles like Edes' come out attacking Hanley, I bet he stars logging extra practice hours out in LF. Look how quick Panda changed to full time LHH after refusing to in SF for years. Are you implying Sandoval switched because of all the articles criticizing him? Because that's crazy. He switched because he was performing terribly, not because reporters pointed it out. And that's the same reason Hanley should put as much time as possible practicing LF.
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Post by rafael on Jul 8, 2015 16:41:31 GMT -5
I was wondering which teams would be good fits for a Napoli trade, so I did a little research using Fangraphs stats to see what teams may be looking for upgrades at 1B and DH. I looked only at teams that are 5.0 games back or less to a playoff spot. The following teams' 1B/DH offensive production has been below-average by wRC+ :
Angels DH -0.3 WAR 71 wRC+ Astros DH -0.2 WAR 92 wRC+ Astros 1B 0.1 WAR 92 wRC+ Cardinals 1B 0.1 WAR 82 wRC+ Nationals 1B -0.6 WAR 81 wRC+ Pirates 1B -1.0 WAR 91 wRC+ Rays 1B -2.2 WAR 68 wRC+ Tigers DH -0.4 WAR 95 wRC+ Twins 1B -0.3 WAR 92 wRC+
Of the above teams, the Astros, Cardinals, Nationals are leading their division, while the Angels, Pirates and Twins are ahead in the wild card race. It's hard to see any of those teams being sellers at the deadline and likely all of them will be buyers. It's unlikely that the Nats, Tigers and Twins are going to be looking for a 1B/DH upgrade, as Ryan Zimmerman and Joe Mauer man 1B for the Nats and Twins respectively and the Tigers have a Miggy/V-Mart combo at 1B and DH.
If the Sox are out of the playoff race by the deadline, then he'd probably fetch a return quite similar, albeit better to what the Twins got in the Kendrys Morales trade last July, as Napoli has hit better so far this season that Morales did last season at the time he was traded. That is the only trade in the past couple of years of a struggling 1B/DH close to the deadline. If we are in the race by the deadline, something that is looking more likely every day that goes by, I would like to see Napoli traded for middle relief pitching, as it is IMO the biggest problem with the Red Sox and would not cost any top prospects. In that case, it would be highly unlikely to strike a trade with the Rays. To such a trade occur, the other team in the trade must have a good bullpen, otherwise they would be closing a hole but opening another. Here is the bullpen production of the teams mentioned above:
Angels 2.1 WAR 3.38 FIP 3.90 xFIP (20th in xFIP) Astros 2.0 WAR 3.40 FIP 3.38 xFIP (2nd in xFIP) Cardinals 2.7 WAR 3.27 FIP 3.72 xFIP (15th in xFIP) Nationals 2.3 WAR 3.32 FIP 3.54 xFIP (9th in xFIP) Pirates 2.0 WAR 3.36 FIP 3.50 xFIP (7th in xFIP) Rays -0.4 WAR 4.32 FIP 3.99 xFIP (25th in xFIP) Tigers -0.5 WAR 4.20 FIP 4.27 xFIP (29th in xFIP) Twins 0.7 WAR 4.08 FIP 4.32 xFIP (30th in xFIP)
So the Rays, Tigers and Twins are definitely not fits. That leaves the Astros and Pirates as the best fits and the Angels and Cardinals as reasonable fits too.
English is not my first language, so i apologize if it is not as good as of the average poster in this forum. Feel free to criticize my analysis.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2015 17:24:15 GMT -5
I just want to point out that Napoli is a career 116 wRC+ hitter in the first half, and a career 139 wRC+ hitter in the second half. Would it really surprise anyone that much if he were one of our better hitters in the second half of the season?
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 18:36:38 GMT -5
I appreciate the well-thought-out research and analysis. I generally agree with the teams you've identified as potential fits for Napoli, and the comparison to Morales is very appropriate. I am skeptical that the Red Sox would be looking for a reliever in the majors, though. It's rare that a team buys and sells at the same, as would be the case in a Napoli-for-established-reliever trade.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 8, 2015 18:39:39 GMT -5
I appreciate the well-thought-out research and analysis. I generally agree with the teams you've identified as potential fits for Napoli, and the comparison to Morales is very appropriate. I am skeptical that the Red Sox would be looking for a reliever in the majors, though. It's rare that a team buys and sells at the same, as would be the case in a Napoli-for-established-reliever trade. Yeah it might be different if Ortiz were currently saying "yeah I love playing first base, go ahead and put me there all you want"... but he's not, so there's not really a replacement for Napoli. The Red Sox need him to be good again (and if he's not going to be good again, why would anyone else want him?)
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 19:18:22 GMT -5
Yeah, what I should have spelled out is that if they're trading Napoli, it's probably because they're out of the race, in which case getting an established MLB reliever as the return is less likely because (a) contending teams generally don't give up good MLB relievers and (b) because they'd be less likely to want an MLB reliever in return.
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Post by rafael on Jul 9, 2015 13:37:55 GMT -5
I think that they could give the bulk of the playing time at 1B to Holt or use De Aza/Nava as platoon mates. Not sure if any of those would be huge upgrades to Nap, perhaps no upgrade at all, but a good middle reliever would be an enormous boost to our very bad bullpen.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 9, 2015 15:23:40 GMT -5
Napoli's trade value is so low that his second half upside trumps his market value. No point in trading him.
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Post by arzjake on Jul 13, 2015 15:31:10 GMT -5
Napoli's trade value is so low that his second half upside trumps his market value. No point in trading him. After the series vs NY, not only has the hitting gone south but so has the defense. No reason to make that error friday night vs NY which gets you out of an inning and might have given the Sox a chance to win that game. Time for Nap to be sent out to pasture. Thanks for 13.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 27, 2015 21:24:43 GMT -5
Napoli has been connected in trade rumors with Pittsburgh. Unless the Pirates plan to platoon Alvarez at 1B, I don't see how Napoli helps the Bucs. At any rate, it looks like a low level prospect heading this way.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 27, 2015 21:58:29 GMT -5
Napoli's trade value is so low that his second half upside trumps his market value. No point in trading him. If only there were some way in which other teams could become acquainted with this concept of "second half upside."
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2015 22:07:45 GMT -5
Honestly, if the Red Sox were in contention or quasi-contention, these kinds of buy-low opportunities are what I might try for. Think Steve Cishek, Aramis Ramirez, etc. They aren't great bets to be huge upgrades, but they also won't cost much, and more often than you'd think, you get a nice bounce-back performance. Think Headley or Peavy last year. That's why I think there's a decent shot Napoli gets moved, albeit for a pretty minimal return. I could see the Pirates, Cardinals or Astros in the mix.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 30, 2015 8:07:40 GMT -5
Moss to STL hurts the nascent Napoli trade market.
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Post by thegoo13 on Jul 30, 2015 8:41:17 GMT -5
Moss to STL hurts the nascent Napoli trade market. I don't know? They needed a LH bat to pair at 1B with Reynolds. Napoli wasn't a fit for them, so doubt they were ever an option... I would have to think it's a small window to move Nap and De Aza but there is potential if nothing else to improve a team's bench. The Mets come to mind. They are tough to trade with these days obviously though.
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