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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by slam761 on Jan 2, 2016 21:20:16 GMT -5
Is anyone else starting to think Justin Upton might be worth it for LF? I always figured he'd cost too much for the Sox to be interested, but it sounds like he's not drawing much interest at all so far so his price could drop significantly. If we can lower the cost even more by giving him an opt-out or 2, I think he'd be a great addition.
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Post by notguilty on Jan 2, 2016 21:34:12 GMT -5
Is anyone else starting to think Justin Upton might be worth it for LF? I always figured he'd cost too much for the Sox to be interested, but it sounds like he's not drawing much interest at all so far so his price could drop significantly. If we can lower the cost even more by giving him an opt-out or 2, I think he'd be a great addition. Wouldn't have minded him as a buy low candidate, but he received a qualifying offer, so the Sox would lose the 12th round pick. I suspect that makes it a non-starter. Plus I expect him to get a 3-4 year deal anyway, though probably not the $100m+ he's been hoping for.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2016 22:44:55 GMT -5
Is anyone else starting to think Justin Upton might be worth it for LF? I always figured he'd cost too much for the Sox to be interested, but it sounds like he's not drawing much interest at all so far so his price could drop significantly. If we can lower the cost even more by giving him an opt-out or 2, I think he'd be a great addition. Yes. forum.soxprospects.com/post/184131The Castillo money is a problem, though. I loved the way he played LF but the bat still is a concern, esp with so little loft in that swing. Upton would clearly be a better solution. To make it work, however, the FO would have to sell another team on Castillo being a league average (or better) CF and move him without giving up much, or any, salary, THEN find a way to sign Upton for 4 years (yet another opt out opportunity?) or fewer. If they were really going to jettison Castillo and eat cash on his deal, though, I think they would've done it sooner for Heyward and moved Mookie to LF. But yes, Upton's higher OBP and the potential of 30+ HRs with good to above ave LF defense is very tempting.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 2, 2016 23:46:40 GMT -5
Is anyone else starting to think Justin Upton might be worth it for LF? I always figured he'd cost too much for the Sox to be interested, but it sounds like he's not drawing much interest at all so far so his price could drop significantly. If we can lower the cost even more by giving him an opt-out or 2, I think he'd be a great addition. Yes. forum.soxprospects.com/post/184131The Castillo money is a problem, though. I loved the way he played LF but the bat still is a concern, esp with so little loft in that swing. Upton would clearly be a better solution. To make it work, however, the FO would have to sell another team on Castillo being a league average (or better) CF and move him without giving up much, or any, salary, THEN find a way to sign Upton for 4 years (yet another opt out opportunity?) or fewer. If they were really going to jettison Castillo and eat cash on his deal, though, I think they would've done it sooner for Heyward and moved Mookie to LF. But yes, Upton's higher OBP and the potential of 30+ HRs with good to above ave LF defense is very tempting. I think they might need more of a stop gap solution than losing a draft pick and committing big bucks to an already high payroll, especially when there will be some supreme free agents after that 2018 season. Castillo may or may not be the temporary answer in LF. If he is, they don't have to do anything. If he isn't, perhaps they find a stop gap in a deal - Andre Ethier could be a possibility. I don't think corner OF would be that hard to find. The bottom line is that by 2017 Andrew Benintendi will be the long-term solution in LF as JBJ should hit enough to hang onto the CF job and Betts is the long-term solution in RF who could be moved to CF when the Sox sign Bryce Harper after 2018
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2016 15:57:58 GMT -5
First.....I acknowledge this is not necessary for many of us, but man I like Cliff Lee. I would love to see the Sox work out a contract with him with incentives. This article was interesting today: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/latest-cliff-lee-free-agent-comeback.htmlDo we have to have Lee to be successful? Probably not, but Lee at 80% would be an upgrade in my thinking. His command of the strike zone is amazing. No idea what kind of contract would entice him, but I would like to see them try. Your thoughts?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 3, 2016 16:03:12 GMT -5
My thoughts are always the same. Let someone like Owens or Johnson get their shot at becoming the next Cliff Lee. More to the point, at the 10,000 foot level, do the Sox need a 10th potential starter?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2016 16:09:33 GMT -5
My thoughts are always the same. Let someone like Owens or Johnson get their shot at becoming the next Cliff Lee. More to the point, at the 10,000 foot level, do the Sox need a 10th potential starter? Norm.....my man.....I have a big crush on Cliff Lee!! Actually I understand, but Norm......I love Cliff Lee!!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 3, 2016 16:16:32 GMT -5
Don't think we're a fit because we already are putting faith in too many guys with questionable innings ceilings.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,839
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2016 16:20:14 GMT -5
Don't think we're a fit because we already are putting faith in too many guys with questionable innings ceilings. I do, Nomar, rationally know that I'm wrong. Just giving Norm a hard time!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2016 16:22:23 GMT -5
First.....I acknowledge this is not necessary for many of us, but man I like Cliff Lee. I would love to see the Sox work out a contract with him with incentives. This article was interesting today: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/latest-cliff-lee-free-agent-comeback.htmlDo we have to have Lee to be successful? Probably not, but Lee at 80% would be an upgrade in my thinking. His command of the strike zone is amazing. No idea what kind of contract would entice him, but I would like to see them try. Your thoughts? If nobody steps up to be the #2 starter, then I'd take a chance on him. I doubt he'd want to pitch much more than half a year. Hopefully Buchholz pitches well and stays healthy and E-Rod takes a step forward. If that's the case the Sox would have a formidable top 3 and wouldn't need to take a risk on Lee. If Buchholz is injured and/or E-Rod takes a step back and Porcello and Kelly repeat their mediocrity then the Sox should take a financial risk if they like what they see from Lee. Otherwise they'll be spending some serious prospects on a starter if the price of Shelby Miller is any indication at all. I'd rather gamble on a Cliff Lee and yeah, it would be a gamble. Let's just hope that two of Buchholz, E-Rod, Kelly, and Porcello render this a moot point.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 3, 2016 18:05:25 GMT -5
Don't think we're a fit because we already are putting faith in too many guys with questionable innings ceilings. I do, Nomar, rationally know that I'm wrong. Just giving Norm a hard time! I hear ya. I also think if Upton falls through the cracks he may be of interest. He's a good power bat good for a 130 wRC+ which we can really use once Ortiz is gone.
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Post by fan72 on Jan 3, 2016 18:26:32 GMT -5
I'm looking forward to our outfield defense not sure upton would be a good fit.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Jan 3, 2016 22:36:12 GMT -5
I'm looking forward to our outfield defense not sure upton would be a good fit. +8 DRS and 2.8 UZR in LF this year, and average the year before. Definitely won't kill us out there.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2016 1:03:07 GMT -5
First.....I acknowledge this is not necessary for many of us, but man I like Cliff Lee. I would love to see the Sox work out a contract with him with incentives. This article was interesting today: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/latest-cliff-lee-free-agent-comeback.htmlDo we have to have Lee to be successful? Probably not, but Lee at 80% would be an upgrade in my thinking. His command of the strike zone is amazing. No idea what kind of contract would entice him, but I would like to see them try. Your thoughts? If nobody steps up to be the #2 starter, then I'd take a chance on him. I doubt he'd want to pitch much more than half a year. Hopefully Buchholz pitches well and stays healthy and E-Rod takes a step forward. If that's the case the Sox would have a formidable top 3 and wouldn't need to take a risk on Lee. If Buchholz is injured and/or E-Rod takes a step back and Porcello and Kelly repeat their mediocrity then the Sox should take a financial risk if they like what they see from Lee. Otherwise they'll be spending some serious prospects on a starter if the price of Shelby Miller is any indication at all. I'd rather gamble on a Cliff Lee and yeah, it would be a gamble. Let's just hope that two of Buchholz, E-Rod, Kelly, and Porcello render this a moot point. I'm skeptical that he'd be available to sign when all those things seem obvious. I have very little interest and I bet he feels the same. He's not going to want to compete with 9 other guys. He's going to want to re-establish his value and get another contract.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Jan 4, 2016 2:21:40 GMT -5
Reports are the Sox aren't looking to make any more deals. Not surprising after they learned Swihart was only being seen as a complimentary piece in deals for top arms. The Sawdust Twins, Hanley and Panda proving untradeable doesn't help DDo's position either. They've got many pieces of their roster that must reestablish, or establish their true value. The three above, along with Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Castillo, and likely JBJ don't seen to have the kind of value on the market that we perceive them to have. It's worth investing a half season, if for no other reason than to gain value enhancement for all these roster pieces. I think cases for increased value can be made for all and that gain should be realized before any deals are considered.
They don't need to win the offseason, they need to be in a position to compete. They are there by any competitive measure; and it will be worth going into the season with this group, then make any required adjustments mid year.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,839
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 4, 2016 8:33:09 GMT -5
Reports are the Sox aren't looking to make any more deals. Not surprising after they learned Swihart was only being seen as a complimentary piece in deals for top arms. The Sawdust Twins, Hanley and Panda proving untradeable doesn't help DDo's position either. They've got many pieces of their roster that must reestablish, or establish their true value. The three above, along with Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Castillo, and likely JBJ don't seen to have the kind of value on the market that we perceive them to have. It's worth investing a half season, if for no other reason than to gain value enhancement for all these roster pieces. I think cases for increased value can be made for all and that gain should be realized before any deals are considered. They don't need to win the offseason, they need to be in a position to compete. They are there by any competitive measure; and it will be worth going into the season with this group, then make any required adjustments mid year. Love that name! Hopefully it WON'T be appropriate this season. But very catchy!
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 4, 2016 9:20:22 GMT -5
It's amazing we're talking about Justin Upton getting only 100 mil when Carl Crawford got, what 144 mil & was a year older when we signed him. Upton has a more complete game by far than CC.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2016 9:22:19 GMT -5
Reports are the Sox aren't looking to make any more deals. Not surprising after they learned Swihart was only being seen as a complimentary piece in deals for top arms. The Sawdust Twins, Hanley and Panda proving untradeable doesn't help DDo's position either. They've got many pieces of their roster that must reestablish, or establish their true value. The three above, along with Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Castillo, and likely JBJ don't seen to have the kind of value on the market that we perceive them to have. It's worth investing a half season, if for no other reason than to gain value enhancement for all these roster pieces. I think cases for increased value can be made for all and that gain should be realized before any deals are considered. They don't need to win the offseason, they need to be in a position to compete. They are there by any competitive measure; and it will be worth going into the season with this group, then make any required adjustments mid year. In time, neither will the pitchers that are supposedly worth 100 WAR worth of prospects. You really don't have any idea what anyone who has not been traded is actually worth. It's probable that the Red Sox didn't want to trade any of them. The pitcher who supposedly is worth a deal with Swihart as a secondary piece wasn't traded so I imagine every team thought they were on drugs when asking for the moon and the stars and Mookie and Xander.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Jan 4, 2016 9:52:12 GMT -5
Reports are the Sox aren't looking to make any more deals. Not surprising after they learned Swihart was only being seen as a complimentary piece in deals for top arms. The Sawdust Twins, Hanley and Panda proving untradeable doesn't help DDo's position either. They've got many pieces of their roster that must reestablish, or establish their true value. The three above, along with Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Castillo, and likely JBJ don't seen to have the kind of value on the market that we perceive them to have. It's worth investing a half season, if for no other reason than to gain value enhancement for all these roster pieces. I think cases for increased value can be made for all and that gain should be realized before any deals are considered. They don't need to win the offseason, they need to be in a position to compete. They are there by any competitive measure; and it will be worth going into the season with this group, then make any required adjustments mid year. In time, neither will the pitchers that are supposedly worth 100 WAR worth of prospects. You really don't have any idea what anyone who has not been traded is actually worth. It's probable that the Red Sox didn't want to trade any of them. The pitcher who supposedly is worth a deal with Swihart as a secondary piece wasn't traded so I imagine every team thought they were on drugs when asking for the moon and the stars and Mookie and Xander. Agreed, although I think they may have simply asked high, expecting counter offers, and instead, all suitors went FA shopping. I think a few teams hoped for the moon, planned for a good return, and in the end got nada. Of course all now say, "we just never saw a return we liked." And now they all play chicken with the agents, hoping hitters drop to their price point. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out over the next month.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 7, 2016 10:31:40 GMT -5
It's amazing we're talking about Justin Upton getting only 100 mil when Carl Crawford got, what 144 mil & was a year older when we signed him. Upton has a more complete game by far than CC. Crawford was coming off seasons of 5.9 and 7.7 fWAR when he signed. Upton's been a 3-4 fWAR player the past three seasons. Crawford just peaked at the right time whereas Upton peaked in 2011.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 8, 2016 10:30:10 GMT -5
A better comp I guess would be Jayson Werth. He was coming off 2 4.5 war years & signed the 7/126 contract at age 31. Shin Soo Choo had around 4 war for 2 years before he signed 7/130 at age 30. Upton in only 28 so that may help him a bit. I believe the owners are shying away from these contracts. They are looking more at the Pence/Gordon type deals. There is a laundry list of 9 figure deals signed in recent years that these teams would not have done in hindsight.
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Post by mandelbro on Jan 8, 2016 11:38:22 GMT -5
Is the radio silence concerning Upton really lack of interest though, or an indication that he's not going to make big money? Or is it more about waiting to find out what Chris Davis money is?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 8, 2016 12:13:24 GMT -5
I think Davis is the last big domino to fall. If he goes back to Baltimore, I think CWS signs Cespedes and Upton would kind of be up for grabs. I could see the Angels sneak in there but we'll see.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 8, 2016 12:30:37 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 8, 2016 22:32:47 GMT -5
Peter Abraham, in the Globe a few days ago, argued that we must trade Hanley, because it's impossible that he can play an adequate 1B. Now, the latter part of that assertion (based, among other things, on cherry-picking his two worst seasons at SS while ignoring the fact that he was only -5 R / 150 GS his last two seasons there) is very open to challenge, but even if it's true, trading Ramirez doesn't seem smart. Abraham believes that the Sox would have to eat half of his contract. Trading him now would therefore result in -$33M of value. If we can get more than $33M of value from him over three years, keeping him is smarter. Let's say that you keep him, and discover by the end of ST that Travis Shaw has to be the regular 1B. Ramirez is relegated to a backup DH role, and late-inning duty at 1B after pinch-hitting and pinch-running. Papi has averaged $20M of value the last two years as a DH (and that's a conservative estimate using what I believe is too small a positional adjustment for DH). Between Papi injuries and platooning, it's not unreasonable to think that Hanley might have $3M of value if used as a backup DH. That leaves $30M of value that you need to get from him over the last two years of his contract, in order to make keeping him smarter than dumping him. Before I did this analysis, I was planning to assert that Hanley could be fairly expected to be 80% to 85% as valuable as Ortiz at DH. But it turns out that he only needs to be 75%. And that's without adjusting for inflation of $/WAR. So, with a worst-case scenario for Ramirez's 2016 value, and a triply-conservative estimate of his 2017-2018 value (conservative about the value of a DH, Hanley's performance, and any change in the $ value of WAR over the next three years), it still makes just as much sense to keep him as deal him. The practical way of looking at this is that they will need to fill the DH spot after Papi retires, and they have absolutely nothing in the way of in-house candidates. So, as others have speculated, they might be expected next winter to go hard after Bautista or Encarnacion. Let's say either one will cost $20M a year. Who would you rather have, Hanley at $22M or one of those at $42M? And it seems clear that having Hanley succeed Papi at DH was part of the plan all along, and was factored into his salary.
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