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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by bstrong on Jul 21, 2015 23:38:19 GMT -5
I am one like many who have been ticked-off with underachievements of the team this year. Though all the moves this past off-season moves seemed attractive enough on paper to me,I can do nothing now but shake it off and remain optimistic as a fan and a perennial season ticket holder. Yes....there are still plenty of games remaining where a comeback may be in store,but I am already planning for next year.
So onward to points of interest and my recommendations that may help fix the team...........FA's to be: Victorino,Napoli,Breslow,and Masterson will very tough to move in trades. These guys will bring minimal return if any at all,nevertheless still shop them hard and let any remainder of them go at season's end. Though not a FA this year,A.Craig may be hard to give away also,he on the otherhand would be a worthwhile piece to keep around for another chance if he were to still remain with the team.
Other key moves I would recommend the Front Office to consider and follow through with are as follows:
*D.Ortiz has got to go. His contract $$$ on the books just don't provide enough of a substantial return anymore to have him kept around any longer,even with his $$$ friendly options for the next 2 yrs. His legacy will never be forgotten,but it's time move on.
*H.Ramirez to the DH is a must,so his Fielding can be removed from play permanently once and for all. A major decrease in injury is most likely too.
*P.Sandoval at 3B is OK for now.....if he continues to flounder in the field,then the F.O. should consider moving him to 1B.....he may argue that notion,but I think he will agree it's what's best for the team in the near future if that may be the case. He is a talented enough hitter to improve himself for next season, so I am not concerned with him in that regard.
*The Sox should resign A.DeAza with a 3yr./18-20M deal. He and B.Holt have proven their worth this season and both should be rewarded for their spark and efforts when the team needed guys to step up.
*Offer B.Holt a raise and restructure his Contract. I would give a 3-4yr./15-16M deal for being the Super UTIL he is and away from the Marketplace,even though He and DeAza could reap a decent return as trade bait.
*Obviously,I feel the Bullpen needs the attention 1st while the getting is good. It is in dire need of reconditioning for the future,it should begin immediately before the trade deadline expires. The Sox need to be all over C.Kimbrel......they would idiotic if they didn't. Enough said with that. I would like to see the F.O. take advantage and get a rare but possible package deal from the Padres involving the acquisitions of both T.Ross and C.Kimbrel. Sacrificing some the farm is going to have to take place sooner or later. Personally,this stands out as a prime opportunity for that to take place. A package of {M.Margot,B.Johnson,M.Barnes,J.Guerra,and maybe someone like a T.Buttrey} may prove to irrestible for the Padres to turn down. Until 2015 season's end, the farm should also be given more PT to get more of a taste of what they have hand for next season.
After Kimbrel.....I'm going after LH relief to compliment T.Layne.
-Trade any 2 of T.Ball/M.Chavis/S.Travis/W.Rijo/T.Buttrey/ and G.Cecchini to MIL for W.Smith.
-Shop C.Buchholz to any team offering anything decent,or the Sox just........buy him out.
-Shop K.Uehara to any team also offering any fair return.....if that is a no-go,keep him in the pen in 2016,but not as the Closer and just stomach it until something maybe comes along.
*Finally,I was on the C.Hamels train for as long as it lasted,but until recently...no more. The team should pursue J.Zimmerman in FA at season's end.....like immediately!! He is not an Ace per say but would blend well with the Staff with his proven consistency like that of an Ace in both In-season and Post-season play. Of course only if was willing to take a chance signing with the Sox. If so....I have a feeling the F.O. will be able to offer another Lester-type contract at him.....a front-loaded 4yr/125-130M +1yr.Opt. Even though he would be offered much more by other teams,Boston's recent titles,present staff,and future stars coming up from the farm might be enough to encourage him to play his part in putting this team back on track. He obviously would have his chance to step out the shadows playing behind the likes of Scherzer and Strasburg,just as he would most anywhere else. A no-nonsense player who would have his chance to be the Go-To Guy the Sox so desperately need,nevermind being a positive role model that may rub-off on the likes of the others on the Pitching Staff and others alike.
*Only another armchair GM's ideas at play,so we will see if my 2 pennies take place.
_________2016 Lineup/Batting Order__________ #1-rhb M.Betts CF #2-rhb X.Boegarts SS #3-rhb D.Pedroia 2B #4-rhb H.Ramirez DH #5-lhb P.Sandoval 3B #6-lhb A.DeAza RF #7-rhb R.Castillo LF #8-lhb T.Shaw 1B *Craig(if he's still around)and Shaw platoon. #9-lhb B.Swihart C _________ Bench_______________ -R.Hanigan C -B.Holt 2B,SS,3B,OF -J.Bradley OF -A.Craig 1B,OF
*D.Nava,D.Marrero,C.Vazquez and others on standby in AAA until needed.
_______2016 Starters________ #1-RH- J.Zimmerman #2-RH- R.Porcello #3-RH- T.Ross #4-LH- W.Miley #5-LH- E.Rodriquez
_______2016 Bullpen_________ CL.-RH- C.Kimbrel SR.-LH- W.Smith SR.-RH- Uehara/Tazawa/Kelly LR.-RH- Ogando/Kelly LR.-LH- Layne
*S.Wright,B.Workman,R.Ross and others on standby in AAA until needed.
*I think most of the Players will learn from their underachievements this year and 2016 will look even more promising with the Pitching overhaul as further inspiration.
*I believe B.Cherington will still be the GM and J.Farrell will remain as the HC.
*Financially speaking,the Red Sox should also fall under the Salary Cap by about $5M or more next season according to my approximate calculations. Being able to get under the Cap this season would be nice also,but 1 step at a time. The available $$$$ from the 4 FA's on their way out,declining the option and the buyout of Buchholz,and declining the option to Ortiz will be better spent elsewhere. They will be able to afford the fairly young cost/team controlled additions of T.Ross,C.Kimbrel,and W.Smith. 3 additions that fit the ideals that the Sox F.O. are looking for. They will be able to handle the huge signing of J.Zimmerman. Offer new deals to B.Holt,A.DeAza,handle the approx. $10-12+M in Arb. deals that may take place,and also the approx.$12M+ for Med. Insurance. I think that would money well spent to me.
*Looks like a pretty picture for 2016 and beyond for awhile folks.....I'd be content with those changes.....would you?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2015 0:45:52 GMT -5
Cherington made the same kind of devastating mistake two years in a row, taking a big risk with an important part of the team with no backup if it didn't work. Last year he gambled on the outfield not having any established high level performer except Victorino who had an injury history. He had no solid backup plan if the team's outfielders didn't hit, which they didn't. This season he gambled on the pitching not having any high level performer except Buchholz and his inconsistent history. He acquired a bunch of 3,4 and 5 level pitchers: Masterson trying to come back from an injury; Kelly not really established yet because of command problems; Porcello, who just had his best season, but was not heavily relied on by Detroit; and Miley, a solid pitcher but not a top of the rotation stopper. Except the starting pitching has been the best thing on the team. They rank 16th in xFIP-. That they've given up a lot more runs than they should have is the result of untimely execution, which is either luck or psychology. And of course the backup was Rodriguez, Johnson, Wright, Barnes, and Owens. We probably had a better backup plan for the rotation that any team in baseball. I believe that two things happened to kill the season. The twin catcher injuries were far more devastating than most people realize. But that's probably #2. The team very demonstrably got off to an unlucky start at the plate. Eyeballs and stats alike said they were hitting one line drive after another right at people. (Some team each year is going to be the unluckiest; this year we were it. Everything broke in our favor two years ago, so you can't bitch.) It's the manager's job to keep the team on an even keel through such times of undeserved adversity. This team, however, started pressing almost immediately, and kept pressing, and more than doubled the impact of the bad luck by failing to execute, by playing very untimely ball both at the plate and on the mound. The worst mistake this front office could make is to confuse lack of execution (and bad luck) with lack of talent. I want to remind folks that very few people online thought they could contend in 2013 after the disaster the previous year, and that the pieces acquired were viewed as complementary ones. We're in a similar position this year. The way that ERod, Johnson, and Owens pitch the rest of the year, plus Buchholz's health, will tell us whether we need to add a frontline starter. Add a couple of prime bullpen arms, move Hanley to 1B, find a platoon partner for Ortiz, put JBJ in the OF and decide whether Holt, Castillo, and Nava or an alternative will be good enough to hold down the last OF spot until Margot arrives, and you ought to have a strong lineup.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2015 0:49:55 GMT -5
BTW, one idea I've seen more than once here is to re-up De Aza and make him a starting OFer. This is a demonstrably terrible idea. Check out his thread, where I report the fact that he's had streaks like this three times in his career and has never been able to sustain them.
Trading him right now to some team that thinks he'll sustain it this time, however, would be a great idea.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 1:09:31 GMT -5
I am one like many who have been ticked-off with underachievements of the team this year. Though all the moves this past off-season moves seemed attractive enough on paper to me,I can do nothing now but shake it off and remain optimistic as a fan and a perennial season ticket holder. Yes....there are still plenty of games remaining where a comeback may be in store,but I am already planning for next year. So onward to points of interest and my recommendations that may help fix the team...........FA's to be: Victorino,Napoli,Breslow,and Masterson will very tough to move in trades. These guys will bring minimal return if any at all,nevertheless still shop them hard and let any remainder of them go at season's end. Though not a FA this year,A.Craig may be hard to give away also,he on the otherhand would be a worthwhile piece to keep around for another chance if he were to still remain with the team. Other key moves I would recommend the Front Office to consider and follow through with are as follows: *D.Ortiz has got to go. His contract $$$ on the books just don't provide enough of a substantial return anymore to have him kept around any longer,even with his $$$ friendly options for the next 2 yrs. His legacy will never be forgotten,but it's time move on. *H.Ramirez to the DH is a must,so his Fielding can be removed from play permanently once and for all. A major decrease in injury is most likely too. *P.Sandoval at 3B is OK for now.....if he continues to flounder in the field,then the F.O. should consider moving him to 1B.....he may argue that notion,but I think he will agree it's what's best for the team in the near future if that may be the case. He is a talented enough hitter to improve himself for next season, so I am not concerned with him in that regard. *The Sox should resign A.DeAza with a 3yr./18-20M deal. He and B.Holt have proven their worth this season and both should be rewarded for their spark and efforts when the team needed guys to step up. *Offer B.Holt a raise and restructure his Contract. I would give a 3-4yr./15-16M deal for being the Super UTIL he is and away from the Marketplace,even though He and DeAza could reap a decent return as trade bait. *Obviously,I feel the Bullpen needs the attention 1st while the getting is good. It is in dire need of reconditioning for the future,it should begin immediately before the trade deadline expires. The Sox need to be all over C.Kimbrel......they would idiotic if they didn't. Enough said with that. I would like to see the F.O. take advantage and get a rare but possible package deal from the Padres involving the acquisitions of both T.Ross and C.Kimbrel. Sacrificing some the farm is going to have to take place sooner or later. Personally,this stands out as a prime opportunity for that to take place. A package of {M.Margot,B.Johnson,M.Barnes,J.Guerra,and maybe someone like a T.Buttrey} may prove to irrestible for the Padres to turn down. Until 2015 season's end, the farm should also be given more PT to get more of a taste of what they have hand for next season. After Kimbrel.....I'm going after LH relief to compliment T.Layne. -Trade any 2 of T.Ball/M.Chavis/S.Travis/W.Rijo/T.Buttrey/ and G.Cecchini to MIL for W.Smith. -Shop C.Buchholz to any team offering anything decent,or the Sox just........buy him out. -Shop K.Uehara to any team also offering any fair return.....if that is a no-go,keep him in the pen in 2016,but not as the Closer and just stomach it until something maybe comes along. *Finally,I was on the C.Hamels train for as long as it lasted,but until recently...no more. The team should pursue J.Zimmerman in FA at season's end.....like immediately!! He is not an Ace per say but would blend well with the Staff with his proven consistency like that of an Ace in both In-season and Post-season play. Of course only if was willing to take a chance signing with the Sox. If so....I have a feeling the F.O. will be able to offer another Lester-type contract at him.....a front-loaded 4yr/125-130M +1yr.Opt. Even though he would be offered much more by other teams,Boston's recent titles,present staff,and future stars coming up from the farm might be enough to encourage him to play his part in putting this team back on track. He obviously would have his chance to step out the shadows playing behind the likes of Scherzer and Strasburg,just as he would most anywhere else. A no-nonsense player who would have his chance to be the Go-To Guy the Sox so desperately need,nevermind being a positive role model that may rub-off on the likes of the others on the Pitching Staff and others alike. *Only another armchair GM's ideas at play,so we will see if my 2 pennies take place. _________2016 Lineup/Batting Order__________ #1-rhb M.Betts CF #2-rhb X.Boegarts SS #3-rhb D.Pedroia 2B #4-rhb H.Ramirez DH #5-lhb P.Sandoval 3B #6-lhb A.DeAza RF #7-rhb R.Castillo LF #8-lhb T.Shaw 1B *Craig(if he's still around)and Shaw platoon. #9-lhb B.Swihart C _________ Bench_______________ -R.Hanigan C -B.Holt 2B,SS,3B,OF -J.Bradley OF -A.Craig 1B,OF *D.Nava,D.Marrero,C.Vazquez and others on standby in AAA until needed. _______2016 Starters________ #1-RH- J.Zimmerman #2-RH- R.Porcello #3-RH- T.Ross #4-LH- W.Miley #5-LH- E.Rodriquez _______2016 Bullpen_________ CL.-RH- C.Kimbrel SR.-LH- W.Smith SR.-RH- Uehara/Tazawa/Kelly LR.-RH- Ogando/Kelly LR.-LH- Layne *S.Wright,B.Workman,R.Ross and others on standby in AAA until needed. *I think most of the Players will learn from their underachievements this year and 2016 will look even more promising with the Pitching overhaul as further inspiration. *I believe B.Cherington will still be the GM and J.Farrell will remain as the HC. *Financially speaking,the Red Sox should also fall under the Salary Cap by about $5M or more next season according to my approximate calculations. Being able to get under the Cap this season would be nice also,but 1 step at a time. The available $$$$ from the 4 FA's on their way out,declining the option and the buyout of Buchholz,and declining the option to Ortiz will be better spent elsewhere. They will be able to afford the fairly young cost/team controlled additions of T.Ross,C.Kimbrel,and W.Smith. 3 additions that fit the ideals that the Sox F.O. are looking for. They will be able to handle the huge signing of J.Zimmerman. Offer new deals to B.Holt,A.DeAza,handle the approx. $10-12+M in Arb. deals that may take place,and also the approx.$12M+ for Med. Insurance. I think that would money well spent to me. *Looks like a pretty picture for 2016 and beyond for awhile folks.....I'd be content with those changes.....would you? In short: No. 1) Ortiz has a BABIP of around .230. His career average is around .300. He's hit righties well, and throughout his career has hit lefties well. He's on pace for 25 HR, and that's if he doesn't see some improvement due to a BABIP regression (progression?) to the mean. His contract is consistent with his performance, and replacing his bat is going to be difficult. Buying him out creates a big hole in the lineup. 2) Ramirez probably belongs at DH; that said he's improving in LF and, looking at, say, Gordon's career in KC, it probably will take Ramirez a year and a half to play LF to his abilities. I don't understand how people rationalize the idea that a player from one position should be immediately successful at a completely different (INF vs OF) position. They're not going anywhere this season, why not get him as many reps there as possible? Or, move Napoli and insert Ramirez at 1b. 3) SD bankrupted their minor league system this past winter. They're going to try to squeeze maximum prospect value from any trading partner, and I have to think Kimbrel is going to draw interest from contenders. I like the idea of acquiring him (or, more preferably, Aroldis Chapman), but only if the price is right. And by right, I mean maybe a prospect in the 60-90 overall range (in postseason rankings). *Maybe* Johnson straight-up, although he's been top-40 in some mid season rankings. 4) Jordan Zimmerman would be a waste of money. Go big or go home. Cueto, or don't bother. If you're going to blow $25M/yr, spend the extra $3M/yr for the younger, better pitcher. Agree Hamels is a terrible idea...$$$ and prospects? No thanks...and I've been saying that for as long as he's been on the market. 5) Don't waste significant prospects on bullpen arms. Most good bullpen arms are "found," a la Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, etc. the Sox just need to do a better job of identifying them. They have Light, Martin, Aro, Barnes, etc. in the wings, too. Alex Wilson may be a good cautionary tale...maybe they need to give these guys a little longer to develop. 6) De Aza has played well, but it's consistent with his career. He's streaky. His defense is good, but he doesn't have great pitch selection and he's not going to hit .300 or probably even .275 regularly. Trade him to a contender and put JBJ out there. De Aza has no place long-term on this team, JBJ might if he can hit the way he has in AAA (or even close, because .315/.400/.450 or so is a lot to ask). I could address a few more points, but those are the major ones.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 1:16:43 GMT -5
BTW, one idea I've seen more than once here is to re-up De Aza and make him a starting OFer. This is a demonstrably terrible idea. Check out his thread, where I report the fact that he's had streaks like this three times in his career and has never been able to sustain them. Trading him right now to some team that thinks he'll sustain it this time, however, would be a great idea. Beat me to it. I think this is a terrific idea. With Betts, Castillo, JBJ, Margot, and Benintendi (and maybe Moncada), De Aza has absolutely no place long-term on this team. Re-upping at $7M AAV for 3-4 years makes him worthless in trade, and he's a great bet to never come close to his current production over a full season. His good defense and hot hitting make him a valuable trade chip right now. Sell high. Some contender will hope to catch lightning in a bottle, and they'll probably give up a prospect in the 80-120 range to get him, if not more. Take advantage.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 1:27:11 GMT -5
Also, the idea that Buchholz should be given away for pennies on the dollar or just given walking papers is flat-out silly. His value is low because he's been hurt, now is NOT the time to trade him. And throwing away your best pitcher (whose FIP is top-10 in the AL) because he has a forearm strain is staggeringly ridiculous. If they're going to move him (and I might be OK with that if they got a Taijuan Walker or similar high-upside guy in return, but otherwise not), they're going to have a hard time replacing his production this season. So to maximize return, they need to have him pitch well the rest of this season and move him in the off-season. Otherwise, hope the kids pitch well next year and move him to a contender then.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2015 1:50:58 GMT -5
Also, the idea that Buchholz should be given away for pennies on the dollar or just given walking papers is flat-out silly. His value is low because he's been hurt, now is NOT the time to trade him. And throwing away your best pitcher (whose FIP is top-10 in the AL) because he has a forearm strain is staggeringly ridiculous. If they're going to move him (and I might be OK with that if they got a Taijuan Walker or similar high-upside guy in return, but otherwise not), they're going to have a hard time replacing his production this season. So to maximize return, they need to have him pitch well the rest of this season and move him in the off-season. Otherwise, hope the kids pitch well next year and move him to a contender then. People hate the idea that Buchholz gets hurt and therefore want to trade him. Never mind that the whoever takes his place at his price or below will not be anywhere as good as 4 1/2 months of Buchholz plus 1 1/2 months of Steven Wright or whoever your 6th starter is. It's like I'm offering you a Jaguar which will inevitably have to go in the shop, during which time you'll have to drive a Chevy, and you're like, I hate Chevies, so f%*$ the Jaguar, give me a Buick.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 22, 2015 2:42:19 GMT -5
Cherington made the same kind of devastating mistake two years in a row, taking a big risk with an important part of the team with no backup if it didn't work. Last year he gambled on the outfield not having any established high level performer except Victorino who had an injury history. He had no solid backup plan if the team's outfielders didn't hit, which they didn't. This season he gambled on the pitching not having any high level performer except Buchholz and his inconsistent history. He acquired a bunch of 3,4 and 5 level pitchers: Masterson trying to come back from an injury; Kelly not really established yet because of command problems; Porcello, who just had his best season, but was not heavily relied on by Detroit; and Miley, a solid pitcher but not a top of the rotation stopper. Except the starting pitching has been the best thing on the team. They rank 16th in xFIP-. That they've given up a lot more runs than they should have is the result of untimely execution, which is either luck or psychology. And of course the backup was Rodriguez, Johnson, Wright, Barnes, and Owens. We probably had a better backup plan for the rotation that any team in baseball. I believe that two things happened to kill the season. The twin catcher injuries were far more devastating than most people realize. But that's probably #2. The team very demonstrably got off to an unlucky start at the plate. Eyeballs and stats alike said they were hitting one line drive after another right at people. (Some team each year is going to be the unluckiest; this year we were it. Everything broke in our favor two years ago, so you can't bitch.) It's the manager's job to keep the team on an even keel through such times of undeserved adversity. This team, however, started pressing almost immediately, and kept pressing, and more than doubled the impact of the bad luck by failing to execute, by playing very untimely ball both at the plate and on the mound. The worst mistake this front office could make is to confuse lack of execution (and bad luck) with lack of talent. I want to remind folks that very few people online thought they could contend in 2013 after the disaster the previous year, and that the pieces acquired were viewed as complementary ones. We're in a similar position this year. The way that ERod, Johnson, and Owens pitch the rest of the year, plus Buchholz's health, will tell us whether we need to add a frontline starter. Add a couple of prime bullpen arms, move Hanley to 1B, find a platoon partner for Ortiz, put JBJ in the OF and decide whether Holt, Castillo, and Nava or an alternative will be good enough to hold down the last OF spot until Margot arrives, and you ought to have a strong lineup. Totally agree about the catching situation. As soon as Hanigan went down, we needed to acquire a vet. Swihart isn't ready to handle a mediocre pitching staff with a few head cases on it. Disagree 100pct about bad luck. How many unearned runs have we scored? The most in MLB. That off-sets any bad luck with BABIP. We're not as good as many posters think we are. A few players off years, blah, blah, blah. We suck. Last place for 2 straight years. No ace or even 2nd starter. Our closer is about to hang em up. We are nowhere near being a decent team as presently constituted.
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Post by bstrong on Jul 22, 2015 3:21:12 GMT -5
Hey what else is there to say.......everybody has their armchair GM ideas and I've got mine. I see a team of change and improvement aggressively built for success for the next 2-3yrs. at the very least that I listed above. While you do make some valid points of view and critiques ,it boils down to different opinions as we the individual fans have. Not everyone will be in agreement.....Some will think mathematically,some passively,and some aggressively in their opinions......enough said. So some remarks in volley though. Whether some moves are mathematically or statistically unreasonable to some.....I prefer to make more aggressive moves when others wouldn't.......sometimes it is about sending the message to the team "either SH** or get off the Pot". 1. Buchholz had his time in the spotlight. Simply put,$13M+/yr. for 16 or so GS and back on the DL has been his legacy.....understandably life offers no guarantees,but I want to see $$$ and sense spent elsewhere instead of taking bets when Clay will go down.....I have grown of sick it. I love the guy and all, but some Ballsy moves have to be made and he needs to be 1 of them. I said shop him for the best possible return and if nothing pans out that is worthwhile.....$245,000 and Thank You Letter sends him packing at season's end......message sent to the team about what I think about best version of a Starting Pitcher we possess in the present day......time for a change harshly,plainly,and simply. 2. A Cueto, A Price, even Greinke demanding a Scherzer-esque deals......no thank you!! Zimmerman is a Ballsy move and has the best bang for the buck to me. 3. Big Papi......Ahh......the Face,the Legend. I'd love to keep him on board but time for HanRam to take over. Time for $88M to provide 30-40HR/90-100+RBI with less of the Errors and Injury Risk at DH.....not at 1B or LF for another year of folly. Another stand-up Ballsy move. 4. Say what you want about DeAza and Holt as trade bait......I choose to keep them,nothing more. Certain Farmhands like Johnson,Margot,Barnes etc. are expendable to me. We have got a variety of pieces still in development that still remain for the future just the same. There are FA's-to-be we can shop also.....I'll take my chances with DeAza and Holt staying on the team and that's that. *Like ya mentioned, there is more moves and ideas we can debate over.....but 1 time is enough for me. Good day to ya.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 22, 2015 7:24:07 GMT -5
Zimmermann pitches to contact and will probably be overpaid in FA. Id rather pay 5M more and go the safer route with Price, although I'm doubting we get any big name pitcher.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 22, 2015 7:40:54 GMT -5
I think sometimes you reap what you sow. There might not be any silver bullet to save this team. I'd continue to hoard my youth (mostly) go out sign Price or Zimmermann next year and hope that you get a bounce back season from Pablo/Porcello next year until the youth movement is in full gear. Otherwise, this team is only marginally better next year.
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Post by theburn on Jul 22, 2015 8:10:48 GMT -5
Can somebody explain to me why Jackie Bradley is still in Pawtucket? What else does he have to prove?
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 22, 2015 8:14:23 GMT -5
Can somebody explain to me why Jackie Bradley is still in Pawtucket? What else does he have to prove?That he can hit at the major league level. This is a lost season, no reason why Jackie shouldn't be getting significant playing time.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 22, 2015 8:27:43 GMT -5
Also, the idea that Buchholz should be given away for pennies on the dollar or just given walking papers is flat-out silly. His value is low because he's been hurt, now is NOT the time to trade him. And throwing away your best pitcher (whose FIP is top-10 in the AL) because he has a forearm strain is staggeringly ridiculous. If they're going to move him (and I might be OK with that if they got a Taijuan Walker or similar high-upside guy in return, but otherwise not), they're going to have a hard time replacing his production this season. So to maximize return, they need to have him pitch well the rest of this season and move him in the off-season. Otherwise, hope the kids pitch well next year and move him to a contender then. People hate the idea that Buchholz gets hurt and therefore want to trade him. Never mind that the whoever takes his place at his price or below will not be anywhere as good as 4 1/2 months of Buchholz plus 1 1/2 months of Steven Wright or whoever your 6th starter is. It's like I'm offering you a Jaguar which will inevitably have to go in the shop, during which time you'll have to drive a Chevy, and you're like, I hate Chevies, so f%*$ the Jaguar, give me a Buick.The Jaguar comes with a 5/50 bumper to bumper. If it does break down you have free roadside assistance and a loaner Jag, no Chevy ,or Buick needed. Clay is more like putting a Chevy engine in a Jaguar frame. It looks and runs well for awhile but have your mechanic on speed dial.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2015 8:30:03 GMT -5
BTW, one idea I've seen more than once here is to re-up De Aza and make him a starting OFer. This is a demonstrably terrible idea. Check out his thread, where I report the fact that he's had streaks like this three times in his career and has never been able to sustain them. Trading him right now to some team that thinks he'll sustain it this time, however, would be a great idea. I agree with this. De Aza is a 4th OF at best. He does not belong in this outfield when you have Bradley and Castillo in AAA, so you get all you can for him now. Also, barring a Punto deal for either Hanley or Panda, you embrace them and try to make it work. Jettison Napoli before the trade deadline for whatever you can get (hopefully a AA/AAA reliever with some potential) or waive/DFA him after July 31 as the rest of his salary is a sunk cost. Move Hanley to 1st and bring up JBJ and Castillo. If you find a taker for Victorino before the 31st, fine. If not, he platoons with JBJ only playing vs. lefties for the rest of the year or acts as your 4th OF. I would also see what I could get for Miley, Hey, someone could do a reverse Peavy deal just for some 5th starter certainty down the stretch and going forward. Doesn't mean you have to move him, but you do make the calls to every potential partner you can find to see who may be interested. I would also take calls on Holt. His value will never be higher - though I think he has some very good value to the Red Sox so the return will have to be what you want. But it is the deadline and never know what a team with significant need and that "likes" Holt a lot will do. Added to all this is he still has a few years of control left. So all that in mind, someone could get a little ambitious. For example - though I know it's complete heresy: If the MFYs, who desperately need a second baseman and want a super utility guy to supplement all their creaky veterans, were desperate/liked him enough to offer either Judge or Severino - and we've all seen them trade away young talented players for immediate gratification before - you'd have to take that deal. And again, you don't have to trade him. But we've all seen GMs who think they are a player away from making the playoffs or advancing in them make "bold moves" at the deadline. This is all short term/let's see what we have here moves but they will set up the off-season, no matter who is in charge. They won't be shedding a lot of salary (Napoli $16M, Victorino $13M, Masterson $9.5 and some spare parts - Breslow, Ogando, etc), and they are still on the hook for Craig even if he doesn't count toward the luxury tax. Bottom line: see what you have knowing you'll have to get creative in November. On the plus side, if they can transition Hanley to 1st then that position and RF or LF are covered (or both if they actually commit to JBJ) and they can focus on pitching and complementary players.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 22, 2015 9:21:44 GMT -5
JBJ and others will be playing more soon. If the Sox are going to find decent deals for Napoli, Victorino (especially), De Aza, etc they need to be playing. Vic needs to show he can play and be healthy. Someone will want if he can.
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Post by theburn on Jul 22, 2015 9:36:29 GMT -5
Can somebody explain to me why Jackie Bradley is still in Pawtucket? What else does he have to prove?That he can hit at the major league level. This is a lost season, no reason why Jackie shouldn't be getting significant playing time. To clarify: what else does he need to prove in Pawtucket? Because this is a lost season, Jackie deserves another shot. Seeing Nava with the big club makes me cringe. I hope he gets an opportunity after the deadline.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 10:07:16 GMT -5
Also, the idea that Buchholz should be given away for pennies on the dollar or just given walking papers is flat-out silly. His value is low because he's been hurt, now is NOT the time to trade him. And throwing away your best pitcher (whose FIP is top-10 in the AL) because he has a forearm strain is staggeringly ridiculous. If they're going to move him (and I might be OK with that if they got a Taijuan Walker or similar high-upside guy in return, but otherwise not), they're going to have a hard time replacing his production this season. So to maximize return, they need to have him pitch well the rest of this season and move him in the off-season. Otherwise, hope the kids pitch well next year and move him to a contender then. People hate the idea that Buchholz gets hurt and therefore want to trade him. Never mind that the whoever takes his place at his price or below will not be anywhere as good as 4 1/2 months of Buchholz plus 1 1/2 months of Steven Wright or whoever your 6th starter is. It's like I'm offering you a Jaguar which will inevitably have to go in the shop, during which time you'll have to drive a Chevy, and you're like, I hate Chevies, so f%*$ the Jaguar, give me a Buick.That was a perfect (and hilarious) analogy. The most ridiculous part is, there's no way they're getting a lower payment on the Buick. Plus, they're going to be stuck making payments for a minimum of four years. I'm all for trading Buchholz if they get value back. And by value, I mean Walker or Danny Salazar or someone in that boat. Buchholz has a team-friendly contract, and significant upside. Downside is almost completely mitigated by his contract (team option) structure. Get him back on the mound and build his value.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 10:22:15 GMT -5
That he can hit at the major league level. This is a lost season, no reason why Jackie shouldn't be getting significant playing time. To clarify: what else does he need to prove in Pawtucket? Because this is a lost season, Jackie deserves another shot. Seeing Nava with the big club makes me cringe. I hope he gets an opportunity after the deadline. Another source of endless irritation to me. The guy is hitting well over .300 with an OPS near .900. He's arguably the best defensive outfielder in the game. Why he isn't being given a legitimate shot to show what he can do in the majors is beyond me. De Aza should be traded for maximum value. He has (and really shouldn't have, beyond as a fourth OF) no future on the team. I hold out hope that Castillo is just shaking off rust and will play well, but maybe it's not until next year. Victorino has no future with the team, either. I like him (at least, from what I've seen/heard) as a person, but baseball is a business and it's time for them to move him one way or another. Now is the time to see what they've got for next year, and even if they decide they don't have a spot for Bradley, I'd hate to see them do that without a fair shot. It would be, IMO, a huge mistake. My only guess is that they're doing it to keep his value from really tanking if he doesn't hit in the majors. At least right now they can point to his IL numbers and say "he's figured out how to hit again." It may not make him a centerpiece, but it does make him a good secondary piece. That said, I'd rather see him on the Sox in RF, even if he hits .240/.320/.380. Some guys take a little while to develop...give Bradley a chance, because his defense (arm especially) is amazing.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2015 10:26:46 GMT -5
Can somebody explain to me why Jackie Bradley is still in Pawtucket? What else does he have to prove? That he can hit at the major league level. This is a lost season, no reason why Jackie shouldn't be getting significant playing time. There's only one way he can do that...
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 22, 2015 10:27:46 GMT -5
Cherington made the same kind of devastating mistake two years in a row, taking a big risk with an important part of the team with no backup if it didn't work. Last year he gambled on the outfield not having any established high level performer except Victorino who had an injury history. He had no solid backup plan if the team's outfielders didn't hit, which they didn't. This season he gambled on the pitching not having any high level performer except Buchholz and his inconsistent history. He acquired a bunch of 3,4 and 5 level pitchers: Masterson trying to come back from an injury; Kelly not really established yet because of command problems; Porcello, who just had his best season, but was not heavily relied on by Detroit; and Miley, a solid pitcher but not a top of the rotation stopper. Except the starting pitching has been the best thing on the team. They rank 16th in xFIP-. That they've given up a lot more runs than they should have is the result of untimely execution, which is either luck or psychology. And of course the backup was Rodriguez, Johnson, Wright, Barnes, and Owens. We probably had a better backup plan for the rotation that any team in baseball. We're not as far apart as it may seem. It depends on one's definition of backup. In my use of it, I meant that when the team did not receive the quality of pitching that was expected, it did not make the moves necessary to gain that quality. Having unproven minor league pitchers available is a backup plan to fill rotation slots if there is a calamity, or total failure - which is almost the situation this year. However, the risk they took for which they had no backup plan, was thinking that unproven, injured, mid-range pitchers could perform at higher levels - or at least some could. There was no ace, no stopper, but they thought that on average the pitching performances would be good enough to offset that. When that proved not to be the case, replacing those pitchers with the minor leaguers also did not yield high quality results - with the exception of some of Rodiguez's performances. You cannot escape the fact that this pitching staff has allowed more runs than any other in the American League and only two in the National League, Philadelphia and Colorado, have allowed more. Relatively speaking, the hitting has been better. The Sox are 11th in runs scored in the AL, and 17th overall. Of course, that isn't anything to brag about when you are trying to have a contending team. I prioposed keeping De Aza not as a starter but as the 4th OF. I view him somewhat like Holt, as someone who can do well in stretches and provides energy to the team. I agree that he should not be a regular. The regulars have to be better. I also agree that much of the nucleus of a future contending team may be mostly in place, and a way to get a better idea of whether that is the case is to play the players who right now are the best candidates to be on that team, and to jettison those who are not.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 11:24:55 GMT -5
Hey what else is there to say.......everybody has their armchair GM ideas and I've got mine. I see a team of change and improvement aggressively built for success for the next 2-3yrs. at the very least that I listed above. While you do make some valid points of view and critiques ,it boils down to different opinions as we the individual fans have. Not everyone will be in agreement.....Some will think mathematically,some passively,and some aggressively in their opinions......enough said. So some remarks in volley though. Whether some moves are mathematically or statistically unreasonable to some.....I prefer to make more aggressive moves when others wouldn't.......sometimes it is about sending the message to the team "either SH** or get off the Pot". 1. Buchholz had his time in the spotlight. Simply put,$13M+/yr. for 16 or so GS and back on the DL has been his legacy.....understandably life offers no guarantees,but I want to see $$$ and sense spent elsewhere instead of taking bets when Clay will go down.....I have grown of sick it. I love the guy and all, but some Ballsy moves have to be made and he needs to be 1 of them. I said shop him for the best possible return and if nothing pans out that is worthwhile.....$245,000 and Thank You Letter sends him packing at season's end......message sent to the team about what I think about best version of a Starting Pitcher we possess in the present day......time for a change harshly,plainly,and simply. 2. A Cueto, A Price, even Greinke demanding a Scherzer-esque deals......no thank you!! Zimmerman is a Ballsy move and has the best bang for the buck to me. 3. Big Papi......Ahh......the Face,the Legend. I'd love to keep him on board but time for HanRam to take over. Time for $88M to provide 30-40HR/90-100+RBI with less of the Errors and Injury Risk at DH.....not at 1B or LF for another year of folly. Another stand-up Ballsy move. 4. Say what you want about DeAza and Holt as trade bait......I choose to keep them,nothing more. Certain Farmhands like Johnson,Margot,Barnes etc. are expendable to me. We have got a variety of pieces still in development that still remain for the future just the same. There are FA's-to-be we can shop also.....I'll take my chances with DeAza and Holt staying on the team and that's that. *Like ya mentioned, there is more moves and ideas we can debate over.....but 1 time is enough for me. Good day to ya. Re: Buchholz, I think you're confusing "aggressive" with "impulsive." Dumping him because of a minor injury isn't aggressive, it's impulsive, and exactly the wrong move. Paying a #2 starter $30M a year for four years (and it's highly debatable that he would be remotely lured by recent titles or young players...he could just as easily be completely put off by two consecutive last-place finishes) instead of paying a #1 starter a few million more a year doesn't make sense to me. They're three months apart in age, and Cueto has an injury history, so I understand your concern there. But frankly, what on earth would Zimmermann want with a 4/120 (knowing most pitchers decline after 33), when Lester had worse numbers and got 6/155 (plus an option?). I suppose that a shorter contract with a high AAV could be called "aggressive," but it also has to be rational. I have a feeling Zimmermann is going to be looking for 7/170 or 6/160. And while I have no issue with being "aggressive," I'm of the opinion that it be with only the best players (say, Pedro's record-setting contract extension, or Manny's huge deal), not good-but-not-great players like JZ. I'd rather see them spend that $30M-plus elsewhere.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 11:31:32 GMT -5
Also, continually labeling your suggestions "Aggressive!!" or "Ballsy!!" doesn't make them so, nor does it make them any better. You can insert a CGI graphic of a diving, screaming bald eagle too, if you like. It's just spin-doctoring, and second-degree self-aggrandizement. You don't need to hype your suggestions if they stand on their own merit.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2015 11:33:00 GMT -5
Except the starting pitching has been the best thing on the team. They rank 16th in xFIP-. That they've given up a lot more runs than they should have is the result of untimely execution, which is either luck or psychology. And of course the backup was Rodriguez, Johnson, Wright, Barnes, and Owens. We probably had a better backup plan for the rotation that any team in baseball. We're not as far apart as it may seem. It depends on one's definition of backup. In my use of it, I meant that when the team did not receive the quality of pitching that was expected, it did not make the moves necessary to gain that quality. Having unproven minor league pitchers available is a backup plan to fill rotation slots if there is a calamity, or total failure - which is almost the situation this year. However, the risk they took for which they had no backup plan, was thinking that unproven, injured, mid-range pitchers could perform at higher levels - or at least some could. There was no ace, no stopper, but they thought that on average the pitching performances would be good enough to offset that. When that proved not to be the case, replacing those pitchers with the minor leaguers also did not yield high quality results - with the exception of some of Rodiguez's performances. You cannot escape the fact that this pitching staff has allowed more runs than any other in the American League and only two in the National League, Philadelphia and Colorado, have allowed more. Relatively speaking, the hitting has been better. The Sox are 11th in runs scored in the AL, and 17th overall. Of course, that isn't anything to brag about when you are trying to have a contending team. I prioposed keeping De Aza not as a starter but as the 4th OF. I view him somewhat like Holt, as someone who can do well in stretches and provides energy to the team. I agree that he should not be a regular. The regulars have to be better. I also agree that much of the nucleus of a future contending team may be mostly in place, and a way to get a better idea of whether that is the case is to play the players who right now are the best candidates to be on that team, and to jettison those who are not. The offense is 18th in wRC+ and 22nd in Win Probability Added, the difference being bad situational execution. But it was projected to be among the very best in baseball. The fielding was supposed to be a strength, but they rank 20th in MLB with -7 DRS. However, that includes Hanley with -16 and Sandoval with -11. (You can't complain about Pedroia's -4 when Bogaerts is +5; people projected it the other way around.) Hanley was arguably a talent misestimation, while Sandoval is probably a combo of luck and first-year-with-new-team-ness. Both guys have been much better of late, both by eyes and stats, which is to say their negative numbers are either increasing much more slowly (Hanley) or have leveled off pretty much completely (Sandoval). You cannot escape the fact that this pitching staff has allowed more runs than any other in the American League and only two in the National League, Philadelphia and Colorado, have allowed more.No, you can't, but you have to break down where that comes from. The starters are 29th in ERA-, but when you factor out the fielding, they're roughly tied for 26th .
They are 25th in WPA, which is a better measure of the cost of the runs they did give up -- the ERA is inflated by giving up a lot of meaningless runs in games already lost (which is to say, Farrell has frequently left pitchers in to give up 6, 7 ER in a few innings). When you adjust WPA for fielding (assuming the fielders played the same behind the starters and relievers, and were average in the clutch), the Red Sox starters were 20th in MLB in the impact of SP results on winning. However, they are 14th in FIP-, 15th in xFIP-, and 16th in SIERA. Essentially average performance when fielding and situational pitching is removed. And the model was to contend by having average starting pitching and a great offense. The difference between the 15th or 16th rank in performance in terms of talent and the 20th rank in terms of meaningful results is bad situational pitching when it counts.
The Royals are 29th in rotation DRS-adjusted WPA . We're between the Astros (19th) and the Giants (21st). The Yankees are 13th, and the Mets are 14th. IOW, a slight majority (5 of 9) of the top contenders have had average or subpar starting pitching, including the second best team in baseball with the second worst starting pitching. Planning on having average SP was not a flaw. Relief pitching is so volatile that it's hard to estimate the talent level on the field, so I'm not sure exactly how much weight to put on their 17th rank in ERA-, or their 26th rank in xFIP- / 24th in SIERA. That it's collectively not a talented bunch is clear, though. They rank 20th in DRS-adjusted WPA -- better results than their talent would suggest. That may be entirely because Koji has been much better in save situations than otherwise.
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Post by buffs4444 on Jul 22, 2015 12:15:49 GMT -5
Time to clear out Napoli, De Aza, Victorino and replace with Castillo, Everyday JBJ, and Craig.
Each one has questions but given the circumstances you need to find out what you have in each moving forward.
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