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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by popsie1947 on Aug 2, 2015 15:13:45 GMT -5
When can we expect to see Sam Travis? Will he be up in September or sometime next year
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 2, 2015 15:14:03 GMT -5
Benching a guy who's barely hitting over .200 is perfectly fair. If your referring to Napoli, he must go. I don't understand the front office logic. 1 game doesn't define a career in regards to Shaw, give the player a shot, either at 3B or 1B and see what you got. Same with Sam Travis. Travis in AA should get a call up in Sept to gain experience, doesn't need to play everyday, a game or two a week and see where it goes.. Why are Owens and Johnson not in the Rotation? I don't get it. Playing someone once or twice a week will not tell you much about that player especially if they are a young player who needs experience by playing everyday. Players are often called up to get there feet wet and see what they can expect in a year or two.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2015 15:15:26 GMT -5
When can we expect to see Sam Travis? Will he be up in September or sometime next year Definitely not this year. He just got promoted to AA.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Aug 2, 2015 17:12:40 GMT -5
While I'm greatly encouraged by what Sam Travis is doing in AA over his first month in the league, I echo others who think there is no way he will (or should) be called up to Boston in September, so long as players like Shaw, Holt and even Cecchini remain healthy. We need to get more at-bats for Shaw in my opinion and honestly I really like getting him repition at 3b as well. I suppose I could be talked into giving Travis a cup of coffee IF we're able to deal Napoli and he continues to hit at very well in Portland, but I really think it's too early.
Eric - I hear you regarding players adjusting to a new city. Josh Beckett was certainly like that, as was John Lackey to a lesser extent. You seem fairly confident in Sandoval becoming the good 2.0-3.0WAR player that most of us expected him to be based on his age and track record, and you alluded to this in discussing how it's uncommon for players to continually decline while in the midst of their prime years. You mentioned Beltran as an example of needing to adjust but he certainly wasn't in the midst of a steep offensive and defensive decline, he was in phenomenal shape (played CF if I recall) and had a far better approach at the plate.
However (and I mean this question sincerely, I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm asking) couldn't one assume that those players bounced back because they were both in much better shape physically and had a far better approach at the plate than does Sandoval.
For Sandoval, it's not just this year, its the fact that you have five straight years of decline offensively, you have four out of five years of decline defensively, you have someone with an awful approach at the plate AND a player that is in horrible shape for a professional athlete or a man of his age and height. When I look at his "hard hit ball percentage" on FG, it's at 23.8% - about 7% below his career numbers and what he put up last year. I'm just concerned that he's "aging" quicker than one would expect due to his lack of conditioning and his approach at the plate.
All that said, if the plan is to tell him to get in shape and come back strong at 3b next season, I'm fine with that (it certainly worked for John Lackey, for instance) and if it works, I'll gladly eat crow on saying that he's done (for the record, I still don't think it's happening). But he's not getting in any better shape over the next two months. Since the season is "over" from a contention standpoint, I assuredly want Shaw playing either 1b (if we have Holt or Cecchini at 3b) and at 3b if we elect to hold on to Napoli.
For the record, this has NOTHING do to with the way Shaw hit the ball the last two games. I'm basing it more on his (very rough math) line of .250/.340/.415/.755 line between Portland and Pawtucket and him showing far better competence at third base than I would have expected for him only recently starting to play there; and the fact that I truly believe Sandoval is a sunk cost that will continue to provide the team with extreme negative value at the plate and in the field.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 2, 2015 19:22:17 GMT -5
While I'm greatly encouraged by what Sam Travis is doing in AA over his first month in the league, I echo others who think there is no way he will (or should) be called up to Boston in September, so long as players like Shaw, Holt and even Cecchini remain healthy. We need to get more at-bats for Shaw in my opinion and honestly I really like getting him repition at 3b as well. I suppose I could be talked into giving Travis a cup of coffee IF we're able to deal Napoli and he continues to hit at very well in Portland, but I really think it's too early. Eric - I hear you regarding players adjusting to a new city. Josh Beckett was certainly like that, as was John Lackey to a lesser extent. You seem fairly confident in Sandoval becoming the good 2.0-3.0WAR player that most of us expected him to be based on his age and track record, and you alluded to this in discussing how it's uncommon for players to continually decline while in the midst of their prime years. You mentioned Beltran as an example of needing to adjust but he certainly wasn't in the midst of a steep offensive and defensive decline, he was in phenomenal shape (played CF if I recall) and had a far better approach at the plate. However (and I mean this question sincerely, I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm asking) couldn't one assume that those players bounced back because they were both in much better shape physically and had a far better approach at the plate than does Sandoval. For Sandoval, it's not just this year, its the fact that you have five straight years of decline offensively, you have four out of five years of decline defensively, you have someone with an awful approach at the plate AND a player that is in horrible shape for a professional athlete or a man of his age and height. When I look at his "hard hit ball percentage" on FG, it's at 23.8% - about 7% below his career numbers and what he put up last year. I'm just concerned that he's "aging" quicker than one would expect due to his lack of conditioning and his approach at the plate. All that said, if the plan is to tell him to get in shape and come back strong at 3b next season, I'm fine with that (it certainly worked for John Lackey, for instance) and if it works, I'll gladly eat crow on saying that he's done (for the record, I still don't think it's happening). But he's not getting in any better shape over the next two months. Since the season is "over" from a contention standpoint, I assuredly want Shaw playing either 1b (if we have Holt or Cecchini at 3b) and at 3b if we elect to hold on to Napoli. For the record, this has NOTHING do to with the way Shaw hit the ball the last two games. I'm basing it more on his (very rough math) line of .250/.340/.415/.755 line between Portland and Pawtucket and him showing far better competence at third base than I would have expected for him only recently starting to play there; and the fact that I truly believe Sandoval is a sunk cost that will continue to provide the team with extreme negative value at the plate and in the field. I agree re: Travis; he's got less than 100 PAs in AA and a move to AAA at the end of the year if he really smokes the ball makes way more sense than a big league callup. FWIW, Shaw was drafted and played as a 3b until he met Cecchini resistance (and poor performance) in Portland in 2013. He was generally, if I recall correctly, seen as a passable 3b with a good arm (avg to solid-avg) and somewhat limited range but soft hands. He got a shot in the AFL in fall of 2013 and destroyed the ball, statistically rivaling Kris Bryant. He also was (along with Bryant) the only player to have two of the top twenty exit velocities combined with 25-35 degree launch angle. There's a BA article in the archives about it. He was awesome in Portland in 2014, struggled in Pawtucket after promotion, and has been middling in Pawtucket this year. He seems to me to project as a 0-1 WAR player, unless his defense is better than advertised. That said, he has a reasonably good eye and clearly the potential (especially when he goes the other way) to be a not-poor hitter, **maybe** even an average one. If he can play an average 3b on offense and defense, he's a better option than Sandoval given the ludicrous disparity in contracts. That said, Sandoval needs to play (OK if not well) if the Sox are to get out from under his contract.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 2, 2015 20:51:07 GMT -5
Getting the RS back to respectability is all about minimizing the damage from the horrendous ML player evaluation and spending that has taken place since the 2014 trade deadline.
- Get Hanley and his -2.1 (and counting) bRef dWAR out of LF. Move him to 1b, where he will still be a bad BB player. He's got an OPS of 105, not nearly good enough for a contending team's 1B, particularly one who can't field. Hey, I said we're trying to minimize damage, didn't I?
- Get a RHH 1b so that Hanley can DH and Papi can grab some pine vs. LHP. Getting this sort of niche player will not be easy. It has to be someone who can do some damage against LHP, play a decent 1B so that he can be a late-inning sub for Hanley and who is relatively inexpensive. If Napoli's market is dry and he's forced to play for, let's say, $4 million on a one-year deal, he might be the guy.
- If JBJ and Castillo show potential these last two months, go with an OF of Castillo, Mook, JBJ. This would require a RH bench bat to platoon with JBJ. Someone like the 2013 version of Gomes would be fine.
- Eat a bunch of money on Panda. If some team is dumb enough to take the declining fat guy with the RS eating half the remaining money, I'd jump at it. That would free up another $10 million a year to spend the next four years.
- Do with 3b what Belichick is doing with his defensive backfield. Bring in bodies and turn it into a competition. Travis Shaw, Garin Checchini and whoever else they can bring in can fight for the job.
- And, if they really want to have a shot at respectability in 2016, go hard after Cueto. Even with Cueto, we would need a bounce-back from Porcello for the rotation to be contender level. The rotation to start the season would be: 1. Cueto; 2. Porcello; 3. Clay; 4. EdRod; 5. Miley. Johnson and Owens would be at AAA (unless one of them shines the next two months) ready to step in when Clay or someone else breaks down.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 3, 2015 6:18:40 GMT -5
It's time to bring up Johnson and Owens. Kelly should go to the bullpen. I think he could do very well there. Wright was impressive but I think he also belongs in the pen. In fact, I think the two of them could significantly improve the bullpen. The rotation now should be Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Johnson and Owens. That rotation is necessary in order to have an off-season player acquisition strategy that makes sense. I think the Sox still will need to add at least one ace. There needs to be an anchor to this rotation, someone with more experience and greater accomplishment. I think Miley is the best candidate for trading. Porcello probably will be hard to trade because of his contract. Johnson also might be a candidate for a trade but he needs to be seen more in the majors before that can be decided. I'm feeling bullish today because I've been pitching Shaw for weeks. He should be playing regularly, mostly at 1B where I think he is better suited. However, from what I could tell he wasn't bad at third today, but I only heard about two-thirds of the game. I agree with most of what you wrote, except for the Wade Miley trade part and you are one of many with that same idea. He's been the most consistent pitcher they have had this season and they desperately need reliable inning eaters, next year and going forward. His contract; 15:$3.5M, 16:$6M, 17:$8.75M, 18:$12M club option ($0.5M buyout) 2018 option may increase by $2M to $14M based on performance. His Xfip was better than Shields last year, www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wade-miley-who-is-better-than-you-think/I know we don't have alot of trade chips, but I'd start somewhere else first.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 3, 2015 6:54:52 GMT -5
IMO Miley is a very solid 5, and maybe a 4. He has a lot of value. The only way you move him with a fairly team-friendly contract is part of a package for a top of the rotation starter. He is what he is. He will give us close to 200 innings and keep us in MOST games.
I hoping Porcello will do that, at least, and hopefully more next season. He should be a solid #3. He will be more comfortable next season I believe.
CUETO should be targeted BIG TIME this off season. I'm all for a trade that nets us a #2 also, and yes it will have to be painful. The rotation has to be a strength next season for us to finally get back to competing. If it is only marginally better in 2016, don't expect much improvement. We also badly need another "power" arm in the pen, and it would seem to me that getting Joe Kelly comfortable out there NOW.....would be smart.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 3, 2015 7:00:47 GMT -5
I need convincing with Cueto. He'll be 30 next year and only has hit 200 innings twice in his career. He may be peaking right now, and will get a six year deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 3, 2015 7:01:23 GMT -5
IMO Miley is a very solid 5, and maybe a 4. He has a lot of value. The only way you move him with a fairly team-friendly contract is part of a package for a top of the rotation starter. He is what he is. He will give us close to 200 innings and keep us in MOST games. I hoping Porcello will do that, at least, and hopefully more next season. He should be a solid #3. He will be more comfortable next season I believe. CUETO should be targeted BIG TIME this off season. I'm all for a trade that nets us a #2 also, and yes it will have to be painful. The rotation has to be a strength next season for us to finally get back to competing. If it is only marginally better in 2016, don't expect much improvement. We also badly need another "power" arm in the pen, and it would seem to me that getting Joe Kelly comfortable out there NOW.....would be smart. I was thinking along the lines of moving Miley, a Bradley, and Johnson or Kelly in a deal for a better pitcher whose contract would expire at the end of 2016, so that the other team is getting a cost certainty for an extended period while the Sox would get the temporary upgrade and a potential QO. Add that guy to a free agent signing like Cueto, along with maturation from Rodriguez and/or Owens, and maybe Buchholz comes back from injury or is pitching well by the end of the season, and you have the makings of a presentable post-season rotation.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 3, 2015 9:37:42 GMT -5
I'm pretty set against signing any pitcher to a huge deal this winter (Cueto, Price or Zimmermann).
If I was to hand out a big contract, I would sign Heyward.
Heyward will be just 26 next season, and plays great RF defense giving him a high floor. If he doesn't hit his offensive peak, he's still a 3+ WAR player with a slightly above average bat and plus glove. He doesn't have big K rates or plate discipline issues. He's low risk compared to the moves we've been making. Moving Hanley to 1B and filling one OF spot with Heyward could really solidify our defense (which will aid the pitching) and our lineup. Heyward would also get likely 5M per season less than a Cueto which would be useful for us to aggregate somewhere else.
An argument to make is that Bradley could perhaps give you what Heyward brings to the table currently. But Heyward has much higher power potential and offensive upside. The remainder of the season will give us a better sense of what to expect from JBJ though. If things go well you could package/trade him for a SP like Ross, or hold onto him because of his production and low salary.
Regardless, I think Heyward should be an intriguing option for us.
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Post by notguilty on Aug 3, 2015 9:46:14 GMT -5
I'm pretty set against signing any pitcher to a huge deal this winter (Cueto, Price or Zimmermann). If I was to hand out a big contract, I would sign Heyward. Heyward will be just 26 next season, and plays great RF defense giving him a high floor. If he doesn't hit his offensive peak, he's still a 3+ WAR player with a slightly above average bat and plus glove. He doesn't have big K rates or plate discipline issues. He's low risk compared to the moves we've been making. Moving Hanley to 1B and filling one OF spot with Heyward could really solidify our defense (which will aid the pitching) and our lineup. An argument to make is that Bradley could perhaps give you what Heyward brings to the table currently. But Heyward has much higher power potential and offensive upside. The remainder of the season will give us a better sense of what to expect from JBJ though. If things go well you could package/trade him for a SP like Ross, or hold onto him because of his production and low salary. Regardless, I think Heyward should be an intriguing option for us. How do you fix the biggest problem this team has - the pitching - if you put your big FA money in Heyward?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 3, 2015 9:49:51 GMT -5
I'm pretty set against signing any pitcher to a huge deal this winter (Cueto, Price or Zimmermann). If I was to hand out a big contract, I would sign Heyward. Heyward will be just 26 next season, and plays great RF defense giving him a high floor. If he doesn't hit his offensive peak, he's still a 3+ WAR player with a slightly above average bat and plus glove. He doesn't have big K rates or plate discipline issues. He's low risk compared to the moves we've been making. Moving Hanley to 1B and filling one OF spot with Heyward could really solidify our defense (which will aid the pitching) and our lineup. Heyward would also get likely 5M per season less than a Cueto which would be useful for us to aggregate somewhere else. An argument to make is that Bradley could perhaps give you what Heyward brings to the table currently. But Heyward has much higher power potential and offensive upside. The remainder of the season will give us a better sense of what to expect from JBJ though. If things go well you could package/trade him for a SP like Ross, or hold onto him because of his production and low salary. Regardless, I think Heyward should be an intriguing option for us. Possibly the front office may even be thinking of Chris Davis at first, but that would just add to the blockage. I like Heyward, but he will get HUGE dollars and has never really put up big numbers. Not sure we can stay with the idea of not giving out contracts for 30+ year old pitchers. IF, and that is a giant if, we want to compete in 2016, we may have to go after one of those guys.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 3, 2015 10:02:16 GMT -5
Bleacher report speculated the sox we're trying to unload sandavol on San Diego at the trade deadline.
Maybe bc can revisit that scenario in the offseason.
If nothing else it gives us more payroll flexibility to go after young cost controlled starters.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 3, 2015 11:00:48 GMT -5
I'm pretty set against signing any pitcher to a huge deal this winter (Cueto, Price or Zimmermann). If I was to hand out a big contract, I would sign Heyward. Heyward will be just 26 next season, and plays great RF defense giving him a high floor. If he doesn't hit his offensive peak, he's still a 3+ WAR player with a slightly above average bat and plus glove. He doesn't have big K rates or plate discipline issues. He's low risk compared to the moves we've been making. Moving Hanley to 1B and filling one OF spot with Heyward could really solidify our defense (which will aid the pitching) and our lineup. An argument to make is that Bradley could perhaps give you what Heyward brings to the table currently. But Heyward has much higher power potential and offensive upside. The remainder of the season will give us a better sense of what to expect from JBJ though. If things go well you could package/trade him for a SP like Ross, or hold onto him because of his production and low salary. Regardless, I think Heyward should be an intriguing option for us. How do you fix the biggest problem this team has - the pitching - if you put your big FA money in Heyward? Heyward's averaged 5.0 bWAR a year in his first 6 years, including a 5.4 bWAR pace this season. Yet because so much of that value is defensive, he won't get paid as a 5.0 WAR player. As I was pointing out last winter, he's worth more to us than almost any other team because of our big RF. Bradley's got to be on the team next year, either as a starter or in a platoon or bench role. Of the OFers who will be in the organization next year, Bradley has certainly had the second best season, and even if you keep everyone, you have two open roster spots no matter who plays where. And I would put the odds that Hanley will play 1B (or 3B) next year at at least 60%, maybe 70%. What they want to find out in the next two months is whether Hanley will do less defensive harm at 1B than in LF, and whether JBJ and Castillo represent a pair of starting OFers, a platoon pair, or (relatively unlikely) a pair of bench guys. Whether you have a place for Heyward depends on how that falls out; if you don't, it's likely that you need a new 1B instead. How do we improve the pitching? You trade for a cost-controlled young starter. Right now you have Blake Swihart and Javier Guerra blocked by better players (better for the time being in Swihart's case, but Swihart will always have the higher trade value to actual value ratio, and Vazquez is still a borderline All-Star). You also have two potentially elite 3B in Moncada and Devers, making the latter a guy you could conceivably trade, in the right deal. If you get very positive answers about JBJ and Castillo and/or can sign Heyward, Margot falls into the same category, a guy you could part with, reluctantly, in the right blockbuster. And if you're trading for a young starter, you can send one of Miley, Johnson, or Owens in the opposite direction (while still keeping Johnson or Owens as the 6th starter and Wright as the 7th). There may be no team in MLB better positioned to do this. Sonny Gray will always be available in the right deal. The Mets are certainly in a position to deal either Syndergaard or DeGrom to help their anemic offense, but with D'Arnaud, they don't need Swihart; what they need is a SS (assuming they move Flores back to 2B) and a pair of outfielders ... so that might have to be 3-team deal. I'm sure there are other possibilities.
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Post by nexus on Aug 3, 2015 11:36:56 GMT -5
I'm pretty set against signing any pitcher to a huge deal this winter (Cueto, Price or Zimmermann). If I was to hand out a big contract, I would sign Heyward. Heyward will be just 26 next season, and plays great RF defense giving him a high floor. If he doesn't hit his offensive peak, he's still a 3+ WAR player with a slightly above average bat and plus glove. He doesn't have big K rates or plate discipline issues. He's low risk compared to the moves we've been making. Moving Hanley to 1B and filling one OF spot with Heyward could really solidify our defense (which will aid the pitching) and our lineup. Heyward would also get likely 5M per season less than a Cueto which would be useful for us to aggregate somewhere else. An argument to make is that Bradley could perhaps give you what Heyward brings to the table currently. But Heyward has much higher power potential and offensive upside. The remainder of the season will give us a better sense of what to expect from JBJ though. If things go well you could package/trade him for a SP like Ross, or hold onto him because of his production and low salary. Regardless, I think Heyward should be an intriguing option for us. Possibly the front office may even be thinking of Chris Davis at first, but that would just add to the blockage. I like Heyward, but he will get HUGE dollars and has never really put up big numbers. Not sure we can stay with the idea of not giving out contracts for 30+ year old pitchers. IF, and that is a giant if, we want to compete in 2016, we may have to go after one of those guys. I don't disagree, but I think people often lose sight of the fact he will be entering his age 26 season going into next season. For comparison's sake, Ellsbury wasn't even arb-eligible at the same age. I don't know what he'll get. 8/$175M might be too low. But if given a choice, I'd rather spend that sort of money on Heyward v. the 6/$150M it would take to sign Jordan Zimmermann.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 3, 2015 11:54:18 GMT -5
Possibly the front office may even be thinking of Chris Davis at first, but that would just add to the blockage. I like Heyward, but he will get HUGE dollars and has never really put up big numbers. Not sure we can stay with the idea of not giving out contracts for 30+ year old pitchers. IF, and that is a giant if, we want to compete in 2016, we may have to go after one of those guys. I don't disagree, but I think people often lose sight of the fact he will be entering his age 26 season going into next season. For comparison's sake, Ellsbury wasn't even arb-eligible at the same age. I don't know what he'll get. 8/$175M might be too low. But if given a choice, I'd rather spend that sort of money on Heyward v. the 6/$150M it would take to sign Jordan Zimmermann. I think there are enough people involved in personnel decisions around the league that a corner outfielder who hits .290ish with maybe 15 homers is probably not going to get that kind of money. I definitely think we should check in and find out what his market's like, cause he'd be a great fit, and if we can get him at a reasonable price, that frees us up to deal someone like Margot as part of a package for a good starter
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Post by jdb on Aug 3, 2015 12:07:30 GMT -5
Imo Heyward isn't leaving the Cards. They liked him enough to trade Miller for him in hopes having him this year would give them an edge in resigning him. Since then they've corrected a flaw in his swing leading to a good season and they're set for a new TV deal.
Back to Eric's point I'd be open to dealing Swihart if they think Vazquez is an elite defensive C who could produce some good OBp. I'd prefer signing a top guy (Price or Cueto) and dealing for a good #2/#3. I'd prefer Carasco and wouldn't mind taking Bourne back to be a 4th OF. Start with Margot and Johnson and add another piece or two. Maybe Miley goes to a third team bc I think the 4/5 should be Porcello/ERod with Owens getting another year in AAA and on call for Buch when he goes down.
I'm not sure I'd want to go all in for Gray and start a package with Margot+Swihart. I think we could sign a top guy and trade for a 2/3.
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Post by notguilty on Aug 3, 2015 12:23:57 GMT -5
Imo Heyward isn't leaving the Cards. They liked him enough to trade Miller for him in hopes having him this year would give them an edge in resigning him. Since then they've corrected a flaw in his swing leading to a good season and they're set for a new TV deal. Back to Eric's point I'd be open to dealing Swihart if they think Vazquez is an elite defensive C who could produce some good OBp. I'd prefer signing a top guy (Price or Cueto) and dealing for a good #2/#3. I'd prefer Carasco and wouldn't mind taking Bourne back to be a 4th OF. Start with Margot and Johnson and add another piece or two. Maybe Miley goes to a third team bc I think the 4/5 should be Porcello/ERod with Owens getting another year in AAA and on call for Buch when he goes down. I'm not sure I'd want to go all in for Gray and start a package with Margot+Swihart. I think we could sign a top guy and trade for a 2/3. This is pretty much where I am. Only difference I have with you is if we can get Gray for Swihart+Margot+, I'll take my beat up Chevy Camarro and drive them to the airport myself.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Aug 3, 2015 12:33:35 GMT -5
How do you fix the biggest problem this team has - the pitching - if you put your big FA money in Heyward? Heyward's averaged 5.0 bWAR a year in his first 6 years, including a 5.4 bWAR pace this season. Yet because so much of that value is defensive, he won't get paid as a 5.0 WAR player. As I was pointing out last winter, he's worth more to us than almost any other team because of our big RF. Bradley's got to be on the team next year, either as a starter or in a platoon or bench role. Of the OFers who will be in the organization next year, Bradley has certainly had the second best season, and even if you keep everyone, you have two open roster spots no matter who plays where. And I would put the odds that Hanley will play 1B (or 3B) next year at at least 60%, maybe 70%. What they want to find out in the next two months is whether Hanley will do less defensive harm at 1B than in LF, and whether JBJ and Castillo represent a pair of starting OFers, a platoon pair, or (relatively unlikely) a pair of bench guys. Whether you have a place for Heyward depends on how that falls out; if you don't, it's likely that you need a new 1B instead. How do we improve the pitching? You trade for a cost-controlled young starter. Right now you have Blake Swihart and Javier Guerra blocked by better players (better for the time being in Swihart's case, but Swihart will always have the higher trade value to actual value ratio, and Vazquez is still a borderline All-Star). You also have two potentially elite 3B in Moncada and Devers, making the latter a guy you could conceivably trade, in the right deal. If you get very positive answers about JBJ and Castillo and/or can sign Heyward, Margot falls into the same category, a guy you could part with, reluctantly, in the right blockbuster. And if you're trading for a young starter, you can send one of Miley, Johnson, or Owens in the opposite direction (while still keeping Johnson or Owens as the 6th starter and Wright as the 7th). There may be no team in MLB better positioned to do this. Sonny Gray will always be available in the right deal. The Mets are certainly in a position to deal either Syndergaard or DeGrom to help their anemic offense, but with D'Arnaud, they don't need Swihart; what they need is a SS (assuming they move Flores back to 2B) and a pair of outfielders ... so that might have to be 3-team deal. I'm sure there are other possibilities. Yeah, we see things the same way then. I think the pitching gets fixed via a trade not a huge signing, because we need a young stud not a 30 year old. Getting one for Margot+ would allow us to invest in Heyward, who is a great fit. That's the avenue I would take, but we'll see.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 3, 2015 15:25:17 GMT -5
I need convincing with Cueto. He'll be 30 next year and only has hit 200 innings twice in his career. He may be peaking right now, and will get a six year deal. And some elbow soreness this year. Good times. I would go 6 on Price, offering an opt out after year 3 or 4 - whichever you could get away with. It's an appealing opportunity for max money guys (I am not sure Price is one of these as much as Scherzer and Grienke are) and may become more appealing to more pitchers depending on Grienke's success in the off-season if/when he exercises his. And to those who continue to say, "But if he's pitching well at age 33 you'll lose him to a rival if he opts out!" I would nod my head and say, you betcha. You're on the hook if you sign anyone, and taking the health gamble, but if he stays healthy and effective and wants to re-enter and upgrade salary after age 33 or 34, via con dios.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 16:16:34 GMT -5
Below is a list of the top 25 starting pitchers with current fWARs of 2.5 or better, with the age they will be next year.
For those of you concerned about acquiring 30-year old pitchers, it is interesting to note that the average age of these pitchers is 29.1 (29.6 with Burnett included). The youngest pitcher is Cole at 25. Gray is 26. Sale, Archer, Pineda, Bumgarner and Quintana are 27. The rest are between 28 and 32 except for Burnett who is 39.
If you believe, as I do, that the Sox absolutely have to add at least one ace-level pitcher by trade or FA signing, almost certainly that pitcher's name is on this list. Acquiring an ace much under the age of 30 obviously is much easier said than done.
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 28 Max Scherzer Nationals 32 Chris Sale White Sox 27 Corey Kluber Indians 30 Dallas Keuchel Astros 28 Chris Archer Rays 27 Zack Greinke* Dodgers 32 Jacob deGrom Mets 28 Jake Arrieta Cubs 30 Sonny Gray Athletics 26 David Price* Tigers 30 Gerrit Cole Pirates 25 Jon Lester Cubs 32 Clay Buchholz* Red Sox 31 Johnny Cueto* KC 30 Carlos Carrasco Indians 29 Michael Pineda Yankees 27 Jose Quintana White Sox 27 Lance Lynn Cardinals 29 Cole Hamels Rangers 32 Francisco Liriano Pirates 32 Tyson Ross Padres 29 A.J. Burnett* Pirates 39 Scott Kazmir* Astros 32 Madison Bumgarner Giants 27 Average age 29.6 without Burnett 29.1 * Possible FA in 2015
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 3, 2015 16:28:52 GMT -5
danr, I'd note that only one of those pitchers is older than 32. I think that's the point - nobody cares about the 30-year-old pitcher's age 30 season. It's how precipitous the drop-off is after that.
And Burnett just got hurt and is going to miss four weeks, apparently.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 3, 2015 16:39:53 GMT -5
I really don't understand how in the same post some of you who are complaining about the Hanley and Sandoval contracts are also advocating going 6+ years for Cueto at big dollars. Let's look at all the 30+ yr old big money pitchers:
Justin Verlander Cliff Lee CC Sabathia Jon Lester Adam Wainwright CJ Wilson Tim Lincecum
Notice some bad contracts in there? It's insanely stupid to continue to do the same thing over and over again and think it will work. Throwing big money at a player who's almost guaranteed to be done before the end of the contract being that move. I'd rather put a package together for Gray instead as at least then you know you will be getting huge surplus value. Carrasco is another good solution as he's very cost controlled and has fairly low mileage on his arm.
A move I'd love to see them do though is to start targeting previous highly ranked prospects who aren't viewed quite as high now. Gausman being the type of guy I'm talking about. I'd argue someone like Gausman is a good bet to be better than Cueto over the next 6 years at a fraction of the cost.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 17:00:30 GMT -5
danr, I'd note that only one of those pitchers is older than 32. I think that's the point - nobody cares about the 30-year-old pitcher's age 30 season. It's how precipitous the drop-off is after that. And Burnett just got hurt and is going to miss four weeks, apparently. Of course. It is a striking stat, isn't it? But if you are going to acquire an existing ace it is going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to avoid having some years in the contract that may be in the pitcher's decline period. Scherzer almost certainly isn't going to be a $30M pitcher five years from now. But he may be worth a lot more than $30M now if the Nationals win the WS and that would justify his contract. Deals of that magnitude only make sense if there is a reasonable chance that adding that player will be the difference-maker for the team. Thus, a reasonable argument could be made - I'm not making it yet but I might later depending on what else the Sox do - that the Sox might not be close enough to being a serious contender to justify a massive FA signing.
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