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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by thursty on Nov 4, 2015 18:03:24 GMT -5
and don't forget, I have it on very good authority that he had a 212+ as a Little Leaguer, and that's park adjusted
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 4, 2015 18:50:55 GMT -5
I heard he was very selfish taking walks as a little leaguer.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,122
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Post by jimoh on Nov 4, 2015 19:59:22 GMT -5
[...] You personally might be worried that whatever JBJ did last winter to make him the best hitter in all of the minors before posting a 121 wRC+ in 255 MLB PA might disappear (the overall numbers, BTW, being consistent with his career other than 2014), leaving us with the 2014 JBJ, but it would be insane to make a personnel move based on that possibility. [...] Call me "insane," but I think 100% of the GMs in baseball, including DD, will factor into their plans and willingness to trade him or trade for him the " possibility" that JBJ could again hit like he did in 2014. Why do you keep saying that people who don't buy your analyses are "insane"? Why do you talk like this? Why do you take interesting analyses and ruin them by adding this crazy talk? Why do you take analyses where you might actually convince people that your ideas are interesting or likely or possibly convincing, and insist they are 100% absolutely certain to be right? Do you think this is an effective way for an adult to argue?
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Post by soxcentral on Nov 4, 2015 20:48:18 GMT -5
Gordon also started out as a 3B, correct? So a potential move to 1B if we can move Hanley in the right deal or, more likely, when Hanley shifts to DH upon Papi's retirement could make him a nice fit short and long term, That would all happen around the time Margot or AB are hopefully ready.
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Post by thursty on Nov 4, 2015 20:58:23 GMT -5
For those who have a better sense of this than I (everyone?). is Margot expected to start the season at AAA next year?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 4, 2015 21:17:22 GMT -5
I've been a fan of Gordon for several years - but I just can't imagine his skill set aging well as such a high% of his value has been driven by base-running and defense. Here is the best comp I can think of for him (although has a higher BABIP and a bit less power and base-running ability) Gordon age 27-31 seasons: BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR 9.7 % 20.1 % .200 .358 .303 .376 .502 .382 140 3.6 35.6 4.1 6.6 10.1 % 19.4 % .160 .356 .294 .368 .455 .357 126 -0.6 21.1 7.3 5.5 7.4 % 20.1 % .156 .310 .265 .327 .422 .326 104 7.1 9.9 1.6 3.7 10.1 % 19.6 % .165 .310 .266 .351 .432 .346 122 5.7 21.1 17.9 6.6 11.6 % 21.8 % .161 .327 .271 .377 .432 .351 122 -0.6 10.2 2.2 2.8 www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5209&position=3B/OFCarlos Beltran age 27-31 seasons: BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR 13.0 % 14.3 % .280 .261 .267 .367 .548 .383 128 13.9 39.6 2.2 6.4 8.6 % 14.8 % .148 .292 .266 .330 .414 .323 96 6.2 2.6 -0.7 2.3 15.4 % 16.0 % .320 .263 .275 .388 .594 .408 148 9.3 48.3 12.3 7.8 10.8 % 17.5 % .249 .286 .276 .353 .525 .369 122 7.7 26.1 5.1 5.1 13.0 % 13.6 % .216 .297 .284 .376 .500 .375 129 9.8 35.3 14.8 7.3 Carlos Beltran age 32-35: 13.2 % 12.0 % .175 .352 .325 .415 .500 .393 144 0.9 20.1 -2.5 2.9 11.8 % 15.3 % .173 .275 .255 .341 .427 .332 106 -1.0 0.8 -1.7 0.7 11.9 % 14.7 % .225 .324 .300 .385 .525 .391 152 0.6 36.8 -14.5 4.3 10.5 % 20.0 % .227 .291 .269 .346 .495 .355 124 -0.8 17.1 -4.5 3.3 6.3 % 15.0 % .195 .314 .296 .339 .491 .359 131 0.7 21.5 -21.4 1.9 www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=589&position=OFBeltran isn't a perfect comp, but he's a guy who was a 'great' player instead of a 'good' player through his prime due to his defense and base-running - both of which fell off starting with his age 32 season. He was still a good player past his prime, but he relied heavily on power that Gordon doesn't have. This is a sample size of one, so clearly is just an example, but I just don't see Gordon being more than an average regular going forward - and perhaps less than that if he has to move to 1B due to diminished defensive skills.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2015 1:45:08 GMT -5
[...] You personally might be worried that whatever JBJ did last winter to make him the best hitter in all of the minors before posting a 121 wRC+ in 255 MLB PA might disappear (the overall numbers, BTW, being consistent with his career other than 2014), leaving us with the 2014 JBJ, but it would be insane to make a personnel move based on that possibility.[...] Call me "insane," but I think 100% of the GMs in baseball, including DD, will factor into their plans and willingness to trade him or trade for him the " possibility" that JBJ could again hit like he did in 2014. Why do you keep saying that people who don't buy your analyses are "insane"? Why do you talk like this? Why do you take interesting analyses and ruin them by adding this crazy talk? Why do you take analyses where you might actually convince people that your ideas are interesting or likely or possibly convincing, and insist they are 100% absolutely certain to be right? Do you think this is an effective way for an adult to argue? Well, yeah, that's not really what I meant. (And I might ask you: why do you insist on taking what I say literally, when, like everyone else here, I'm dashing off an opinion in shorthand while trying to live a life?) So let me rephrase that: it's not rational to base your off-season moves on there being a significant chance that JBJ reverts. He has roughly as much chance of being awful next year as anyone does*, and that's always more than zero, and hence literally a possibility. And you always want to have plans in place to cover any player being awful or missing the season with an injury. But it's simply not rational to say, we need to acquire a player now whose job will be to start instead of JBJ if JBJ is awful like he was in 2014. Because when you combine the odds of that happening with the marginal upgrade of player X over the current insurance plan, Brock Holt platooning with a player to be acquired, it's not worth the acquisition cost. Now, if what you mean in your bolded statement is that you think that DDo and every other GM will actually be legitimately concerned that JBJ may be below replacement-level at the plate next year, you certainly need to make that argument. My argument is that there is no known analytic basis for such a concern, and that DDo can be expected to know that, and to the extent that other GMs may have that fear (or, more importantly, be influenced by that fear even though they know it has no rational basis**), that means we will be selling low. And to tie this in to the original post, it can certainly be argued that Castillo isn't good enough to start for us and should be moved. But the fact that JBJ was awful in 2014 is not rationally connected to that decision. * A lot of folks studied what happens to guys after a catastrophic off-year when it happened to Mike Lowell, and the clear result was that they tend strongly to bounce back. It would seem to follow that those who did bounce back have no significant greater risk of another such year than players who never had one. ** An enormous amount of human psychology is based on the mismatch between what we know to be true rationally, and what we feel to be true, and especially what we fear to be true. I'm sure there are GMs who have at least some fear of flying, even though they know rationally that it's literally safer than walking down a flight of stairs. A GM with such a fear is very, very unlikely to give you true value for JBJ, even as he sits and stares at an in-house projection system pegging him at 110 wRC+ or whatever.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2015 1:51:02 GMT -5
and don't forget, I have it on very good authority that he had a 212+ as a Little Leaguer, and that's park adjusted Totally missing the point. Getting it backwards, in fact. You indeed ought to be skeptical of any assertion that a guy who has a .290 age-adjusted TAv his first two years in the minors will do that in MLB. I mean, Cecchini and Lavarnway say howdy. Those numbers don't work that way. But a guy who has a .289 in MLB is much more likely to do that again if he had a .290 his first two years in the minors, rather than .255. (And ditto if he had a .297 the same year in AAA, of course.) That's kind of obvious, actually.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,122
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Post by jimoh on Nov 5, 2015 5:46:11 GMT -5
Call me "insane," but I think 100% of the GMs in baseball, including DD, will factor into their plans and willingness to trade him or trade for him the " possibility" that JBJ could again hit like he did in 2014. Why do you keep saying that people who don't buy your analyses are "insane"? Why do you talk like this? Why do you take interesting analyses and ruin them by adding this crazy talk? Why do you take analyses where you might actually convince people that your ideas are interesting or likely or possibly convincing, and insist they are 100% absolutely certain to be right? Do you think this is an effective way for an adult to argue? Well, yeah, that's not really what I meant. (And I might ask you: why do you insist on taking what I say literally, when, like everyone else here, I'm dashing off an opinion in shorthand while trying to live a life?) [...] It takes very little time to avoid saying people who disagree with you are crazy or stupid. You could even take a post-it note and stick it on your monitor: "Don't say people who disagree with you are stupid or crazy" Maybe also: "say what you mean, mean what you say."
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Post by awall on Nov 5, 2015 6:05:59 GMT -5
Depending on the return possible for Castilo/JBJ, what about the option of using one of them in a package and signing Nori Aoki to a short-term deal? His option was just bought out.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 5, 2015 7:36:08 GMT -5
Depending on the return possible for Castilo/JBJ, what about the option of using one of them in a package and signing Nori Aoki to a short-term deal? His option was just bought out. If we're scraping the bottom of the barrel, I'd rather sign De Aza.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Nov 5, 2015 8:58:45 GMT -5
Just remembered that another FA outfielder we could consider is Zobrist, who has always defended well in RF. Projected to get 3 years/$42M according to fangraphs. I know he is 34, but he raked this year and played well in RF. That could be an absolute steal for us, and a perfect bridge to Moncada/Benintendi/Margot at an OF corner as Zobrist transitions into a utility/bench guy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 5, 2015 9:12:46 GMT -5
Gordon also started out as a 3B, correct? So a potential move to 1B if we can move Hanley in the right deal or, more likely, when Hanley shifts to DH upon Papi's retirement could make him a nice fit short and long term, That would all happen around the time Margot or AB are hopefully ready. Most of Gordon's value is in his defense in left. Over the last five years, he's a .281/.359/.450 hitter, which isn't bad, but considering that the contract he gets is going to factor in his defense, you'd be wasting a lot of money putting a Brandon Belt-esque bat at first base that could be a Brandon Belt-esque bat with plus defense in left field. For those who have a better sense of this than I (everyone?). is Margot expected to start the season at AAA next year? Teaching you to fish: www.soxprospects.com/2016.htmGiving you the fish anyway: I'd assume he starts in Portland and moves up by the break, if not a bit sooner. I also wouldn't be completely stunned if they did start him in AAA, but I'd say it's less than a 25% chance.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 5, 2015 9:40:59 GMT -5
Just remembered that another FA outfielder we could consider is Zobrist, who has always defended well in RF. Projected to get 3 years/$42M according to fangraphs. I know he is 34, but he raked this year and played well in RF. That could be an absolute steal for us, and a perfect bridge to Moncada/Benintendi/Margot at an OF corner as Zobrist transitions into a utility/bench guy. Not sure Zobrist would fit in RF in Fenway full-time. Isn't it a preference to have 2 CF types in Fenway. Not sure the upgrade would be worth 14 mil a year. Could use that for pitching. I do like his skillset, looked good at 2B in the WS.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 5, 2015 9:48:56 GMT -5
Just remembered that another FA outfielder we could consider is Zobrist, who has always defended well in RF. Projected to get 3 years/$42M according to fangraphs. I know he is 34, but he raked this year and played well in RF. That could be an absolute steal for us, and a perfect bridge to Moncada/Benintendi/Margot at an OF corner as Zobrist transitions into a utility/bench guy. Not sure Zobrist would fit in RF in Fenway full-time. Isn't it a preference to have 2 CF types in Fenway. Not sure the upgrade would be worth 14 mil a year. Could use that for pitching. I do like his skillset, looked good at 2B in the WS. Well I'd be assuming that's 14M minus 10M from a Castillo trade. Zobrist is a much better bat and I'm not sure he's all that much worse in RF. In Fenway you could throw Zobrist in LF and play Bradley in RF if you wanted too. Zobrist is almost just as good of a hitter as Gordon and he'd come at a fraction of a price at a time where we have two potential star COF in the minors. He also wouldn't cost a draft pick.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2015 10:01:53 GMT -5
I assume A-gon and CC told greinke ALL about BOS If Greinke spent any amount of time with either of them, he probably knows not to listen to them.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2015 10:10:09 GMT -5
Clearly the Sox need to add pitching. They need a top line starter and elite bullpen help. My top choice would be to sign Greinke. He should age better as he loses velocity so the fact he's 32 doesn't worry me as much. I don't buy the argument he can't pitch here because he had anxiety problems when he first reached the majors.
You could go the trade route for a Grey or Carrasco type but God only knows that that will cost. Whenever those deals are talked about here, it always seems like the consensus is it will take way more than it actually does and then it's justified after the fact. Like when Arizona dealt Upton or Tampa traded Price and even the Hamels deal recently. So it's hard to even speculate for something like a younger cost controlled starter. Who knows that the other teams will value?
They should also try to trade for Chapman. And if course I'll speculate now... Owens and Marrero for Chapman, especially if you can extend Chapman. They really screwed up last year not signing Miller so now they need to give up prospects and money to fix it.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 5, 2015 10:12:23 GMT -5
Not sure Zobrist would fit in RF in Fenway full-time. Isn't it a preference to have 2 CF types in Fenway. Not sure the upgrade would be worth 14 mil a year. Could use that for pitching. I do like his skillset, looked good at 2B in the WS. Well I'd be assuming that's 14M minus 10M from a Castillo trade. Zobrist is a much better bat and I'm not sure he's all that much worse in RF. In Fenway you could throw Zobrist in LF and play Bradley in RF if you wanted too. Zobrist is almost just as good of a hitter as Gordon and he'd come at a fraction of a price at a time where we have two potential star COF in the minors. He also wouldn't cost a draft pick. Agree on the Castillo deduction as long as we wouldn't have to subsidize it. I was thinking more of a JBJ move, in which he is making peanuts. Could be a L-R Zobrist-JBJ-Betts....I like it....I've also read that Zobrist is a good clubhouse guy, good professional, may help with the young core.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Nov 5, 2015 10:24:09 GMT -5
Well I'd be assuming that's 14M minus 10M from a Castillo trade. Zobrist is a much better bat and I'm not sure he's all that much worse in RF. In Fenway you could throw Zobrist in LF and play Bradley in RF if you wanted too. Zobrist is almost just as good of a hitter as Gordon and he'd come at a fraction of a price at a time where we have two potential star COF in the minors. He also wouldn't cost a draft pick. Agree on the Castillo deduction as long as we wouldn't have to subsidize it. I was thinking more of a JBJ move, in which he is making peanuts. Could be a L-R Zobrist-JBJ-Betts....I like it....I've also read that Zobrist is a good clubhouse guy, good professional, may help with the young core. Yeah never heard a bad word about him. I think it's a good fit for where we are now and where we want to be going forward. We'll see if we show any interest.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 5, 2015 12:30:16 GMT -5
Clearly the Sox need to add pitching. They need a top line starter and elite bullpen help. My top choice would be to sign Greinke. He should age better as he loses velocity so the fact he's 32 doesn't worry me as much. I don't buy the argument he can't pitch here because he had anxiety problems when he first reached the majors. You could go the trade route for a Grey or Carrasco type but God only knows that that will cost. Whenever those deals are talked about here, it always seems like the consensus is it will take way more than it actually does and then it's justified after the fact. Like when Arizona dealt Upton or Tampa traded Price and even the Hamels deal recently. So it's hard to even speculate for something like a younger cost controlled starter. Who knows that the other teams will value? They should also try to trade for Chapman. And if course I'll speculate now... Owens and Marrero for Chapman, especially if you can extend Chapman. They really screwed up last year not signing Miller so now they need to give up prospects and money to fix it. The Grienke landing spot is going to be interesting. If you think about it, he is in a slightly different situation than Price & Cueto, Grienke has made a ton of money already & Price & Cueto has not (relatively). He can basically go anywhere he wants & doesn't have to or need to take top dollar. This will be Price, Cueto, Gordon...most FA one shot to make the real dough. Got to be good to be him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2015 12:34:51 GMT -5
Sure he can but he didn't opt out to not make top dollar.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 5, 2015 12:59:21 GMT -5
Sure he can but he didn't opt out to not make top dollar. No, I'm sure he didn't. He is though, from Florida as is his wife, just had their 1st child this year, so maybe he wanted to be closer to home on the east coast. Only he & inner circle know why he opted out, but I just don't see it for the money as his great grandchildren are already set up.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 5, 2015 13:27:57 GMT -5
[...] You personally might be worried that whatever JBJ did last winter to make him the best hitter in all of the minors before posting a 121 wRC+ in 255 MLB PA might disappear (the overall numbers, BTW, being consistent with his career other than 2014), leaving us with the 2014 JBJ, but it would be insane to make a personnel move based on that possibility. [...] Call me "insane," but I think 100% of the GMs in baseball, including DD, will factor into their plans and willingness to trade him or trade for him the " possibility" that JBJ could again hit like he did in 2014. Why do you keep saying that people who don't buy your analyses are "insane"? Why do you talk like this? Why do you take interesting analyses and ruin them by adding this crazy talk? Why do you take analyses where you might actually convince people that your ideas are interesting or likely or possibly convincing, and insist they are 100% absolutely certain to be right? Do you think this is an effective way for an adult to argue? Maybe he really means that certain people may actually be crazy or stupid for disagreeing, because (typically for eric) these people are public figures, executives or journalists who are paid (ultimately by us) to know better, and our interests as fans and readers are better served by correctly criticizing their incompetence or failures? I mean, he's not calling you or people here crazy or stupid, as far as I can see. You're one of the bright, interesting guys here, IMHO, and I think eric would be the first to say that.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 5, 2015 18:22:43 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Nov 5, 2015 19:14:33 GMT -5
They're gonna need more than Lowe in the pen that's for sure. He has like 60 IP the last three years.
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