radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 3, 2015 16:47:54 GMT -5
Ben wanted to return the favor for that Miller-Rodriguez trade. I can't come with another explanation.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2015 16:55:01 GMT -5
Well, it's not a huge loss. But that probably means they will give De Aza more than a rotating DFA shot at sitting on the bench.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 3, 2015 17:03:33 GMT -5
Gunkel was fun to track but this isn't a big loss.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2015 17:06:17 GMT -5
I think this means that the Orioles are eating the entire contract, which means the Red Sox basically sold Gunkel for $3m or so (and maybe the ability to duck below the luxury tax limit). Which seems kind of dumb. For $3mm, trading a bottom of the top 30 prospect seems like a terrific deal. The question is whether De Aza was worth not waiting for him to clear waivers. He clearly is a step up over Peguero. The question is whether he is a step up from Nava (when healthy) or Victorino (due to his inability to stay on the field). I'm not sure of that.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2015 17:20:47 GMT -5
Be interesting to see which OF are on the team when everyone is healthy. Wouldn't be surprised to see Nava DFA'ed.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 3, 2015 17:30:45 GMT -5
Be interesting to see which OF are on the team when everyone is healthy. Wouldn't be surprised to see Nava DFA'ed. Yeah, with the "hitting philosophy must change" comments of JH last night, I think he's the one heading to the Cubs
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 3, 2015 17:33:45 GMT -5
David Laurila davidlaurilaqa · 47m47 minutes ago Good trade for Orioles, moving limited-talent De Aza for pitching prospect Joe Gunkel, who has deception in delivery & will pitch in bigs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 3, 2015 17:38:45 GMT -5
David Laurila davidlaurilaqa · 47m47 minutes ago Good trade for Orioles, moving limited-talent De Aza for pitching prospect Joe Gunkel, who has deception in delivery & will pitch in bigs. David's a great guy. As far as being a scout.... he's a great guy.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 3, 2015 17:47:01 GMT -5
David Laurila davidlaurilaqa · 47m47 minutes ago Good trade for Orioles, moving limited-talent De Aza for pitching prospect Joe Gunkel, who has deception in delivery & will pitch in bigs. David's a great guy. As far as being a scout.... he's a great guy. Well, he's probably a better scout than I am, which is of course as meaningful as saying he's a better environmentalist than Dick Cheney. All I know is I really, really like strikeouts, and Gunkel got them in bushels.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 3, 2015 19:42:00 GMT -5
Maybe I'm overthinking this, but the fact that they were willing to trade Gunkel probably doesn't bode really well for Daniel Nava.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 3, 2015 21:05:03 GMT -5
Gordon Edes @gordonedes · 17m17 minutes ago
Carlos Peguero called into Farrells office after game, where Cherington was also waiting. The Peguero era coming to a close, it appears
...hey guys you think this MIGHT be the countermove for de Aza?
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 3, 2015 21:20:25 GMT -5
Baltimore Orioles @orioles 1 min. The Orioles have acquired minor league RHP Joe Gunkel from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for OF Alejandro De Aza and cash considerations. Hmmm I think this means that the Orioles are eating the entire contract, which means the Red Sox basically sold Gunkel for $3m or so (and maybe the ability to duck below the luxury tax limit). Which seems kind of dumb. The overrating of Joe Gunkel has begun. Gunkel does look good thus far, but keep in mind that he's not a starting pitching prospect, and he's not a power arm. No matter their minor league performance, relief prospects who don't throw that hard really aren't that valuable. That's how Noe Ramirez has slipped through the Rule Five draft two years running. Gunkel's performance so far is probably enhanced by facing inexperienced hitters who aren't used to his arm slot. With a meh fastball and an average slider he won't dominate major leaguers in the same way. Plus, he's not going to be that effective versus lefties. You want another Joe Gunkel? You can probably find one in the draft.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 3, 2015 21:56:09 GMT -5
No Gunkel...No World Series.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 3, 2015 23:13:00 GMT -5
How does this affect the pre-season predictions contest? Do Gunkel's strikeouts for Baltimore still count?
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 4, 2015 7:15:40 GMT -5
I admit I was rooting for Gunkel. I have no clue about this guy. I pictured Gunkel in the pen for us. I guess there's more down in the minors.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 4, 2015 7:19:23 GMT -5
Gordon Edes @gordonedes · 17m17 minutes ago Carlos Peguero called into Farrells office after game, where Cherington was also waiting. The Peguero era coming to a close, it appears ...hey guys you think this MIGHT be the countermove for de Aza? I'm gonna go light a candle for him.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 4, 2015 12:05:16 GMT -5
“@timbritton: FYI: According to a source, Red Sox will pay about $1M of De Aza’s remaining salary this season.”
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 4, 2015 12:13:42 GMT -5
“@timbritton: FYI: According to a source, Red Sox will pay about $1M of De Aza’s remaining salary this season.” Which means that trading Gunkel saved them approx. $2.4mm, assuming De Aza remains on the roster for the remainder of the season.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 4, 2015 12:32:23 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier now11 seconds ago Farrell also said LHH De Aza can help give more regular breather to all OFs, including the struggling Castillo and Betts
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 4, 2015 12:46:42 GMT -5
No reason to mess with Pedroia right now since hes hot but i wonder if they would throw De Aza in the lead off spot at some point.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 4, 2015 12:56:03 GMT -5
I'm not all that excited about de Aza, but let's face it, Gunkel's upside is probably "fungible bullpen arm," so this really isn't too big a deal.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 4, 2015 13:03:41 GMT -5
No reason to mess with Pedroia right now since hes hot but i wonder if they would throw De Aza in the lead off spot at some point. Why would you ever put a 90 wRC player at lead off when his upside is maybe 105 wRC going forward at best? .
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sdl
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Who the hell is Stan Papi?
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Post by sdl on Jun 6, 2015 13:04:49 GMT -5
Looks like Gunkel didn't have to go far to join his new team. Perfect timing. Bowie just happened to be coming in to play the Sea Dogs when the de Aza deal was made. Gunkel faces Portland tonight.
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Post by arzjake on Jun 6, 2015 15:56:23 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier now11 seconds ago Farrell also said LHH De Aza can help give more regular breather to all OFs, including the struggling Castillo and Betts Who said "the struggling Castillo and Betts"? Spier or Farrell? Struggling Rookies is what its all about. Bringing in a 31 yr old OF to take away AB's from potential All Star caliber players is something you don't do. You play Betts Castillo Swihart and take the lumps. See Bogaerts, Pedroia and the list goes on.. If Cherington or Farrell's thinking is cutting into the playing time of rookies, they both should be fired..
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2015 6:35:44 GMT -5
So, is this guy for real, at all?
Well, in 2011 he had a 150 wRC+ in 171 PA. He got off to a fine start the next year, 121 through June 8th in 253 PA, then was 95 the rest of the way, 332 PA.
In 2013 he was 87 in his first 228 PA, through June 3. He then had a 140 wRC+ in his next 190 PA, through July 24. And then had a 76 in his final 257 PA.
In 2014 he had an 84 wRC+ in 439 PA for the White Sox. He was traded to the O's where he put up a 145 wRC+ in 89 PA.
This year, he had a 70 in 112 PA before his trade to Our Sox, where he has put up a 153 wRC+ in 103 PA. Is that Fenway? Nope; in fact, he's hit much better for us on the road.
So, I looked at the deep numbers for the four hot streaks (combining 2011 with the start of 2012; the overall wRC+ is 133). They have only one thing in common: an 8% increase in O-Contact%, from 57.3% to 62.0%, leading to a 16% drop in K rate, from .224 to .189. Other than that, they are a suprisingly disparate bunch; for instance, if you also look at his three weak stretches (560 PA 2012-3, 696 PA 2013-14, 112 PA this year), his hot streaks have his two highest and two lowest Pull%, and his three highest and single lowest GB%. He had a super-low O-Swing% in his 2013 hot streak (21.8% versus 28.9% before and 30.2% after), but this year he had a career-high 34.4% (with 50.7% contact) with the O's and 33.9% (with 62.1% contact) with us. In fact, no other metrics other than O-Contact% and K% correlate significantly to his wRC+ across the 7 stretches.
There's good reason to think he can continue raking for a while longer, but there's no reason to think that this represents anything other than a hot streak. He's hit like this -- 140 wRC+ -- just under 30% of the time as a pro starting in 2011, and much worse -- 85 wRC+ -- the other 70%. (There's definitely some partially or mostly real but inexplicable BABIP mojo happening when he's hot, something that can't be explained by Hard% or LD%.)
He'd be a great sell-high candidate at the trade deadline, whether we still look viable or not. In the former case, of course, a Nava resurgence would make that much more palatable. I have very little interest in bringing him back to fill the Nava bench role next year.
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