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Battle for a spot in the 2015 playoffs
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2015 10:27:04 GMT -5
Amfox can take the half empty view. I'll go half full. AL East: 1. NYY: 32-25, .561, -- (pace: 91-71) 2. TBR: 31-27, .534, 1.5 3. TOR: 29-30, .492, 4.0 4. BOS: 27-31, .466, 5.5 5. BAL: 26-30, .464, 5.5 AL Wild Card: KCR: 32-23, .582 HOU: 34-25, .576 NYY: 32-25, .561 --- ** MIN: 33-24, .579, +2.5 1. TBR: 31-27, .534, -- (pace: 87-75) 2. TEX: 30-27, .526, 0.5 3. DET: 30-28, .517, 1.0 4. TOR: 29-30, .492, 2.5 5. LAA: 28-29, .491, 2.5 6. CLE: 27-29, .482, 3.0 7. BOS: 27-31, .466, 4.0 8. BAL: 26-30, .464, 4.0 8. CWS: 26-30, .464, 4.0 9. SEA: 25-32, .439, 5.5 10. OAK: 23-36, .390, 8.5 Next six are against the O's and Jays, and present a great opportunity to gain some ground.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 9, 2015 10:59:50 GMT -5
Thank you. We are winning the east (even if we still get a protected pick ). I think the rough times are over, as the kids are starting to get their feet under them, and the rotation is straightening out -- Erod earning a spot and some consistency with the remainder.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 12, 2015 10:27:21 GMT -5
AL East:
1. NYY: 33-26, .559, -- (pace: 91-71) 2. TBR: 32-29, .525, 2.0 3. TOR: 31-30, .508, 3.0 4. BAL: 29-30, .492, 4.0 5. BOS: 27-34, .443, 7.0
AL Wild Card:
KCR: 34-23, .596 NYY: 33-26, .559 HOU: 34-27, .557 --- ** MIN: 33-26, .559, +2.0 1. TBR: 32-29, .525, -- (pace: 85-77) 2. TEX: 31-29, .517, 0.5 2. DET: 31-29, .517, 0.5 4. TOR: 31-30, .508, 1.0 5. LAA: 30-30, .500, 1.5 6. BAL: 29-30, .492, 2.0 7. CWS: 28-30, .483, 2.5 8. CLE: 28-31, .475, 3.0 9. SEA: 27-33, .450, 4.5 10. BOS: 27-34, .443, 5.0 11. OAK: 25-37, .403, 7.5
Despite getting swept and falling back three spots, Sox only lost 1 game on Tampa and somehow are only 5 games out. Ship needs to be righted and fast though, of course.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2015 11:20:34 GMT -5
I assume you realize that even to win the second Wild Card spot, the Sox probably would have to win about 88 games? To do that, the team would have to go 61-40 the rest of the way, a winning pace of .604, which is higher than the winning percentage of any team currently.
Things like that have happened in baseball, even with the Sox once upon a time. But with this team, so many things would have to improve that it truly would be a miracle if it occurred.
The only way I can imagine this happening now is if the Sox traded all their good prospects in the minors in the next few weeks for established quality major league players and replaced the position players who are not performing, as well as adding at least one ace starting pitcher and maybe two. That would be so out of character, and so short-sighted, that the odds of it happening are close to zero.
That is particularly true because the foundation for a multi-year championship caliber team already exists and that team is not far away. Maybe not next year but very possibly beginning the year after.
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2015 11:44:35 GMT -5
I assume you realize that even to win the second Wild Card spot, the Sox probably would have to win about 88 games? I'm not sure that's true. I suspect 88 wins might come close to winning the division, and 85-86 wins might win a second Wild Card spot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 12, 2015 12:30:32 GMT -5
As I noted, the Rays, currently occupying the second Wild Card, are on pace for 85 wins. The Yankees are on pace for 91.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 12, 2015 12:34:34 GMT -5
"Come September 2014, Mets manager Terry Collins believed his club would be playing meaningful games"
I share his dream of having "meaningful baseball in September."
Of course, Sox play NYY, TOR, TB in September, so the games will be meaningful for baseball, if not for the Sox.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 12, 2015 12:37:09 GMT -5
I assume you realize that even to win the second Wild Card spot, the Sox probably would have to win about 88 games? I'm not sure that's true. I suspect 88 wins might come close to winning the division, and 85-86 wins might win a second Wild Card spot. Of course that's assuming a Red Sox hot streak and playing near .575 ball the rest of the way and the bigger assumptions that out of the 8 teams in front of them, that practically none of them play as well the rest of the way, which seems highly unlikely to me. Seems more likely the Red Sox keep stumbling and bumbling their way through the rest of the season on the way to around 90 losses. It's not impossible, but frankly I don't believe (as if that's worth $0.02) that this team is capable of playing well enough to make the playoffs, let alone .500. The more I read about the playoffs, the more I remember that press conference where the football coach (was it Jim Mora?) stares at the questioner as if he's from Mars and says, "Playoffs???! You want to talk about playoffs???!! Playoffs? !"
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2015 12:42:44 GMT -5
I assume you realize that even to win the second Wild Card spot, the Sox probably would have to win about 88 games? I'm not sure that's true. I suspect 88 wins might come close to winning the division, and 85-86 wins might win a second Wild Card spot. That may be the case, but the fewest wins by the second Wild Card team so far in its brief existence was 88, I believe. And it appears that there are about five really good teams this year, maybe six who are playing better than 85-win ball. In any case, as presently constituted, this Red Sox team is not going to come close to 85 wins.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 12, 2015 14:34:56 GMT -5
I swear, there is another curse that makes the Yankees better than they should be and the Red Sox worse. Every crappy player who has been on 10 teams turns into a good player for them and the opposite is true here. Why?
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2015 14:45:11 GMT -5
I'm not sure that's true. I suspect 88 wins might come close to winning the division, and 85-86 wins might win a second Wild Card spot. Of course that's assuming a Red Sox hot streak and playing near .575 ball the rest of the way and the bigger assumptions that out of the 8 teams in front of them, that practically none of them play as well the rest of the way, which seems highly unlikely to me. Seems more likely the Red Sox keep stumbling and bumbling their way through the rest of the season on the way to around 90 losses. It's not impossible, but frankly I don't believe (as if that's worth $0.02) that this team is capable of playing well enough to make the playoffs, let alone .500. The more I read about the playoffs, the more I remember that press conference where the football coach (was it Jim Mora?) stares at the questioner as if he's from Mars and says, "Playoffs???! You want to talk about playoffs???!! Playoffs? !" Yeah, definitely unlikely. The odds were roughly 20% as of yesterday, though, which isn't nothing.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 12, 2015 15:35:38 GMT -5
Only in some people's world can the numbers 16.5 and 13.5 be "roughly 20".
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2015 16:54:19 GMT -5
Only in some people's world can the numbers 16.5 and 13.5 be "roughly 20". Fangraphs: 11.1% (division) + (.5)*(16.5%) (WC) = 19.4% BP: 10.8% (division) + (.5)*(13.5%) (WC) = 17.6% ADD: and all that includes me assuming that the Wild Card play-in game is not a real playoff game, which is the minority view.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 12, 2015 17:44:25 GMT -5
Only in some people's world can the numbers 16.5 and 13.5 be "roughly 20". Fangraphs: 11.1% (division) + (.5)*(16.5%) (WC) = 19.4% BP: 10.8% (division) + (.5)*(13.5%) (WC) = 17.6% ADD: and all that includes me assuming that the Wild Card play-in game is not a real playoff game, which is the minority view. But other than that, nice call out...
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 13, 2015 16:06:21 GMT -5
Are we still taking the half full view?
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Post by charliezink16 on Jun 13, 2015 16:08:56 GMT -5
Are we still taking the half full view? Yes. I'll be holding out hope until at least the all-star break. I'm not pulling for a high draft pick right now, I've done it 2 of the last 3 seasons and it's downright miserable.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2015 17:09:48 GMT -5
Sox are 0-6 since I started this thread, having lost games in pretty much every way possible. I'm closing it. Maybe we'll open it later in the season.
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