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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2015 10:25:15 GMT -5
I'd rather surrender Marrero than Guerra right now. Though Guerra has a higher ceiling, Marrero is more ML ready, which should appeal to the Padres or another team with a SS need. Marrero doesn't fit with the Sox right now. And Guerra, who's a few years away, may find a different landscape when he's ready. Guerra certainly has more value to the Sox than Marrero. Marrero might be major league ready, at least defensively he is. Guerra might be a guy who replaces Bogaerts as SS when Bogaerts leaves or he could push Bogaerts to 3b by 2019. I wouldn't be too anxious to give up Guerra for a short-term solution. I like Ross, buy my concern is that he pitches in the big ballpark in SD which deflates ERAs, plus his command is spotty. I wouldn't be surprised if that made him a five inning, 100 pitcher if they did get him. So I'm not too anxious to surrender Margot, who is only 22, and still has plenty of room for development with the tools he has. I'd be cool with Bradley, Marrero and Johnson, but I doubt that would get it done.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2015 10:35:29 GMT -5
I'd rather surrender Marrero than Guerra right now. Though Guerra has a higher ceiling, Marrero is more ML ready, which should appeal to the Padres or another team with a SS need. Marrero doesn't fit with the Sox right now. And Guerra, who's a few years away, may find a different landscape when he's ready. Guerra certainly has more value to the Sox than Marrero. Marrero might be major league ready, at least defensively he is. Guerra might be a guy who replaces Bogaerts as SS when Bogaerts leaves or he could push Bogaerts to 3b by 2019. I wouldn't be too anxious to give up Guerra for a short-term solution. I like Ross, buy my concern is that he pitches in the big ballpark in SD which deflates ERAs, plus his command is spotty. I wouldn't be surprised if that made him a five inning, 100 pitcher if they did get him. So I'm not too anxious to surrender Margot, who is only 22, and still has plenty of room for development with the tools he has. I'd be cool with Bradley, Marrero and Johnson, but I doubt that would get it done. Wouldn't think so.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2015 10:56:08 GMT -5
Doesn't Ross have two years and Cashner only one? Also Margot is at that level where a lot of top prospects fade out. We've seen Cechini go from a top 25-50 guy and JBJ have a few years of struggles. And then some don't fade out. I'd rather take my lumps on Cecchini and JBJ so that we don't miss out on Betts.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jul 31, 2015 10:59:26 GMT -5
What would the Pads want for Tyson Ross? I'd guess Owens, Margot and a SS prospect? I'd certainly do Johnson, Bradley, and Marrero. But would Preller? Probably not. And if Kimbrel was involved, then you're talking something a lot more significant. The Red Sox are likely to want to trade one of JBJ/Margot and one of Johnson/Owens for a starting pitcher, since they are the "excess" prospects. SD is talking to MFY about Kimbrel for Mateo, with MFY assuming all of Kimbrel's contract. Mateo and Guerra are reasonably close, prospect-wise. Earlier rumors were centering around Ross-for-Baez, so I would think a Margot+ deal would make sense. Personally, I think the Red Sox name being dropped this morning is simply a ploy to get MFY to up its offer and I'd rather have Carrasco in any case. There is no such thing as "excess" prospects. Manuel Margot has a good chance to be the best OF in the Sox system not named Betts. The Red Sox should be trying to develop Castillo and Bradley Jr - neither of which has any real trade value right now -- into players whom could be traded when Margot is ready. Prospects, or at least the really top ones, do not grow on trees. There are no more than a half a dozen to a dozen impact players in any draft. Their value, in general, far exceeds the return in trades. A team headed for its third last place finish in four years shouldn't be LOOKING to trade potential impact prospects (i.e. Swihart, Margot, Devers, Espinoza, Moncada).
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jul 31, 2015 11:11:53 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe 23m23 minutes ago #RedSox have high-end prospects and financial might. That could help them shed a bad contract. Padres once interested in Sandoval.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 31, 2015 11:55:12 GMT -5
Wait you think Ross is a 2/3, is young, cheap and under team control and you don't think he's worth Margot? For one I think Margot is the most overrated prospect to come through the system in years. Good solid top 100 prospect but I don't see the 14th best prospect in baseball like some do.
Second Ross is a very overrated player in this own right! Do you really want a pitcher with iffy control and a whip of 1.39 in the AL East? Sure he strikes a lot of guys out and has a nice era, but it screams fluke to me the era that is.
I think Ross is way more over rated than Margot and I would not trade them even up. The Red Sox need some swing and miss pitchers and I would not trade one of the best prospects for someone like Ross who likely will be no better than Miley. I would rather the Red Six sell high on Holt and Koji and then get what they can for Napoli and possibly Miley. Bring up Johnson, Owens, etc and see how they do. Re-group thus offseason to build a pitching staff around their young pitchers and a couple of top free agent pitchers. I'm confused. First you say he's a 2/3, now he's way overrated and only as good as Miley, who's a 4/5. That being said Miley gives you a quality start over 50% of the time(11 out of 21 starts). That's not bad for a 4/5 and something that would improve the team next year. As much as I don't like Ross I think he could be a little better then Miley.
I don't even really like Ross, but I would trade Margot for him straight up really quick. Margot value is likely as high as it will ever be. He either improves and moves into the untradeable list or more likely his value starts to decline. Also we don't need to trade Miley if you want a chance at winning next year.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,802
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Post by mobaz on Jul 31, 2015 12:08:44 GMT -5
I'm confused. First you say he's a 2/3, now he's way overrated and only as good as Miley, who's a 4/5. That being said Miley gives you a quality start over 50% of the time(11 out of 21 starts). That's not bad for a 4/5 and something that would improve the team next year. As much as I don't like Ross I think he could be a little better then Miley.
I don't even really like Ross, but I would trade Margot for him straight up really quick. Margot value is likely as high as it will ever be. He either improves and moves into the untradeable list or more likely his value starts to decline. Also we don't need to trade Miley if you want a chance at winning next year.
Our biggest "problem" now is the number of prospects we have that are "untradeable" makes it harder to make a move. Betts, Boegarts, E-Rod, Blake, Moncada, Espinoza, Devers for some, Margot for others, now maybe Guerra. The team can't use all the prospects we have, and we can't really wait them ALL out to figure out hits (a Betts) and misses (a Cecchini). For the right major league talent it makes all the sense in the world to make a move, even if it hurts.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2015 12:13:50 GMT -5
I'm confused. First you say he's a 2/3, now he's way overrated and only as good as Miley, who's a 4/5. That being said Miley gives you a quality start over 50% of the time(11 out of 21 starts). That's not bad for a 4/5 and something that would improve the team next year. As much as I don't like Ross I think he could be a little better then Miley.
I don't even really like Ross, but I would trade Margot for him straight up really quick. Margot value is likely as high as it will ever be. He either improves and moves into the untradeable list or more likely his value starts to decline. Also we don't need to trade Miley if you want a chance at winning next year.
Our biggest "problem" now is the number of prospects we have that are "untradeable" makes it harder to make a move. Betts, Boegarts, E-Rod, Blake, Moncada, Espinoza, Devers for some, Margot for others, now maybe Guerra. The team can't use all the prospects we have, and we can't really wait them ALL out to figure out hits (a Betts) and misses (a Cecchini). For the right major league talent it makes all the sense in the world to make a move, even if it hurts. I'm glad you put "problem" in quotes. I think the best team is going to be eventually built through the farm, not by trading 3-4 of them for a guy with 2 years of control or whatever.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jul 31, 2015 12:15:43 GMT -5
fun wild speculation tweet: painful, but also interesting;
CJ @hoggamania 26m26 minutes ago @redsoxstats Red Sox: Kimbrel, Ross Cubs: Uehara, Shields Padres: Castro, Sandoval, Devers, JBJ, $$$ (from BOS)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2015 12:19:42 GMT -5
fun wild speculation tweet: painful, but also interesting; CJ @hoggamania 26m26 minutes ago @redsoxstats Red Sox: Kimbrel, Ross Cubs: Uehara, Shields Padres: Castro, Sandoval, Devers, JBJ, $$$ (from BOS) He needs to stop. Castro is about as valuable as JBJ with a salary 20 times higher and that's the only thing the Cubs are giving up? And I'm sorry, but SD is not going to shed both Shields' and Kimbrel's salaries and also get money back.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,802
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Post by mobaz on Jul 31, 2015 12:23:26 GMT -5
Our biggest "problem" now is the number of prospects we have that are "untradeable" makes it harder to make a move. Betts, Boegarts, E-Rod, Blake, Moncada, Espinoza, Devers for some, Margot for others, now maybe Guerra. The team can't use all the prospects we have, and we can't really wait them ALL out to figure out hits (a Betts) and misses (a Cecchini). For the right major league talent it makes all the sense in the world to make a move, even if it hurts. I'm glad you put "problem" in quotes. I think the best team is going to be eventually built through the farm, not by trading 3-4 of them for a guy with 2 years of control or whatever. I'd rather go that route but I don't see how we improve the rotation without spending on a $200M 30-year-old or giving up prospects. Owens/Johnson are not going to be premium starters next year, so we either rebuild a third season with a $175M payroll (with all our most important players developing further) or we start to cash in assets. I think the hard work will come in the winter with a new GM in place to do it.
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Post by arzjake on Jul 31, 2015 12:52:10 GMT -5
fun wild speculation tweet: painful, but also interesting; CJ @hoggamania 26m26 minutes ago @redsoxstats Red Sox: Kimbrel, Ross Cubs: Uehara, Shields Padres: Castro, Sandoval, Devers, JBJ, $$$ (from BOS) Bull on Padres end, maybe sandoval or Castro but not both. No way.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2015 13:03:48 GMT -5
Don't think there is a three-team deal that works (been thinking about it for a while).
I'm thinking about the following rough values:
Sandoval (4/$77.4mm remaining after 2015) = Shields (3/$65mm remaining after 2015)
Kimbrel (2/$25mm remaining after 2015) = Guerra (Mateo equivalent)
Ross (2 years arb remaining after 2015) = Margot/Johnson ++ or JBJ/Owens ++
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Post by larrycook on Aug 1, 2015 19:38:31 GMT -5
I have always said that I thought that the decision to sign rameriez and sandavol was not made in a vacuum.
Is the decision by luchino to step down evidence that bc was extremely strongly encouraged by luchino to make those two terrible signings?
It can't be coincidence, could it?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 1, 2015 20:59:38 GMT -5
Larry Lucchino turns 70 in a month. It was widely rumored that this would be his last year as President and CEO. I don't see the connection.
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