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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 12:19:30 GMT -5
Of the players who I think are legitimate trade candidates on the current roster: Guys who I would be comfortable moving for reasonable value: - Koji Uehara
- Mike Napoli
- Shane Victorino
- Ryan Hanigan
- Alejandro De Aza
Guys I'm only moving if I get a knockout offer: - Junichi Tazawa
- Clay Buchholz
- Daniel Nava
- Brock Holt
- Alexi Ogando
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 12:33:52 GMT -5
I generally disagree with the idea that the Red Sox cannot compete next year. True-talent-wise, I still think the current roster is something like an 85-win team (Fangraphs projects them to play .531 (86 win pace) going forward), BP projects them to play .524 (85 win pace) going forward). Considering the hole they've dug for themselves, that's not going to be enough to compete for the playoffs this year.
But this absolutely could be a playoff team next year. Sandoval is not this bad. Hanley will improve defensively. Betts, Swihart and Castillo will improve, as Bogaerts has this year. The rotation will pitch closer to their peripherals going forward, and are a solidly middle-of-the-pack group. The bullpen is kind of meh, but there are intriguing guys on the horizon (Eduardo Escobar, Barnes, Light) and that's always the easiest to rebuild.
As such, while I'm comfortable trading guys who are either pending free agents (Napoli, Victorino, De Aza) or guys who are significant age-related-decline risks (Uehara, Hanigan), I'm hesitant to trade guys like Tazawa and Buchholz unless I get a knock-my-socks-off-type offer.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 14, 2015 13:20:01 GMT -5
Of the players who I think are legitimate trade candidates on the current roster: Guys who I would be comfortable moving for reasonable value: - Koji Uehara
- Mike Napoli
- Shane Victorino
- Ryan Hanigan
- Alejandro De Aza
Guys I'm only moving if I get a knockout offer: - Junichi Tazawa
- Clay Buchholz
- Daniel Nava
- Brock Holt
- Alexi Ogando
I'd hate to see Koji go, just because I like him so much as a player, but he's probably got some real value. I'd be fine with them moving Holt so long as they got equivalent value (which is fairly high, since he's either a reasonable 2b everyday player or an excellent utility player). Otherwise, I'd say I pretty much fully agree. Getting what they can for Materson/Craig would be a bonus.
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Post by tomhouse on Jun 14, 2015 15:25:54 GMT -5
FWIW, I think this is backwards. I would identify players I want for now and 2016 and then consider who I need to deal to get them with an eye on what the other teams' needs are.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 14, 2015 15:52:47 GMT -5
I generally disagree with the idea that the Red Sox cannot compete next year. True-talent-wise, I still think the current roster is something like an 85-win team (Fangraphs projects them to play .531 (86 win pace) going forward), BP projects them to play .524 (85 win pace) going forward). Considering the hole they've dug for themselves, that's not going to be enough to compete for the playoffs this year. But this absolutely could be a playoff team next year. Sandoval is not this bad. Hanley will improve defensively. Betts, Swihart and Castillo will improve, as Bogaerts has this year. The rotation will pitch closer to their peripherals going forward, and are a solidly middle-of-the-pack group. The bullpen is kind of meh, but there are intriguing guys on the horizon (Eduardo Escobar, Barnes, Light) and that's always the easiest to rebuild. As such, while I'm comfortable trading guys who are either pending free agents (Napoli, Victorino, De Aza) or guys who are significant age-related-decline risks (Uehara, Hanigan), I'm hesitant to trade guys like Tazawa and Buchholz unless I get a knock-my-socks-off-type offer. What makes believe that? I don't think you could get anything remotley valuable for this guys.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 16:34:10 GMT -5
Sandoval has a long track record of being at least an average defender and a good hitter. Hanley's defense is more on faith, but he certainly can't be any worse defensively than he's been so far, and a lot of his miscues are the kind of mistakes you expect a player new to the OF to make (inability to read the ball off the wall, bad routes, overthrowing the cutoff man). He has the raw tools to play a decent OF, and I don't completely buy into the narrative that he lacks the work ethic/desire to get better. I think he'll make at least marginal improvements there.
I don't expect to get a lot for the guys I'm willing to move. I'm fine with that-- it's more to open up playing time and save some salary.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 14, 2015 16:51:56 GMT -5
Sandoval has a long track record of being at least an average defender and a good hitter. Hanley's defense is more on faith, but he certainly can't be any worse defensively than he's been so far, and a lot of his miscues are the kind of mistakes you expect a player new to the OF to make (inability to read the ball off the wall, bad routes, overthrowing the cutoff man). He has the raw tools to play a decent OF, and I don't completely buy into the narrative that he lacks the work ethic/desire to get better. I think he'll make at least marginal improvements there. I don't expect to get a lot for the guys I'm willing to move. I'm fine with that-- it's more to open up playing time and save some salary. We're talking future performances not past performances and this is a hitter who has been declining with a serious regularity: 2012: 118 wRC+ 2013: 116 wRC+ 2014: 111 wRC+ As for his defense, it's been slightly above average over the last three years so when you consider his body type and injury history I think he's heading in the wrong direction...Maybe he'll into a 103 wRC+ type of hitter for a year or 2 (If you try to hide him as much as possible against LHP) with a -3 DRS. That's what? 1.5-2 Wins? Considering the salary and the commitment, we're screwed. As for Hanley, I buy into the lack of desire to get better: The guy turned himself from a 50 SB threat to one of the worst baserunners in baseball (The memory of him losing the count for outs is still vivid in my memory) So yeah, I respectfully disagree with your optimistic vision.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 14, 2015 16:55:33 GMT -5
Of the players who I think are legitimate trade candidates on the current roster: Guys who I would be comfortable moving for reasonable value: - Koji Uehara
- Mike Napoli
- Shane Victorino
- Ryan Hanigan
- Alejandro De Aza
Guys I'm only moving if I get a knockout offer: - Junichi Tazawa
- Clay Buchholz
- Daniel Nava
- Brock Holt
- Alexi Ogando
It may be heresy, but the Red Sox will have to ask Ortiz if he's willing to be moved to a playoff contender (assuming they guarantee the 2016 option, of course). Ortiz then frees up DH for Hanley and allows for a Castillo/Betts/Bradley OF. If they trade Ortiz, then the Red Sox also have to trade Victorino and Koji. Not sure what spot you are looking to open up by trading Napoli - Holt? Shaw? Also, I don't see the point of trading Hanigan; he takes over for Leon and he and Swihart split time. De Aza becomes your 4th OF, unless you somehow believe that Nava will be able to bounce back fully (I don't). I'm still on the fence with Buchholz, Ogando and Tazawa. My guess is that I'd keep Tazawa for now, unless blown away. I don't think we'll get value for Buchholz or Ogando, so my guess is that they stay under this scenario.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 17:03:39 GMT -5
We're talking future performances not past performances and this is a hitter who has been declining with a serious regularity: 2012: 118 wRC+ 2013: 116 wRC+ 2014: 111 wRC+ As for his defense, it's been slightly above average over the last three years so when you consider his body type and injury history I think he's heading in the wrong direction...Maybe he'll into a 103 wRC+ type of hitter for a year or 2 (If you try to hide him as much as possible against LHP) with a -3 DRS. That's what? 1.5-2 Wins? Considering the salary and the commitment, we're screwed. As for Hanley, I buy into the lack of desire to get better: The guy turned himself from a 50 SB threat to one of the worst baserunners in baseball (The memory of him losing the count for outs is still vivid in my memory) So yeah, I respectfully disagree with your optimistic vision. The best predictor of future performance is past performance. Sandoval has always been fat and has been a very productive player in spite of his weight. I don't think a 7 point decline in wRC+ over three years is much of a trend, and you should never extrapolate trend lines like that. If you disagree, I'd be happy to make a friendly bet that he exceeds a 103 wRC+ over the rest of the season. As for Hanley, you don't become a career 132 wRC+ hitter if you're not willing to put in the effort. He'll never be a high baseball IQ guy, but repetitions and muscle memory helps everyone. By my eyes, he's already made minor improvements in terms of reading the ball off the wall. He should at least get the rest of the season out there.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 17:13:35 GMT -5
It may be heresy, but the Red Sox will have to ask Ortiz if he's willing to be moved to a playoff contender (assuming they guarantee the 2016 option, of course). Ortiz then frees up DH for Hanley and allows for a Castillo/Betts/Bradley OF. If they trade Ortiz, then the Red Sox also have to trade Victorino and Koji. Not sure what spot you are looking to open up by trading Napoli - Holt? Shaw? Also, I don't see the point of trading Hanigan; he takes over for Leon and he and Swihart split time. De Aza becomes your 4th OF, unless you somehow believe that Nava will be able to bounce back fully (I don't). I'm with you that the best move on paper would be to trade Ortiz. I'm just very skeptical that the front office would be willing to do so. Ortiz might be willing to approve a trade, but I think they'd have to burn bridges to get him there. Fair point re: Napoli. My thinking was that he's unlikely to play well enough to make it worth offering him the QO, so you might as well move him. It would open up some playing time for Nava (who I would not write off) or Craig, but that's not necessarily an imperative. I'm not sure Hanigan makes the roster next year, and you might be able to get more for him midseason than you would during the coming offseason.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 14, 2015 17:15:01 GMT -5
I would target Carlos Gomez. You can buy a tiny bit low on him, and move Mookie to an OF corner. He'd be a great addition long term if we have the money to extend him.
I don't think we should be big sellers, as we have a competitive roster for 2016.
I would also talk with Houston and try to sell some pitching for Singleton.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 14, 2015 17:25:41 GMT -5
Maybe he'll into a 103 wRC+ type of hitter for a year or 2 (If you try to hide him as much as possible against LHP) with a -3 DRS. That's what? 1.5-2 Wins? Considering the salary and the commitment, we're screwed. The best predictor of future performance is past performance. Sandoval has always been fat and has been a very productive player in spite of his weight. I don't think a 7 point decline in wRC+ over three years is much of a trend, and you should never extrapolate trend lines like that. If you disagree, I'd be happy to make a friendly bet that he exceeds a 103 wRC+ over the rest of the season. As for Hanley, you don't become a career 132 wRC+ hitter if you're not willing to put in the effort. He'll never be a high baseball IQ guy, but repetitions and muscle memory helps everyone. By my eyes, he's already made minor improvements in terms of reading the ball off the wall. He should at least get the rest of the season out there. The offensive decline correlates with his aging curve, So yes I think he'll average 103-105 wRC+ over the next 2 seasons...As for Hanley, if you think that he'll turn from the worst fielder in baseball (UZR/150 -36.7) to a slightly better than that with repetitions, we'll remain in the Adam Dunn defense mediocrity territory. I think they should stop this travesty and call JBJ and play him fulltime and see what we have with him.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 14, 2015 17:27:39 GMT -5
I'd move Clay to reasonable value on jmei's list. A guy who spent his 20's hurt shouldn't require a blow away deal to move after 30 , even with his contract.
I wouldn't move Hanigan . The sox found out this year what happens when you don't have solid catching.
The rest of the list I agree with.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 14, 2015 18:26:47 GMT -5
About the only guys I'm definitely keeping are; Pedroia, Bogaerts, E-Rod, Tazawa, Mookie and Swihart. Willing to deal everyone else. Of course, we're stuck with Hanley and Tubby because of their contracts. They aren't going anywhere. I would like to bring Ortiz back for a swan song next year with the note to him that he's hitting against righties only. Hanley will DH against lefties.
There isn't a great team out there. Literally, every team that makes the playoffs has a shot. Meaning there are 12-15 contenders.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 18:31:35 GMT -5
The offensive decline correlates with his aging curve, So yes I think he'll average 103-105 wRC+ over the next 2 seasons... Those were his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons. This is his age 28 season. I don't think it's age-related decline.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 14, 2015 18:38:45 GMT -5
The offensive decline correlates with his aging curve, So yes I think he'll average 103-105 wRC+ over the next 2 seasons... Those were his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons. This is his age 28 season. I don't think it's age-related decline. We're talking about a player with a unique body type and skill set (doing damage with balls out of the strike zone), I think the decline could be unique also.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 14, 2015 18:54:32 GMT -5
Those were his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons. This is his age 28 season. I don't think it's age-related decline. We're talking about a player with a unique body type and skill set (doing damage with balls out of the strike zone), I think the decline could be unique also. I'm going to try that Unique Body Type Line. I'll let you guys know how it works.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 14, 2015 18:54:45 GMT -5
. Of course, we're stuck with Hanley and Tubby because of their contracts. They aren't going anywhere. I would like to bring Ortiz back for a swan song next year with the note to him that he's hitting against righties only. Hanley will DH against lefties. I wonder if the Padres would be willing to move kemp for sandavol? With Ortiz hitting taters again, maybe the twins would be interested, especially if we kick in some cash.
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Post by jdb on Jun 14, 2015 20:57:07 GMT -5
I agree with Jemi's list but would hope to keep Hannigan to groom Swihart especially with his knowledge of the AL East. I think that'd go along way.
What type of value would Koji have? I'd hate for us to give up a ton for a 40 year old pitcher due $9 million in 2016. I think we'd have to eat most of that 2016 salary. I wonder if there's a team out there that would want Miley?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 14, 2015 22:41:16 GMT -5
The best predictor of future performance is past performance. Sandoval has always been fat and has been a very productive player in spite of his weight. I don't think a 7 point decline in wRC+ over three years is much of a trend, and you should never extrapolate trend lines like that. If you disagree, I'd be happy to make a friendly bet that he exceeds a 103 wRC+ over the rest of the season. As for Hanley, you don't become a career 132 wRC+ hitter if you're not willing to put in the effort. He'll never be a high baseball IQ guy, but repetitions and muscle memory helps everyone. By my eyes, he's already made minor improvements in terms of reading the ball off the wall. He should at least get the rest of the season out there. The offensive decline correlates with his aging curve, So yes I think he'll average 103-105 wRC+ over the next 2 seasons...As for Hanley, if you think that he'll turn from the worst fielder in baseball (UZR/150 -36.7) to a slightly better than that with repetitions, we'll remain in the Adam Dunn defense mediocrity territory. I think they should stop this travesty and call JBJ and play him fulltime and see what we have with him. I agree with what you've been saying re: Hanley and Sandoval. Sandoval has been in decline the past few years. It's easy to forget this when you watch him in the post-season, but the numbers indicate the decline clearly. The Sox like to sign free agents who are younger than 30 normally, which Sandoval is, but with his bodytype, I think he has aged faster than his age indicates. His best years were when he was around 24, 25 years old or so. I think his contract will be brutal, particularly by year 3. I'd be surprised if the Sox didn't have to eat his contract by year 4 or 5. The problem with Hanley in LF, beyond his awful defense, is that the Sox don't get a chance to see if Bradley, a vastly superior defensive player, has become a major league hitter. And they've spent $72 million to see what Rusney Castillo can do. Both Bradley and Castillo need to play every day as does Betts. The three of them together should cover a lot of ground in the outfield, although the jury is out on them as to whether they can cumulatively provide enough offense for the outfield.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 14, 2015 22:54:25 GMT -5
I generally disagree with the idea that the Red Sox cannot compete next year. True-talent-wise, I still think the current roster is something like an 85-win team (Fangraphs projects them to play .531 (86 win pace) going forward), BP projects them to play .524 (85 win pace) going forward). Considering the hole they've dug for themselves, that's not going to be enough to compete for the playoffs this year. But this absolutely could be a playoff team next year. Sandoval is not this bad. Hanley will improve defensively. Betts, Swihart and Castillo will improve, as Bogaerts has this year. The rotation will pitch closer to their peripherals going forward, and are a solidly middle-of-the-pack group. The bullpen is kind of meh, but there are intriguing guys on the horizon (Eduardo Escobar, Barnes, Light) and that's always the easiest to rebuild. As such, while I'm comfortable trading guys who are either pending free agents (Napoli, Victorino, De Aza) or guys who are significant age-related-decline risks (Uehara, Hanigan), I'm hesitant to trade guys like Tazawa and Buchholz unless I get a knock-my-socks-off-type offer. I have to disagree with Fangraphs. I thought when the season began the Sox true talent would get them to 85 wins, but I was wrong. I'm not even sure they are a 75 win talented team. If the Red Sox roster talent is 85 wins, then everybody else's roster talent has to be about 90 - 95 wins. I think the Red Sox talent is being overestimated, and expectations need to be recalibrated. Keep in mind, that beyond the catching position, this team has been very healthy, and yet, they are deficient in every facet of the game. Most of the starters in the rotation carry ERAs that are in the replacement level area - around or above 5 in an era when the league average is around 4. I know FIP says they're not THAT bad, but they really have been. Maybe it's the defense that's contributing to it, but there are a lot of baseballs going where the defense ain't. It can't all be luck. We know that bullpen carries variances from year-to-year, but in this era of power pitching out of the bullpen, the Sox are behind the curve. They don't feature the flame throwers that other teams have. Perhaps Barnes and Light rectify that next year, but I'd have trouble expecting that. The offense features guys who will get better. Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart will be better. I hope Castillo establishes himself and doesn't wind up to be some type of overreaction to the Red Sox not winning the bidding for Abreu. But the rest of the guys - Ortiz, Hanley, Pedroia, Sandoval - their best days are in the past, and only Pedroia and Ramirez, if they stay healthy, can be expected to still play at a high level. Ortiz and Sandoval can't hit lefties anymore. You mentioned Nava, whose career year of 2013 is long gone. He'd make a decent pinch hitter against righties, but I don't see him having much more value than that. The Red Sox don't have talent to offer in July that should return much, unless another GM gets really stupid. The Sox will probably hold onto Buchholz and Tazawa. Napoli could go. They can lose 90 plus games with Travis Shaw just as easily as they could with Napoli. Other than that, I really would be surprised if the Sox did much. I don't think another team will take Uehara's 2016 season and contract, but we'll see. Doubt Ogando or D'Aza, have much trade value. I think the Sox like Holt's versatility and would hesitate to trade him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2015 2:40:00 GMT -5
I have to disagree with Fangraphs. I thought when the season began the Sox true talent would get them to 85 wins, but I was wrong. I'm not even sure they are a 75 win talented team. If the Red Sox roster talent is 85 wins, then everybody else's roster talent has to be about 90 - 95 wins. I think the Red Sox talent is being overestimated, and expectations need to be recalibrated. Keep in mind, that beyond the catching position, this team has been very healthy, and yet, they are deficient in every facet of the game. When you include pitch-framing, the catcher injuries have been a 5 win hit (per season) just by themselves. Maybe 6. That's immense. They have not really been deficient in fielding. They have been +15 runs saved except for two guys who are combined -22, one guy who has always been average and one guy playing a new position. The more your suck is concentrated into fewer players, the more fixable your problem is. The difference between ERA and FIP isn't BABIP, it's clustering hits together. And in the long run, that is luck. In fact, Buchholz's early season FIP, back when his ERA was awful, has been completely predictive of his ERA since. I was hoping that Buchholz and Porcello would comprise a proper 1-2. Now it's looking like the second top-of-rotation guy is going to have to be ERod or an acquisition. Porcello should be a decent #3 and there are plenty of solid options to fill out the last two spots. It should be a good rotation, maybe better depending on the development of the kids. Here I agree with you. We have two quality guys in Koji and Taz, a pleasant surprise in Layne, and then a bunch of guys who should be pitching low leverage (Ogando) or not at all (Breslow). But bullpens are very fungible from year to year. Between some inhouse solutions (including Kelly, I bet) and smart shopping, they can build a much better one. Sandoval was expected to be get a big Fenway boost and quite possible a road boost from traveling better. Given how often free agents disappoint in their first year, it's way too soon to write him off for the rest of his contract. He may not earn his salary, but he has a solid chance of being a good, productive 2.0 - 3.0 WAR player. It seems very unlikely that he'll be below replacement level going forward. Ortiz will be very good in a strict platoon role for another year and a half. Hanley should be a very good DH. Let's remember that we have two 22-year old kids playing at a 4.0 WAR level who should, as you note, get even better, and a guy in AAA in JBJ playing at that level when you combine his defense with his MLE, who should get his chance next year if they move Hanley to 1B (90 games) / DH (60). The position player roster for next year, it seems to me, needs one significant addition -- a RH hitting 1B who can platoon with Ortiz (via Hanley moving from 1B to DH) and is good enough to pinch-hit for him against LOOGYs. (Yeah, that guys is supposed to be Craig. We'll see.) I'm not worrying whether the lefty bat bench will be a revitalized Nava, a broken-out Cechhini or Peguero, a re-signed De Aza, or an acquisition. After 2012, people thought there was no way we could contend in 2013, when the numbers showed it would be pretty easy to contend. I see this year and next as very similar.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 16, 2015 4:17:53 GMT -5
I generally disagree with the idea that the Red Sox cannot compete next year. True-talent-wise, I still think the current roster is something like an 85-win team (Fangraphs projects them to play .531 (86 win pace) going forward), BP projects them to play .524 (85 win pace) going forward). Considering the hole they've dug for themselves, that's not going to be enough to compete for the playoffs this year. But this absolutely could be a playoff team next year. Sandoval is not this bad. Hanley will improve defensively. Betts, Swihart and Castillo will improve, as Bogaerts has this year. The rotation will pitch closer to their peripherals going forward, and are a solidly middle-of-the-pack group. The bullpen is kind of meh, but there are intriguing guys on the horizon (Eduardo Escobar, Barnes, Light) and that's always the easiest to rebuild. As such, while I'm comfortable trading guys who are either pending free agents (Napoli, Victorino, De Aza) or guys who are significant age-related-decline risks (Uehara, Hanigan), I'm hesitant to trade guys like Tazawa and Buchholz unless I get a knock-my-socks-off-type offer. [ But you basically said the same thing last year. You can't make this same argument year after year.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 16, 2015 4:26:50 GMT -5
Tazawa and Ogando-
Keep in mind that the Red Sox have a conga line of young relievers at this point. Between Barnes, Light, Arro, Hembree, Spruill, and Ross the Red Sox are sitting on so many relievers that they can afford to trade one or two if it will get them a good player.
Also keep in mind that the Sox are going to have to have at least 6 40 man additions between now and the Rule Five cutoff date.
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2015 6:38:18 GMT -5
I generally disagree with the idea that the Red Sox cannot compete next year. True-talent-wise, I still think the current roster is something like an 85-win team (Fangraphs projects them to play .531 (86 win pace) going forward), BP projects them to play .524 (85 win pace) going forward). Considering the hole they've dug for themselves, that's not going to be enough to compete for the playoffs this year. But this absolutely could be a playoff team next year. Sandoval is not this bad. Hanley will improve defensively. Betts, Swihart and Castillo will improve, as Bogaerts has this year. The rotation will pitch closer to their peripherals going forward, and are a solidly middle-of-the-pack group. The bullpen is kind of meh, but there are intriguing guys on the horizon (Eduardo Escobar, Barnes, Light) and that's always the easiest to rebuild. As such, while I'm comfortable trading guys who are either pending free agents (Napoli, Victorino, De Aza) or guys who are significant age-related-decline risks (Uehara, Hanigan), I'm hesitant to trade guys like Tazawa and Buchholz unless I get a knock-my-socks-off-type offer. [ But you basically said the same thing last year. You can't make this same argument year after year. Why not? An n of 1 is certainly not proof that I'm wrong. Sometimes a coin comes up tails twice in a row.
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