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6/23-6/25 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2015 12:24:10 GMT -5
This is entirely unnecessary-- make your point without calling other posters names. Tone it down. You've been warned about this before. Thanks. My point is, if you have no respect for math then you are living in the wrong century.
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2015 12:30:12 GMT -5
This is entirely unnecessary-- make your point without calling other posters names. Tone it down. You've been warned about this before. Thanks. My point is, if you have no respect for math then you are living in the wrong century. You can make that point (which I certainly agree with) without being unnecessarily abrasive and calling another poster an idiot. I refer you to the Forum Ground Rules, especially the rules regarding civility.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 24, 2015 12:33:58 GMT -5
This is entirely unnecessary-- make your point without calling other posters names. Tone it down. You've been warned about this before. Thanks. Please don't ban him. I didn't think Godot should have been banned. I know he doesn't post in a respectful manner at times. But he knows the game and ads to the discussion.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2015 12:34:40 GMT -5
Joe Kelly can be pretty awesome. In his first five starts this year he was rocking a 3.24 SIERA. Unfortunately, he also had quite a bit of bad luck. John Farrell twice incorrectly hooked him mid-inning. I can't help but wonder how much John Farrell and the Boston media beating up on him made him think he needed to make adjustments that he did not need to make, resulting in a 4.92 SIERA in the 9 games since. Anyway, I may have mentioned this before, but John Farrell needs to be fired. I'm no fan of John Farrell, but that's just silly. Joe Kelly has a career 4.20 xFIP as a starter. Joe Kelly has a 4.12 2015 xFIP. Joe Kelly projects for a 4.31 ERA. Joe Kelly is not a good starter - 5 arbitrary starts don't change that. He has terrible command and that doesn't seem to be changing. Can't blame John Farrell for that one. Of course you can't just pick out a stretch of 5 starts and make that the entire basis of your projection going forward - but I do think it can tell you about a pitcher's potential upside. For instance, RDLR in his first 5 MLB starts 2014: 3.07 SIERA. Rest of the season: 4.69 SIERA. And hey, guess what... his 2015 SIERA is 3.44. Can I completely blame John Farrell? Not with any certainty, of course not. But you can bet your *** that he wasn't telling Joe Kelly "you're doing great, don't worry about the bad results, keep pitching the way you've been pitching." If he were, why would he hook him mid-inning like that and why would he tell the media otherwise? No, it's fairly clear what message Kelly was getting - "you're doing poorly and something's got to change". And change something he did, hoo boy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2015 13:05:21 GMT -5
I'm no fan of John Farrell, but that's just silly. Joe Kelly has a career 4.20 xFIP as a starter. Joe Kelly has a 4.12 2015 xFIP. Joe Kelly projects for a 4.31 ERA. Joe Kelly is not a good starter - 5 arbitrary starts don't change that. He has terrible command and that doesn't seem to be changing. Can't blame John Farrell for that one. Of course you can't just pick out a stretch of 5 starts and make that the entire basis of your projection going forward - but I do think it can tell you about a pitcher's potential upside. For instance, RDLR in his first 5 MLB starts 2014: 3.07 SIERA. Rest of the season: 4.69 SIERA. And hey, guess what... his 2015 SIERA is 3.44. Can I completely blame John Farrell? Not with any certainty, of course not. But you can bet your *** that he wasn't telling Joe Kelly "you're doing great, don't worry about the bad results, keep pitching the way you've been pitching." If he were, why would he hook him mid-inning like that and why would he tell the media otherwise? No, it's fairly clear what message Kelly was getting - "you're doing poorly and something's got to change". And change something he did, hoo boy. I respect the attempts (the math which if I had to duplicate would take me quite awhile) to try to evaluate a pitcher's performance. It's obvious that the FIPs and SIERAs like the Red Sox pitching staff better than most do. Those numbers say the Sox are doing alright, while the real life numbers show that the staff has been what can charitably be described as mediocre at best and that's putting it kindly. Joe Kelly is a guy who has spotty command and despite how hard he can throw, he doesn't miss a lot of bats. His swing and miss rate is pretty low. From the eye test, I don't think he's pitching as well as FIP or SIERA would indicate. To me those are statistical evaluation guidelines, but hardly absolute statistics. I think his pitching has been pretty terrible and he's getting yanked because he is giving up the big innings. I can't blame Farrell for yanking guys out of the game when their real life pitching line stinks badly, even if FIP or SIERA or whatever disagree. It's not like Kelly has been getting blooped to death. Farrell has to make decisions in the real world (and it's certainly up for debate whether he does that correctly) and not a virtual one. The team gets real wins and real losses, not virtual ones, whether they underperform or overperform. I get that mathematical analysis is crucial in baseball, but as Theo Epstein, would say, you have to view the game through two lenses. The eyeball test matters too. You can't rely 100% on either one exclusively, because neither one is absolutely correct.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2015 13:23:32 GMT -5
Of course you can't just pick out a stretch of 5 starts and make that the entire basis of your projection going forward - but I do think it can tell you about a pitcher's potential upside. For instance, RDLR in his first 5 MLB starts 2014: 3.07 SIERA. Rest of the season: 4.69 SIERA. And hey, guess what... his 2015 SIERA is 3.44. Can I completely blame John Farrell? Not with any certainty, of course not. But you can bet your *** that he wasn't telling Joe Kelly "you're doing great, don't worry about the bad results, keep pitching the way you've been pitching." If he were, why would he hook him mid-inning like that and why would he tell the media otherwise? No, it's fairly clear what message Kelly was getting - "you're doing poorly and something's got to change". And change something he did, hoo boy. I respect the attempts (the math which if I had to duplicate would take me quite awhile) to try to evaluate a pitcher's performance. It's obvious that the FIPs and SIERAs like the Red Sox pitching staff better than most do. Those numbers say the Sox are doing alright, while the real life numbers show that the staff has been what can charitably be described as mediocre at best and that's putting it kindly. Joe Kelly is a guy who has spotty command and despite how hard he can throw, he doesn't miss a lot of bats. His swing and miss rate is pretty low. From the eye test, I don't think he's pitching as well as FIP or SIERA would indicate. To me those are statistical evaluation guidelines, but hardly absolute statistics. I think his pitching has been pretty terrible and he's getting yanked because he is giving up the big innings. I can't blame Farrell for yanking guys out of the game when their real life pitching line stinks badly, even if FIP or SIERA or whatever disagree. It's not like Kelly has been getting blooped to death. Farrell has to make decisions in the real world (and it's certainly up for debate whether he does that correctly) and not a virtual one. The team gets real wins and real losses, not virtual ones, whether they underperform or overperform. I get that mathematical analysis is crucial in baseball, but as Theo Epstein, would say, you have to view the game through two lenses. The eyeball test matters too. You can't rely 100% on either one exclusively, because neither one is absolutely correct. The eyeball test for Joe Kelly i his first five starts was that he was pitching pretty well and having the really crappy weak hits clustered together kill him. And yeah, it would be great if pitchers could strike everyone out to avoid that, but a lot of other pitchers who don't strike everyone out have much better results giving up the same batted balls.
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Post by rafael on Jun 24, 2015 13:30:03 GMT -5
Joe Kelly has not been as bad as most people in this board think he has been. He has been so far a serviceable #5 starter, carrying a 4.18 FIP, which among the 133 pitchers with more than 50 IP is 82nd, 4.12 xFIP (85th) and 4.29 SIERA (96th). That's well above replacement level, albeit being also below-average.
I'd give Brian Johnson a start or two in his place, because I think Johnson will have at least similar results, while bolstering our atrocious bullpen with the addition of Kelly.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2015 13:30:59 GMT -5
I respect the attempts (the math which if I had to duplicate would take me quite awhile) to try to evaluate a pitcher's performance. It's obvious that the FIPs and SIERAs like the Red Sox pitching staff better than most do. Those numbers say the Sox are doing alright, while the real life numbers show that the staff has been what can charitably be described as mediocre at best and that's putting it kindly. Joe Kelly is a guy who has spotty command and despite how hard he can throw, he doesn't miss a lot of bats. His swing and miss rate is pretty low. From the eye test, I don't think he's pitching as well as FIP or SIERA would indicate. To me those are statistical evaluation guidelines, but hardly absolute statistics. I think his pitching has been pretty terrible and he's getting yanked because he is giving up the big innings. I can't blame Farrell for yanking guys out of the game when their real life pitching line stinks badly, even if FIP or SIERA or whatever disagree. It's not like Kelly has been getting blooped to death. Farrell has to make decisions in the real world (and it's certainly up for debate whether he does that correctly) and not a virtual one. The team gets real wins and real losses, not virtual ones, whether they underperform or overperform. I get that mathematical analysis is crucial in baseball, but as Theo Epstein, would say, you have to view the game through two lenses. The eyeball test matters too. You can't rely 100% on either one exclusively, because neither one is absolutely correct. The eyeball test for Joe Kelly i his first five starts was that he was pitching pretty well and having the really crappy weak hits clustered together kill him. And yeah, it would be great if pitchers could strike everyone out to avoid that, but a lot of other pitchers who don't strike everyone out have much better results giving up the same batted balls. His first five times out he was fine. That first time out he was sensational. Thought we were seeing a new Joe Kelly. My point regarding Farrell and Kelly, which I didn't state very well, was that I don't have the issue with the quicker hooks for Kelly. The results are the results at this point. I think a bigger point where you can ding Farrell is that perhaps Kelly's approach is all over the map these days. He came out of the chute this season throwing 98 but his command suffered. Now I think Willis has him taking a little off so he can command better, but I don't think that does wonders for his abilities to get swings and misses, not that he was great with that even throwing 98. I don't know if that can be laid at Farrell's feet or perhaps more at Nieves. I would think Kelly would be one confused pitcher by now.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 24, 2015 13:35:46 GMT -5
I understand how luck is hurting Kelly, but when you have a 5.67 ERA by the end of June then it really begins to fall on deaf ears. I'd keep him in the MLB rotation if the Red Sox are truly beginning to feel like they're out of it. Considering they sent Castillo down, I'm betting they don't. Kelly needs to be sent down to work on mechanics and his command/control and have him focus on hitting spots with certain pitches. I'd like to see Stephen Wright back up here or Brian Johnson.
Yes, I know ERA is not the sexiest statistic in the world on here, but at some point real world numbers do matter.
Currently, in ALL of major league baseball, Rick Porcello has the 7th worst ERA and Joe Kelly has the 5th worst among qualified starters.
Just for fun, Wade Miley is the 28th worst starter.
This is out of 103 qualified starting pitchers.
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Post by marrcus on Jun 24, 2015 13:57:17 GMT -5
The next 17 games up to the break....could be really ugly (6-11?). Henry was smart to end Farrell speculation early or there would be endless talk about a new skipper. It wouldn't help.
As for Cherington I think he needs to be practically flawless in his sell-mode to survive this. I'd be open to almost anything. I hope he is too.
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Post by soxloom2016 on Jun 24, 2015 14:27:03 GMT -5
Saw this on Speier's twitter earlier... Most balls hit 90 mph or harder this year ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIRk1IPWcAANx31.png) Ppl who dont follow the Sox gonna be like "wasnt this kid weighing in at 155 LBS last year"
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2015 14:49:23 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,016
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Post by nomar on Jun 24, 2015 15:20:59 GMT -5
Saw this on Speier's twitter earlier... Most balls hit 90 mph or harder this year ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIRk1IPWcAANx31.png) Ppl who dont follow the Sox gonna be like "wasnt this kid weighing in at 155 LBS last year" I hate seeing Machado succeed
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Post by soxloom2016 on Jun 24, 2015 15:26:04 GMT -5
Ya i dont like Thugchado at all.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 24, 2015 16:04:09 GMT -5
It was the result of him being Joe Kelly. Joe Kelly can be pretty awesome. In his first five starts this year he was rocking a 3.24 SIERA. Unfortunately, he also had quite a bit of bad luck. John Farrell twice incorrectly hooked him mid-inning. I can't help but wonder how much John Farrell and the Boston media beating up on him made him think he needed to make adjustments that he did not need to make, resulting in a 4.92 SIERA in the 9 games since. Anyway, I may have mentioned this before, but John Farrell needs to be fired. I was all for that this winter when Maddon was available but if they canned him right now I have a hard time picking anyone available I could definitively say would be better. Although if they picked Butterfield as an interim he'd be instinctively sending guys from the batters circle, which would be entertaining.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jun 24, 2015 17:20:32 GMT -5
A stat guy making mental excuses for a pitcher who has had the same problem his whole career(control/command). Irony meet math. Yup, I prefer to back up my arguments with stats rather than personal insults. Am I in the wrong place then? For someone who totes around this fancy stats, you would think you might have some background or knowledge of statistics but it appears that is clearly not true. First and foremost, if knew anything about the statistical principles that makeup seira you wuld know that it is purely a BACKWARD LOOKING calculation which only inputs the current season data, thus any statistician worth his sold will tell you in order for this stat to have any predictive value going into the future you must analyze the underlying numbers to determine whether it constitutes a statistical anomaly or if past performance in such statistical categories could be extrapolated out to conclude that this change is indicative of progress in a players maturation. To this end, with Seira strikeouts carry an enormous weight and thus if a player has a monumental jump in k% his seira at a given time will be much better than in years past, with this in mind take a look at kellys k/9 in his first 5 it ranked #7 in all of baseball at 10.6 now looking back at his career which spans 402 mlb innings and his career k/9 coming into this season was 6.14 and his highest single season was 6.31; thus 10.6 would constitute an increase of 72.3% over his career which again spans a large sample of 404 innings, so from a statistical standpoint that is a huge aberration which has since regressed to his career average and thus dropped significantly as the season progressed....This same principle, of a statistical abberation during this subset of time, can be used to explain his rise in walks per 9 and whip since those first five starts which all regressed back to the mean, oh and his seira for the season is doing the same regression towards his career averages which as the following data clearly shows is approximately 4.47...So his struggles are either; 1. Your argument that his 5 game siera points to a good major league pitcher whose only being held back by his manager, but then I have to ask the obvious, since he wasnt part of our organization for his first 2.5 mlb years yet still put up similar substandard numbers who held him back in St Louis?...or 2. STATISTICAL REGRESSION TO A CAREER MEAN! Seira Rank Name Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA- FIP- xFIP- ERA FIP E-F xFIP SIERA 2015 18 Joe Kelly Red Sox 10.65 3.04 3.5 1.14 28.90% 8.30% 20.60% 0.205 1.1 0.263 61.40% 122 91 81 4.94 3.53 1.41 3.19 3.12014 125 of 149 Joe Kelly - - - 6.17 3.92 1.57 0.75 15.90% 10.10% 5.80% 0.24 1.35 0.274 70.80% 110 118 111 4.2 4.37 -0.16 4.19 4.292013 140 of 150 Joe Kelly Cardinals 4.76 3.52 1.35 0.52 12.40% 9.20% 3.20% 0.245 1.33 0.271 82.00% 62 107 118 2.28 3.98 -1.7 4.43 4.692012 116 0f 171 Joe Kelly Cardinals 5.81 3.15 1.84 0.89 15.10% 8.20% 6.90% 0.272 1.41 0.304 71.80% 97 109 104 3.74 4.2 -0.46 4.08 4.34
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2015 17:26:17 GMT -5
SIERA is the most predictive of all of the advanced pitching stats.
Are you saying that pitchers cannot all of a sudden figure something out and change their career mean? What is your analysis of Corey Kluber?
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2015 17:28:34 GMT -5
LOL, I'm going to have to think about whether bmichols is worth a serious reply, but for now I have to say that telling me I have no knowledge of these statistics and then coming at me with worthless junk like K/9 and WHIP is quite funny.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jun 24, 2015 17:50:39 GMT -5
LOL, I'm going to have to think about whether bmichols is worth a serious reply, but for now I have to say that telling me I have no knowledge of these statistics and then coming at me with worthless junk like K/9 and WHIP is quite funny. Really are you serious with this, here is the verabtim definition of Seira per the BP website "Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck. SIERA accounts for how run prevention improves as ground ball rate increases and declines as more whiffs are accrued, while grounders are of more materiality for those who allow a surplus of runners. The formula for SIERA is: SIERA = 6.145 - 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) - 1.858*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/- 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) - 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)" Again just to make sure you read this, "Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate," Look at the bleepin formula for god sake, ALL inputs are made up of either Strikeouts per plate appearance, walks per plate appearance and batted ball data from each plate appearance thus k/9 which is a derivative of strikeouts per PA and Whip which incorporates walks and hits per plate appearance are indicative of the overall Siera calculation...do you even have anything of value to add to this conversation or is this just what you do spout off stats too look smart and hope no one calls you out?!
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2015 18:10:17 GMT -5
k/9 which is a derivative of strikeouts per PA OK, I'm stupid, please explain this derivation to me. I mean, it's not strictly speaking incorrect to say that Hits/PA is somehow related to SIERA but it is an extremely tenuous relationship.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2015 18:12:16 GMT -5
Your argument that his 5 game siera points to a good major league pitcher whose only being held back by his manager, This is a strawman argument, I actually said something rather different.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 24, 2015 18:27:15 GMT -5
Not exactly a one two three but it's a scoreless frame. Go, Buch.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2015 18:36:14 GMT -5
Nice try by de Aza, would be great to demoralize the opposition with a 9-3 DP.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 24, 2015 18:42:01 GMT -5
Stop batting David Ortiz 4th....
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 24, 2015 18:44:33 GMT -5
Bud Norris and his 7+ ERA. I know that's a bad stat, but 7+ ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) And it's Bud Norris (vs. Buch). If they lose tonight it's the last nail in this year's coffin.
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