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Should the Red Sox sign Josh Hamilton?
steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 25, 2012 14:31:07 GMT -5
Is there a bigger talent available in free agency? Is there one that makes you more nervous? Do we really need that middle-of-the-order bat badly enough? There have been sooooooo many articles written about this guy. You can't pick up a paper or blog about baseball where his name isn't whispered. The articles go one way or the other. There does not seem to be any middle ground. Your pro or con! I've written here about the strength of signing him on a 3-year contract, and, as many of you stated, that isn't going to make it happen. Someone will go longer. Should that be us? Are we insane (or not)? _____________________________________________ Kirk Minihane at WEEI had this interesting piece on why we should stay away........far away: www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/kirk-minihane/2012/11/21/red-sox-should-stay-away-josh-hamilton______________________________________________ While good old Nick Carfado has this to say today in the Globe: bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/11/25/red-sox-should-after-josh-hamilton-joe-mauer/iVElvj69tKteMQwMvTJiWO/story.html_______________________________________________ You can't seem to even go to church without the Rev putting in his two-cent's worth. He is a superior talent. We do need another middle-of-the-order bat........and here is the potential free agents for 2014: _______________________________________________ www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html_______________________________________________ Anyone you see on that list that gives you hope? Is it one of those.......your dammed if you do and your dammed if you don't? Your thoughts???
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Post by mainesox on Nov 25, 2012 15:24:36 GMT -5
My only real question is is Hamilton really enough better than Swisher to warrant the extra risk and money? He hits for more power, but he's not a particularly high OBP guy (despite a considerably higher AVG he generally has a lower OBP than Swisher) and other than his monster 2010 he's always had about the same wRC+ as Swisher.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 25, 2012 15:44:48 GMT -5
Is there a bigger talent available in free agency? Is there one that makes you more nervous? Do we really need that middle-of-the-order bat badly enough? Your thoughts??? The answers to your questions are: No No Heck Yes But to answer should the Sox sign Hamilton the answer is a very big IT DEPENDS..... If Hamilton winds up with six years or more, that's a heck no. If it's five years, it's a maybe. If it's three or four years, it's a go-for-it. He's an elite talent provided he's not in the process of giving up tobacco or going thru the other problems that have hampered his career and life. He obviously needs to have his support system intact and the Sox need plenty of protection in the contract. My guess is that Dan Duquette gives him six years and has him aiming at the warehouse in Camden Yards. If that's the case, good luck to them. It's not a move the Sox should make. If it's four years or less, there's no reason the Sox shouldn't flex their financial muscles and get involved - if the Sox can build a young core lineup around him, they can afford a big corner OF salary in Hamilton. It appears the Sox are poised to sign Napoli, a RH bat, and they need another lefty, besides Big Papi, for the middle of the order, and Hamilton would fit it quite nicely, replacing A-Gon's producion, but without giving up a prospect like Rizzo and Kelly. If it's five years, I think it's one too many, but the Sox will have a tough decision to make - I'm more comfortable with a clause of 140 games in Season 4 or 560 games thru the four years to make me comfortable giving him a 5th year option, but I honestly don't think four years will land him. Somebody will give him more. My guess is Baltimore. And my related guess is that the Sox wind up with Napoli at 1b and turn to Nick Swisher in RF.
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Post by remember04 on Nov 25, 2012 16:04:43 GMT -5
Yeah, I pretty much think the response is going to be a "it depends". Most if not all of us would like him on a three year deal. The only ones who wouldn't are the big OBP guys. The other stats aside Hamilton is better hitter than Swisher ever has been or ever will be. Against a big name pitcher like a King Felix or a David Price who do have more confidence in at the plate? That's a Hamilton.
On a three year deal I'd take him and maybe on a four year deal but somebody mentioned the Orioles and Duquette did sign Manny for us so in my honest opinion Baltimore does seem like a good fit.
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Post by ray88h66 on Nov 25, 2012 16:24:36 GMT -5
My Answers to Steve, No No Yes
Should we sign Hamilton ? No
I think anyone would take him on a 3 year deal but he will get more than that so that's the end of my interest,
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 25, 2012 18:04:20 GMT -5
My answers to Steve,
No Yes Yes
Should we sign him... yes, for whatever it takes
Will Boston sign him... I doubt it
I predict he signs with Toronto
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 25, 2012 20:08:55 GMT -5
You know guys (and gals), what worries me........is when I look at what is available in free agency for 2014. Probably the only quality bat is the one and only Jacoby Ellsbury, and he is, probably, not a middle-of-the-order type guy.
Boy did Manny and Papi spoil me! I'm sure signing Napoli will help, especially in Fenway, but I'm starting to think I like the idea of Hamilton more and more. For 6 or 7 years? Definitely not, but I'm softening on more than 3 years as I look at that sorry group in 2014.
Believe me, I get it. I get it.....that we need to be much smarter than we were a couple years ago, but darn he would look good as a book-end with Napoli and Ortiz. Ortiz is 37 years old. He himself won't last forever. Even if Josh slows some in the outfield, he could be an excellent DH in say year 4 or 5.
We mention all the time on this great site that there are two skill sets that are really difficult to find: 1) an ace for the rotation, and 2) legit power
No one has more legit power than Josh Hamilton!
I really believe we will be much stronger around 2014, but the power in our line-up will possibly be decreasing with Ortiz probably retired in 2015. We've been spoiled. I look at the kids coming up and I see few guys who have the potential to even hit 25+ a year. Yes I'd like to think, like you, that Xander will pop 30 a year for 10 consecutive seasons (or more), but who knows. Brentz may someday contribute some above average power. I see Middlebrooks as a guy who will hit close to 25 per year. After that?
We have had many varied opinions on this site about the importance of coming up with a TRUE ace. There are so few. But there are so few power hitters who can do what a Josh Hamilton can do. We don't have to lose our valued prospects to add him to our line-up. We do have to trust and take a chance by giving him boat-loads of money.
I'm OK with the boat-loads of money (it's Henry's money anyway). I'm more than OK with holding on to five guys (Xander, De La Rosa, Webster, Bradley, and Barnes) and flipping the coin with Josh Hamilton for a 4 year, and if need be a 5 year contract.
This player is special. We have an opportunity. We don't have many opportunities like this. I hope the Sox try real hard to solve one of our problems for next year and the future.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 25, 2012 20:18:40 GMT -5
The best bats available next year are Wright and Cano. The New York City teams will likely pay to keep their stars.
Its really either Hamilton or acquire a bat via trade.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 25, 2012 20:29:12 GMT -5
Steve, it's absolutely true that Hamilton is a special player, with a combination of skills that very few players alive possess. It's also important to keep things in perspective - the San Francisco Giants just won the World Series. Their leading home run hitter, Buster Posey. had only 24 on the season. Number 2? Pablo Sandoval had only 12. So it's not like adding power is the necessary blueprint for building a championship caliber team. And while power is a rare skill, it's also one of the most expensive ones. Spending a ton of money to add power while leaving other positions in the lineup OBP sinkholes is a mistake.
Hamilton is a great player, and there is NO question that he makes the Red Sox better. They have holes at the outfield corner spots, and Hamilton is one of the better ones in the game. Obvious upgrade, this isn't what I'm debating. So the question is whether signing him would come at such an expense that it would make the Red Sox unable to perform the other necessary improvements. This is, after all, what happened the last offseason, and why they made the major trade in August. They were better with Beckett/Gonzalez/Crawford than they were without them, of course - that showed in the standings. The problem was that with those players, they had no financial room to make those necessary improvements to rebuild the entire team. With them off of the books, they have that opportunity.
So yes, Hamilton is a special player who improves the Red Sox. So was Adrian Gonzalez, and like Gonzalez, Hamilton doesn't, alone, make them a championship contender. So they really can only consider him up to a price where they have enough wiggle room to add those other pieces.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 25, 2012 21:59:23 GMT -5
Thanks James. I do appreciate everything you said. I guess you might want to put me in the "I don't want to trade" category, because I'm afraid of us moving one of the 5 guys I mentioned. And, I'm afraid, one or two of those guys may have to be part of any package for picking up players that will make us better.
I do not want us to be tied up once again, as before, with huge long-term contracts.....but I'm just making the point that there is not much on the horizon using free agency.
I do understand the dilemma we are facing. I'm not really concerned with us competing for the play-offs in 2013, but I am concerned when most of those 5 kids are ready to be of help, we don't have the supporting cast to push up to the top.
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Post by dcri on Nov 26, 2012 12:38:17 GMT -5
Remember what it was like when Manny and Ortiz were hitting back-to-back? That's what it could be like with Hamilton for the next couple of years. It's worth the risk if the contract is not too long.
I think six and seven year contracts are crazy. How many players still are worth what they are being paid at the end? It is better to pay more for a shorter period of time.
The Sox have plenty of financial flexibility. Signing Hamilton to a three or four year deal at $20-25 million would not prevent them from signing a couple of good pitchers and Swisher and/or Napoli.
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Post by buffs4444 on Nov 26, 2012 14:06:30 GMT -5
If they're not going to sign Greinke to shore up the rotation, no they should not sign Hamilton. No sense going half in on a competitive team.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2012 15:15:41 GMT -5
Look, Hamilton won't sign for three years, even for a $25m AAV. You'd have a half-dozen teams who'd want him at that price (including the Rangers, to whom he's given the ability to match any other offer). Sooner or later, some team will blink and give him five years, and a 36-year-old Hamilton is a risky proposition even if he didn't have past drug and alcohol abuse problems. Hamilton obvious has crazy power, but he also just posted a career-high 25.5% strikeout rate and by far the lowest contact rate of his career (64.7%, as opposed to no previous season lower than 72%). Note that that contact rate was the lowest of any qualified hitter in 2012 by two percentage points, and the other luminaries on that laggard list include guys like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Dunn. That is the kind of hitter you might get going forward-- someone with ridiculous power but who doesn't make enough contact to make up for it. Hamilton has the additional problem of mediocre plate discipline-- he also swung at the most pitches outside of the zone of any player in 2012 (45.4%), just ahead of Delmon Young and Jeff Francoeur. His O-Swing% has increased six years in a row-- rather than improving his plate discipline as he has aged, he's swung at more and more bad pitches. In a related development, pitchers have thrown him fewer and fewer pitches in the zone-- his Zone% has declined six years in a row as well, and he led the league with just 34% balls in the zone in 2012. Remember, after a white-hot start in 2012, he slumped severely in June and July once pitchers stopped throwing him strikes and he couldn't adjust. He may or may not have made some changes in August, but it didn't seem to stick and he struggled again in September, posting his highest monthly strikeout rate of the season. Now, one might argue that despite these developments, Hamilton has continued to have great offensive seasons, even hitting for a decent average (.285 in 2012) without having an elevated BABIP (his BABIP was .320, but his xBABIP was .323), and so he's clearly managed to succeed despite the above problems. And you would be right to date, as his monstrous power (HR/FB of 25.6% in 2012, second in the league behind Adam Dunn) means he has hit enough home runs to offset poor contact and plate discipline. But note that he would move from a ballpark which favors left-handed power (LHB HR factor of 117 in Texas) to one which very much depresses it (LHB HR factor of 80 in Fenway). That alone gives me cause for concern, especially since Hamilton is a dead pull power hitter who has hit far more home runs at home than at the road (94/67 career split). But more importantly, I think his offensive profile means he's an extremely high risk to just collapse offensively a la Andruw Jones with the Dodgers. Once his bat speed begins to slow as he gets into his mid-30s, Hamilton will struggle to be even a league-average player given his mediocre contact and plate discipline profile and his average-at-best corner outfield defense. Jones at least had great walk rates and elite CF defense to fall back on, but even that didn't save him from completely falling off the map once he turned 31. Hamilton is at risk for a similar decline, and that's without mentioned the addiction concerns, which should be weighed just as much, if not more than Greinke's anxiety issues. Someone is going to give him $100m+ in free agency, and they're probably going to regret it. Hopefully it isn't the Red Sox.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 26, 2012 17:01:13 GMT -5
Hamilton is at risk for a similar decline, and that's without mentioned the addiction concerns, which should be weighed just as much, if not more than Greinke's anxiety issues.Well, Greinke's recovery didn't have it's own marketing department.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2012 18:23:14 GMT -5
If they're not going to sign Greinke to shore up the rotation, no they should not sign Hamilton. No sense going half in on a competitive team. From what I've read it sounds like Greinke has a shot at getting a six or seven year deal and topping $150 million. If the Sox were to get Hamilton as well, they'd be putting almost the same amount of money back on the payroll. With Hamilton, you know his questions - and from what I've read, there was a comment from an agent saying that no team would give him more than 4 years guaranteed. As sensible as that is, it's hard for me to believe that some team won't top that by a good deal, but if that's the case, the risk is only 4 years of Hamilton (say $100 million). With Greinke, you're paying elite ace money to a guy who's not an elite ace type of pitcher - and doing so for many years. I know that Greinke's FIP always seems to be much better than his actual ERA, but I have to question if he's always THAT unlucky. If it's me, I don't spend the money on Greinke. I wait until Hernandez or Price or somebody of that rare ilk becomes available. That's who I'd give the big money to. I'd hate to see the payroll tied up when those guys become available. With Hamilton tied up for four years, it doesn't preclude them from going after Stanton when he's a free agent in 4 years.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 26, 2012 20:36:04 GMT -5
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Post by remember04 on Nov 26, 2012 20:43:59 GMT -5
I know we need pitching first and foremost but I'd make that trade too. Trade Ellsbury for the best pitching prospect you can and call it a day.
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Post by leo on Nov 26, 2012 22:22:38 GMT -5
Look, Hamilton won't sign for three years, even for a $25m AAV. You'd have a half-dozen teams who'd want him at that price (including the Rangers, to whom he's given the ability to match any other offer). Sooner or later, some team will blink and give him five years, and a 36-year-old Hamilton is a risky proposition even if he didn't have past drug and alcohol abuse problems. Hamilton obvious has crazy power, but he also just posted a career-high 25.5% strikeout rate and by far the lowest contact rate of his career (64.7%, as opposed to no previous season lower than 72%). Note that that contact rate was the lowest of any qualified hitter in 2012 by two percentage points, and the other luminaries on that laggard list include guys like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Dunn. That is the kind of hitter you might get going forward-- someone with ridiculous power but who doesn't make enough contact to make up for it. Hamilton has the additional problem of mediocre plate discipline-- he also swung at the most pitches outside of the zone of any player in 2012 (45.4%), just ahead of Delmon Young and Jeff Francoeur. His O-Swing% has increased six years in a row-- rather than improving his plate discipline as he has aged, he's swung at more and more bad pitches. In a related development, pitchers have thrown him fewer and fewer pitches in the zone-- his Zone% has declined six years in a row as well, and he led the league with just 34% balls in the zone in 2012. Remember, after a white-hot start in 2012, he slumped severely in June and July once pitchers stopped throwing him strikes and he couldn't adjust. He may or may not have made some changes in August, but it didn't seem to stick and he struggled again in September, posting his highest monthly strikeout rate of the season. Now, one might argue that despite these developments, Hamilton has continued to have great offensive seasons, even hitting for a decent average (.285 in 2012) without having an elevated BABIP (his BABIP was .320, but his xBABIP was .323), and so he's clearly managed to succeed despite the above problems. And you would be right to date, as his monstrous power (HR/FB of 25.6% in 2012, second in the league behind Adam Dunn) means he has hit enough home runs to offset poor contact and plate discipline. But note that he would move from a ballpark which favors left-handed power (LHB HR factor of 117 in Texas) to one which very much depresses it (LHB HR factor of 80 in Fenway). That alone gives me cause for concern, especially since Hamilton is a dead pull power hitter who has hit far more home runs at home than at the road (94/67 career split). But more importantly, I think his offensive profile means he's an extremely high risk to just collapse offensively a la Andruw Jones with the Dodgers. Once his bat speed begins to slow as he gets into his mid-30s, Hamilton will struggle to be even a league-average player given his mediocre contact and plate discipline profile and his average-at-best corner outfield defense. Jones at least had great walk rates and elite CF defense to fall back on, but even that didn't save him from completely falling off the map once he turned 31. Hamilton is at risk for a similar decline, and that's without mentioned the addiction concerns, which should be weighed just as much, if not more than Greinke's anxiety issues. Someone is going to give him $100m+ in free agency, and they're probably going to regret it. Hopefully it isn't the Red Sox. I get your point, but Hamilton having the worst contact rate in the MLB, basically getting thrown everything out of the zone (only 34% of pitches thrown to him are strikes, by FAR the lowest in the Majors), and still posting the numbers he did suggests that he is maybe the biggest talent the Majors have ever seen. Also, let's not forget that he quit tobacco this year. Again, that kind of production with such a horrible approach just screams potential. 4yr/100m is a calculated risk, it's nothing that the Red Sox cannot afford to go wrong, but it this goes right, he can provide incredibly valuable to this team and might just turn out to be a big bargain, especially because we don't have a middle of the order bat, and unfortunately, those don't grow on trees.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 26, 2012 22:37:16 GMT -5
I get your point, but Hamilton having the worst contact rate in the MLB, basically getting thrown everything out of the zone (only 34% of pitches thrown to him are strikes, by FAR the lowest in the Majors), and still posting the numbers he did suggests that he is maybe the biggest talent the Majors have ever seen. Also, let's not forget that he quit tobacco this year. Again, that kind of production with such a horrible approach just screams potential. He enters next season as a 32 year old with over 3000 major league PAs. The fact that pitchers are exploiting his poor plate discipline at this point should not be seen as a positive.
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Post by leo on Nov 27, 2012 8:25:42 GMT -5
He enters next season as a 32 year old with over 3000 major league PAs. The fact that pitchers are exploiting his poor plate discipline at this point should not be seen as a positive. Point is, if him being exploited still means he is mashing both LH and RH pitching (look at his Aug/Sep numbers), and posts 43HR, 128RBI and the 10th best wOBA in the league, fine with me. And even more so, all this means is IF he makes proper adjustments to his approach, he will be the best player on planet MLB, no doubt. At least we can say that he has proven that albeit all the issues and bad approach, he is a very productive player in the Majors (from '10 to '12, he has the sixth best wOBA in the league). If he makes proper adjustments, and utilizes the great support net Boston can offer (from a medical standpoint), we might just get a few more 2010 seasons out of him.
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Post by jmei on Nov 27, 2012 9:13:24 GMT -5
My point is he has been successful pretty much only because he has the best bat speed in the major leagues, non-Bryce Harper edition. The problem is that he is entering his mid-30s and that bat speed can slow down either because of injury or age, and once it does, he brings nothing else to the table. If he hasn't made any adjustments by age 32 (and indeed has gotten worse at plate discipline), I see no reason why we can expect him to do going forward.
That makes him a very high-risk player, and if you're paying him $25m a year, you're basically paying him as if he was going to maintain his 2010-12 performance through age 35 when there's a good chance he'll severely under-perform it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2012 9:54:41 GMT -5
My point is he has been successful pretty much only because he has the best bat speed in the major leagues, non-Bryce Harper edition. The problem is that he is entering his mid-30s and that bat speed can slow down either because of injury or age, and once it does, he brings nothing else to the table. If he hasn't made any adjustments by age 32 (and indeed has gotten worse at plate discipline), I see no reason why we can expect him to do going forward. Again, he's in his 30s and he's seen a ton of MLB pitching, and his approach if anything has gotten worse. Expecting that trend to reverse is the definition of wishful thinking. If anything the more likely outcome is that his approach continues to get worse. Just for a point of comparison, from ages 26-31 (his entire post-addict career), Josh Hamilton has a 620/263 K/BB ratio. During the same 26-31 period, Vlad Guerrero had a 401/370 K/BB ratio.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 27, 2012 10:18:15 GMT -5
FTHW - you are correct, though I do feel compelled to point out: Vlad had 143 intentional walks in that period, while Hamilton had only 46, and Guerrero had about 600 more PAs during that time frame. So Vlad's unintentional walk rate was a touch lower than Hamilton's. But basically, Hamilton and Guerrero had the same approach, and Guerrero was much better at making contact.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2012 10:40:20 GMT -5
For the record I'm not sure if the Red Sox should sign Josh Hamilton or not. My knee jerk reaction is no for all of the reasons stated above including this point about his plate discipline. Yes he doesn't have the greatest plate discipline, but he has prodigious power.
Look you can't find a lot of RFs who can get you 4-5 wins above replacement and Hamilton can do that. One needs to look at the RF options for the Red Sox over the next several years and it's not pretty. I know we all love Bryce Brentz but there are serious questions if he's going to make enough contact to be a major league regular, never mind if he can actually defend in RF. Ellsbury even if he's resigned, doesn't have the arm strength for RF. As far as free agents go over the next couple of years, you are talking about guys like Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz, Shin Soo Choo, Nick Markakis and Colby Rausmus. That's not a group that's even close in talent to Hamilton.
Josh Hamilton is really the Red Sox best chance to acquire a premium outfielder not just this off-season but for the next couple of offseasons and god knows they need one and there isn't an obvious RF candidate in the system.
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Post by leo on Nov 27, 2012 14:01:31 GMT -5
[ Again, he's in his 30s and he's seen a ton of MLB pitching, and his approach if anything has gotten worse. Expecting that trend to reverse is the definition of wishful thinking. If anything the more likely outcome is that his approach continues to get worse. Just for a point of comparison, from ages 26-31 (his entire post-addict career), Josh Hamilton has a 620/263 K/BB ratio. During the same 26-31 period, Vlad Guerrero had a 401/370 K/BB ratio. Why on earth should Josh Hamilton have changed his approach after mashing pitching for an OPS north of 1100 from March through May, and being one of the best offensive players in the league between 2010 and 2012? I don't think it's necessarily that he can't change it - up until now, there has been no real reason for it. His talent is through the roof, but as mentioned, it is a high risk/high reward situation. With the financial flexibility the Red Sox have, it's worth the gamble. Plus, because of his known issues, you can potentially get him for 4/110, vs. the 8/200 deals other players of his caliber strike. So in any case, the risk is limited to 4-5 years.
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