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Thinking up a Bogaerts extension
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 10:59:33 GMT -5
btw, it may be time to extend Xander now/all star break. Boras client who will be a free agent at age 26. They should try to lock him up. Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M.
Or you can watch him spend his prime in pinstripes.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 8, 2015 11:13:04 GMT -5
btw, it may be time to extend Xander now/all star break. Boras client who will be a free agent at age 26. They should try to lock him up. Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M. Or you can watch him spend his prime in pinstripes. I'm sorry, but you don't have a good perception of the market if you think it would take 10/240 to extend him when he has 4.5 years of control remaining. And if you think that would be a good move I really don't know what to tell you.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2015 11:22:41 GMT -5
He requested and got permission from the league during ST. It's a lot like Waldon's agreed, but a tad different and now can see why he is the nasty guy he is now. Think Bard threw hard throwing 98mph and up? How about Capps throwing nothing under 98 with that hoppity skip? And, at the point of release, he is a couple of feet closer to home plate that a normal delivery. Reminds me of a cricket pitcher. He should just keep hopping until he's about 40 feet from home plate.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 11:25:04 GMT -5
btw, it may be time to extend Xander now/all star break. Boras client who will be a free agent at age 26. They should try to lock him up. Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M. Or you can watch him spend his prime in pinstripes. I'm sorry, but you don't have a good perception of the market if you think it would take 10/240 to extend him when he has 4.5 years of control remaining. And if you think that would be a good move I really don't know what to tell you. What's the going rate for a win? About $7M I've been told. If we assume Xander will be, on average, a 4 Win player over the next 10 years, even without adjusting for inflation, we're looking at $280M. So I factored in a discount, which would be a bit more significant if we factor inflation for years 6-10. He is a Boras client, so unless Xander really, really, really wants to be a Red Sox player for the next 10 years, if you don't reach a deal before his third year, Boras will "advise" him to test the market. At least, that is the Boras Corp.'s history with young, star free agents. Of course, Ben could open the bidding at $70M and see what happens....
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2015 11:27:54 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but you don't have a good perception of the market if you think it would take 10/240 to extend him when he has 4.5 years of control remaining. And if you think that would be a good move I really don't know what to tell you. What's the going rate for a win? About $7M I've been told. If we assume Xander will be, on average, a 4 Win player over the next 10 years, even without adjusting for inflation, we're looking at $280M. So I factored in a discount, which would be a bit more significant if we factor inflation for years 6-10. He is a Boras client, so unless Xander really, really, really wants to be a Red Sox player for the next 10 years, if you don't reach a deal before his third year, Boras will "advise" him to test the market. Of course, Ben could open the bidding at $70M and see what happens.... 4 years of control has nothing to do with the going rate of a win. You're talking about 6 years of free agency and 4 cost controlled years in a 10 year extension.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2015 11:30:01 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but you don't have a good perception of the market if you think it would take 10/240 to extend him when he has 4.5 years of control remaining. And if you think that would be a good move I really don't know what to tell you. What's the going rate for a win? About $7M I've been told. If we assume Xander will be, on average, a 4 Win player over the next 10 years, even without adjusting for inflation, we're looking at $280M. So I factored in a discount, which would be a bit more significant if we factor inflation for years 6-10.
He is a Boras client, so unless Xander really, really, really wants to be a Red Sox player for the next 10 years, if you don't reach a deal before his third year, Boras will "advise" him to test the market. At least, that is the Boras Corp.'s history with young, star free agents. Of course, Ben could open the bidding at $70M and see what happens.... Is that how you think this works? I'd start by finding comparable extension scenarios in the past 5 years and adjusting accordingly based on stats/projection.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 8, 2015 11:31:42 GMT -5
There's also the issue of risk taken on by the team, in return for a guaranteed income for the player. That has to factor into this and provide a discount to the buyers.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 11:34:59 GMT -5
What's the going rate for a win? About $7M I've been told. If we assume Xander will be, on average, a 4 Win player over the next 10 years, even without adjusting for inflation, we're looking at $280M. So I factored in a discount, which would be a bit more significant if we factor inflation for years 6-10.
He is a Boras client, so unless Xander really, really, really wants to be a Red Sox player for the next 10 years, if you don't reach a deal before his third year, Boras will "advise" him to test the market. At least, that is the Boras Corp.'s history with young, star free agents. Of course, Ben could open the bidding at $70M and see what happens.... Is that how you think this works? I'd start by finding comparable extension scenarios in the past 5 years and adjusting accordingly based on stats/projection. I'm trying to think like Scott Boras here. But what precedent is there for someone this young and with this kind of upside?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 8, 2015 11:35:05 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but you don't have a good perception of the market if you think it would take 10/240 to extend him when he has 4.5 years of control remaining. And if you think that would be a good move I really don't know what to tell you. What's the going rate for a win? About $7M I've been told. If we assume Xander will be, on average, a 4 Win player over the next 10 years, even without adjusting for inflation, we're looking at $280M. So I factored in a discount, which would be a bit more significant if we factor inflation for years 6-10. He is a Boras client, so unless Xander really, really, really wants to be a Red Sox player for the next 10 years, if you don't reach a deal before his third year, Boras will "advise" him to test the market. At least, that is the Boras Corp.'s history with young, star free agents. Of course, Ben could open the bidding at $70M and see what happens.... This just isn't at all how it works. Freddie Freeman, coming off 4.1 and 5.0 fWAR seasons and with only 3 years of control left signed an 8 year/$135M extension that bought out 5 years of control. Bogaerts will be coming off one season in that range and has one additional year of control at the minimum. You're essentially talking about paying him an extra $100M for that last year.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 8, 2015 11:39:14 GMT -5
And, at the point of release, he is a couple of feet closer to home plate that a normal delivery. Reminds me of a cricket pitcher. He should just keep hopping until he's about 40 feet from home plate. Craig Shipley seen scouting kangaroos in Australian Outback.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 8, 2015 11:39:46 GMT -5
Or how about Christian Yelich? He was a similarly regarded prospect coming off a 4.3 fWAR rookie season that signed for 7 years and just short of $50M with a $15M club option. He had more control than Bogaerts, but again, you're talking about an extra $200M almost. Crazy.
EDIT: Or Andrew McCutchen:
Year 1: 3.4 fWAR Year 2: 3.5 fWAR Year 3: 5.5 fWAR
With 1 pre-arb and 3 arb years remaining (same as Xander) he signed a 6 year $51.5M extension with a team option for $14.5M.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 8, 2015 12:06:37 GMT -5
Bogaerts right now is slated to hit FA as a 27 year old. I doubt Boras would even want a 10 year deal if he were negotiating an extension. Something like the rest of his team control years + 2-3 years of FA would be more likely I would guess.
Honestly, I don't think a deal gets done with Bogaerts, just as much because of the FO as Boras. Xander isn't the kind of player who is going to get huge arb payments unless he starts hitting for some power, so the risk of going year to year is relatively low. If that happens it's a different story, but otherwise I think they would need some cheap team options for FA years for it to be worth the risk, and I just don't see that happening.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 12:07:06 GMT -5
Or how about Christian Yelich? He was a similarly regarded prospect coming off a 4.3 fWAR rookie season that signed for 7 years and just short of $50M with a $15M club option. He had more control than Bogaerts, but again, you're talking about an extra $200M almost. Crazy. EDIT: Or Andrew McCutchen: Year 1: 3.4 fWAR Year 2: 3.5 fWAR Year 3: 5.5 fWAR With 1 pre-arb and 3 arb years remaining (same as Xander) he signed a 6 year $51.5M extension with a team option for $14.5M. McCutchen's agent: Steve Hammond Yelich's agent: Paragon Sports Freddie Freeman: Excel Sports Also, only McCutcheon plays a premium position among those. Hey, if you could get a 6-year extension out of Boras covering the first 3 of free agency, I'm all for it. But this is the same agent who got $154M for a 30 year old Jacoby Ellsbury, so imagine what he'll be shooting for with a 22/23 year old Xander Bogarts. And whenever you sit down to do the deal he's going to bring up Jeter, 10 years, $189M back in 2000, a contract today that goes for $261M (http://www.usinflationcalculator.com) for an older player (26) at the time.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2015 12:10:39 GMT -5
Why are you ignoring the cost-controlled years discount? Bogaerts automatically has a 4 year/maybe $20 million contract that you have to tear up to replace with an extension.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 12:24:19 GMT -5
Why are you ignoring the cost-controlled years discount? Bogaerts automatically has a 4 year/maybe $20 million contract that you have to tear up to replace with an extension. I'm not ignoring, I'm projecting Boras and his sense of "fair value." But, OK, maybe I'm shooting high here. All I know is once his stars start to reach the arb years, especially position players in good health, he has a history of riding it out until free agency unless the guy instructs him to cut a deal with the current team (which Boras clients tend to not do, which is why they hire Boras).
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 12:30:20 GMT -5
Jeter signed that extension one year away from free agency, so that is a totally meaningless comp.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 8, 2015 12:41:55 GMT -5
Why are you ignoring the cost-controlled years discount? Bogaerts automatically has a 4 year/maybe $20 million contract that you have to tear up to replace with an extension. He could easily get 30-40 million or more over the 3 years of arb, if he continues on a path of improvement he is on. Unless I am wrong, he is going to be compared to players of his position for the arb valuation. He's already one of the best SS's in the American League. I don't think a 7 year 110-120 million dollar extension is unfair for either party, if they were so inclined. The problem is that the Sox have Hanny and Sandy on the books for big cash, and more than likely need to spend money on FA pitching in the near future. Oh and there's the Mookie Betts looming contract issue.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 12:51:37 GMT -5
Jeter signed that extension one year away from free agency, so that is a totally meaningless comp. I was taking about years, not control. If Xander gets to 1 year away and Boras is his agent, he is not signing with the Red Sox. I will throw that marker down right now and bet a $100 donation to the Sox Prospects site on it.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 12:52:34 GMT -5
Why are you ignoring the cost-controlled years discount? Bogaerts automatically has a 4 year/maybe $20 million contract that you have to tear up to replace with an extension. He could easily get 30-40 million or more over the 3 years of arb, if he continues on a path of improvement he is on. Unless I am wrong, he is going to be compared to players of his position for the arb valuation. He's already one of the best SS's in the American League. I don't think a 7 year 110-120 million dollar extension is unfair for either party, if they were so inclined. The problem is that the Sox have Hanny and Sandy on the books for big cash, and more than likely need to spend money on FA pitching in the near future. Oh and there's the Mookie Betts looming contract issue. Love this.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 12:57:15 GMT -5
The high-end comparables for a Bogaerts extension:Carlos Gonzalez (Boras client) (January 2011): - 7 years, $80m
- Signed at age 25, covers through his age-32 season
- Signed with four years of team control left (equivalent to Bogaerts' service time this coming offseason); covers one pre-arb year, three arb years, three FA years
- Coming off a third place MVP vote season.
- Commentary: this extension, plus inflation, is probably the best comp I've seen. Similar career arc to Bogaerts (highly-regarded prospect, minor struggles to start his career but coming off a breakout year).
Buster Posey (March 2013) - 8 years, $159m (really 9 years, $167m since they had already agreed to 2013 arb salary), with additional $22m option
- Signed at age 26, covers through age-34 season
- Signed with three years of team control left; covers three arb season, five free agency years (option for sixth)
- Coming off MVP 2012. Much better than Bogaerts is at the same stage in their careers.
- Commentary: The high-water mark. Posey was better and closer to free agency than Bogaerts is, and this is the biggest extension for a player with similar service time ever.
Mike Trout (March 2014) - 6 years, $144.5m (really 7 years, $145m, since he was already under control at the minimum for 2014)
- Signed at age 22, covers through age-28 season
- Signed with four years of team control left (same as Bogaerts this coming offseason); covers one pre-arb season, three arb seasons, and three free agency years
- Signed with best player in the world status.
- Commentary: Trout was way, way, WAY better than Bogaerts is. But this was widely regarded as a below-market extension at the time, so maybe a slightly lesser version of this extension may be what Boras would aim for.
Conclusion: based on the above, something like 7 years, $120m (through Bogaerts' age-30 season, covering one pre-arb, three arb, and three free agent years) seems like what would be the top end of the market.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 8, 2015 12:57:40 GMT -5
I would wait 2 years and see what things look like then.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 13:01:07 GMT -5
Here's a list of extensions for players with between one and three years of service time. I specifically picked only the most expensive extensions to discuss above in order to define the top end of the market, but there are plenty of recent extensions for players with similar performance levels/pedigrees as Bogaerts who signed for much, much less.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 13:01:58 GMT -5
Jeter signed that extension one year away from free agency, so that is a totally meaningless comp. I was taking about years, not control. ...and you continue to ignore service time, which matters far, far more than years.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 13:02:07 GMT -5
The high-end comparables for a Bogaerts extension:Carlos Gonzalez (Boras client) (January 2011): - 7 years, $80m
- Signed at age 25, covers through his age-32 season
- Signed with four years of team control left (equivalent to Bogaerts' service time this coming offseason); covers one pre-arb year, three arb years, three FA years
- Coming off a third place MVP vote season.
- Commentary: this extension, plus inflation, is probably the best comp I've seen. Similar career arc to Bogaerts (highly-regarded prospect, minor struggles to start his career but coming off a breakout year).
Buster Posey (March 2013) - 8 years, $159m (really 9 years, $167m since they had already agreed to 2013 arb salary), with additional $22m option
- Signed at age 26, covers through age-34 season
- Signed with three years of team control left; covers three arb season, five free agency years (option for sixth)
- Coming off MVP 2012. Much better than Bogaerts is at the same stage in their careers.
- Commentary: The high-water mark. Posey was better and closer to free agency than Bogaerts is, and this is the biggest extension for a player with similar service time ever.
Mike Trout (March 2014) - 6 years, $144.5m (really 7 years, $145m, since he was already under control at the minimum for 2014)
- Signed at age 22, covers through age-28 season
- Signed with four years of team control left (same as Bogaerts this coming offseason); covers one pre-arb season, three arb seasons, and three free agency years
- Signed with best player in the world status.
- Commentary: Trout was way, way, WAY better than Bogaerts is. But this was widely regarded as a below-market extension at the time, so maybe a slightly lesser version of this extension may be what Boras would aim for.
Conclusion: based on the above, something like 7 years, $120m (through Bogaerts' age-30 season, covering one pre-arb, three arb, and three free agent years) seems like what would be the top end of the market. Ok, then. My only quibble with this is Cargo reportedly wanted to stay with Colorado. But otherwise sound. So given that it could cost you anywhere from $120M to say, $150M to sign him now/next year until he's 30 would y'all do it?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2015 13:06:38 GMT -5
Yeah, I'd be good with that, which is about half of what you were calling the Red Sox stupid for not offering.
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