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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Jul 9, 2015 20:43:12 GMT -5
If their going to make a run they have to add to the bullpen. Breslow is the worst pitcher in all of baseball, Ross and Barnes haven't been reliable, and Ogando and Layne have had their bad moments. Taz and Koji have been top notch but with issues anyone who isn't Clay, E-Rod, or Miley you need a deeper bullpen. Unless we pickup another young starter ala Walker, Grey, Fernandez, any SD or Mets guys, etc. I think you have to solidify the bullpen not hot patch fix it. Here are some higher-end guys that could be available: CL: Arodis Chapman Craig Kimbrel Francisco Rodriguez Jason Grilli Cody Allen
SU: JJ Hoover Shawn Tolleson Bobby Parnell Shawn Kelley Bryan Shaw
LHR: Manny Parra Charlie Furbush Neal Cotts
Mid: Brandon Maurer
Or maybe Light, Aro, Barnes, and Escobar take over and we can serve some Breslow on a stick.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 9, 2015 22:28:39 GMT -5
Bobby Parnell is interesting to me. He's a free agent after the season so he probably wouldn't cost a ton to get, especially since I can't see him getting a QO so soon after his injury. It's hard to gauge what it would take to get him but I'd definitely kick the tires there. He may have re-established enough value that someone desperate would trade too much for him but he's someone I've liked for years.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 10, 2015 9:17:00 GMT -5
Neftali Feliz is available as he has elected free agency after being designated by the Rangers. Though he doesn't throw in the upper nineties as he used to when he was one of the best closers in the League, he's still its 93 on a consistent basis and is still young. Other teams, no doubt will be bidding for his services.
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Post by thegoo13 on Jul 10, 2015 9:39:17 GMT -5
Feliz looked really good before being injured. Didn't come back, at least to date, like a lot do from TJ. I would think Sox would be interested here if the price was right though.
He could be a guy who could help this year with the potential to be better next?
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 10, 2015 9:41:30 GMT -5
ZiPS projects Feliz for a 4.05 ERA going forward. Relievers with better projections include Tommy Layne, Heath Hembree and Robbie Ross Jr.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2015 9:45:53 GMT -5
ZiPS projects Feliz for a 4.05 ERA going forward. Relievers with better projections include Tommy Layne, Heath Hembree and Robbie Ross Jr. But not Breslow, so he's an upgrade.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 10, 2015 10:07:19 GMT -5
I really like Glen Perkins, although the Twins are actually competing and he is signed through 2017 + 18 option, so he probably isn't moving.
I'd add Papelbon to the list, I think he is a solid target.
Shawn Kelley is interesting. FA after this year and isn't overwhelming with stats so he should be cheap, but could help in the 6-7th.
Our relievers seems to get better when they are pitching for other teams, Melancon, Wilson, Morales.
I'll give this more thought. I don't think we need an ace, just a stronger bullpen and maybe a 4-5 starter if Kelley, Johnson, or Masterson can't lock down the role. Masterson's name is in italics because I said it sarcastically.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 10, 2015 10:10:55 GMT -5
Also any word on Hembree's shoulder? He's a guy I think deserves an extended look in the show. I don't think he'll ever be a late inning reliever like Tazawa, but he could be solid in the 6th inning.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2015 10:37:33 GMT -5
ZiPS projects Feliz for a 4.05 ERA going forward. Relievers with better projections include Tommy Layne, Heath Hembree and Robbie Ross Jr. With an injured guy like that, though, is a projection system going to be nearly as useful? Honest question. I also don't pretend to be intimately familiar with his injury and bullpen-to-rotation-to-bullpen recent history, but he seems like a guy you snag if your people see something they can fix.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 10, 2015 12:50:08 GMT -5
ZiPS projects Feliz for a 4.05 ERA going forward. Relievers with better projections include Tommy Layne, Heath Hembree and Robbie Ross Jr. With an injured guy like that, though, is a projection system going to be nearly as useful? Honest question. I also don't pretend to be intimately familiar with his injury and bullpen-to-rotation-to-bullpen recent history, but he seems like a guy you snag if your people see something they can fix. You can probably do a bit better than the projection system if you know with some certainty when he was pitching injured and stuff. I didn't bother to look into it too closely either, but even at a glance you can see that his xFIP has never been particularily impressive. As for the Sox fixing stuff... yeah look how they fixed Porcello's pitching from the stretch. I'll believe it when I see it.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 11, 2015 1:20:51 GMT -5
Although he has a rough season to date, I like the potential of quackenbach of the Padres. We could probably pick him up fairly cheap.
The Padres do have huge hole at shortstop, but bogey is an untouchable, so maybe we can send marrero to them for quackenbach.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2015 13:32:24 GMT -5
“@jonheymancbs: Jonathan Papelbon said if he’s still in philly ”I won’t be happy! But hat’s not going to affect how I prepare“”
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 15, 2015 1:52:32 GMT -5
Here are all the guys having setup-quality or better years for current likely sellers. Score is a weighted SD above average for the four metrics; for a point of comparison, Tazawa is 0.7, Uehara 0.5, Ogando 0.2, Layne 0.1.
Name Team Th xFIP- SIERA WPA WAR Score Contract A.J. Ramos Marlins R 71 2.12 1.22 1.8 1.6 3Arb Fran. Rodriguez Brewers R 66 2.29 1.61 1.5 1.6 1/9.5 or 2/13.5 Brad Ziegler Dbacks R 90 2.87 1.83 1.7 1.5 1/5.5O Aroldis Chapman Reds L 71 2.10 1.25 1.4 1.4 1Arb Carter Capps Marlins R 31 0.76 0.45 1.0 1.4 3Arb David Robertson W Sox R 51 1.59 1.09 1.0 1.3 3/36 Jona. Papelbon Phil R 87 2.62 1.57 1.3 1.2 1/13 vests w/19 GF Shawn Tolleson Rangers R 80 2.68 1.56 1.1 1.1 3Yr John Axford Rockies R 90 3.12 1.49 0.9 0.8 1Arb Jim Johnson Braves R 97 3.39 0.95 1.2 0.7 FA Brandon Maurer Padres R 97 3.40 0.94 1.2 0.7 4Yrs Michael Blazek Brewers R 90 3.11 0.62 1.2 0.7 5Yrs Jason Grilli Braves R 78 2.36 1.06 0.6 0.7 1/3.75 or 2/6.5 Craig Kimbrel Padres R 65 2.29 1.25 0.3 0.7 2/25 or 3/37 J.J. Hoover Reds R 108 4.10 1.76 1.0 0.7 3Arb Jeremy Jeffress Brewers R 83 2.77 0.87 0.7 0.6 4Yrs Jake Petricka W Sox R 86 2.99 0.67 0.8 0.5 4Yrs Will Smith Brewers L 79 2.59 0.01 0.8 0.4 4Yrs Zach Duke W Sox L 96 3.52 1.13 0.6 0.4 2/10.5 There are so few quality LHP currently available that a trade for one at the deadline seems unlikely. We certainly have enough of them to develop one of our own.
It would, however, make sense to outbid other clubs (within reason) to get one of 6-11 RHP who could play a key role in the future. In rough order of ascending salary commitment, Axford, [Grilli], Ziegler, Hoover, Tolleson, Capps, Ramos, [Rodriguez], and maybe [Papelbon, Kimbrel], and Robertson. You might not want to give up too much for the last two. If there are GMs who still buy into the closer mystique, the bracketed guys are likely to have their trade values inflated somewhat.
How many other clubs will be looking to shore up their pen? Very likely the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Rays, and Tigers, and maybe the Twins. Possibly even the Angels and Astros. That's 11 to 14 clubs. But as some clubs will have internal options that they like (or have just discovered and haven't pitched enough to get into my spreadsheet), this actually looks like an OK market for buyers.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 15, 2015 8:04:21 GMT -5
Fix it internally
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Post by seanleary001 on Jul 15, 2015 8:30:43 GMT -5
What ever happened to Brian Johnson?
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 15, 2015 8:58:00 GMT -5
What ever happened to Brian Johnson? You mean what didn't happen to Brian Johnson... what didn't happen is that he hasn't yet shown that he sucks enough at starting to be moved to the bullpen.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 15, 2015 9:21:49 GMT -5
Wonder if Dayan Diaz gets the next shot. He's been pitching pretty well in Pawtucket and is a legitimate power arm.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 15, 2015 9:49:20 GMT -5
The Red Sox shouldn't be trading any real assets to buy this year. Maybe they can move Napoli for a piece they can flip for a bullpen arm. Help the team in two fronts - dropping Nap and adding an arm.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 15, 2015 10:42:30 GMT -5
If we make a run into buyers land, I wonder if the Phillies would be willing to package Giles and Papelbon together. It'd be hard for them to give up a 25 year old established bullpen arm with only 2 years of service time, but it would allow us to give up real value to get back some value outside of a rental.
Cecchinni has been scouted by Phillies forever, and he is a good change of scenery candidate who doesn't have a clear future in Boston, he's also been hitting better recently. I'd give them another mid level position player of their choice, Sam Travis (probably him), Rijo, Dubon, Longhi, Asuje, or Coyle. Then add in a high minors relief pitcher of their choice, excluding Pat Light. So Hembree, Workman, Ramirez, Aro, Escobar, Diaz, or Spruill. The sprinkle on top would be a lottery ticket, or Brentz, and I wouldn't ask for any cash for Papelbons contract. I think that is a solid opening offer that RAJ would probably want to build on. If need be, we could add a Barnes, Chavis, Stankiewicz, or Buttrey card to the mix.
Maybe I'm undervaluing Giles, thoughts?
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 15, 2015 11:16:15 GMT -5
If we make a run into buyers land, I wonder if the Phillies would be willing to package Giles and Papelbon together. It'd be hard for them to give up a 25 year old established bullpen arm with only 2 years of service time, but it would allow us to give up real value to get back some value outside of a rental. Cecchinni has been scouted by Phillies forever, and he is a good change of scenery candidate who doesn't have a clear future in Boston, he's also been hitting better recently. I'd give them another mid level position player of their choice, Sam Travis (probably him), Rijo, Dubon, Longhi, Asuje, or Coyle. Then add in a high minors relief pitcher of their choice, excluding Pat Light. So Hembree, Workman, Ramirez, Aro, Escobar, Diaz, or Spruill. The sprinkle on top would be a lottery ticket, or Brentz, and I wouldn't ask for any cash for Papelbons contract. I think that is a solid opening offer that RAJ would probably want to build on. If need be, we could add a Barnes, Chavis, Stankiewicz, or Buttrey card to the mix. Maybe I'm undervaluing Giles, thoughts? Sounds like a whole lot for a couple of relievers, especially if we're taking on all of Papelbon's money. I could see Cecchini, one of the relief arms, and one mid-level position player with some upside, probably Rijo, maybe Coyle. But I don't see the point in giving up a lottery ticket for relief pitching in a season where we don't have a great shot at the playoffs: I'd rather keep Barnes and see if he figures it out (I'm betting he will), no way I'm dealing Chavis this early in a deal like that, and I don't think it makes sense to deal either of Stank or Buttrey, just because by the sound of things they both look like they have a good chance to stick at the back end of a big league rotation, which is valuable
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 15, 2015 12:53:46 GMT -5
Yea, but Giles is a pretty good reliever with 4 more years of team control. He would comp favorably to Tazawa in 2013, as he had a better track record. Giles strikes out more batters while walking more. Giles fits on any team in the MLB's 25 man roster. Papelbon is a rental with big salary $'s, but he still would have value to a contender, and just about any contender would like another back end bullpen arm. The trade would also drastically improve our bullpen giving us 4 very good (right handed) relievers.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 15, 2015 13:29:33 GMT -5
I don't know, I figure Barnes has a pretty good shot to turn into a very good major league reliever and I don't like the idea of giving up a bunch of prospects for an upgrade that might not even be much of an upgrade in a year or two, and probably doesn't matter much to us this year. Given that we'd already be giving them financial flexibility, I don't see why we'd also chip in 4-5 prospects, especially the guys who are still comparatively unknown and possibly promising like Travis and Chavis- don't like the idea of giving them up a year into their pro-careers without getting more value
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 15, 2015 14:15:30 GMT -5
I don't know, I figure Barnes has a pretty good shot to turn into a very good major league reliever Barnes ceiling as a reliever is less than what Giles is right now. I have higher hopes for Banes too, but unless you've been sleeping since April, he has not been adjusting to his relief role. Giles is also younger. and I don't like the idea of giving up a bunch of prospects for an upgrade that might not even be much of an upgrade in a year or two, and probably doesn't matter much to us this year. Given that we'd already be giving them financial flexibility We're not buying relievers (or any piece) unless we cut down the 6.5 games we are down on the division over the next two weeks, this is what I meant when I said if we run into buyers land. We have Barnes (-.5 Fwar), Ogando (-.5 Fwar), Breslow (-.3 Fwar), and Ross (-.2 Fwar) in our bullpen right now, replacing two of those with Papelbon (.5 Fwar) and Giles (.8 Fwar) gives us a projected + ~ 2 Fwar for the second half, and also give us a top 20 reliever (both last year and this year) for the next 4 years. For the Phillies, the ~6M we'd be taking off their books for Papelbon's 2015 salary is close to meaningless to them when compared to prospect return, and his option isn't likely to vest if he is traded. As bad as his contract looked at the time, he's basically performed to his salary. I don't see why we'd also chip in 4-5 prospects, especially the guys who are still comparatively unknown and possibly promising like Travis and Chavis- don't like the idea of giving them up a year into their pro-careers without getting more value My original proposal was composed of 2 mid level position prospects (2 players from 15-25 range), 1 high minors reliever (around 25+ range), and a lottery ticket (meaning someone who probably isn't ranked on this site, but has some tools). I meant using Barnes, Chavis, Stank, Buttrey instead of one of the above pieces, and I was really trying to shy away from Chavis. In reality you have to give value to get value and I thought my original proposal was light. At least I'm not proposing Sale, Goldschmidt, or Fernandez for spare parts.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 15, 2015 14:45:53 GMT -5
My original proposal was composed of 2 mid level position prospects (2 players from 15-25 range), 1 high minors reliever (around 25+ range), and a lottery ticket (meaning someone who probably isn't ranked on this site, but has some tools). I meant using Barnes, Chavis, Stank, Buttrey instead of one of the above pieces, and I was really trying to shy away from Chavis. In reality you have to give value to get value and I thought my original proposal was light. At least I'm not proposing Sale, Goldschmidt, or Fernandez for spare parts. Fair enough, that makes more sense, but in all honesty I don't like the idea of dealing multiple prospects for relievers. I don't think it ever works out- look at Gagne, Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller for Rodriguez, and those are just off the top of my head. I'd be ok with one or two solid young players that could easily start for them that might have difficulty carving out a role in Boston (JBJ, Cecchini, Coyle, Marrero) and maybe someone like Hembree or Escobar, but including guys with serious upside for a year of Papelbon and 4 of Giles doesn't seem like a good plan to me. I'd much rather trust that Barnes improves and maybe deal a smaller package for just Papelbon or someone similar, or just fill out the bullpen in free agency/the offseason
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 15, 2015 16:43:37 GMT -5
I hate repeating myself, but trading for Papelbon or Giles seems pretty hopeless until Amaro gets fired. He'd probably ask for Rodriguez and Swihart.
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