nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,918
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Post by nomar on Aug 2, 2015 11:55:04 GMT -5
He may be placed on waivers. I think he warrants taking a hard look at.
His HR/9 this year is a big 1.5, and his HR/FB jumped from 8.4% on his career to 14.7% this year. What is causing this? His K and BB rates haven't changed much.
He isn't a ground ball pitcher, but gets a lot of FB to CF and RF, which works in Fenway well enough.
He gets 16.8M the next two seasons, and has an 2018 option for 16M. If we think he's fixable maybe a trade could be reached where Detroit eats some of that and we give a good but not great spec in return. Having him at 11.5M/yr slotted in the 4th rotation spot could be solid.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 2, 2015 12:04:46 GMT -5
I've always liked him. If Det. will eat a good chunk of salary, It could be worth doing.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 3, 2015 11:43:54 GMT -5
Could be an off-season acquisition. It appears the team is going to focus on young pitchers for most of the remaining season. This way it can evaluate whom it wants on the 2016 roster and whom it will make available to trade.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 3, 2015 14:23:57 GMT -5
Could be an off-season acquisition. It appears the team is going to focus on young pitchers for most of the remaining season. This way it can evaluate whom it wants on the 2016 roster and whom it will make available to trade. Seems to be the purpose of the waiver wire...gives teams a chance to claim players and explore what the controlling team wants in return for that player. I doubt they'd pick him up in-season unless Detroit is trying to shed salary and doesn't ask for much in return...and the Sox think the deal is too good to wait on.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 3, 2015 15:02:47 GMT -5
FWIW, I am tempted to believe this is just an off year for Sanchez, and I think he'd be a solid acquisition. His contract ends just about when he'd be expected to go into rapid decline, and it's relatively reasonable. His avg velocity is pretty stable and the only change in repertoire use looking at fangraphs is the introduction of a cutter at the expense of his (very good) slider. His HR/FB rate is astronomically higher than career norms. His pitch values are down all around, so maybe he's got some nagging injuries causing poor command. Lester had a similar poor year in 2012 and bounced back by focusing on getting popups with the cutter...so despite an awful year he was able to make some small adjustments and within two years pitch better than he ever had. Sanchez is a bit older and historically injury-prone, but if the Tigers would trade him with only minimal salary relief (2-3M/yr) and in exchange take a reduced prospect package, I think it could be a solid deal for the Sox. Sanchez when right is a superb 3/solid 2. If the Sox were willing to sign Cueto, a rotation of Cueto/Rodriguez/Buchholz/Porcello/Owens (or Johnson) would be quite solid. It would allow them to trade Miley, and maybe dangle Buchholz. Sanchez's contract would also expire right around the time Kopech and Espinoza could be expected to be pushing to join the major league rotation. With Napoli, Victorino, and Masterson off the books this winter, that's $38M to spend. A not-insignificant portion of that is going to non-arb and especially arb raises, and option raises. But trading Miley and inserting Owens or Johnson saves $6M (?) and letting Breslow and other dead weight in the bullpen go probably saves $2-3M more. Cueto at 6/$160 (very lightly backloaded, say $25M for 2016) and Sancez at $15M/yr with slight relief from Detroit means basically a flat payroll.
I like getting CC from the Indians and signing Cueto more, but CC will probably cost much, much more in prospects. If Samchez can be gotten for basically just salary relief and nominal prospect cost, that's not a bad deal. That said, the Sox are so flush with prospects, they can't find spots for them all to play, so trading from excess isn't a bad idea, especially since 1) Cueto won't cost their second-round pick, which looks to be a pick in the 40 overall area, and 2) they just signed Moncada, Espinoza, and Benintendi...and look to add a top-5 pick in the draft next summer. So their lower-minors talent is both deep and has tremendous upside. They can afford to lose a top ten prospect and a second B-grade prospect and not bat an eye. When your AAA utility INF is an above-avg SS who's hitting .310/.350/.450 (roughly) with a *bunch* of doubles...and is only 22...and not in your top-10...well, that's a good place to be.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2015 16:17:54 GMT -5
Depends on cost. Also its either you send a weak return and assume the full contract or they eat a good amount of money and you send them a better package. Don't think you get them to eat a lot of money and then trade him for a small return. Even in a down year he's still a good #4/5 starter. I am not trading a Owens or even a Johnson to Detroit for Sanchez.
I really like Latos and think we should go after him this offseason. After injury problems for close to a year he is back to being a good 2-3 type of pitcher. Don't have a pay a comp pick, only 27. Can't see him getting more then 4 years and 60 million and that's only if he pitches well down the stretch for the Dodgers.
Sign Price or Cueto, then add a player like Latos and you should have one good staff. I don't care about the cost of signing an elite pitcher like Price or Cueto. In our market we can afford it. I really want to thank the Tigers, Reds and Marlins for trading those guys as they no longer have comp picks attached to them!! I just feel like we need two good starters as you can't count on Clay. Maybe Owens or Johnson can make a case for a spot in the next two months, but as right now we only have three pitchers for next year in Rodriguez, Porcello and Miley.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2015 20:39:50 GMT -5
I'd be interested, but I honestly don't see Detroit selling low on a guy who is probably still good and is just getting bit by a tad of HR/FB bad luck.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 7, 2015 14:00:06 GMT -5
His fastball has ticked down a bit the last two years since his last really good season in 2013. His FB then averaged 93.1 and it is down to 91.8 now. Not a huge change but if he also is having some command problems, it may explain the huge increase in HRs allowed.
He hasn't been a very durable pitcher for much of his career but when he is healthy he is pretty good, a 3-4 starter. I've always liked him but unless he is cheap, I think I would rather see the Sox get a pitcher like him a little younger and a little more durable.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 7, 2015 15:04:04 GMT -5
Sanchez is owed almost $17 million each of the next two years; this is not the direction the Red Sox need to going.
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