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Post by lasershow07 on Dec 4, 2012 14:08:19 GMT -5
It's no secret the Sox aren't going to be competitive next year without substantial improvement from the pitching staff. It looks like the biggest potential improvements are probably coming internally at this point, as Greinke is going to cost an empire and Sanchez might cost a kingdom. Doug Thorburn writes an excellent series for baseballprospectus on pitching, earlier this year he touched on Buchholz's struggles in an article (subscriber). He says Buch uses pretty severe spine-tilt to get to his high 3/4 delivery that exaggerates his already poor balance, resulting in spotty command and reduced velocity. Thorburn suggests this could be a problem that could be fixed with improved posture, just getting Buch to 'stand up' into his release point. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17216My question is how difficult is it for pitchers to make adjustments like this? Could Ferrell scare Buchholz into making this adjustment? I'm looking for Mellen's opinion on this in particular, and whether or not this was ever an area of concern for you watching Buchholz track through the minors.
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 4, 2012 14:22:29 GMT -5
It's no secret the Sox aren't going to be competitive next year without substantial improvement from the pitching staff. It looks like the biggest potential improvements are probably coming internally at this point, as Greinke is going to cost an empire and Sanchez might cost a kingdom. Doug Thorburn writes an excellent series for baseballprospectus on pitching, earlier this year he touched on Buchholz's struggles in an article (subscriber). He says Buch uses pretty severe spine-tilt to get to his high 3/4 delivery that exaggerates his already poor balance, resulting in spotty command and reduced velocity. Thorburn suggests this could be a problem that could be fixed with improved posture, just getting Buch to 'stand up' into his release point. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17216My question is how difficult is it for pitchers to make adjustments like this? Could Ferrell scare Buchholz into making this adjustment? I'm looking for Mellen's opinion on this in particular, and whether or not this was ever an area of concern for you watching Buchholz track through the minors. If Farrell were to address this... don't you think it qould have been while he was Clay's pitching coach? Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by lasershow07 on Dec 4, 2012 14:30:01 GMT -5
Good point. I'm just interested in the extent this is perceived as a problem. Whether or not the spine-tilt has become exaggerated during the last few seasons while he's had some significant struggles. Also, I understand there can be a trade off between release point and platoon splits, although plenty of pitchers have been really successful with low 3/4s deliveries (Randy Johnson, Pedro).
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 4, 2012 20:10:07 GMT -5
I mentioned several times thru the 'old' web server that I thought Buch did not pitch/release directly to the plate but rather 'listed' to the left (1B side) on delivery. To me, he had lateral body movement and was possibly throwing with less velocity as a result (weight not being directed toward the target). Also, IMO by drifting toward the 1B line, it had to be more difficult for him to achieve consistent accuracy. His body was leaning left but he had to adjust for that in directing his pitches....end result to me...less accuracy and less velocity.
I don't know whether the referenced article (I could not retrieve it) addressed these issues, but this was my amateur observation.
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Post by Chris Mellen on Dec 4, 2012 22:18:24 GMT -5
I wondered how much the back injury affected Clay Buchholz at the beginning of this season and having to break some bad habits as a result caused from the injury. He had pitched through it the previous year before being shut down, which likely caused him to alter or compensate for it. Those type of things, even slight, can have a big effect.
In 2008, I believe they tried to tweak Buchholz's arm slot a touch lower during his struggles that season and it didn't really take. A lot of his deception, especially with the changeup, comes from his high 3/4 release point. When on, its just about seem-less between his fastball, changeup, and curveball. That's where he gets all of the leverage on the curve too to throw it with the depth and teeth. A lot of times this past season it rolled to the plate without any finish. The change went in and out and the fastball stayed up. Its all tied into his release point.
Buchholz will lose deception and leverage when his release point waivers, which hurts his velocity and likeness between the fastball and secondary offerings. He tips his pitches because of the more unique nature of where he releases the ball as opposed to other pitchers. Good hitters key in and pick up on that.
The main concern with Buchholz coming up was his fastball command. He straightened that out some and in 2010 was much more of a downhill thrower than he'd ever been. Again, when he isn't getting the leverage, the fastball is flat and there is drag in creating velocity. Its tough to tell how much exactly the back injury altered him. He's always landed toward first base more pronounced as long as I can remember and lacked some consistent timing with his landing overall. But, the really bad stretch to start the year was different because it was a total struggle to finish any of his pitches, not just the fastball. The angle and release point were completely out of whack.
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Post by lasershow07 on Dec 6, 2012 23:48:15 GMT -5
Thanks, Chris. To the community here, we should all seriously consider how lucky we are as baseball fans and in particular as Red Sox fans to have a site like soxprospects where we can get questions answered about our favorite players from a legitimate scout. Wow.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 18, 2013 8:48:31 GMT -5
I'll put this here. Informative article explaining that Buchholz's rise in K rate this year has been largely attributable to a rise in called strikeouts.
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Post by soxcentral on Aug 23, 2014 17:58:15 GMT -5
Personally, I have never been a huge fan. However, he is potentially a game changer for next year's rotation if he can stop the trend of getting worse with age, instead of better.
Could the cure be as simple as a change in pitch selection?
I think Clay is just about out of chances to become a rotation staple in Boston. Too many arms behind him ready to contribute now.
Wondering whether the consensus here is that he is salvageable and worth being given the ball every 5 days, or if its time to move on.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2014 18:15:51 GMT -5
It's way past the time to move on.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 23, 2014 19:06:27 GMT -5
Since the start of July, he has a 3.56 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP, both better than his career numbers by quite a bit. He's posted an awful ERA mostly because he hasn't been stranding runners, mostly because he's allowed a huge BABIP with runners in scoring position. For his career, Buchholz actually has a .287 BABIP, so I don't see much of a reason to assume this is going to be sustainable. He's pitched quite well lately by the most predictive metrics, so I don't think he's broken at all. I don't think he'll be the ace that he's flashed at times, but I think he's a solid #3/#4 with potential for a little better, if he can stay healthy.
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 23, 2014 19:53:52 GMT -5
The whole "move Buchholz to the pen" crap that a few of y'all are saying it simply obnoxious. The pen is for guys with 2 pitch mixes who don't have the stamina to make it as a starter. Clay is the complete opposite of that. It sucks to see a guy w/ stuff as good as his pitch this poorly for an extended period of time, but that's just the pitcher Clay is. In 2015, we'll either see him go 9-0 w/ a sub-2.25 ERA before hitting the DL, or get bombed every start. Then hit the DL of course. Let's just hope for the former, he has the talent.
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