SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
September Rankings Discussion
duda
Rookie
Posts: 15 
|
Post by duda on Aug 27, 2015 12:21:13 GMT -5
Can I get any support for Williams Jerez sneaking into the back end of the top 20? Or is he closer to 30?
A few guys, I light to keep tabs on are Light, Younginer, Jerez and Whitson who was last seen on the back of a mild carton.
With regard to each, can I get some opinions on:
1. Light: seems to have high heat. Is his fastball straight? How likely is it that he earns a bullpen role next year. Control seems to be an issue
2. Younginer: Was well thought of when drafted, and has kind of hidden within the organization. Is he still considered a legit prospect: Bullpen I assume.
3. Jerez: I think his upside is underplayed. He seems to have taken really well to pitching, and following only his stat lines, seems to be doing well. How likely is it that he would be taken if exposed in the rule 5 this winter. If he stays within the sox organization where does he slot next year?
4. Whitson: I thought he was going to be a guy who flew through the low minors this year. His velocity seemed to be back at the end of his UF days, and seemed to do well in the few innings in Lowell last year. Now he is gone. Can anybody help with some info that I may have missed on him. Thanks.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2015 12:27:45 GMT -5
Younginer - discussed on the podcast that went up last night. Give it a listen.  Whitson - all we know is that he's hurt. Don't know specifics beyond that. He finally fell out of the top 60, it looks like, assuming we don't tweak things. |
|
|
|
Post by jchang on Aug 27, 2015 12:47:28 GMT -5
Moncada - 70
Owens - 65
Devers - 65
Espinoza - 60
Benintendi - 55
Johnson -- 50
Margot -- 55
Guerra -- 50
Travis S -- 45
S Travis -- 45
I am not down on Devers, I just think Owens is underrated. Sure, I think Espinoza is likely to be grade 7 with upside by mid next year, but until then. I know I have Johnson 50 over Margot 55, but Johnson is more valuable now.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 27, 2015 13:01:13 GMT -5
This is a fun game to play when your team has good prospects.
The top 4 - for me - should be virtually untouchable
1) Moncada (once he finds a position and gets more experience, I expect him to be an all-star)
2) Devers (should be a middle of the order masher who can hit, like Moncada will need to find his position.)
3) Espinoza (the best high ceiling Red Sox pitching prospect since Clemens?)
4) Benintendi (should have good plate discipline, hit his share of homers, and play anywhere in the OF.)
The next set I would anticipate being good solid players on the Sox - if they're not traded
5) Margot (with JBJ's emergence, he could be expendable, especially if his plate discipline doesn't improve, but he'll be good.)
6) Owens (Sox need to be patient with this kid. I think he'll need time to harness control. Can see him pitching a no-no someday
7) Travis (should be a solid regular 1b, who can hit and will have some pop in his bat)
8) Kopech (He could be a top notch starter to go with Espinoza by the end of the decade)
9) Johnson (solid #4 type starter)
10) Guerra (If the Sox don't deal him, he could very well be Bogaerts' replacement at SS, whether by FA or moving Xander to 3b.)
The next ten I'm totally guessing on:
11) Shaw
12) Longhi
13) Allen
14) Light
15) Jerez
16) Whitson
17) Basaabe
18) Rijo
19) Buttrey
20) Dubon
|
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2015 14:02:17 GMT -5
The current Top 8, in whatever order you have it, is just lovely. I'd have Guerra eighth but could easily have him in the top 60 in all of baseball. Kopech is a forgotten man with the suspension, but he deserves being in this tier. Respectfully disagree. We can't claim PEDs have no effect when convenient. He probably just stupidly took some supplement and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in general, but it plants enough of a seed of doubt to knock him down a tier. While I don't know enough about all of the prospects around the game to make an informed Top 100 list, I don't think I'd argue for Kopech to be on it. To me he's a clear step down from Johnson/Owens/Guerra. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2015 15:25:13 GMT -5
Disregarding the part about ranking and tiers, just to be clear here, Kopech was suspended for testing positive for a banned substance, the primary use of which is to cut weight. If anything, it hurt him as he tried to put weight on and was counterproductive.
Stupid, yes. Enough to cast a shadow over his scouting report and performance? No, not by a longshot, in my opinion. It's not like we don't know what precisely he tested positive for.
|
|
|
|
Post by jondrink on Aug 27, 2015 16:02:01 GMT -5
I too feel it was an innocent mistake. Kid is a stud. Throws 98-101 fluidly like not a lot of effort. Ball flys out of his hands good kid good family just made a mistake I'm sure he'll learn from it. IMO of course. I think he will really be a guy we will all want to succeed.
|
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2015 16:47:59 GMT -5
Disregarding the part about ranking and tiers, just to be clear here, Kopech was suspended for testing positive for a banned substance, the primary use of which is to cut weight. If anything, it hurt him as he tried to put weight on and was counterproductive. Stupid, yes. Enough to cast a shadow over his scouting report and performance? No, not by a longshot, in my opinion. It's not like we don't know what precisely he tested positive for. I liken this to a college football player who tests positive for Marijuana. Everyone knows many/most players smoke Marijuana and nobody actually cares. But 'testing positive' is something that the most driven players don't do because they find out when tests are coming and they place their success in sport above all else and avoid any chances they might get caught. Testing positive is some combination of stupid/lazy - neither of which is good for 'character makeup'. He probably didn't bother reading what was on the bottle of whatever he took, which would fall under the stupid/lazy section. He's a young guy and hopefully will learn from this, but you have to feel better about the young guy who reads the bottle first. (it should be noted that I, and most of us on this forum likely fell into the stupid/lazy group when we were in college) If we were to rank makeup on the 20(Denney)/80(Xander) scale - I think he'd come in around a 40 present value. |
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2015 16:49:25 GMT -5
I like that we don't have a consensus #1 I'll add that for the brass, the only unanimous rankings were the #3 and #9 spots. Perhaps that telegraphs some things. Three voters agreed on prospects 1, 2, 8, and 10. and say #3 is Benni and #9 is Koepech. |
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Aug 28, 2015 9:18:17 GMT -5
The trouble is that most of the studs are in low A. Do we have to wait until 2018 to have a decent team?
|
|
|
|
Post by malynn19 on Aug 28, 2015 10:57:37 GMT -5
I'm a very optimistic person, so I think we have a handful of superstars in the making. But since I'm also a realist, I also know that this is not always the case. So I'm going to go by what I've seen/read and the fact that the Red Sox have the best farm system in baseball.
Tier 1:
Devers - Moncada is 2 years older than this young man. I would love to see Devers playing in Greenville at 20. That Swing.
Moncada - The whole package is there, he needs to be challenge.
Benitendi - Same as above - Both players should be in Portland.
Espinoza - GCL stats or not, the fact that every scout comes away impressed, says it all.
Tier 2:
Owens - I love Owens, I see him as a #2. Velocity or not, hitters have never been able to square up on his stuff.
Johnson - He can pitch, good curveball, but the rest of his stuff is subpar. His success depends on his ability to hit corners.
Guerra - His glove will get him to the Bigs, now if his hitting holds up we may have a star in the making.
Kopech - My 2nd fav pitcher in our system, I love his mechanics, and stuff.
Tier 3:
Travis - Has everything but the power, that's why he is not rated higher.
Chavis - Has power but is lacking everything else, and that's why he's not rated higher. Wish I could combine him with S. Travis
Allen - From what I seen this kid seems very advance for his age, his mechanics are nearly perfect and he is very cocky/confident.
Tier 4:
Shaw - I wish Shaw would end up with 15-20 Bombs before the year is over. That would prove to the FO he belongs, I'm a bit skeptical but I'm not giving up.
Light - Great Splitter, everyone raves about it. Awesome velocity on his FB, but his lack of movement and control will need to be addressed. Maybe by next year he will be our closer or a set up.
Margot - I am not very high on Margot, I think he was promoted to Portland too soon. I hope he proves me wrong, in fact I hope that any prospect we left out proves us all wrong.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 28, 2015 11:32:18 GMT -5
Ehh, I'm not sure how Margot could be in a "4th tier" with the likes of Pat Light just because he's put up pedestrian numbers in a SSS yet being very age advanced for the level. Pat light is 4 years older and getting lit up just one level higher.
I can see someone making the argument that perhaps he's overvalued...but he's a top 5 prospect in anyones' system easily.
|
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Aug 28, 2015 11:50:09 GMT -5
I have to have Owens above Benintendi and Espinosa. The latter is too far away still, and the latter hasn't faced appropriate competition. Whereas Owens has DONE IT on the biggest stage. My top ten:
Devers
Moncada
Owens
Johnson
Espinoza
Benintendi
Shaw
Margot
Guerra
Kopech
|
|
|
|
Post by malynn19 on Aug 28, 2015 12:33:06 GMT -5
Ehh, I'm not sure how Margot could be in a "4th tier" with the likes of Pat Light just because he's put up pedestrian numbers in a SSS yet being very age advanced for the level. Pat light is 4 years older and getting lit up just one level higher. I can see someone making the argument that perhaps he's overvalued...but he's a top 5 prospect in anyones' system easily. Like I said before, I am not too high on Margot, even before promotion. But Light has the tools (see above) to be a closer. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2015 12:49:12 GMT -5
I don't get it. Margot's tools give him an extremely high floor as far as prospects go. Even if you think he's overrated overall, the glove and speed are a pretty sure thing, way more sure than several you have above him.
|
|
|
|
Post by adamchristiangregory on Aug 28, 2015 12:54:03 GMT -5
I agree with most of what is posted above, but I do think there is a tendency to over-value recent results (both in the lower levels and in the Majors, I mean was everyone soooooo wrong about Shaw that suddenly he's a top 100 prospect. He's 25 years old and I'm rooting for him, but no one in their right mind can think this is sustainable. Look no further than the Junior Lake's of the world. Guys get hot, it's baseball).
With that said, my only other grip with player evaluations is Moncada's upside only being a 7, if he's not an 8 who is? The guy has 'potentially' five plus tools, some here are comparing him to Mike Trout (albeit the most optimistic of us). I don't have the splits but he's got to be hitting well over .300 since the all-star break, with power speed. Sure his defense has been lacking, but he's got the athleticism to play almost anywhere, and it's still early enough to expect to see major development in that part of his game. With that in mind He's a clear cut number one for me. The only other departure from many of these lists is the placement of Espinoza. I love Espinoza day as much as the next guy, but he's in the GCL, he's yet to pitch longer than 4 innings, and is more hype than substance at this point. Owens and Johnson both dominated lower competition, I think Espinoza will have his place atop these rankings in due time, but lets see what he looks like against fiercer competition over longer outings.
1. Moncada
2. Devers
3. Margot
4. Benintendi
5. Owens
6. Johnson
7. Espinoza
8. Guerra
9. Kopech
10. Travis (AA Travis, not shaw travis)
|
|
|
|
Post by wskeleton76 on Aug 28, 2015 13:09:00 GMT -5
Margot is both plus CF and plus baserunner at least. His swing is so quick that he may be above average hitter in some day. Sure, his performance at the plate this year is a disappointment. But there are enough reasons why scouts still love him.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 28, 2015 13:15:34 GMT -5
Ehh, I'm not sure how Margot could be in a "4th tier" with the likes of Pat Light just because he's put up pedestrian numbers in a SSS yet being very age advanced for the level. Pat light is 4 years older and getting lit up just one level higher. I can see someone making the argument that perhaps he's overvalued...but he's a top 5 prospect in anyones' system easily. Like I said before, I am not too high on Margot, even before promotion. But Light has the tools (see above) to be a closer. If we were talking about "tools" I'd think you'd be pretty high on Margot. Here is a kid who has average to better tools across the board. If Light fit the equivalent profile for a pitcher we would be talking about a #2 #3 pitcher not guy who is a reliever who maybe becomes a closer if everything breaks right. Hey to each their own, you can be as high low on whoever you want. I just don't see how Margot has done anything to drop him down into that tier of prospectidum. |
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Aug 28, 2015 13:34:24 GMT -5
I agree with most of what is posted above, but I do think there is a tendency to over-value recent results (both in the lower levels and in the Majors, I mean was everyone soooooo wrong about Shaw that suddenly he's a top 100 prospect. He's 25 years old and I'm rooting for him, but no one in their right mind can think this is sustainable. Look no further than the Junior Lake's of the world. Guys get hot, it's baseball). With that said, my only other grip with player evaluations is Moncada's upside only being a 7, if he's not an 8 who is? The guy has 'potentially' five plus tools, some here are comparing him to Mike Trout (albeit the most optimistic of us). I don't have the splits but he's got to be hitting well over .300 since the all-star break, with power speed. Sure his defense has been lacking, but he's got the athleticism to play almost anywhere, and it's still early enough to expect to see major development in that part of his game. With that in mind He's a clear cut number one for me. The only other departure from many of these lists is the placement of Espinoza. I love Espinoza day as much as the next guy, but he's in the GCL, he's yet to pitch longer than 4 innings, and is more hype than substance at this point. Owens and Johnson both dominated lower competition, I think Espinoza will have his place atop these rankings in due time, but lets see what he looks like against fiercer competition over longer outings. 1. Moncada 2. Devers 3. Margot 4. Benintendi 5. Owens 6. Johnson 7. Espinoza 8. Guerra 9. Kopech 10. Travis (AA Travis, not shaw travis) I've been wondering just how talented a player has to be to attain an "8" rating as well. Moncada has to be that guy; wasn't he signed to be? Perhaps if he was a shortstop. |
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 28, 2015 13:57:35 GMT -5
Devers
Moncada
Margot
Espinoza
Owens
Benintendi
Johnson
Guerra
Kopech
Sam Travis.
|
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2015 14:00:18 GMT -5
Espinoza has an 8 ceiling here.
|
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 28, 2015 14:29:31 GMT -5
Tier 1: Yoan Moncada 4-8 (7) Tier 2: Andrew Benintendi 3-7 (6) Rafael Devers 3-7 (6) Anderson Espinoza 2-8 (6) Manual Margot 3-7 (6) Henry Owens 3-7 (6) Tier 3: Javier Guerra 2-7 (5) Brian Johnson 4-6 (5) Michael Kopech 2-7 (5) Tier 4: Sam Travis 3-6 (4) Michael Chavis 2-7 (4) Travis Shaw 3-5 (4) Deven Marrero 3-5 (4) Tier 5: Logan Allen 2-6 (3) Nick Longhi 2-6 (3) Mauricio Dubon 2-5 (3) Marco Hernandez 2-5 (3) Yoan Aybar 2-6 (3) Pat Light 2-6 (3) Try Ball 2-6 (3) Expanded to the top 20, made a few tweaks, and added grades. |
|
|
|
Post by malynn19 on Aug 28, 2015 15:01:00 GMT -5
Like I said before, I am not too high on Margot, even before promotion. But Light has the tools (see above) to be a closer. If we were talking about "tools" I'd think you'd be pretty high on Margot. Here is a kid who has average to better tools across the board. If Light fit the equivalent profile for a pitcher we would be talking about a #2 #3 pitcher not guy who is a reliever who maybe becomes a closer if everything breaks right. Hey to each their own, you can be as high low on whoever you want. I just don't see how Margot has done anything to drop him down into that tier of prospectidum. Only because I don't have him as high as others does not mean I dislike the kid or wish for him to fail to prove my point, as I have seen others do. As long as he is wearing a Red Sox uniform (Minors/Majors) I will cheer for him and anyone else to succeed. |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 20:21:26 GMT -5
I like that we don't have a consensus #1 I'll add that for the brass, the only unanimous rankings were the #3 and #9 spots. Perhaps that telegraphs some things. Three voters agreed on prospects 1, 2, 8, and 10. Hmm. I think Moncada, Benintendi, Johnson, and Travis fit your last statement, but I don't see Benintendi passing Devers (and I'm not sure that Devers versus Espinoza would ever be unanimous). You may have miscounted and meant Moncada, Devers, Johnson, and Travis or Chavis (each of whom I think got 2 each), in which case Espinoza over Benintendi as unanimous seems barely credible (as does the other way around, frankly). So my guess: 1. Moncada 2. Devers 3. Espinoza 4. Benintendi 5. Margot 6. Owens 7. Guerra 8. Johnson 9. Kopech 10. Travis I actually think that beyond about 15, the system is thinner than it has been in years. But the current top 8 is outrageous, even without considering that we've graduated Bogaerts, Betts, Vazquez, Bradley, Swihart, Rodriguez, Castillo (not that he was ever counted, but it's still a talent addition), Holt, and Wright in the last two years. |
|
|
|
Post by jondrink on Aug 29, 2015 7:03:31 GMT -5
MONCADA
DEVERS
ESPINOSA
BENETENDI
MARGOT
OWENS
GUERRA
JOHNSON
KOPECH
SAM TRAVIS
TRAVIS SHAW
MARRERO
HERNANDEZ
CHAVIS
LONGHI
LIGHT
DUBON
BALL
STANKEWICZ or BUTTREY
|
|
|
