September Rankings Discussion

This is something that has come up for me the past 2 or 3 months, but I also think it's the phenomenon you describe in your last sentence that causes it, in part. Consider, say Wendell Rijo. Among the youngest players at the level, not excelling but holding his own. Couldn't you see him around 10-12 most years?

Another phenomenon is how some guys, like Coyle and Cecchini, have completely fallen off the map. I can't remember guys plummeting together the way they have.

And the other point is that a few of the guys in that second 10 are there based on potential, but statistically aren't backing it up. Hard to get excited about Chavis and Ball based solely on the stat lines. But if you've seen a Chavis BP, and have seen him in-game where it's pretty obvious he's pressing, you know why he needs to stay in the top 15. (Related note: I think I'm getting Ball in Potomac next weekend if the rotation holds, so looking forward to seeing what the heck his deal is.)

Coyle can be attributed to injuries, IMO.  Cecchini has not answered the big question about lack of power in the 2nd half of 2013 in AA and I think he tried to change his swing to compensate which screwed up what he did well.  There just aren't many .100 ISO guys without speed or a good k-rate that are going to do well in the majors, because pitchers won't be afraid to throw strikes to them.

Yeah, I thought a little more about that after I wrote it down and started to be more convinced of the same point ... Rijo's a good example. Mauricio Dubon's another good counter-point. Some years, we'd be trying to talk ourselves into him being a legit top prospect, but I can't remember the last time he was mentioned. Plus you've got a few of the ideal kind of 15-25 guys in folks like Logan Allen or Yoan Aybar, talented young guys who could move up.

I think the AA-AAA depth got hollowed out pretty quickly, though. Partially because the cream of it is now in Boston and partially because the second tier didn't progress much (in the case of Marrero or Escobar) or just completely cratered (Cecchini and to a lesser extent Coyle).

In the end, though, I think the general tendency to rate farm systems on their top 10 or so is actually probably a good way to think of it. Those are the guys who are going to make a difference at the major league level, by and large.

Ball in Potomac next weekend? Which day? Maybe I'll take my boys down there ...

Judging from how frequently even I myself have changed my own personal rankings, I think a few things are clear (or maybe they aren't, given frequency of change).

The top 5 and top 8 are pretty much set in stone.
Top 5: Some ordering of Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Espinoza, and Margot.
Top 8: Add Owens, Johnson, Guerra to above.

My guess at the site's top 10 rankings, given Chris' clues:
1. Moncada
2. Devers
3. Margot
4. Benintendi
5. Espinoza
6. Guerra
7. Owens
8. Johnson
9. Kopech
10. Travis

Excited for the release. Its been a great season to be a Soxprospects fan.

I'll give 2-1 odds that Moncada graduates before Benintendi.

I think you could already have that argument. While Devers and Moncada would be the majority preference, there's an legitimate argument for Espinoza based on ceiling and age advancement, and Benintendi based on his overall game and chance to move quickly.


I'll take a crack at guessing the new rankings, doesn't change what I posted mine were, because I know everyone is interested in my rankings.

I'm pretty sure Moncada will be our new #1 when the rankings changes come out. I believe that is the third month in a row that we had a new #1 in the system. Dudes on fire and a statistical slump for Devers might be enough to sway a split SP staff.

For #3 being unanimous, it's kind of a tough clue. National rankings would suggest it is Margot, but Benintendi or Espinoza have the hype behind them to jump to third. Since it's unanimous I'm guessing it has to be Margot, (Espinoza is my second guess). #9 being unanimous is like guessing if Hillary was going to run for president. It's obviously Kopech.

Espinoza is favored over Benintendi in August by the staff, so I'm guessing that holds, as both of them jump up a tier. Owens jumps Johnson on a split decision based on Owen's MLB performance and Johnson's injury. What's hard to figure out is if Guerra beats or splits these pitchers. 6-8 is the toughest part of the guess IMO, and I just flipped Guerra into 7th spot last minute.

So my guess of the new SP rankings.

1. Moncada
2. Devers
3. Margot
4. Espinoza
5. Benintendi
6. Owens (leaps Johnson after staff was split on him)
7. Guerra
8. Johnson
9. Kopech
10. Guessing Travis holds, unless Shaw takes the spot

Wow, can't help but notice Cecchini and Coyle down to 32 and 43. Epic collapse.

Details

(Click above to see the spreadsheet.)

Summary:

• Yoan Moncada is the new number 1, up from 2 last month.  His ceiling is now maxed at 8.
• Rafael Devers, first last week, is now 2nd.
• Henry Owens moved up from 5 to 4 in spite of his ceiling going the other way from 7 to 6.
• A rarely mentioned prospect, Anderson Espinoza, has moved up to 5.  He was 7th last month.
• Andrew Benintendi, followed Espinoza, moving up from 8 to 6.  
• Javier Guerra slipped from 6 to 7.
• Brian Johnson fell from 4 to 8.
• Travis Shaw went from 14 to 12 and his grade from 3 to 4.
• Trey Ball went the other way, down 2 to 12 from 14.
• Nick Longhi jumped from 19 to 15.
• Teddy Stankiewicz up from 20 to 18.
• Pat Light just barely stayed in the top 20, falling by 5 from 15 last month.
• Logan Allen, ranked 35 after the draft and 28 last month moved up another 6 spots to 22.
• Luis Alexander Basabe is up from 30 to 23.
• Willams Jerez dropped from 23 to 26.
• Heath Hembree up from 34 to 27.
• Jonathan Aro down 3 landing at 28.
• Dayan Diaz up from 33 to 29.
• Noe Ramirez up from 35 to 31
• Garin Cecchini dropped another 5 and is now at # 32.  In April he was in the top 10.
• Jalen Beeks up from 41 to 35.
• Austin Rei at 37, down 11.  That's down 16 since the first post draft ranking.
• Ben Taylor, first ranked last month at # 45, rose to 38.
• Ranked for the first time is Austin Glorius at 41.  (IMO he deserves a top 10 ranking just for his name!)
• Sean Coyle is down to 43 from 37 and from 15 at the end of April.
• Tate Matheny at 48, down 10.
• Roniel Raudes is ranked for the first time at 51.
• # 54 is Jake Cosart, down from 44 last month and 24 on 4/30.
• Simon Mercedes fell from 47 to 56.
• Kyri Washington fell from 50 to 58.
• Jeremy Rivera and Jorge Marban both made the top 60 for the first time in the last two spots.
• Falling out of the top 60 this month are: 
• Tzu-Wei Lin (from 55). (3 years ago he was # 22.)
• Jagger Rusconi (56)
• Gerson Bautista (57)
• Karsten Whitsen (59)

[/ul]

Had the same reaction here. Nice job pointing that out, Brain Toast.

couldn't agree more with the Owens jump (though I can tell some don't). He has really shown that the early-season results were him fooling around with his pitch mix.

I also don't feel the system is quite as deep as it has been. Very few surprise guys have come in to fill the 12-25 range (and maybe it's partly that some of those first page guys are falling, rather than ascending the rankings), while we've graduated a good group of players the last two years, and that might get worse with Shaw and Owens possibly graduating. Still, a strong system for sure, and lots of young talent in the majors.

One minor note: Still slightly surprised with Margot and Guerra. Maybe this is a discussion for the main page (and I think it's been made there) but if the rest of the top 6 have first division starter makeup, it just seems like Margot has fallen off a touch from what Bradley and Betts did at AA/AAA. And Guerra has legit power, but given his lack of scouting pedigree, and limited track record, I can't put him in my own top eight. I mean, Shaw has done basically the same thing this year, but at the highest level. Just my 2 cents (and I guess I've already given them once on the previous page).

Two guys I'm curious about. That they are so peripheral should imply how solid these rankings are. Great job, guys.

Stankiewicz is still relatively high, stuff isn't plus and his stats are fairly pedestrian. What keeps him so high?

Almonte isn't even ranked. Young for Lowell, high walks but no one is hitting him. I know we've seen this before (Sergio Gomez comes to mind), but was surprised he wasn't in the top 60.

All that said, there are several guys to dream on (relatively speaking) 40-60. To me, that might be more impressive then the loaded top 10. 15 years ago we'd be talking up kids like Rei, Lakins, Steen, Brakeman, Raudes, Cosart. This is the machine Theo spoke of building when he took over as GM.