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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2015 15:56:23 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Sept 3, 2015 10:51:39 GMT -5
I appreciate the work on this but I'm fairly convinced the change in his game is completely linked to the new Sanchez filling in.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 5, 2015 8:14:03 GMT -5
This is an important question for the offseason, for sure. Is this stretch for real, or is it just a particularly lucky stretch of BABIP/strand rate/etc? Well, to what extent is it real; I think it's extremely likely that at least some portion of it is improvement.
Kelly+prospects could be an intriguing package for a starter to a team that believed Kelly "figured it out," depending on the prospects, of course.
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Post by thegoo13 on Sept 5, 2015 10:13:04 GMT -5
This is an important question for the offseason, for sure. Is this stretch for real, or is it just a particularly lucky stretch of BABIP/strand rate/etc? Well, to what extent is it real; I think it's extremely likely that at least some portion of it is improvement. Kelly+prospects could be an intriguing package for a starter to a team that believed Kelly "figured it out," depending on the prospects, of course. Would love it if the Sox could dump Kelly this offseason. Love Margot and Guerra but they seem to be the most logical surplus prospects we have who also should have a lot of value. Wonder if those 3 could bring back a plus young pitcher?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 5, 2015 10:45:25 GMT -5
This is an important question for the offseason, for sure. Is this stretch for real, or is it just a particularly lucky stretch of BABIP/strand rate/etc? Well, to what extent is it real; I think it's extremely likely that at least some portion of it is improvement. Kelly+prospects could be an intriguing package for a starter to a team that believed Kelly "figured it out," depending on the prospects, of course.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 5, 2015 10:54:07 GMT -5
Fortunately, we have another several games to chart Kelly's progression. The Sox need at least one young, cost controlled flamethrower with excellent secondary pitches who can carry the team to wins. Based on the continuing evolution of Joe Kelly, the Sox may alrrady have one. He did not have his best stuff last night, and neither did the defense, but he managed to get thru 6 while bringing down his ERA and other stats. After his trip to AAA and the post ASB march of youth, he lncreasimgly taken on the look of a valuable keeper.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 19, 2015 16:37:24 GMT -5
So what does everyone think about Joe Kelly? If you buy into Peter Gammons and his quotes, he's basically said the Sox were very happy with the work Brian Bannister & Co did with Carl Willis around the halfway point last year in analyzing and getting Porcello, Ross, and Kelly back on track (pitch type, sequence, mechanics, etc.)
So, I don't think any of us are super worried about Porcello or Ross, but has anyone looked into Joe Kelly's 8 game stretch and seen anything that represents a vastly different approach or results? Obviously the runs are down, strikeouts are a bit up, and the walks are down, but 8 games is still a pretty small sample.
What's everyone's thoughts?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 19, 2015 16:38:53 GMT -5
He's got great stuff.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 19, 2015 17:23:43 GMT -5
I'm optimistic that he can pitch well enough to justify being the last guy in the rotation.
I am not optimistic that his 8-0 stretch represents a change in his talent level. The peripherals don't appear to tell any story. One theory I saw on JABO was that he is using his pitches differently (increased slider and changeup usage instead of trying to be a sinkerballer) and that he's getting better results that way that are imperceptible in his peripherals. Not buying it yet though.
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Post by jmei on Dec 19, 2015 18:19:39 GMT -5
Combined the new thread with an older thread.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 19, 2015 19:50:11 GMT -5
Combined the new thread with an older thread. And shaming me with a reminder that I have a spreadsheet filled with interesting data that I've never shared! Even though I started this thread for that specific purpose. The pathetic thing is that I've got another one, on Clay Buchholz, that I cooked up about a week ago. I think I want to put that up in the next week or so ... and then maybe revisit the Kelly data. He absolutely had a new approach at the end of last year, throwing the FB less often than he ever had, at any point in his career, and changing his offspeed pitch mix as well. I got carried away, I think, delving too deep (not unlike the Dwarves in Khazad-Dum) into the analysis of the changing patterns, and so I put the analysis aside when it got too complex. Maybe when I look at it again, I'll see where I should go with it next.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 20, 2015 12:22:42 GMT -5
Yes please. Such information would be a great Christmas present.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 20, 2015 12:57:30 GMT -5
He is the siren song of bad pitchers. You want to get rid of him because he sort of sucks, but that voice keeps chanting "he has greeeeeeat stuff", "he is a greeeeeeat teammate", "he has a hooooot wife".
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 20, 2015 13:59:48 GMT -5
You guys won't be laughing when he wins the CY Young.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 20, 2015 14:12:19 GMT -5
He is the siren song of bad pitchers. You want to get rid of him because he sort of sucks, but that voice keeps chanting "he has greeeeeeat stuff", "he is a greeeeeeat teammate", "he has a hooooot wife". ...he also has a 97+ mph heater, something that makes many on this site salivate - in other pitchers that is. That disconnect doesn't appear to be shared by Dombrowski, however, so he's probably not going anywhere, and he's likely to be a stater.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 20, 2015 14:19:23 GMT -5
They're not exactly going to get much for him. He's a high upside back end of the rotation guy, who has mid to top end of the rotation stuff. If he flames out, they have plenty of depth. He's going to get every chance possible because of his "stuff" and he's likely the 5th starter in this rotation
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Post by jmei on Dec 20, 2015 18:01:27 GMT -5
I think he's a 4th/5th starter type. That's the kind of player he's been his whole career, and next year will be his age-28 season, so significant improvement would certainly be in the realm of improbable outcomes. I'm not sure how much improvement in his command and secondary pitches you can expect at this point in his career.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 21, 2015 3:34:23 GMT -5
I think he's a 4th/5th starter type. That's the kind of player he's been his whole career, and next year will be his age-28 season, so significant improvement would certainly be in the realm of improbable outcomes. I'm not sure how much improvement in his command and secondary pitches you can expect at this point in his career. Cliff Lee averaged 1.1 bWAR / 30 GS from ages 25 to 28, and 6.0 from 29 to 34. Randy Johnson averaged 1.8 from ages 24 to 28, and 7.0 from 29 to 41. Curt Schilling averaged 4.0 from ages 25 to 28, and 6.4 from 29 to 37. John Tudor averaged 3.1 from ages 25 to 30 and 4.8 from 31 to 34. Those are just the first four guys I could think of. While late blossoming hitters like Jose Bautista are quite rare, I think it's much more common for pitchers. Corey Kluber averaged 0.7 bWAR 30 / GS through age 27 and 5.3 at 28 and 29. But we're not asking that sort of breakout from Kelly, even if we're dreaming on it. He's averaged 1.7 (counting each 6 IP of relief as a virtual start), which is an average #4. To get to an average #3, he needs to get to 2.4 or 2.5. When I tried my best to take the air out of his finish to last year, that's what I came up with. And of course, maybe I took too much air out. Miley was 2.3 last year, but with a SIERA of a guy with about a 1.6, and is 1.8 over his career. Kelly obviously has about 0.5 WAR of downside risk, but he projects to be better and has a lot more than 0.5 WAR of upside.
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Post by tonyc on Dec 21, 2015 10:21:27 GMT -5
Very much agree Eric, and there are many other late blooming pitchers over the decades. Also, it is not an improvement of command and secondary pitches needed, primarily, but improvement of sequencing, which is well within his reach and why he showed that improvement.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 21, 2015 11:34:50 GMT -5
If his starts over the last two months are an indicator of his talent and ability to adjust, why wouldn't you want to keep him as your #5 starter? We could do a lot worse.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 21, 2015 18:54:56 GMT -5
Very much agree Eric, and there are many other late blooming pitchers over the decades. Also, it is not an improvement of command and secondary pitches needed, primarily, but improvement of sequencing, which is well within his reach and why he showed that improvement. Trade forum lust object Carlos Carrasco is another. Absolutely atrocious at 24-26, then started figuring it out at 27. Roy Halladay took his lumps early, too. I don't recall how old he was at his breakout, but he did get sent down to the minors after putting up an ERA near 10 in his early/mid-20s. I'm optimistic that Kelly will improve to 2a/3-quality, at least for a few years. He has relatively low mileage on his arm given his college RP history. He may just be a late bloomer. That he's averaging 95-96 at age 27 is unusual in that he hasn't lost any velocity. Most pitchers' velocity peaks in their early-20s and drops slightly at 25-26, then over time slowly into their early 30s. Kelly still has considerable upside, and could very easily learn a cutter or improve his arsenal in other ways (less velo with better command?) that will allow him to pitch more deeply into games and more effectively overall.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 21, 2015 18:59:13 GMT -5
I also think Kelly and Porcello, in particular, will experience significant benefits from the return of Christian Vazquez. Both seen to be pitchers who really need a strong catcher to kind of tell them what to do, Crash Davis to Nuke Laloosh style. If Vazquez can hit .240/.300/.350, he's going to be huge for the team.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 21, 2015 20:25:07 GMT -5
I also think Kelly and Porcello, in particular, will experience significant benefits from the return of Christian Vazquez. Both seen to be pitchers who really need a strong catcher to kind of tell them what to do, Crash Davis to Nuke Laloosh style. If Vazquez can hit .240/.300/.350, he's going to be huge for the team. I agree. I think Vazquez' injury is the biggest reason why Cherington is no longer with us.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 21, 2015 23:59:17 GMT -5
I also think Kelly and Porcello, in particular, will experience significant benefits from the return of Christian Vazquez. Both seen to be pitchers who really need a strong catcher to kind of tell them what to do, Crash Davis to Nuke Laloosh style. If Vazquez can hit .240/.300/.350, he's going to be huge for the team. I agree. I think Vazquez' injury is the biggest reason why Cherington is no longer with us. Totally agree. I think the story of the pitching over the course of the season tells the same tale. Hanigan had a positive effect when he came back, and the pitching also improved when Swihart was the regular, but had had time to adjust to MLB some and his defense started improving. I'm sure some of it was bad luck at the year's start, but it also seemed sequencing and (especially in Porcello's case) pitch selection had a lot to do with the weak first half as well. I'm still nervous about Vazquez's arm, but I think his game management and framing will really make a difference, especially with the improved outfield D and (fingers crossed) maybe a full season of Pedey, a repeat by Bogey, and some semblance of return to defensive normalcy for Panda and Hanley. FWIW, I think there's a fair chance that more of those things happen than not. Add Price as a mentor to Rodriguez/Owens (and maybe Kelly/ Porcello) and as a staff leader/stopper, and the pitching should be vastly better. The bullpen is a strength now, too, particularly if Light, Jerez, or Barnes steps forward. The added depth in both rotation and 'pen should solidify expectations and provide stability that was lacking. Throw Vazquez and a more experienced Swihart in the mix and the staff's general confidence should be markedly better.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 22, 2015 1:24:25 GMT -5
It didn't help that Ramirez had a butcher block out there in left field, that Sandoval forgot his glove in SF for the first two months of the season, or that Napoli turned in the one he'd been using since he came to the Sox. They were also rotating Nava, Vicorino and even Craig in right. Nava doesn't have the foot speed or the arm to play there, Victorino burned through his reserves during the WS campaign and was playing hurt just about all the time, and Craig is no more than adequate and probably worse than that, someone who can't play there on a regular basis. That's before we talk about what they brought to the offense - which we don't want to talk about in public.
It was only after it became apparent to them that Ramirez' was completely lost out there and probably hurt, that they decided to throw the dice. Lo and behold they rolled a seven after calling up Bradley and Castillo. There had been a lot of calls on this board for just that, but it's a few voices in the Internet wilderness after all. Buccholz and Porcello probably needed post-season counseling after what they'd gone through to start the season. I'd also add that shine on guys like Kelly and Hill in the last month was the reflected glow from a vastly improved defensive alignment. It really does matter and it cost them wins early on and put the season on ice quickly.
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