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pd
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Posts: 251
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Post by pd on May 10, 2016 9:55:12 GMT -5
Are we really going to assume this is true because Nick Cafardo or someone said it? Are you really going to pretend like it's hard to believe? I mean, they didn't give Rusney Castillo 75m because they had confidence in Jackie Bradley. Being believable and being true are different things.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,850
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 10, 2016 10:13:46 GMT -5
Also worth nothing as we fawn over JBJ, this year he's continued to look like he doesn't have to be platooned. .286/.360/.429 versus LHP, 24.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, 0% HR/FB .307/.351/.580 versus RHP, 24.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 20% HR/FB The overall production has been stronger against RHP where ALL of his home runs have come but its not like he's in any way been overmatched by lefties and the peripherals make it look like the gap between the two should narrow. All of which makes Chris Young even a little more useless than we thought - if that's possible.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,524
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Post by radiohix on May 10, 2016 10:30:11 GMT -5
Also worth nothing as we fawn over JBJ, this year he's continued to look like he doesn't have to be platooned. .286/.360/.429 versus LHP, 24.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, 0% HR/FB .307/.351/.580 versus RHP, 24.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 20% HR/FB The overall production has been stronger against RHP where ALL of his home runs have come but its not like he's in any way been overmatched by lefties and the peripherals make it look like the gap between the two should narrow. All of which makes Chris Young even a little more useless than we thought - if that's possible. Chris Young vs LHP so far: .250/.400/.500 How can this be called "useless"? He was brought to hit lefties and he's ust doing that.
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Post by okin15 on May 10, 2016 10:45:15 GMT -5
I love when people start whining that our insurance policies are either not being used (good thing) or being used for things they weren't expected for, but still being useful (also a good thing). I mean, we spent a small amount of cash (and a roster spot) to protect against JBJ being a platoon player, OR an injury to any OF, AND ineffectiveness by our expected LF, AND cause you do need guys who are willing to sit on the bench and able to still produce (it's a 25-man roster after all).
Young is doing several of those things. The fact that our mercurial 3rd year CF is playing better than expected (or at least better than the worst case option) is a good thing, but it doesn't diminish the potential value of the backups.
I mean, I know that they're playing good right now, and outside of our #'s 1 and 2 starters stinking up the joint, there's literally nothing else to complain about, so I give it a pass, but seriously, JBJ being good isn't a bad thing.
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Post by bosox89 on May 10, 2016 10:49:31 GMT -5
All of which makes Chris Young even a little more useless than we thought - if that's possible. Chris Young vs LHP so far: .250/.400/.500 How can this be called "useless"? He was brought to hit lefties and he's ust doing that. To be fair there are multiple bloop doubles in there that should have been caught, skew's that line a bit considering the sample size.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,524
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Post by radiohix on May 10, 2016 11:04:01 GMT -5
Chris Young vs LHP so far: .250/.400/.500 How can this be called "useless"? He was brought to hit lefties and he's ust doing that. To be fair there are multiple bloop doubles in there that should have been caught, skew's that line a bit considering the sample size. How about career line .263/.363/.475? My point is how can you call a guy who was bought to hit LHP and has hit them in SSS "useless"?
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Post by jchang on May 10, 2016 11:15:06 GMT -5
I really think it is time to archive this thread, starting a new one, perhaps JBJ 1st ballot HOFer or merely a perennial AS? of course JBJ is not untouchable! give us a definite 1 pitcher with 3 yr ab left, we'll throw in panda (but no cash) to boot.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 10, 2016 11:23:01 GMT -5
Chris Young vs LHP so far: .250/.400/.500 How can this be called "useless"? He was brought to hit lefties and he's ust doing that. To be fair there are multiple bloop doubles in there that should have been caught, skew's that line a bit considering the sample size. I like the fact that he's just "there". Like a break glass in case of emergency. Had a nice rope last night that Coco caught over his shoulder @ the base of the CF wall. Also has steady D.
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Post by blizzards39 on May 10, 2016 11:44:49 GMT -5
Who would have thought it would be JBJs fielding that would be holding him back this season. Not that he has been bad, but the metrics defiantly don't like him.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,850
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 10, 2016 12:28:53 GMT -5
To be fair there are multiple bloop doubles in there that should have been caught, skew's that line a bit considering the sample size. How about career line .263/.363/.475? My point is how can you call a guy who was bought to hit LHP and has hit them in SSS "useless"? Well, this year's numbers (which someone cited) are in all of 20 PAs. And his ability to hit RHP counts toward his value, too, and he's got a .278 OPS there in a - all together now - SSS. I was hoping they'd get a LH OF bat to platoon with Castillo, who's .313/.343/.448 in 102 PAs against LHP in his career and who handled LF pretty well last year in a SSS. Having a $10 million guy (who unlike Allen Craig counts against the tax cap) playing in AAA isn't a great use of resources. Also, note that last year was the first year in a few that Chris Young was excellent against LHP. He had a ghastly .561 OPS against them in 2014 and an averageish .712 against them in 2013. I didn't hate the signing but it's not the direction I thought they'd go. And yes, I'm aware that Castillo has struggled in Pawtucket.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 10, 2016 12:55:12 GMT -5
I like: Bogaerts Bradley Pedroia Ortiz Betts Shaw Ramirez Holt Vazquez It's perfectly balanced, it bunches the high OBP guys where they belong, stretches the power out, gives JBJ more at-bats (which you'd hope for a guy OPSing .900). If (when) Betts and Ramirez start hitting, they can move up/rearrange things. I like your lineup suggestion better than mine. I just saw a stat of JBJ's last 81 games or a half season's worth. Holy crap. He's hitting near .300 with a very high OPS. I know he whiffs a lot, but I didn't have an issue with Mark Bellhorn in the #2 spot, so your idea makes sense. The way he's swinging the bat #2 would make more sense than #7. It's just with JBJ when he goes bad, he goes really bad, and when he goes good, he goes really good. But if the last 81 games is what he's becoming, then #2 in the lineup it is. The other thing I struggle with is the image of Bogaerts being a leadoff hitter and Betts not being one. I still think of Bogaerts as the guy we thought would hit 30 homers per year, but the reality of who he is - is that's he simply a very good hitter with some pop who gets on base at a good rate. Eventually Betts will heat up, though, so while I'd probably keep Betts first and have Bogaerts after Ortiz, I could easily go with your lineup.
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Post by thursty on May 10, 2016 13:06:08 GMT -5
One of the things that has occurred to me when thinking about JBJ is how different he is than what many (if not all) would have projected; certainly, I would never have thought he would profile as a slugger. But in messaging with someone (who is not a Red Sox fan), and getting their take on JBJ, they said, "his data looks like someone who is selling out for power" (and no that's not a pejorative).
It sort of jarred me, and so I looked at a few comps: viz, those who strikeout above MLB average (~ 22%), and have an ISO >= .230
Past Calendar Year (K% | ISO)
Chris Davis 29.4% .295 Chris Carter 29.9% .284 Mike Trout* 23.5% .282 Khris Davis 27.5% .273 Lucas Duda 24.7% .263 JBJ 26.2% .248 Randal Grichuk 29.9% .247 JD Martinez 24.5% .240
* Don't even go there
All of these players are more or less power guys, with Bradley being unique in that his power is more in the form of XBH's than HRs per se.
I remember writing sometime before the 2014 season that surely Bradley could manage a 330 OBP (he sunk to 265), and so if he slugged high 300s that would at least make him playable. And I'll hazard a guess that throughout his pro career, he's been advised to shorten his swing, go deep into counts, make contact, etc. But that didn't work. Instead, he looks like someone who has recognized that he's going to strikeout a lot, but that when he seems something he likes, take a big whack at it - and it's been working.
Now I'm skeptical he can maintain a 240+ ISO going forward, and such an approach likely lends itself to prolonged slumps (as we've seen), but if he can maintain the XBH power going forward, it looks like the Red Sox have something.
I just think it's an interesting case of a player going against type, and finding success
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Post by okin15 on May 10, 2016 14:25:04 GMT -5
One thing to watch with JBJ, if he starts taking his own defense for granted (Shaw recently said, “Everyone knows what he can do defensively, I think that’s a given.") then he may indeed have more mis-cues like the dropped fly ball last night. He honestly missed a LCF fly ball on Saturday as well, although Holt caught it right in front of Bradley, so no one noticed. I'm not saying it's an issue yet, but I hope both Bradley and everyone else realizes how much he has to work at the D in order to keep it at that elite level. We'll also recall the same comment about his arm from him two years ago, so I think he knows, just hope he remembers.
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Post by telson13 on May 11, 2016 0:33:26 GMT -5
One of the things that has occurred to me when thinking about JBJ is how different he is than what many (if not all) would have projected; certainly, I would never have thought he would profile as a slugger. But in messaging with someone (who is not a Red Sox fan), and getting their take on JBJ, they said, "his data looks like someone who is selling out for power" (and no that's not a pejorative). It sort of jarred me, and so I looked at a few comps: viz, those who strikeout above MLB average (~ 22%), and have an ISO >= .230 Past Calendar Year (K% | ISO) Chris Davis 29.4% .295 Chris Carter 29.9% .284 Mike Trout* 23.5% .282 Khris Davis 27.5% .273 Lucas Duda 24.7% .263 JBJ 26.2% .248 Randal Grichuk 29.9% .247 JD Martinez 24.5% .240 * Don't even go there All of these players are more or less power guys, with Bradley being unique in that his power is more in the form of XBH's than HRs per se. I remember writing sometime before the 2014 season that surely Bradley could manage a 330 OBP (he sunk to 265), and so if he slugged high 300s that would at least make him playable. And I'll hazard a guess that throughout his pro career, he's been advised to shorten his swing, go deep into counts, make contact, etc. But that didn't work. Instead, he looks like someone who has recognized that he's going to strikeout a lot, but that when he seems something he likes, take a big whack at it - and it's been working. Now I'm skeptical he can maintain a 240+ ISO going forward, and such an approach likely lends itself to prolonged slumps (as we've seen), but if he can maintain the XBH power going forward, it looks like the Red Sox have something. I just think it's an interesting case of a player going against type, and finding success Funny, I was just thinking that myself (though I didn't do the background research). His ISO this year is creeping towards last year's .249, and while you're right about the 2b/3b, his K rate is down versus last year, about 3% I think. His IsoD is down, too...which would fit with him being more aggressive (and using the whole field more). Not sure what his pitch/AB trend has been. Regardless, if this is who he is over a full season, that's a terrific offensive CF... .300/.350/.550 is pretty impressive, even if it's 35 2b/10 3b/20 HR. Basically, that's peak Johnny Damon with an infinitely better arm but less speed. Still think he should be up near the top of the order. I'm also curious to see if, as he develops his approach, whether the cold streak time diminishes and he develops more consistency. Shaw seems to be doing that since he was recalled from Pawtucket. It's really something else to think of what the offense will be like if Benintendi, Moncada, Devers, and Sam Travis all develop to roughly their median projections or better.
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Post by telson13 on May 11, 2016 0:40:03 GMT -5
I like: Bogaerts Bradley Pedroia Ortiz Betts Shaw Ramirez Holt Vazquez It's perfectly balanced, it bunches the high OBP guys where they belong, stretches the power out, gives JBJ more at-bats (which you'd hope for a guy OPSing .900). If (when) Betts and Ramirez start hitting, they can move up/rearrange things. I like your lineup suggestion better than mine. I just saw a stat of JBJ's last 81 games or a half season's worth. Holy crap. He's hitting near .300 with a very high OPS. I know he whiffs a lot, but I didn't have an issue with Mark Bellhorn in the #2 spot, so your idea makes sense. The way he's swinging the bat #2 would make more sense than #7. It's just with JBJ when he goes bad, he goes really bad, and when he goes good, he goes really good. But if the last 81 games is what he's becoming, then #2 in the lineup it is. The other thing I struggle with is the image of Bogaerts being a leadoff hitter and Betts not being one. I still think of Bogaerts as the guy we thought would hit 30 homers per year, but the reality of who he is - is that's he simply a very good hitter with some pop who gets on base at a good rate. Eventually Betts will heat up, though, so while I'd probably keep Betts first and have Bogaerts after Ortiz, I could easily go with your lineup. Yeah, I think eventually they're going to have to re-shuffle if Betts gets hot, but right now Bogey's hitting and walking more. He's also a terrific baserunner. It's a nice problem to have, for sure. What's going to get interesting is figuring out where to bat Moncada, who whiffs a good amount but has stupid OBPs, XB power, and steals a ton of bases. And then there's Benintendi...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 11, 2016 6:00:58 GMT -5
I like your lineup suggestion better than mine. I just saw a stat of JBJ's last 81 games or a half season's worth. Holy crap. He's hitting near .300 with a very high OPS. I know he whiffs a lot, but I didn't have an issue with Mark Bellhorn in the #2 spot, so your idea makes sense. The way he's swinging the bat #2 would make more sense than #7. It's just with JBJ when he goes bad, he goes really bad, and when he goes good, he goes really good. But if the last 81 games is what he's becoming, then #2 in the lineup it is. The other thing I struggle with is the image of Bogaerts being a leadoff hitter and Betts not being one. I still think of Bogaerts as the guy we thought would hit 30 homers per year, but the reality of who he is - is that's he simply a very good hitter with some pop who gets on base at a good rate. Eventually Betts will heat up, though, so while I'd probably keep Betts first and have Bogaerts after Ortiz, I could easily go with your lineup. Yeah, I think eventually they're going to have to re-shuffle if Betts gets hot, but right now Bogey's hitting and walking more. He's also a terrific baserunner. It's a nice problem to have, for sure. What's going to get interesting is figuring out where to bat Moncada, who whiffs a good amount but has stupid OBPs, XB power, and steals a ton of bases. And then there's Benintendi... And then there's Swihart (not intending to renew the debate). If we're talking about a lineup as being as great as it can be, we'd be turning a blind eye to the fact that right now the catcher's position is a black hole on offense (and yeah, one they probably can afford) while it's a strength defensively. But if you subtract Vazquez or Hanigan from the lineup and replace them with Swihart, then there are zero holes in that lineup (but the defense takes a hit so I'm not advocating for that - right now). I do love Vazquez's defense and think he'll eventually settle into being a so-so hitter (for a catcher), but I don't think his offense will improve much more than that. I think Swihart will hit, not like Buster Posey of course, but I do think he'll be an all-star. I just feel it will be with some other team unfortunately. As far as Moncada goes, he's probably somewhere in the top 3 of the lineup down the road. They'll need him as the Sox soon won't have the comfort of penciling Ortiz into the #3 or #4 spot in the lineup. But since we can dream: Betts RF Bradley CF Moncada 3B Bogaerts SS Benintendi LF Ramirez/Travis DH (while waiting for Devers) Shaw/Travis 1B Swihart C Pedroia 2B
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 11, 2016 8:00:57 GMT -5
Sam Travis has to have a good year this year in Pawt & show some power. If he doesn't he won't stick at 1B. If CV hits at all, he will be an ELITE catcher. A lot has to happen for this line-up. But I still like it, even w/Pedey @ #9.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 11, 2016 12:40:37 GMT -5
Sam Travis has to have a good year this year in Pawt & show some power. If he doesn't he won't stick at 1B. If CV hits at all, he will be an ELITE catcher. A lot has to happen for this line-up. But I still like it, even w/Pedey @ #9. That's why I have Travis more as a possibility and not written in stone. I like his bat and I think he'll ultimately wind up being traded. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Sox throw some money at Encarnacion, especially with Ramirez being serviceable at 1b. I kind of hope they don't, though. I would have thought it was a given Moncada would wind up at 3b, but Shaw is doing a very good job, there so 3b isn't necessarily up for grabs. When Bradley was struggling, I was wondering if Moncada's future was in the OF with Betts and Benintendi, but seeing what Bradley's doing - that August 2015 wasn't a fluke - he's capable of having stretches where he's an excellent offensive performer. And Pedroia is playing like a guy who's not ready to be put out to pasture. So I have no idea where that leaves Moncada. If Travis is struggling and the Sox cannot overreact to losing Ortiz at the DH slot by having to plug an expensive bat in there, I would guess that Shaw, if he continues to do what he's doing, winds up at 1b and Moncada does wind at 3b. I guess Sam Travis might wind up part of a trade package along with Swihart and some others to get a youngish #2 starter at some point this offseason? I do think Vazquez will hit some eventually, although it might not be this year. I still think Swihart will wind up an all-star catcher and a much better bat than Vazquez. If Vazquez doesn't hit at all this year and Hanigan struggles as well they might be able to finagle Swihart back onto the roster as a C-outfielder.
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Post by blizzards39 on May 11, 2016 22:27:31 GMT -5
This dude is on fire. Just looked at his stats during 17 game hitting streak. It's MVP plus type numbers. I realize that JBJ is a streaky guy but the hot times are seaming to be there more than the cold. HES FOR REAL.
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Post by telson13 on May 11, 2016 23:26:22 GMT -5
This dude is on fire. Just looked at his stats during 17 game hitting streak. It's MVP plus type numbers. I realize that JBJ is a streaky guy but the hot times are seaming to be there more than the cold. HES FOR REAL. His full-year projection is pretty ridiculous right now. Let's hope he keeps up the consistency and progress.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 12, 2016 8:05:18 GMT -5
Right because no free agents will be signed and all the lineup slots will filled in house by guys reaching their full potential. That's how things always work right?
Anyways... Sarcasm aside. Why would you change this years lineup AT ALL? Do you want to screw with the top scoring offense in baseball? Messing with it probably has a better chance of making it worse than it does better. A couple reasons why the lineup is so good is because everybody is engaged, not giving away any at bats and the bottom half of the lineup (despite our catchers) is producing.
Why are we going to weaken that? You think moving Hanley from 5th to 7th is going to sit well with him? First, he's producing and second he's a finicky guy. Right now he's doing well on both sides of the ball and has a good attitude. Changing anything there is reckless.
Changing the lineup at all would be over managing. But if you do change it because Betts is struggling and Bradley is on fire then all you do is flip them and leave the rest the same.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 12, 2016 8:56:01 GMT -5
Bradley Jr. produces from the ninth spot in the batting order
Jackie Bradley Jr., hitting in the ninth spot in the batting order, hit two home runs and drove in six runs to help lead the Red Sox to a 13-3 win over the A's on Wednesday night. It marks the second time that Bradley Jr. drove in six runs while batting ninth in his career, having also done that on August 15, 2015 against the Mariners, when he had seven RBIs. Bradley Jr. is the first player since RBIs became an official statistic in 1920 to produce multiple games with six or more RBIs while batting in the ninth position.
Bradley Jr's six runs batted in equaled the number he had in Boston's win on Monday night. Bradley Jr. is the first Red Sox player with two six-RBI games over a three-game span. The only other major-league player to do that over the last 10 seasons is Alfonso Soriano, who had consecutive games with at least six RBIs in August of 2013. espn.go.com/espn/elias?date=20160512
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Post by jchang on May 12, 2016 9:23:21 GMT -5
with the team leading the league in BA by a wide margin, there is as much separation between #1 (.293) and #2 (.278) as there is between #2 and #8 (NL teams are batting surprisingly well, 7 of top 10, there is also a 30 point separation between #1 and #3 in the AL) the only tinkering I would like is to not have JBJ sandwiched between the catcher and Mookie, given that neither catchers are hitting well. I would rather have a block of good hitting, example #2-8 with avg 1 and weak 9, instead of 2-7 + 9 with avg 1 and weak 8.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on May 12, 2016 9:25:20 GMT -5
I'm willing to bet that JBJ is the first person in MLB history to be in the top 7 in the league in OPS as of May 11 or later while batting 9th 70% or more of the time.
Granted, he's only 8th in the league in wRC+ (Trout is 12th), but I think that being the 8th best hitter in the league should get you to at least the 5 spot in your own batting order.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 12, 2016 9:49:07 GMT -5
I'm willing to bet that JBJ is the first person in MLB history to be in the top 7 in the league in OPS as of May 11 or later while batting 9th 70% or more of the time. Granted, he's only 8th in the league in wRC+ (Trout is 12th), but I think that being the 8th best hitter in the league should get you to at least the 5 spot in your own batting order. Maybe Billy Mueller in 03.
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